Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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2846. MTWX
Quoting KoritheMan:


The high and low clouds are blowing in different directions, giving the illusion that there is a spin.

Thanks Kori! I must be tired, my eyes are playing tricks on me...
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2845. das8929
Looks like another big FL hit this run
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By 192 hours, trough lifts out and the subtropical ridge builds westward. Looks like this one's headed into the Gulf:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21162
Quoting tropicfreak:


What the heck are you talking about, there is no "extreme area of high pressure" It can easily go to the north if it develops quick enough. Your personality kinda shows through your handle
Yours too
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The trough has been pretty deep within the models from the start. The difference lies in the longevity and amplitude of this trough. Some runs move it out quickly, others do not.
may miss the connection
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Quoting MTWX:
Anyone notice the low spinning just south of western of Cuba?? Is this just a mid level spin?

Link


The high and low clouds are blowing in different directions, giving the illusion that there is a spin.
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Quoting caneswatch:


I don't think so. The NCAA can't punish them for things that've happened over four years ago. The school is cooperating, doing a joint investigation with the NCAA, and they even reported him to the NCAA last year when him and his attorneys never showed any proof of him doing so.

Plus, the guy did a Ponzi scheme. He's not getting away with any of this.


guess I misunderstood.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting lottotexas:
big trof digging down to swing it N


Not this time around, trough digs down and is gone before you know it
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Quoting FrankZapper:
some weather bigwig said today that there could be a feeding frenzy of hurricanes in the next 2-3 weeks. That will put the blog in "happy mode".


And keep me extremely busy.
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Quoting lottotexas:
big trof digging down to swing it N


The trough has been pretty deep within the models from the start. The difference lies in the longevity and amplitude of this trough. Some runs move it out quickly, others do not.
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some weather bigwig said today that there could be a feeding frenzy of hurricanes in the next 2-3 weeks. That will put the blog in "happy mode".
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2835. MTWX
Anyone notice the low spinning just south of western of Cuba?? Is this just a mid level spin?

Link
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2834. Mucinex
Critter-caster alert:

Crazy, horny singing frogs. They are so loud, I can hear them in my house with the windows closed while wearing head phones.

+

Fat Humidity. Water pouring down your face while you sit perfectly still humidity.

+

Tons of heat lightning. Lake Maracibo-style.

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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

.NOW...
A MOIST AIR MASS WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS GOING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER LAND AREAS UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

Seen this set up more than once this season...Something maybe brewing.

As for the other Hurricanes:
Larry Cocker: I saw nothing = See No Evil
Randy Shannon: No Comment = Speak No Evil

Wether they knew about it or not(doubtful), both their careers just came to an end. I feel bad for Golden and the Jr/Sr players. Miami's program is in for a multi-year ban.


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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Dude, you're in denial....Link


Denial how? Of course they're gonna get punished for the things that've happened post-2007. I never said that they would'nt.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting CybrTeddy:
''Harvey'' and ''Irene'' getting a lot of model support for a second system just off Africa in the coming days too.


That is assuming 93L does not become Harvey first.
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Quoting mcluvincane:


what makes you say that?
big trof digging down to swing it N
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''Harvey'' and ''Irene'' getting a lot of model support for a second system just off Africa in the coming days too.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
and how ironic they are renewing the "Catholics vs Convicts" next year, how fitting...


Hmmmm.....who to root for?
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting lottotexas:
going to miss the east coast on this run


what makes you say that?
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Quoting traumaboyy:


LOL +100


Trauma!! How the heck are ya??
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
6 days out:



The mega-trof on 8/23-24 will be a key player - the Euro really digs it deep. (94L=Earl Jr?)
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At 162 hours we have the main system over Hispañola, and a moderate/strong tropical storm emerging off of Africa, lol.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21162
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Dude, you're in denial....Link


LOL +100
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Quoting MississippiWx:
147...Tracking just south of the Greater Antilles. Of a lot of interest is the strong low the GFS keeps bringing off the African Coast. It's basically a tropical cyclone...

going to miss the east coast on this run
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147...Tracking just south of the Greater Antilles. Of a lot of interest is the strong low the GFS keeps bringing off the African Coast. It's basically a tropical cyclone...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10220
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
6 days out:

its showing that impressive true CV system again...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, I read it a few minutes ago.
and how ironic they are renewing the "Catholics vs Convicts" next year, how fitting...
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6 days out:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21162
135:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10220
Quoting caneswatch:


You can't punish violations that occurred more than four years ago, but however, if the investigation starts within four years, that's another story. The NCAA's investigation of USC started in 2006. That's well within four years. Therefore, they couldn't get away with it.


Dude, you're in denial....Link
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting hunkerdown:
just sent you something, Sun-Sentinel article from 11:50 pm tonight.

09 - let me know if you want to see it though I have a feeling you already have.
Yeah, I read it a few minutes ago.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21162
Quoting CybrTeddy:
00z GFS running.. cyclone by 90 hours.
the only credence I might give these models at this point is that they are consistently showing development. As far as track, timing and location, into the shredder and onto the compost heap.
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108:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10220
00z GFS running.. cyclone by 90 hours.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Brings in the African wave pretty far south...still weak on the approach to the islands.


About the same as the 18z run @ 90hrs
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Quoting caneswatch:


I don't think so. The NCAA can't punish them for things that've happened over four years ago. The school is cooperating, doing a joint investigation with the NCAA, and they even reported him to the NCAA last year when him and his attorneys never showed any proof of him doing so.

