Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Would be awful hard to go against all the MOdels Consusus here!






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1145. angiest
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Claudette was getting sheared though. 93L has a nice anti-cyclone moving in tandem with the circulation. Once it acquires a LLC, look out.


My recollection is that it was forward speed, and not so much sheer.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
ok the betting and polls begins

What will 93L be at the 8pm TWO

A.(20%)
B.(30%)
C.(40%)
D.(50%)
E.(60%)

I say C 40%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skeptic33:


I'm already looking forward to that... It has been a brutal summer here in Texas. I had been hoping for a TS like Hermaine from last year to pop up in GOM and provide much needed rainfall...

You saw what bone-dry Texas air did to a piddling TS...ate it alive. I'm thinking we need a good-sized Cat 1 coming into the western GOM to have a chance of rain. Don't know whether you were around in 1980. I watched powerful, Gulf-filling Allen approach the coast as the drought, not even as bad as today's, suck water and strength from the storm. What we got caused flooding, with 2 people killed who were told to get off the beach and didn't...but it broke that disastrous drought.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1101 StormwatcherCI- Great satelite pictures. Gustav also put a foot of North Sound into my canal-side garden here in Sav-Newlands...LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting skycycle:
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.7 WEST. FERNANDA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND FERNANDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY
.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

Funny how quickly things can change, up to the previous advisory they didn't have it a hurricane strength and I had almost thought it would break the chain the Pacific season has had so far. It looks much better now for Lady Fernanda though, building a nice spin and a good pressure drop, who knows how much she will intensify...

Also, we have a new TD 7-E - poised to become a hurricane and (maybe) make it 7 hurricanes in a row? Has this ever happened in the Pacific?

Oh wait, actually there was 7 consecutive hurricanes in 1993, which makes that the record. (Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Keoni, Fernanda, Greg, Hilary)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93l finaly is developing a sfc circulation watch out W Carr this cuold be your Cane.
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Quoting angiest:


Not so much track yet, but it still reminds me of Claudette 2003, just moving too fast to get its act together yet.
Claudette was getting sheared though. 93L has a nice anti-cyclone moving in tandem with the circulation. Once it acquires a LLC, look out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ITCZ heating up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1137. angiest
Quoting Levi32:


If it acquires a closed circulation and takes full advantage of the conditions ahead of it, it could have the opportunity to wind up very fast over the hot Caribbean water. We have seen it before. We'll have to see how it's looking between 75W and 80W.

Back in a bit.


Not so much track yet, but it still reminds me of Claudette 2003, just moving too fast to get its act together yet.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.7 WEST. FERNANDA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND FERNANDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY
.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

Funny how quickly things can change, up to the previous advisory they didn't have it a hurricane strength and I had almost thought it would break the chain the Pacific season has had so far. It looks much better now for Lady Fernanda though, building a nice spin and a good pressure drop, who knows how much she will intensify...

Also, we have a new TD 7-E - poised to become a hurricane and (maybe) make it 7 hurricanes in a row? Has this ever happened in the Pacific?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1135. Levi32
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Have you seen the near ideal conditions the SHIPS has been forecasting? It could get ugly....


If it acquires a closed circulation and takes full advantage of the conditions ahead of it, it could have the opportunity to wind up very fast over the hot Caribbean water. We have seen it before. We'll have to see how it's looking between 75W and 80W.

Back in a bit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1134. Matt74
Quoting JNCali:


(Dream casting Alert) I Had a dream back in June about a hurricane or at least the remnants of one sitting on top of Austin this year and dropping lots of rain.. Hopefully it will happen sooner rather than later... 
I would take a cat 1 as long as there was beneficial rain! I'm sure alot of Texans would agree.
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15.3N/70W starting to look interesting!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7805
Well, one thing the GFS has done for the past 6 or 7 runs now is having a strong hurricane hitting the CONUS
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Zits.
The fact that 93L is firing popcorn convection shows how it is already doing better during d-min than the previous days. Let's see if convection can continue to expand. Definitely worthy of code orange in my opinion. NHC will go with 30-40% probably. My personal % is 50%.
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I think 93L should be at 40-60% at 8pm est. Though the NHC will probably just bumped it up 10% to 30%
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7805
Quoting Ameister12:


And so another EPAC system starts rapid intensification.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
1128. Matt74
Quoting JNCali:


