Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
I was here in SULPHUR LA RIGHT ON THE BORDER I REMEMBER MY WIFE WAKING UP THAT MORNING AND SAYING WOW!!!! IT LOOKS LIKE HURRICANE WEATHER OUT THERE LOL SHE DIDNT HAVE A CLUE, BUT IT GOT KINDA NASTY HERE A COUPLE OF HOURS


Stop yelling.
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2745. angiest
Just saw on the news that Joplin, MO, schools are re-opening tomorrow.
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I quess violent felt bad for making fun of a blind maned . its ok darling you didnt know i was blind i was injure d in hurricane rita..i was hit in the head by my garage door
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well?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
has 93L stall sure has not move march


It may have slowed to begin a turn toward the SW and the Nicaraguan east coast.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
It appears the convection is trying to consolidate over the vort max instead of being all spread out like it has been today.


Yep and it is already firing off popcorn convection. It also has certainly made some structural improvements. I am still confused why the center is initialized south of 15N (graphic below) -- I think any center appears to be wanting to form north of 15N.
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93L is also headed towards two upper level tutt cells; not sure when they will be moving away or retrograding and they may certainly enhance some of the convection but perhaps retard development as well. Sheer is low ahead of but it is not clear sailing at the moment either.

Link
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Just did a blog entry on the tropics. Check it out.

I'm out for now. Be back later perhaps.
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Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


Now start to look for that SW turn I forecast yesterday. It may develop some but should hit the east coast of Nicaragua and be no threat to the GOM.
????? Why would it turn SW? And what signs have you seen that it is turning SW?
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Grothar- Been some major RI's also much later in the season, in our area after mid-October/ Mitch ( '98) & Paloma ( '08) come to mind. Wilma took the prize for the big 'wow' factor though?
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Quoting JLPR2:
93L is firing little cells of convection, starting early today.


Now start to look for that SW turn I forecast yesterday. It may develop some but should hit the east coast of Nicaragua and be no threat to the GOM.
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has 93L stall sure has not move march
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
2734. JLPR2
Also, 93L left a little piece of it behind.
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2733. JLPR2
93L is firing little cells of convection, starting early today.
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It appears the convection is trying to consolidate over the vort max instead of being all spread out like it has been today.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
2731. Grothar
Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


2005 was an extraordinary year. never a year like that and hopefully will never see another one like that. Very devastating.


2004 & 2005 were very devastating.
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2730. Patrap
That can happen as I fell asleep During TS Cindy Storm at the time,,in July 2005,,and awoke to Cat 1-Damage and power out to 230,000.


Cindy was upgraded to Cat-1 Jan 06 post season.

So yeah,,I guess we missed dat'un.


It wound up tight at Grand Isle.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129773
Quoting Grothar:


This is an image of Wilma on the 16th of Oct. I can remember many saying nothing would come of it...too late in the season.



2005 was an extraordinary year. never a year like that and hopefully will never see another one like that. Very devastating.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


you are kidding right?

93Ls structure is light years better than it was just 2 days ago; convection is not the only indication of a strengthening system.

Also it is forecast to slow down tomorrow morning


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


Just my opinion and I am not kidding; I don't think it is going to develop before coming ashore in the Yucatan......Just respectfully disagree and we will see what happens......... :)
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


ummmmm....no thank you?


Yes it may strengthen, but will travel safely well south of your area.
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2725. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/93L
MARK
14.78N/70.51W
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2724. Grothar
Quoting superpete:
We watched Wilma ( here in Cayman) do its ramp up over-night to Cat 5/ couldn't believe what we woke to the next morning and only about 140 miles away to the SW at the time.


This is an image of Wilma on the 16th of Oct. I can remember many saying nothing would come of it...too late in the season.

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2723. angiest
Quoting atmoaggie:
Umm, you didn't know where you where when Humberto hit.

So, were you in a coma?
Driving around the swamps, lost?
Well lubricated for an LSU game?


It was a weekend, I will assume at my in-laws with no internet and only broadcast TV.
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2722. GetReal


93L is steadily becoming better organized, IMO.
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Quoting Dennis8:


17th day above 100 degrees here....broke the 1980 heatwave record. It will take a Tropical System to break our drought..nothing like it in my 49 years on the Texas Coast!

After Ike I quit wishing for hurricanes and I have been in 10 or 11 storms but we need the rain w/o the surge and wind.
I am around 70 days here, I use to live between Waco and Dallas and that is also very Hot.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
SORRY VIOLET IM 75 PERCENT BLIND AND I HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING WHAT I TYPED I WILL try to do better
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Oh c'mon u know better:) 93L will be a TS by tomorrow and u know it :)


Hey Brother....On your earlier Haiti comment, there was a really good recent four segment PBS documentary "Blacks in Latin America" and one of the episodes was on the history of Haiti. Haiti was forsaken alright and not by God (per Pat Robertson). After the revolt against France, the Country was isolated politically and economically for centuries by the Europe and the United States and I was shocked to find out that they were forced to repay a National debt to France (in the billions of dollars) dating all the way back from the 1700's through the 1960's. I also know that it was used as a dumping ground for toxic wastes by some Western countries...........It's a real tragedy all the way around between this history, domestic political corruption, and the natural disasters including acting as a buffer so many times for storms headed towards the Gulf and US.
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2718. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
8.3N/30.23W
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2717. Mucinex
Well that's one way to get the lurkers to come out. Kinda cool to see them posting. Hope they stop by more often.

