Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting kshipre1:
hello,

strange how the GFS shows it going up the east coast after hitting florida.

almost hinting at a possible trough? weird because the Bermuda High is supposed to be parked in the Western atlantic and pretty strong at that

You don't think the EGOM is equally at risk?
This storm could be an anomaly, that follows a strange track, last nights GFS showed a storm riding up the West Coast of FL. after passing through the Keys, this morning it shifted a little to the right and now has it going up the spine of the state, the ECMWF keeps it just offshore of the East Coast of FL. with the Subtropical Ridge building in.
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3395. Grothar
Looks like a good blob off of the East coast of Florida

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3382. GTcooliebai 3:12 PM GMT on August 17, 2011 +0


Look at the spin on this wave here: Link

If it can get away from that SAL, its going to explode. It's huge!! I'm surprised it is not yellow yet.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
dont trust the global model "bombing out" a tc at 200+ hrs,not impossible ,but far from likely imo


I wouldn't exactly call development of an African wave in August into a hurricane 'far from likely'. It might not, but climatologically speaking it has a good chance of becoming a hurricane, even a major one.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

It's fairly obvious considering the only scientists of whom offer direct support to the theory continue to receive grants from Government Agencies and/or work for the Government. ie: NASA, IPCC.


I guess ignorance is bliss on this blog.
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Hello Everyone! Is Levi's tropicaltidbit out yet?
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3389. jpsb
Quoting Neapolitan:

We already do have proof--many proofs, in fact--of sea level rise. It's just that some choose to ignore them. If anyone's interested, please let me know. ;-)
Not really, the only really reliable info on sea level would come from satellite measurements, since land masses slowly rise and fall for all kinds of reasons. And sea level measurements via satellites are a fairly recent development so there is not enough data points to allow any conclusions.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Exactly right.


Uhhhhh, no, exactly wrong. And as far as the "Nation's Weather History" going back to 1880, what?
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hello,

strange how the GFS shows it going up the east coast after hitting florida.

almost hinting at a possible trough? weird because the Bermuda High is supposed to be parked in the Western atlantic and pretty strong at that

You don't think the EGOM is equally at risk?
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Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
Yesterday, I posted that you should put milk jugs of water in your freezer before storms to keep food colder longer in the event of a power loss. That prompted a 2-hour debate on the food safety hazards of reusing milk jugs. The better suggestion would have been to use gallon jugs of bottled water, then you could also use them for drinking. Anyway, at risk of creating more unintended controversy, I have another hurricane preparedness tip:

My neighborhood was beat up badly in Hurricane Ivan, but the only damage to the inside of our well-constructed homes came from water intrusion through roof vents which, in turn, caused ceilings to collapse. I avoided this by taking foam pool flotation "noodles," cutting them to the length I needed, and wedging them in the horizontal roof vents. The noodles held fast in the wind because they fit tightly, and no water came in. I hope there are no concerns with this tip, and please understand I'm not suggesting that people swim on their rooftops.

1/2 pint water bottles work better if clustered. Easier to fit in and around items.
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dont trust the global model "bombing out" a tc at 200+ hrs,not impossible ,but far from likely imo
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Look at the spin on this wave here: Link
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Quoting reedzone:


My big focus is the potential East Coast Storm.. However I think 93L may make TD status tomorrow.


Ok thanks, we shall see what recon finds today.
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Quoting E46Pilot:
I see 93 showing a definite spin up and inward pull in the last couple of frames. It appears the organization is beginning to occur.


yes I am with you on that while doing this it may just close off it LLC in time for the HH to fly in
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Morning Reed!

Thoughts on 93L? It looks really healthy IMO.


My big focus is the potential East Coast Storm.. However I think 93L may make TD status tomorrow.
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93L running out of time too. It really added some moisture to the atmosphere though.
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reed,

what's your take on this next potential system headed westward toward the Florida peninsula/EGOM?
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Quoting usa777:
Even if 93 does spin up it looks like it's headed into central America.


It's expected to slow down and make a more northerly turn towards the Yucatan.
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3375. 7544
Quoting tropicfreak:


Yes.


thanks also to note now the gfs 06z has it going to fla and up the east side and not the gom this run
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3374. usa777
Even if 93 does spin up it looks like it's headed into central America.
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Quoting serialteg:
for the blog, taken from crown weather's site:

"It is notable that we continue to have agreement and consistency among the models that a significant tropical cyclone will develop west of 60 West Longitude next week. As of this morning, this disturbance (30W longitude) is battling dry air and water vapor imagery indicates that we should continue to see it battle dry air right up to at least 50 West Longitude. Also, these same models were forecasting late last week that Invest 93L was going to be a significant tropical cyclone and well we don’t have that."



Models are more bullish with this one and also are consistent. They were never consistent with 93L this far out.. A few strong runs then weakened it.
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Quoting reedzone:
Henry Margusity..



Morning Reed!