(Dream casting Alert) I Had a dream back in June about a hurricane or at least the remnants of one sitting on top of Austin this year and dropping lots of rain.. Hopefully it will happen sooner rather than later... 
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1127. WxLogic
18Z NGP still doesn't like P17L at all... but does look to like 93L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L has really done well today. Should be 30% at next TWO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Based on 93L's performance today, given the circumstances, the system seems poised to become a tropical storm in the western Caribbean as soon as it slows down. Interests along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula should keep a close eye on the situation.
Meh i say Central. LOTS of convection seems to be poping up right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Zits.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Based on 93L's performance today, given the circumstances, the system seems poised to become a tropical storm in the western Caribbean as soon as it slows down. Interests along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula should keep a close eye on the situation.
Have you seen the near ideal conditions the SHIPS has been forecasting? It could get ugly....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1122. Levi32
Based on 93L's performance today, given the circumstances, the system seems poised to become a tropical storm in the western Caribbean as soon as it slows down. Interests along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula should keep a close eye on the situation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The TCHP is especially high in the Yucatan Channel region. This sets up the scenario for one of the worst possible trajectories: a Cape-Verde long track hurricane that enters the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
I can remember the last time a cape storm went through the Leward and through the Yucatan Channel. If anybody can can u post the track of the last one to do so?
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Next 7 days is fine with me but by End of this Month or Early in September I feel that ridge will move or break down and things will Improve, it will get cooler and some will get rain. I have waited this long we can hold on a little longer but 7 days is nothing. Models and forecasts change daily in the weather. The weathermen and the experts are not always right. Texas needs the Jet Stream to move down into this state.


I'm already looking forward to that... It has been a brutal summer here in Texas. I had been hoping for a TS like Hermaine from last year to pop up in GOM and provide much needed rainfall...
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
OMG
Breaking news (if no one knows)
the TCHP are higher that they where in 2005 same date

15 AUG 2011



15 AUG 2005



The TCHP is especially high in the Yucatan Channel region. This sets up the scenario for one of the worst possible trajectories: a Cape-Verde long track hurricane that enters the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1117. ackee
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I say 40%.
I WOULD give a 50% chance it going to hit the magic line of 70W
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1365
Quoting cloudburst2011:




20% and thats being generous
Lol can u explain why you think this? I just want to know looks MUCH better to me then 20.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
OMG
Breaking news (if no one knows)
the TCHP are higher that they where in 2005 same date

15 AUG 2011



15 AUG 2005

That's the 2005 TCHP after Dennis and Emily already tore through that area.
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Something crazy may happen we might get a td tonight.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I agree with 30%.
I say 40%.
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1112. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Could that change?


Are you kidding. The models have already changed since yesterday, and will continue changing over and over again for the next several days. Until the wave actually develops, the models are worth little except for little hints. We should be focusing on the overall pattern, which says that land areas could be threatened by a storm coming from the east. As far as development and how strong it may get if it does develop, we will take that step by step as we always do.
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for 93L I give 30% maybe more like 40%
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1109. ackee
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 93L has the best vorticity, as far as stacking is concerned, than any of the storms we've seen so far this season.

850 MB. Vorticity:



700 MB. Vorticity:



500 MB. Vorticity:


agree I would not be suprise it this make a ramp up into a TD south of jam
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1365
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
What % would you give 93L at 8 PM TWO?

I say 30%.


I agree with 30%.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
OMG
Breaking news (if no one knows)
the TCHP are higher that they where in 2005 same date

15 AUG 2011



15 AUG 2005

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1106. JNCali

Quoting Matt74:
That's what i'm talkin about! Upper Texas coast!

(Dream casting Alert) I Had a dream back in June about a hurricane or at least the remnants of one sitting on top of Austin this year and dropping lots of rain.. Hopefully it will happen sooner rather than later... 
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What % would you give 93L at 8 PM TWO?

I say 30%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1104. ackee
I think models will contiue to be all over the place until something devlops I do think that system that far south if its weak does have higher chance of being a carrb curiser guess we see
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1365
Buoy 42058 out in front of 93L has falling pressure and is currently at 1010mb.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 4.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.8 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 107 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.7 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.0 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 91.4 °F
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1102. aquak9
.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 25825
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Igor and Julia.




Gustav and Hanna. Gustav went from 55 mph in the first image to 145 mph in the second image.
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1100. SLU
Quoting cloudburst2011:



when are you guys going to realize the computers are garbage they have not been right all year long...you guys look at them like they are GOSPEL..


The computer models are excellent at predicting where the next cloudburst in 2011 will likely occur.
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Invest 93L has the best vorticity, as far as stacking is concerned, than any of the storms we've seen so far this season.

850 MB. Vorticity:



700 MB. Vorticity:



500 MB. Vorticity:


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Actually moves North into SC.


Very similar to the 18z runs yesterday.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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