Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

Share this Blog
21
+

July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2796 - 2746

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69Blog Index

Thanks for your opinion 23 (if your still on),

Always value it highly.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
2795. Thrawst
Quoting nofailsafe:


I think I recall another storm this season stalling out for a moment.


Don't even get me started with 'it'. lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Came by to take a look :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


I don't think so. The NCAA can't punish them for things that've happened over four years ago. The school is cooperating, doing a joint investigation with the NCAA, and they even reported him to the NCAA last year when him and his attorneys never showed any proof of him doing so.

Plus, the guy did a Ponzi scheme. He's not getting away with any of this.


Uhh, yeah. Tell that to Southern California. Look at 2005 and Reggie Bush. Miami might as well be hit by another Andrew. That's how screwed up their program is right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Measurements Reveal Extent of Leakage from Japan's Damaged Fukushima Reactor

ScienceDaily (Aug. 16, 2011) %u2014 Atmospheric chemists at the University of California, San Diego, report the first quantitative measurement of the amount of radiation leaked from the damaged nuclear reactor in Fukushima, Japan, following the devastating earthquake and tsunami earlier this year.

- - The researchers calculated that 400 billion neutrons were released per square meter surface of the cooling pools, between March 13, when the seawater pumping operation began, and March 20, 2011.

- - Concentrations a kilometer or so above the ocean near Fukushima must have been about 365 times higher than natural levels to account for the levels they observed in California.

Full article: Link



Waves getting bigger in Africa??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
It appears the convection is trying to consolidate over the vort max instead of being all spread out like it has been today.


still is struggling to maintain convection though, we shall see what dmax yields tonight. I would agree it is becoming slightly more symmetric and spin near the vort max is becoming more visible as well IMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Nope you are incorrect, depending on how quick it develops and intensifies will determine the track.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


I don't think so. The NCAA can't punish them for things that've happened over four years ago. The school is cooperating, and they even reported him to the NCAA.

Plus, the guy did a Ponzi scheme. He's not getting away with any of this.


Four words: Lack of institutional control.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting emcf30:
Excerpt from Rob Lightbown's Tropical update this morning. This is in reference to the model trends of the recent Tropical wave that came off Africa

I caution the reader to not focus on each individual model guidance forecast cycle as they will change drastically from day to day. Instead, focus on the trends and the overall pattern which seems to strongly suggest that we are headed for a pattern that consists of a ridge of high pressure in the western United States and a trough of low pressure centered near the Mississippi River Valley in about seven to ten days from now. This pattern seems to also suggest that a western Atlantic high pressure system may strengthen and push westward towards the US East coast during next week and into next weekend. If this is forecast pattern comes true, then any tropical cyclones approaching from the east or southeast like is forecast by the model guidance may potentially impact the US Southeast coast, the Florida Peninsula or the eastern Gulf coast (The Alabama coastline or the Florida Panhandle).


This is so speculative that it isn't worth discussing. "If this forecast comes true". If elephants begin to fly we will all need bigger umbrellas....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L is starting to pop convection on it south side
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Heya 23!

What are you thoughts on the possibility of our first major system to watch over the upcoming days.


Watching wave closely as i see a problematic pattern taking shape that suggests that features out there have an elevated shot to make it across and potentially impact the U.S

If the trough does set up over the OH Valley, like the ENS are showing, it's a possible US threat if something were to develope.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2785. emcf30
Excerpt from Rob Lightbown's Tropical update this morning. This is in reference to the model trends of the recent Tropical wave that came off Africa

I caution the reader to not focus on each individual model guidance forecast cycle as they will change drastically from day to day. Instead, focus on the trends and the overall pattern which seems to strongly suggest that we are headed for a pattern that consists of a ridge of high pressure in the western United States and a trough of low pressure centered near the Mississippi River Valley in about seven to ten days from now. This pattern seems to also suggest that a western Atlantic high pressure system may strengthen and push westward towards the US East coast during next week and into next weekend. If this is forecast pattern comes true, then any tropical cyclones approaching from the east or southeast like is forecast by the model guidance may potentially impact the US Southeast coast, the Florida Peninsula or the eastern Gulf coast (The Alabama coastline or the Florida Panhandle).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hunker, Canes football is done for. *double facepalm*


I don't think so. The NCAA can't punish them for things that've happened over four years ago. The school is cooperating, doing a joint investigation with the NCAA, and they even reported him to the NCAA last year when him and his attorneys never showed any proof of him doing so.

Plus, the guy did a Ponzi scheme. He's not getting away with any of this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:
Its fast forward motion isn't helping.


But it will slowdown soon right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


It's looking kinda bleak for you guys....:^(
Yuppp, Hunker's a gator fan though, so he's probably taking this is great news, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No its not, maintaining a current heading. The fast forward speed is due to the fast trade winds in the portion of the Caribbean, known as the ''dead zone'' that is causing its fast forward speed. Normally, as should be the case here though once it reaches south of Jamaica, there should be some slowing down as there is greater heat buildup and slower trade winds. Its forward speed and lack of a LLC are the two current main inhibitors to development, though both are major problems.


I thought a LLC was developing, and I guess my eyes are playing tricks on me on satellite images.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


It's slowing down.


No its not, maintaining a current heading. The fast forward speed is due to the fast trade winds in the portion of the Caribbean, known as the ''dead zone'' that is causing its fast forward speed. Normally, as should be the case here though once it reaches south of Jamaica, there should be some slowing down as there is greater heat buildup and slower trade winds. Its forward speed and lack of a LLC are the two current main inhibitors to development, though both are major problems.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hunker, Canes football is done for. *double facepalm*


It's looking kinda bleak for you guys....:^(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its other option is to move north towards the central gulf coast.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2776. nigel20
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey, it seems are AOI is holding up quite well tonight.