Thoughts on 93L? It looks really healthy IMO.
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I see 93 showing a definite spin up and inward pull in the last couple of frames. It appears the organization is beginning to occur.
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Quoting 7544:
the area off africa should get a yellow circle soon is that the one the models show as the big one tia


Yes.
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3368. jpsb
Quoting weatherman566:
Looks like 93L has that "S" shape to it. Only a matter of time before it becomes better organized.
I agree
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Quoting 7544:
the area off africa should get a yellow circle soon is that the one the models show as the big one tia


From accuweather

1. Gert is falling apart and heading out to sea, so that will be that with Gert.

2. The wave in the eastern Caribbean should become a tropical depression in two days and may become TS Harvey before plowing into the Yucatan this weekend. Jamaica may also get hit by heavy rains as the system moves by.

3. The mega-wave out in the Atlantic is the one that all the operational models are keying on. The Euro and GFS both develop a hurricane out of the system, and if Harvey does not get named, then that system will become Harvey; if not, it will be Irene.

I do believe the system in 10 days will be nearing the East Coast of the U.S. and could be the first hurricane impact along the Eastern Seaboard. We have plenty of time to look at the exact track, so no one should be panicking just yet.

By the way, we made it to the G storm without a hurricane yet...

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Henry Margusity..

It won't let me post his map, sorry folks.

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3364. 7544
the area off africa should get a yellow circle soon is that the one the models show as the big one tia
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Quoting weathers4me:
93 L looking like only a cluster of storms with no low level circulation. It will track W to WNW and dissipate. We need to take focus on whats happening in the East Atl. next. IMO


I strongly disagree with you. It is well organized and a circulation is very evident, convection is continuing to fire as well.
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Yesterday, I posted that you should put milk jugs of water in your freezer before storms to keep food colder longer in the event of a power loss. That prompted a 2-hour debate on the food safety hazards of reusing milk jugs. The better suggestion would have been to use gallon jugs of bottled water, then you could also use them for drinking. Anyway, at risk of creating more unintended controversy, I have another hurricane preparedness tip:

My neighborhood was beat up badly in Hurricane Ivan, but the only damage to the inside of our well-constructed homes came from water intrusion through roof vents which, in turn, caused ceilings to collapse. I avoided this by taking foam pool flotation "noodles," cutting them to the length I needed, and wedging them in the horizontal roof vents. The noodles held fast in the wind because they fit tightly, and no water came in. I hope there are no concerns with this tip, and please understand I'm not suggesting that people swim on their rooftops.
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 161530 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 16 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-077 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 17/1545Z
D. 15.0N 74.50W
E. 17/1615Z TO 17/2015Z --CORRECTED
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 18/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA FOR 16/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 16/1300Z.

HHs still a go so far!
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for the blog, taken from crown weather's site:

"It is notable that we continue to have agreement and consistency among the models that a significant tropical cyclone will develop west of 60 West Longitude next week. As of this morning, this disturbance (30W longitude) is battling dry air and water vapor imagery indicates that we should continue to see it battle dry air right up to at least 50 West Longitude. Also, these same models were forecasting late last week that Invest 93L was going to be a significant tropical cyclone and well we don’t have that."

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3357. angiest
Quoting FLdewey:
Now now children... simmer down. Give it some time... it's gotta start spinning first. Otherwise they should be flying the P-3 over Nebraska looking for gustnados.


Send it some of your avatar's spin.
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the convection is starting to spread out the empty hole is now starting to get filled
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The more I look at 93L the less and less it impresses me. It's fast forward speed is really giving it a hard time.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
3354. Grothar
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3353. txjac
Has anyone seen "sailingallover"? I havent seen him around since he holed up in the mangroves when the last storm passed by Puerto Rico
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Quoting stormpetrol:
respect your opinion recon go or not?
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Exactly right.


The point is to illustrate, over time, the tendancy of temperature statistics. Its significant, if you have a 100+ year record of data, if the most recent data tends to cluster in the top 10%. Which it has. That's the implicit message although Jeff has looked at the detailed stats in other blogs. If you need to look up the word "implicit", you can find it here:

Link

93L's structure is looking better. Seems more-or-less vertically stacked.
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3348. Grothar
Quoting WxLogic:


Yes... currently at 30%


Thanks, I took a nap.
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Quoting NoVaForecaster:


Its HIS blog he can do whatever he wants to with it, and if he wants to talk about GW he can!!


yes I am with you on that

Quoting farupnorth:



Should be interesting to watch in a while not right there yet. Also note approaching some good heat potential : Link


true we should see thing blowing like a nuke blast soon

Quoting zerveftexas:
Not a troll, but I think there's a 70% chance they'll cancel recon today. It's clearly not a TD yet and besides, how often does recon go out when the NHC is only giving it a 30% chance to develop in the next two days?

People need to realize, it has a LLC (suface circulation) but what it lacks is a closed surface circulation. There's a major difference and people tend to mix that up.


that you are very wrong about it more like 60-70% chance that the HH will go out and yes it has a LLC and you are maybe right about it not being closed "yet" but one thing I know it is closing up now silly the reasion why we send out the HH is to find out if there is a Closed Low Level Circulation and if it has enough wind blowing to be classified as a Tropical system

Quoting tropicfreak:


They did it with Bret earlier this season,and it was at 40%.


true indeed

Quoting weatherman566:
Looks like 93L has that "S" shape to it. Only a matter of time before it becomes better organized.


yeah I guess so more like a hurricane look
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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