Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Good loop of 93L, showing the increase in cloud cover and broad cyclonic turning.

Link
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting PLsandcrab:


Thank heavens! I will never gripe about cold weather again. This summer has been brutal. We're hanging by a thread with our cows. No grass left and no hay to buy. We'll be going to the sale barn this weekend and practically giving some cows away.
publix must be making a killing its ridiculous what they want for a steak here in ecen fl. might be because so many people are on food stamps they are the ones buying it think that helps drive up their prices
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3293. Caner
Why even mention the world's 7th warmest July?

Do we ever mention the 7th fastest airplane in history?

Or the 7th most powerful empire?

If it's the top 3, mention it. If not, you're just horn-blowing your agenda.
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Quoting zerveftexas:

No, I mean 94L. 93L was the wave west of Bertha that died. 95L came days after 94L began spinning, but 95L was named Cristobal well before 94L developed into Dolly.



Oh thought you were talking about another repeat of Dolly, apologize.
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I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 17/1545Z
D. 15.0N 74.50W
E. 17/1615Z TO 17/2015Z --CORRECTED
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good News for Texas near future which also could affect tropics down the road?

Our dreaded, dominant high pressure ridge currently centered over New Mexico will likely nudge east towards I-35, preventing any change in our weather for at least five days or so. By Monday, computer models suggest a storm in the Gulf of Alaska will help draw the high pressure ridge back to the west and open up the door to a northwest flow aloft. It could introduce a cold front to Texas as soon as next Tuesday at the same time the sea breeze starts to get active again. By midweek, some isolated showers may again be in the cards for us! For now, it's a very slim 10% chance Tuesday through Thursday.


As for long term relief, though it's still too early to say for sure, we do see signs of this heat wave finally breaking just prior to Labor Day weekend. Stay tuned for updates here and on the 8 Day Forecast.


Thank heavens! I will never gripe about cold weather again. This summer has been brutal. We're hanging by a thread with our cows. No grass left and no hay to buy. We'll be going to the sale barn this weekend and practically giving some cows away.
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Quoting islander101010:
guessing nhc will not go today but go tomorrow and find a cyclone


Recon is still scheduled for today.
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guessing nhc will not go today but go tomorrow and find a cyclone
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
The thunder just woke me up, very loud, and deafening, sounds like bombs going off outside!!More like an atomic bomb, or something from the movie 'War of the Worlds'. That last one, I'm pretty much officially deaf!


Yeah here too its very intense! Getting those positive strokes that have explosive and destructive energy, getting bright purple flashes here. I'm now closing in on 2 inches right now, and it looks like more heavy stuff is developing near the coast off to the southwest.

Ive had just under 12 inches now for August, and a very wet pattern will be taking shape for us over the next several days, each and every day.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
93L will be passing over this buoy soon. Keep checking on it for pressure falls and a wind shift. So far the pressure isn't dropping and the wind is still out of the east, which suggests there is no surface circulation at this time.


no not really that just could mean that the LLC is not closed still open and/or the LLC is small and has not yet reached the buoy
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I really doubt they cancel with 93L receiving a T 1.5 rating from satellite estimates.


For god's sake please ignore him.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I really doubt they cancel with 93L receiving a T 1.5 rating from satellite estimates.


Please ignore him, he's only here to cause trouble.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24550
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
93L has the looks of a pre-hurricane. Gains more convection and a surface circulation,TS. Clears out in the center half of what it is now,Hurricane.
Yup! You're absolutely right on that one.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



well i hope you are not to DISAPPOINTED when recon CANCELS AGAIN...
I really doubt they cancel with 93L receiving a T 1.5 rating from satellite estimates.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting zerveftexas:
Are you guys sure they're not going to just quash recon for today?

NoVaForecaster - 94L aka. pre-Dolly


You mean 93L.
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93L will be passing over this buoy soon. Keep checking on it for pressure falls and a wind shift. So far the pressure isn't dropping and the wind is still out of the east, which suggests there is no surface circulation at this time.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good News for Texas near future which also could affect tropics down the road?

Our dreaded, dominant high pressure ridge currently centered over New Mexico will likely nudge east towards I-35, preventing any change in our weather for at least five days or so. By Monday, computer models suggest a storm in the Gulf of Alaska will help draw the high pressure ridge back to the west and open up the door to a northwest flow aloft. It could introduce a cold front to Texas as soon as next Tuesday at the same time the sea breeze starts to get active again. By midweek, some isolated showers may again be in the cards for us! For now, it's a very slim 10% chance Tuesday through Thursday.


As for long term relief, though it's still too early to say for sure, we do see signs of this heat wave finally breaking just prior to Labor Day weekend. Stay tuned for updates here and on the 8 Day Forecast.
That would be a nice change in weather.
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3272. Mucinex
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Really nasty cell over me...



FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
942 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

FLC103-171545-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0064.110817T1342Z-110817T1545Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PINELLAS FL-
942 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LARGO...CLEARWATER


* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 942 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF THREE INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.

