Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting USAFwxguy:


don't you measure rainfall there in ounces?

Those were the old days. We have upgraded now.
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1295. Patrap
yeppar's..Africa spitting um out like a Dalmation litter in Spring
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Quoting wxhatt:


So absolutely!

and looking like Hmmmmmm #2 over to da east!



ITCZ convection, although it does look interesting.
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1293. Patrap
Courtesy: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

'Towers in the Tempest' is a narrated animation that explains recent scientific insights into how hurricanes intensify. This intensification can be caused by a phenomenon called a 'hot tower'. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations using a very fine temporal resolution of 3 minutes. Combining this simulation data with satellite observations enables detailed study of 'hot towers'. The science of 'hot towers' is described using: observed hurricane data from a satellite, descriptive illustrations, and volumetric visualizations of simulation data. The first section of the animation shows actual data from Hurricane Bonnie observed by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft. Three dimensional precipitation radar data reveal a strong 'hot tower' in Hurricane Bonnie's internal structure. The second section uses illustrations to show the dynamics of a hurricane and the formation of 'hot towers'. 'Hot towers' are formed as air spirals inward towards the eye and is forced rapidly upwards, accelerating the movement of energy into high altitude clouds. The third section shows these processes using volumetric cloud, wind, and vorticity data from a supercomputer simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Vertical wind speed data highlights a 'hot tower'. Arrows representing the wind field move rapidly up into the 'hot tower, boosting the energy and intensifying the hurricane. Combining satellite observations with super-computer simulations provides a powerful tool for studying Earth's complex systems.


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Hmmmmmmmmm.....I got lots of rain today. 1.72inches, Zephyrhills Fl.
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1289. wxhatt
Quoting Patrap:
Can a Brotha get a, Hmmmmmmmm ?







So absolutely!

and looking like Hmmmmmm #2 over to da east!

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1288. ackee
Quoting stormpetrol:
I could almost guarantee one thing if 93L was in the Gulf , surface circulation or not it would probably be circled in RED!
WOW are hiting the nail on the head with this one
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1286. Patrap
..wait for it.

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Quoting stormpetrol:
Just shows us one thing whenever you are in power, you can basically do want you want, until absolutely proven otherwise, removed or impeached , just saying....


Or you can measure your performance and determine what your overall accuracy is.
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Convection with 93L starting to pop close to the vort max center....

23:45Z:
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p541 had a map of developmental spots for this time of yr 48 hrs it will be moving just past jamaica dont expect anything to there
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1282. wxhatt
Quoting stormpetrol:
I could almost guarantee one thing if 93L was in the Gulf , surface circulation or not it would probably be circled in RED!


I second that!

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I agree with NICycloneChaser, 93L is losing its convection it had earlier this afternoon. However, the fact that little popcorn area of thunderstorms keep developing, this means that 93L could re-fire convection at any time.


It will certainly fire again, but I don't think it will until the morning. I'd like to again make it clear that I am not downcasting, I believe this will develop, but we're not going to wake up to a TD, which is what you could believe looking at some of these posts.
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1280. Patrap
Can a Brotha get a, Hmmmmmmmm ?





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1279. ackee
Quoting stormpetrol:
92L never looked half as good 93L "without signs of a surface circulation" at they kept it 30-40% for about 2days!
agree
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Guarantee whenever you see buoys near the COC report consistent and non-durinal pressure drops you WILL see a up in the percentages. That is not happening at this time.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23564
1277. Patrap

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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I could almost guarantee one thing if 93L was in the Gulf , surface circulation or not it would probably be circled in RED!
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Link
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I agree with NICycloneChaser, 93L is losing its convection it had earlier this afternoon. However, the fact that little popcorn area of thunderstorms keep developing, this means that 93L could re-fire convection at any time.
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1272. Patrap
NEXSAT 93L Low Cloud Loop
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Look at the IR Rainbow loop. Thunderstorm activity is significantly lower than it was this afternoon.


Significantly lower?????

Link
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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Quoting weatherb0y:
I STRONGLY disagree...
and that's not my opinion, it's factual observation...
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Just shows us one thing whenever you are in power, you can basically do want you want, until absolutely proven otherwise, removed or impeached , just saying....
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93L is fireing a lot better then it was last night
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114707
1265. wxhatt
More rain for Haiti and the Dominican Republic they certainly don't need. Hope to get some moisture over to drought stricken Texas.