Plus, the guy did a Ponzi scheme. He's not getting away with any of this.
just sent you something, Sun-Sentinel article from 11:50 pm tonight.

09 - let me know if you want to see it though I have a feeling you already have.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Still here teddy..no problem

Watching 00z GFS roll in before i call it a night its been a longgg day.


Brings in the African wave pretty far south...still weak on the approach to the islands.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10220
Quoting hunkerdown:
Don't be so sure they will be avoiding punishment. There is breaking news tonight and expect more to surface in the coming days. This stems beyond the ponzi scheme from a couple/few years back.
Exactly why I'm worried.

Quoting MississippiWx:
00z GFS at 90 hours:

A lot further south in this run it appears.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21162
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Thanks for your opinion 23 (if your still on),

Always value it highly.


Still here teddy..no problem

Watching 00z GFS roll in before i call it a night its been a longgg day.
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00z GFS at 90 hours:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10220
Quoting weatherman566:


Uhh, yeah. Tell that to Southern California. Look at 2005 and Reggie Bush. Miami might as well be hit by another Andrew. That's how screwed up their program is right now.


From an ESPN article:

Shapiro's relationship with the program dates back about a decade. Some of the alleged incidents occurred in the past four years, which would be within the NCAA's statute of limitations regarding violations.

Miami officials said that when Shapiro first made his allegations nearly a year ago, he and his attorneys refused to provide any facts to the school.

"The university notified the NCAA enforcement officials of these allegations," the school said in a statement Tuesday morning. "We are fully cooperating with the NCAA and are conducting a joint investigation. The University of Miami takes these matters very seriously."

After Yahoo! Sports posted its story Tuesday afternoon, the university released another statement, saying it "takes any allegations seriously, and will continue to cooperate fully in a joint investigation with the NCAA."


You can't punish violations that occurred more than four years ago, but however, if the investigation starts within four years, that's another story. The NCAA's investigation of USC started in 2006. That's well within four years. Therefore, they couldn't get away with it.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
2805. Dennis8
Quoting tropicfreak:


What the heck are you talking about, there is no "extreme area of high pressure" It can easily go to the north if it develops quick enough. Your personality kinda shows through your handle


Quoting angiest:


Except I can name almost every tropical storm I have been in starting with Charley in 1998.


THAT IS GREAT MEMORY. HURRICANE CELIA WAS WHAT GOT ME TO PURSUE MY METEOROLOGY DEGREE AND I HAVE BEEN IN ABOUT 11 STORMS GIVE OR TAKE ....
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Quoting caneswatch:


I don't think so. The NCAA can't punish them for things that've happened over four years ago. The school is cooperating, doing a joint investigation with the NCAA, and they even reported him to the NCAA last year when him and his attorneys never showed any proof of him doing so.

Plus, the guy did a Ponzi scheme. He's not getting away with any of this.
Don't be so sure they will be avoiding punishment. There is breaking news tonight and expect more to surface in the coming days. This stems beyond the ponzi scheme from a couple/few years back.
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Just as a bridge between 93L's previous mapping (16August_12amGMT) and when 93L might become a truly trackable TropicalCyclone...

August_12amGMT_ATCF : Starting 16August_12amGMT and ending 17August_12amGMT

When 93L's max.sus.winds are nominally 25knots (between 22.5knots(41.7k/h) and 27.5knots(50.9k/h)
and 93L's travel-speeds are averaging
13.6n61.3w-13.7n63.4w -- 23.5mph(37.8k/h)
13.7n63.4w-13.8n65.4w -- 22.5mph(36.2k/h)
13.8n65.4w-14.1n67.4w -- 22.7mph(36.5k/h)
14.1n67.4w-14.5n69.5w -- 23.8mph(38.4k/h)
the remaining 3.3k/h(2.1mph)1.8knots-to-14.7k/h(9.1mph)7.9knots of wind tends to be (mostly-if-not-all) used up fighting wind shear, leaving little-to-no (wind)energy to help align 93L's localized-convections into a self-organizing convection (ie a closed low) that the CoriolisEffect can spin up into a TropicalCyclone.
A sufficiently small max.sus.wind-minus-travelspeed remainder could be overwhelmed by wind-shear; leaving wind-shear to weaken 93L, up-to-and-including dissipation.

Copy&paste svd, 13.6n61.3w-13.7n63.4w, 13.7n63.4w-13.8n65.4w, 13.8n65.4w-14.1n67.4w, 14.1n67.4w-14.5n69.5w, gcm, cbj, rch into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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Quoting hunkerdown:
not yet its not...
the blog is
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Quoting tropicfreak:


It's slowing down.
not yet its not...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hunker, Canes football is done for. *double facepalm*
yeah, I saw it coming and it seems its snowballing even larger than first thought. Not only football, but basketball and possibly the UM president involved. We won't even mention Aubrey hill, who is now coaching in Gainesville (and of course are trying to implicate the involvement of the orange and blue).
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2799. hcubed
Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
SORRY VIOLET IM 75 PERCENT BLIND AND I HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING WHAT I TYPED I WILL try to do better


There are ways to increase the font size without resorting to all caps.
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Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
I quess violent felt bad for making fun of a blind maned . its ok darling you didnt know i was blind i was injure d in hurricane rita..i was hit in the head by my garage door
you have mail
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Thanks for your opinion 23 (if your still on),

Always value it highly.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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