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Quoting angiest:
I got no weather from Humberto, I just wish I knew where I was when he hit:

Umm, you didn't know where you where when Humberto hit.

So, were you in a coma?
Driving around the swamps, lost?
Well lubricated for an LSU game?

My in-laws were home, south of Beaumont (middle of northern eyewall in your radar plot). They were fairly aware...
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2715. angiest
Quoting Dennis8:


9-13-2007 HOBBY Airport No rain and top wind 16 mph..you could have been at home if you live in Houston and not known a thing if you were not obsessed w/ weather.


Except I can name almost every tropical storm I have been in starting with Charley in 1998.
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AMEN TO REDDRUM!!!! THESE ARE SO OF THE MOST TROPIC KNOWLEDGE PEOPLE I HAVE EVEN SEEN. SOME TIMES SOMEONE WILL WANT TO BE RUDE,BUT MOST PEOPLE ON HERE ARE REALLY KEEN ON THE TROPICS.
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2713. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
.
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2712. Dennis8
Quoting angiest:
I got no weather from Humberto, I just wish I knew where I was when he hit:



9-13-2007 HOBBY Airport No rain and top wind 16 mph..you could have been at home if you live in Houston and not known a thing if you were not obsessed w/ weather.
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goodnight all! can't wait to see what 93l is up to in the morning
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Guess I missed the excitement. On that note, nothing too exciting on the Atlantic side of the tropics at the moment.....93L has quite a ways to go and I am leaning towards non-development......Still forecast to keep moving at 15-20 MPH over the next several days which is a little to fast to get it's act together IMHO.


you are kidding right?

93Ls structure is light years better than it was just 2 days ago; convection is not the only indication of a strengthening system.

Also it is forecast to slow down tomorrow morning
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2709. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129773
i was up all night to watching humbert and with that nne motion it was running up the coast. it was scary ,but from a scientific point of view . A WONDER TO BEHOLD
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Quoting Grothar:
From Wiki


Fastest Intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane: 16 hours - 70 mph to 155 mph - Hurricane Wilma 2005
Maximum pressure drop in 12 hours: 90+mb - Wilma 2005
Maximum pressure drop in 24 hours: 98mb - Wilma 2005 - 1200 UTC October 18 to October 19
Fastest Intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Hurricane: 12 hours - Lorenzo 2007
Fastest Intensification from a Depression to a Category Five Hurricane: 51 Hours - Felix 2007
We watched Wilma ( here in Cayman) do its ramp up over-night to Cat 5/ couldn't believe what we woke to the next morning and only about 140 miles away to the SW at the time.
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2706. angiest
I got no weather from Humberto, I just wish I knew where I was when he hit:

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2705. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
RMSC Miami National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE FERNANDA (EP062011)
8:00 PM PDT August 16 2011
=====================================

SUBJECT: FERNANDA Moving Slowly Westward

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Fernanda (1000 hPa) located at 11.5N 136.2W or 1215 NM east southeast of South Point, Hawaii has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 12.2N 138.6W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.7N 141.8W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
72 HRS: 15.5N 145.5W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
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2704. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
RMSC Miami National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP072011
8:00 PM PDT August 16 2011
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Forecast To Strengthen

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 15.0N 100.8W or 125 NM south southwest of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 16.4N 105.9W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Guess I missed the excitement. On that note, nothing too exciting on the Atlantic side of the tropics at the moment.....93L has quite a ways to go and I am leaning towards non-development......Still forecast to keep moving at 15-20 MPH over the next several days which is a little to fast to get it's act together IMHO.


Oh c'mon u know better:) 93L will be a TS by tomorrow and u know it :)
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I've been on this blog as a lurker for SEVEN years. Thank God for some of you who not only know your stuff but carry yourselves well. Levi sets the standard in expertise and, EQUALLY, refrains from conflict and encourages those like myself who continue to learn. It has been for the most part a blessing to many on here, but this blog needs to right the ship. Have respect with one another and cut the crap! Be willing to disagree and make it something a little more informative AND a little less dramatic and PRIDE-filled. Thanks from "the rest of us!"
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2700. DFWjc
Quoting Thunderpig75:


kilroy was here


Domo Arigato Mr. Roboto...
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thanks keep, just thought that the line looked interesting and was wondering what it was and if it contained high winds.
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Haiti getting dumped on as usual, those people must look to skies sometime and wonder if they have been a forsaken people, just sayin.....
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2697. Grothar
From Wiki:

Hurricane Humberto was a minimal hurricane that formed and intensified faster than any other North Atlantic tropical cyclone on record before landfall. Developing on September 12, 2007, in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical cyclone rapidly strengthened and struck High Island, Texas, with winds of about 90 mph (150 km/h) early on September 13. It steadily weakened after moving ashore, and on September 14 it began dissipating over northwestern Georgia as it interacted with an approaching cold front.

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Wow I must have missed a lot in here tonight :o)
Kinda Glad I waited to come in tonight :o)

Taco :o)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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