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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Look at the IR Rainbow loop. Thunderstorm activity is significantly lower than it was this afternoon.



I STRONGLY disagree
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114707
Quoting weatherb0y:
I STRONGLY disagree...


Look at the IR Rainbow loop. Thunderstorm activity is significantly lower than it was this afternoon.
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Quoting angiest:


They said surface circulation, not closed. Closed would make it a TD.
Exactly my point. Why are you discussing on the TWO if it has signs of closed circulation center or not when it is 20%? Obviously there aren't any if it this low. I've never seen them do that before.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
I would point out that thunderstorm activity is actually on the decrease right now in 93L, as would be expected at this time of day. But I'm sure I'd get plenty of angry responses.
I STRONGLY disagree...
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1260. angiest
Quoting ElConando:


While it would be nice for people like us. That being said, they are reporting to the masses, the masses just want to know nothing is around to threaten them and nothing more.


TWO is for the lay public. TWD is for meteorologists. If they treat invests as formal entities, then perhaps they should give a more thorough technical discussion of the system.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting tropicfreak:


I disagree with them, there are CLEARLY signs of one.

850 mb.



700 mb



500 mb

I think that means it has good spin, hence vorticity and spin, now that doesn't mean it has a surface low? One of the experts help me out here if I'm wrong :)
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The fact that 93L is still firing popcorn convection means one thing - It will do a lot better tonight during DMIN than other nights.
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Good rotation at 850mb does not mean that there is a surface circulation, but just a vigorous mid-level circulation.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23564
1256. wxhatt
Quoting GTcooliebai:
we don't have a mid Atlantic trough like last year, the high is more stronger this yr., discounting the storms that form off of trough splits or in the mid latitudes since they have a tendency to ride the prevailing westerlies. Which leaves Emily which ran aground in Haiti, Don which got smoked by dry air, and now we're watching 93L and that wave off Africa which the models have been consistently developing and traversing the Caribbean and showing heading into the gulf or east coast from there.Assuming 93L develops into Harvey, I think Irene will be the biggest threat to the CONUS.


Good Point.
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1255. angiest
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
What I don't get from the TWO is it seems they are making a closed LLC the factor as to whether it gets more than 20%... Since when is that the case? I don't ever remember them talking about signs of a closed circulation for any system below 50%....


They said surface circulation, not closed. Closed would make it a TD.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
92L never looked half as good 93L "without signs of a surface circulation" at they kept it 30-40% for about 2days!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I've always wished that the NHC would issue a separate TWO (not the TWD) to give a detailed, perhaps two paragraph discussion on invests so we can know their thoughts.


While it would be nice for people like us. That being said, they are reporting to the masses, the masses just want to know nothing is around to threaten them and nothing more.
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1252. hotrods
Maybe they are all on a late dinner break and just decided to say, " Hey! dinner is ready and its hot! just hit the same TWO and post it!
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I would point out that thunderstorm activity is actually on the decrease right now in 93L, as would be expected at this time of day. But I'm sure I'd get plenty of angry responses.
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Marine Weather Discussion

Excerpt:

THE GLOBAL MODELS FROM THE 12 UTC RUN THIS MORNING ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE INITIAL STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS AS THE WAVE TRACKS TO THE WNW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE BIG UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE IF AND AT WHAT TIME DOES LOW PRES FORM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

THE NCEP MODELS FROM 12 UTC THIS MORNING ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE WAVE WHEN IT ENTERS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THU NEAR 80W/81W. THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS
LOW PRES FORMING OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS IT MOVES PAST 75W. BASED ON THE
FACT THAT THE WAVE IS MOVING AT A FAST PACE FOR THE TIME BEING...
I WOULD EXPECT LOW PRES TO FORM ON IT ONCE IT SLOWS DOWN BEFORE
ENTERING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON THU AS IT IS PRESENTLY CAUGHT
UNDER A FAST UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW PATTERN. SO AM INCLINED TO
LEAN TOWARDS CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE ON EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 72W WED MORNING...NEAR 81W
THU WITH POSSIBLE LOW...THEN TO NEAR 84W FRI AFTERNOON...AND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
LATE SAT INTO SUN.

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Link

ABC islands radar loop!
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I know that some of the NHC forecasters are more conservative than others. I would love to see a "plot" of the % given versus development in 48 hours.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.