SPOTTERS NEAR CLEARWATER HAVE REPORTED NEARLY 2 AND A HALF INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES
IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Yes, but I'm not sure how much if that tightening has reached the surface yet.


Today's recon mission should tell the tale.
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Quoting scott39:
I notice you didnt mention the wave coming off of Africa going into the Eastern/N GOM. There was model bomb after model bomb going off in it yesterday. I know models long term tracks change way out all the time, as will todays. Just Curious



I try not to speculate that far out especially when system are just coming off the coast of Africa. The pattern for the rest of the month will have the two track I mentioned.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


It looks like the circulation is tightening up.
Yes, but I'm not sure how much if that tightening has reached the surface yet.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
3268. ackee
I am off to work cant wait recon to go in 93L should be intresting what they find
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93L has the looks of a pre-hurricane. Gains more convection and a surface circulation,TS. Clears out in the center half of what it is now,Hurricane.
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Quoting hcubed:


And, as I mentioned earlier, there are ways to increase the font size on YOUR computer without resorting to caps.

Just as there are ways to keep me from seeing posts that are in all caps.


I know the difference between a surface circulation and a mid-level, I'm not that stupid. Goodbye audrey.
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3262. hcubed
Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
I guess you didnt understand either FREAK OF THE TROPICS OR FREAK OF NATURE OR TROPIC FREAK . ITS A VISION PROBLEM. YOU DO KNOW IM NOT SITTING AT MY HOUSE IN FRONT OF THE COMPUTER SCREAMING. I WOULD LIKE TO DO IT IN PERSON TO A FEW FOLKS THOUGH. REALLY WE ALL NO THE ASSUMPTION OF CAPS LIKE SCREAMING. THAT WAS 20 YEARS AGO. ONCE AGAIN. I CANT SEE I LEAVE IT ON SO I CAN SEE WHAT I TYPED..NOW PLEASE LEAVE ME ALONE AND LET ME ENJOY WHAT THE INTELLIGENT PEOPLE ARE SAYING ABOUT TROPICS THANKS


And, as I mentioned earlier, there are ways to increase the font size on YOUR computer without resorting to caps.

Just as there are ways to keep me from seeing posts that are in all caps.
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Good News for Texas near future which also could affect tropics down the road?

Our dreaded, dominant high pressure ridge currently centered over New Mexico will likely nudge east towards I-35, preventing any change in our weather for at least five days or so. By Monday, computer models suggest a storm in the Gulf of Alaska will help draw the high pressure ridge back to the west and open up the door to a northwest flow aloft. It could introduce a cold front to Texas as soon as next Tuesday at the same time the sea breeze starts to get active again. By midweek, some isolated showers may again be in the cards for us! For now, it's a very slim 10% chance Tuesday through Thursday.


As for long term relief, though it's still too early to say for sure, we do see signs of this heat wave finally breaking just prior to Labor Day weekend. Stay tuned for updates here and on the 8 Day Forecast.
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Quoting Waltanater:
You think by 5pm today we'll have a TD? Waters are warm enough...


Someone get rid of cloudburst, he obviously has nothing better to do than to stir up the blog. There are obvious signs of a surface circulation. Report, Ignore, Move on.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


the South atlantic saw many not just one nine to be exact one was a Hurricane

here the link to the S Atlantic TC
Link


Thanks. I stand corrected. That was interesting. I appreciate it!
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925 vort is increasing and looking at RGB and VIS sat loop it sure look to have a LLC look at it yourself look at the low level clouds
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Quoting cloudburst2011:




93L does NOT HAVE A SURFACE CIRCULATION...it has a long ways to go for that...
You think by 5pm today we'll have a TD? Waters are warm enough...
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Shear is too high.


Thank you. I saw a map of all cyclones in the world from 1985 to 2005, and noticed that there were none in the SE PAC. and 1 in the S ATL.
Link
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Out of curiosity, does anyone know why the South Eastern Pac. and S. Atlantic never see tropical cyclones. I know the S. Atlantic saw one in March a few years ago. But why don't cyclones form in those two basins?


the South atlantic saw many not just one nine to be exact one was a Hurricane

here the link to the S Atlantic TC
Link
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I wouldn't say it has a well-defined surface circulation. Satellite imagery isn't that obvious that it is closed at the surface, and we don't have any surface obs backing up a closed circulation either. It does look good to me though. Almost there.


It looks like the circulation is tightening up.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
93L is looking well organized, has a well defined surface circulation, 93L certainly does have the looks of a TD.

93L Floater Infared Rainbow
I wouldn't say it has a well-defined surface circulation. Satellite imagery isn't that obvious that it is closed at the surface, and we don't have any surface obs backing up a closed circulation either. It does look good to me though. Almost there.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
It did diminish and then rebuilt no big deal

result of DMIN, the time when invests sleep
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3246. scott39
Quoting weatherguy03:
Watching Invest 93L..Eastern Atlantic...MJO is Coming Back!
I notice you didnt mention the wave coming off of Africa going into the Eastern/N GOM. There was model bomb after model bomb going off in it yesterday. I know models long term tracks change way out all the time, as will todays. Just Curious
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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