Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Oh sorry Angie, I thought you meant during Claudette's lifetime. Yes her forward speed did plague cyclogenesis. However, eventually shear became a factor too, something I don't see happening with 93L.
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We should take a poll on how many times the 8pm TWO will get posted. I say 5.
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1193. angiest
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
You can always check back in the advisory archives on the NHC site. Here is from a discussion:

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

CLAUDETTE HAS WEAKENED SOME THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS CAUSED THE CENTER TO BECOME INTERMITTENTLY EXPOSED ON THE
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
...AND A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KT.
BASED ON THIS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 55 KT...AND THIS MAY
BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

Link


Actually I was thinking of before she became a TC, as a wave in the eastern and central Caribbean producing tropical storm force winds:

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAS A MESS OF
CONFLICTING SIGNALS TODAY. ON ONE SIDE...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE
WAS THAT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 45 KT FROM TAFB. ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...WHICH MADE SEVERAL PASSES THROUGH THE
APPARENT CENTER AND FOUND NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. JUST AS THE PLANE
WAS LEAVING THE AREA AT 18Z IT FOUND 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
INDICATING A POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND PRESSURES OF
1006-1007 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE WAVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE. THE 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
57 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY RAPID 280/25. CLAUDETTE IS SOUTH OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN A FAST EAST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR ANOTHER 24 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE
STORM WILL APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL WEAKEN
FURTHER AFTER 48 HR AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN U. S.. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING
A RAPID WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY
DECELERATION AND A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY TO BE
WATCHED IS THAT THE TROUGH COULD TURN CLAUDETTE MORE NORTHWARD THAN
FORECAST. HOWEVER... CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CLAUDETTE WILL BE
WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN 72-96 HR...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A SLOWER
AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION.

CLAUDETTE CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN ALL
DIRECTIONS...AND AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT RUN UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE WEST IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL
THE CENTER REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER SOME WEAKENING
OVER LAND...THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO.

WHILE THE WIND RADII ARE FAIRLY SMALL...OTHER NEAR-GALE WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AWAY FROM
CLAUDETTE. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER AND THE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

FORECASTER BEVEN

At that time, she was at 15.0/71.3, and moving west at 29mph.

Current location of 93L? 14.1N 67.4W (latest ATCF coords according to wunderground.)
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If 93L does not have a low-level circulation at this time, which I think it does, it is pretty darn close! The 850 MB. vorticity signature is that of a system with a LLC.

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Quoting stormpetrol:
Personally from looking at 93L today, I think it has moved more North of due west or even slightly WNW at 280-285 degrees , just my opinion though!
i agree 100%. do you think the front is pulling it more to the wnw? tia
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Quoting ackee:
THE spin that we are seeing with 93L at 70W is that where suface LOW could possblie form or the spin is midlevel
Right now it is mostly in the mid-levels. Although 850mb vorticity is strong and that is only 5000 feet above the surface. It wouldn't take much more for a surface circulation to form. Currently, we have no surface observations backing up a closed LLC.
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Evolution of Invest 93L...

15:15Z:



Now:

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1187. ackee
THE spin that we are seeing with 93L at 70W is that where suface LOW could possblie form or the spin is midlevel
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I can remember the last time a cape storm went through the Leward and through the Yucatan Channel. If anybody can can u post the track of the last one to do so?


Examples since 1950 (2):

Hurricane Allen, 1980



Hurricane Ivan, 2004



Near misses in the same time period:

Baker, 1950
Charlie, 1951
Ella, 1958
Carla, 1959
Judith, 1966
Beulah, 1967
TS Dorothy, 1970
Edith, 1971
Eloise, 1975
Gilbert, 1988
Georges, 1998
TS Helene, 2000
Lili, 2002
Claudette, 2003
TS Bonnie, 2004
Charley, 2004
Dennis, 2005
Olga, 2007
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1184. WxLogic
For now models (as expected) are initializing 93L a bit far S. Once a close low is found and have models initialize with it then expect changes.

Given current Shortwave presentation (15N 69W), it surely looks LLC is becoming more evident. I would go as high as 40% for the 8PM TWO, but won't be surprised NHC goes to 30% by 8PM.
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1183. angiest
Quoting Ameister12:
TS Fernanda's cloud tops are rather warm.


But it has very nice banding and a ragged eye feature.


No confusing that with a pinhead ... er ... pinhole eye.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok the betting and polls begins

What will 93L be at the 8pm TWO

A.(20%)
B.(30%)
C.(40%)
D.(50%)
E.(60%)

I say C 40%

B or C
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Quoting wxhatt:
Thank goodness; I think we may have a low impact year on the U.S. mainland. It seems the tracks are either out to sea, or far to the south.



I wouldn't say that yet, as most of the storms that have recurved were trough splits.
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Quoting wxhatt:
This one is taking the southern route...



The other African waves will probably be fish storms...



Quoting wxhatt:
This one is taking the southern route...



The other African waves will probably be fish storms...





TROLL alert poof
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Hopefully this isn't what 93L does.
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1178. wxhatt
Quoting GTcooliebai:
the season hasn't even begun yet, we haven't even had a hurricane yet, plus peak is Sept.10.


Just looking at last year as a possible analog with a decreasing La Nina going to a more nuetral signal, we may have a similar year for tracks.