Yea looking pretty good tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:
Its fast forward motion isn't helping.


It's slowing down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hunker, Canes football is done for. *double facepalm*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2773. centex
Quoting hurricane23:


Massive ridge over texas...Still dont buy any tracks into the gulf for now.
Not even the sw portion of gulf, also known as boc?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
42058



42059

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its fast forward motion isn't helping.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:


Massive ridge over texas...Still dont buy any tracks into the gulf for now.
When you say CA do you mean the Yucatan or farther south?
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting nigel20:

Whats up guys?
Hey, it seems are AOI is holding up quite well tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I guess opposing opinions are not allowed this evening......Good Night Folks.
opinions are one thing and visual evidence does not lie...but total BS is just that, BS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:
93L still looks disorganized to me this evening with little to show at the surface as tpc mentioned earlier. Only has one way to go and thats into CA.


Heya 23!

What are you thoughts on the possibility of our first major system to watch over the upcoming days.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
I guess opposing opinions are not allowed this evening......Good Night Folks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Nope you are incorrect, depending on how quick it develops and intensifies will determine the track.


Massive ridge over texas...Still dont buy any tracks into the gulf for now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


Models have been trending to a more southerly track due to 93L's persistent weakness and the system is being impinged upon from the NE by a large scale ULL. Also there is extreme high pressure across the GOM behind a stationary frontal system that will not allow a much longer track to the west, thsu a forecast of a gradual turn toward the WSW to SW should occur within the next 12 hours.
?????????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:
93L still looks disorganized to me this evening with to show at the surface as tpc mentioned earlier. Only has one way to go and thats into CA.


Nope you are incorrect, depending on how quick it develops and intensifies will determine the track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I sense a disturbance in the blog.

There was something similar in the climate change blog last week. A comment by some Brian person repeated over 900 times in 6 minutes. It was a response to another comment not personal information. I posted a harsh comment about it as did others and the handle was removed later that day. This happened not on the current entry there but the previous one.

I'm not so sure it was spam now. I see that some other handles here besides purplecloud had some repetitions. I hope this is a glitch and not some new way of trolling.

If it is trolls, then wunderground needs to find out from the IPs who is doing this. Cause this will ruin the blogs if it becomes a regular thing.

If it is a glitch then purplecloud and the others should have their handles restored because it wasn't their fault.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Goodnight Weather Warriors
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
has 93L stall sure has not move march
see post 2725, sure looks like it is moving...I would say not to a stall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L still looks disorganized to me this evening with little to show at the surface as tpc mentioned earlier. Only has one way to go and thats into CA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
The ULL you mentioned is showing no signs of affecting 93L at this time on satellite imagery. Outflow is great to the north, due to an anticyclone sitting over 93L.

Also, steering currents show that 93L is rounding the periphery of a ridge to its north, so if anything that weakness will allow a more WNW motion.



And also,it will start to slowdown.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2757. nigel20

Whats up guys?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
.


Great to see you back again. Your posts were sorely missed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


Models have been trending to a more southerly track due to 93L's persistent weakness and the system is being impinged upon from the NE by a large scale ULL. Also there is extreme high pressure across the GOM behind a stationary frontal system that will not allow a much longer track to the west, thsu a forecast of a gradual turn toward the WSW to SW should occur within the next 12 hours.
The ULL you mentioned is showing no signs of affecting 93L at this time on satellite imagery. Outflow is great to the north, due to an anticyclone sitting over 93L.

Also, steering currents show that 93L is rounding the periphery of a ridge to its north, so if anything that weakness will allow a more WNW motion.

Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
and the models have movede further N with 93L nearly ay 15N and maybe sometime during the day on Wed going 16N I don't thing the models will say any further south and it goes further north impacting southern Jam and Grand Cayman


93L starting to fire convection early I have a gut feeling that 93L will have a very good D-Max
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


Models have been trending to a more southerly track due to 93L's persistent weakness and the system is being impinged upon from the NE by a large scale ULL. Also there is extreme high pressure across the GOM behind a stationary frontal system that will not allow a much longer track to the west, thsu a forecast of a gradual turn toward the WSW to SW should occur within the next 12 hours.


What the heck are you talking about, there is no "extreme area of high pressure" It can easily go to the north if it develops quick enough. Your personality kinda shows through your handle
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2752. JLPR2
Quoting serialteg:


little?


Eh, I guess we could go with medium sized.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
has 93L stall sure has not move march


I think I recall another storm this season stalling out for a moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
????? Why would it turn SW? And what signs have you seen that it is turning SW?


Models have been trending to a more southerly track due to 93L's persistent weakness and the system is being impinged upon from the NE by a large scale ULL. Also there is extreme high pressure across the GOM behind a stationary frontal system that will not allow a much longer track to the west, thsu a forecast of a gradual turn toward the WSW to SW should occur within the next 12 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Also, 93L left a little piece of it behind.


little?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
I was here in SULPHUR LA RIGHT ON THE BORDER I REMEMBER MY WIFE WAKING UP THAT MORNING AND SAYING WOW!!!! IT LOOKS LIKE HURRICANE WEATHER OUT THERE LOL SHE DIDNT HAVE A CLUE, BUT IT GOT KINDA NASTY HERE A COUPLE OF HOURS


Stop yelling.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2796 - 2746

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
70 °F
Mostly Cloudy