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1177. txjac
Why is the high hanging over Texas for so long? What is causing that? What will make it move? Serious question ...dont understand?
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*Repost*




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Quoting islander101010:
emily had trouble just south of hispanola 93 is almost there


93L is too far south it be impacted emily was hugging the coast of hispanola big diffrence
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Quoting angiest:


My recollection is that it was forward speed, and not so much sheer.
You can always check back in the advisory archives on the NHC site. Here is from a discussion:

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

CLAUDETTE HAS WEAKENED SOME THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS CAUSED THE CENTER TO BECOME INTERMITTENTLY EXPOSED ON THE
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
...AND A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KT.
BASED ON THIS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 55 KT...AND THIS MAY
BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

Link
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Quoting remembercelia:

You saw what bone-dry Texas air did to a piddling TS...ate it alive. I'm thinking we need a good-sized Cat 1 coming into the western GOM to have a chance of rain. Don't know whether you were around in 1980. I watched powerful, Gulf-filling Allen approach the coast as the drought, not even as bad as today's, suck water and strength from the storm. What we got caused flooding, with 2 people killed who were told to get off the beach and didn't...but it broke that disastrous drought.


I remember Allen, I was teaching in the Valley then, moved the next year up to Louisiana. It did help with the drought. I would love to see Texas and west central Louisiana get a stalled TS over us to help end the drought. Rain without the high winds and damage.

It's still 102 with a 105 heat index at after six pm. October weather is sounding soooo wonderful!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok the betting and polls begins

What will 93L be at the 8pm TWO

A.(20%)
B.(30%)
C.(40%)
D.(50%)
E.(60%)

I say C 40%

C or D
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5519
Quoting USAFwxguy:
18Z HWRF

It seems as though the HWRF always blows these systems up!
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1170. ackee
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
ITCZ heating up.
I wonder if the ITCZ will spin up another storm
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Quoting islander101010:
emily had trouble just south of hispanola 93 is almost there 20%
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Personally from looking at 93L today, I think it has moved more North of due west or even slightly WNW at 280-285 degrees , just my opinion though!
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Quoting EYEStoSEA:
nice big ull in the atlantic providing nice outflow of the high clouds over 93L.
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Quoting wxhatt:
Thank goodness; I think we may have a low impact year on the U.S. mainland. It seems the tracks are either out to sea, or far to the south.



no I don't think so from the start of the season they said that the impacts to the US W Carib and GOM won't be bad til the mid-later part of the season
plus 19 forecasted 7 down 12 more to go I think we may even have more than forecasted
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TS Fernanda's cloud tops are rather warm.


But it has very nice banding and a ragged eye feature.
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emily had trouble just south of hispanola 93 is almost there
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Quoting Levi32:
Based on 93L's performance today, given the circumstances, the system seems poised to become a tropical storm in the western Caribbean as soon as it slows down. Interests along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula should keep a close eye on the situation.
Isn't it suppose to slow tomorrow?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
ITCZ heating up.



Big time! I think there are enough energy to suport 2 Mayor canes at the same time in the Atlantic.
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1160. wxhatt
This one is taking the southern route...



The other African waves will probably be fish storms...



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Quoting wxhatt:
Thank goodness; I think we may have a low impact year on the U.S. mainland. It seems the tracks are either out to sea, or far to the south.

the season hasn't even begun yet, we haven't even had a hurricane yet, plus peak is Sept.10.
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50% within the next 48hrs seems reasonable........maybe should be even higher!
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Quoting superpete:
1101 StormwatcherCI- Great satelite pictures. Gustav also put a foot of North Sound into my canal-side garden here in Sav-Newlands...LOL
He did quite a bit of roof damage and trees down in East End too.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok the betting and polls begins

What will 93L be at the 8pm TWO

A.(20%)
B.(30%)
C.(40%)
D.(50%)
E.(60%)

I say C 40%
I just hope it's a TD at 11, one of these days, or else I'm gonna' have to go see Louie The Lip to get money to pay some bills. It's been a slow year.
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Quoting TampaSpin:





I say 93L will go N of where the models are showing
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1153. wxhatt
Thank goodness; I think we may have a low impact year on the U.S. mainland. It seems the tracks are either out to sea, or far to the south.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok the betting and polls begins

What will 93L be at the 8pm TWO

A.(20%)
B.(30%)
C.(40%)
D.(50%)
E.(60%)

I say C 40%
F.70%
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok the betting and polls begins

What will 93L be at the 8pm TWO

A.(20%)
B.(30%)
C.(40%)
D.(50%)
E.(60%)

I say C 40%
(C) for me it looks like it is trying to get going and where it will go i have no idea.
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1150. hotrods
Someone quote me if im wrong, but looking at the infared sat loop, is that P17L coming into view to the right and what some of the models are hinting at to develope?
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1148. ackee
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok the betting and polls begins

What will 93L be at the 8pm TWO

A.(20%)
B.(30%)
C.(40%)
D.(50%)
E.(60%)

I say C 40%
D
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok the betting and polls begins

What will 93L be at the 8pm TWO

A.(20%)
B.(30%)
C.(40%)
D.(50%)
E.(60%)

I say C 40%



D or E
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
Would be awful hard to go against all the MOdels Consusus here!






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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.