Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, the subtropical ridge is building back towards the west in that image, but if you look at the loop, the trough digs in deeper than the GFS, hence the further north position, and the fact that the system is moving towards the NW (if you look at the loop).
Ok I see what you mean...The ECMWF starts developing it at 120 hrs. around the Northern Leeward Islands, at 168 hrs. here comes the trough to lift it Northwest, at 192 hrs. the trough lifts out, and at 216 hrs. the Subtropical Ridge builds in and continues building in at the end of the run. Gotcha.
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2945. ackee
I thinkif the EASTERN ATlantic wave takes long to devlop could very well be carrb curiser until this label an invest or devlop models will be all over the place
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Quoting barotropic:



Well. If i has a "developing ULL..just to its west (and its apparent on WVL) the proximity of 93l is such that its going to definitely limit its development. Remember, it doesnt have much time before landfall to begin with. IMO.


oh that that is not an UUL or a developing one


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Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
wait guys the florida storm the the models r predicting is not 93l its future 94l in the eastern atl right?
Actually, it'll be dubbed 97L. But yes, the system to watch is the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

maybe so I don't really see it but you may have missed that 93L has a very well established ULAC on top so that should not have a problem it may start ti get a little sheared but only to like maybe 15kts



Well. If i has a "developing ULL..just to its west (and its apparent on WVL) the proximity of 93l is such that its going to definitely limit its development. Remember, it doesnt have much time before landfall to begin with. IMO.
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the only ULL is a weakeing ULL which is now open and moving WNW-NW located near the Yucatan but that is it the only thing thats in the caribbean is the two ULAC one SW Carib and the other on top of 93L
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wait guys the florida storm the the models r predicting is not 93l its future 94l in the eastern atl right?
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Quoting barotropic:


I doubt it......I believe 93 has a dim future. As I mentioned on here yesterday, an ULL appears to be developing just to its west. Southerly shear is about to begin to its west and possibly increase for a day or so. It began to be evident yesterday morning aand is wrapping up this morning. See the WV loop.

maybe so I don't really see it but you may have missed that 93L has a very well established ULAC on top so that should not have a problem it may start ti get a little sheared but only to like maybe 15kts
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Quoting ackee:
I SEE 93L slow down that would really helps the system devlopment wise need some convection from Dmax now thow oh ANY THOUGHT on the BLOB of convection NEAR WINDWARD Island


See post 2936
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
where is the trough? Looks more zonal to me...aren't the purple and pinks higher pressures?
Yeah, the subtropical ridge is building back towards the west in that image, but if you look at the loop, the trough digs in deeper than the GFS, hence the further north position, and the fact that the system is moving towards the NW (if you look at the loop).
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ABOUT @#%&*!^ TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
30% Med

ok so I guess if D-Max helps 93L alot we should expect a 40-60% at the 7am TWO

sorry if I awoken anyone


I doubt it......I believe 93 has a dim future. As I mentioned on here yesterday, an ULL appears to be developing just to its west. Southerly shear is about to begin to its west and possibly increase for a day or so. It began to be evident yesterday morning aand is wrapping up this morning. See the WV loop.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z ECMWF shows a less progressive and more amplified trough juxtaposed against the GFS, hence the recurvature.

where is the trough? Looks more zonal to me...aren't the purple and pinks higher pressures?
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2934. ackee
I SEE 93L slow down that would really helps the system devlopment wise need some convection from Dmax now thow oh ANY THOUGHT on the BLOB of convection NEAR WINDWARD Island
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00z ECMWF shows a less progressive and more amplified trough juxtaposed against the GFS, hence the recurvature.

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Quoting GetReal:






The wave train is picking up steam!!!
They're going to start coming off as low pressure.
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2931. GetReal






The wave train is picking up steam!!!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Agreed. I kind of see it coming toward the Yucatan Peninsula.

oreven between the Yucatan and Cuba
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Found this on Google home page, its from Fermat's last theorem.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I don't buy the South and West track of 93L so much


Agreed. I kind of see it coming toward the Yucatan Peninsula.
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I don't buy the South and West track of 93L so much
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2926. GetReal
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2925. crunja


'July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record..'

&


Ireland - Coldest June and July in 50 years - 3 Aug 11
Chile - Wettest winter in decades - 3 Aug 11
Dublin - Coldest July in 46 years - 1 Aug 11
So much snow that WSDOT can't plow it all - 3 Aug 11
Mt Rainier: Snow-covered trails above 5,000ft -Aug 11
Portland OR - Coldest July in 20 years - 1 Aug 11
Glacier National Park - All that snow and they're still in denial - 31 July 11



Rasmussen: 69% Believe Scientists Have Falsified Global Warming Research
3 Aug 11 - Sixty-nine percent of American adults say it%u2019s at least somewhat likely that some scientists have falsified research data in order to support their own theories and beliefs.


iceagenow.com

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Quoting 34chip:
I know its just a model run, but I dislike it coming over the Florida keys or anywhere, but more because I live in the florida keys.


Our only consolation is that it's such a long way out, the steering will change.
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Quoting weathercat64:

Dynamic Models
Pretty good consensus here, should stay well south of Jamaica and continue moving west, slowing down some.
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Quoting Gearsts:
Quoting weathercat64:


boy them dry air pocket is getting smailler and smailler by the frame
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yep 93L need alot of help from D-Max it has very good,stacked vort from 925, 850, 700, and 500 mb it has the ULAC overhead
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2919. 34chip
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Just west of Tampa at 252 hrs, 982 mb:

I know its just a model run, but I dislike it coming over the Florida keys or anywhere, but more because I live in the florida keys.
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2918. Gearsts
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Quoting nofailsafe:


The original DEFCON goes from 5 being the lowest to 1. Similarly, HURCON goes the same way from 4 to 1.


Thanks
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Quoting Eyewall07:


Which is worse 1 or 5 b


The original DEFCON goes from 5 being the lowest to 1. Similarly, HURCON goes the same way from 4 to 1.
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Quoting nofailsafe:


4 for now.


Which is worse 1 or 5 b
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Just west of Tampa at 252 hrs, 982 mb:

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Dynamic Models
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Quoting Vincent4989:
DOOMCON level?


4 for now.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Very much so. Chances that it becomes a hurricane are quite slim.

Surrounded by dry air on...... all directions
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What's up with Fernanda?
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right now 93L need some major help from D-Max
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2908. nigel20
Quoting Vincent4989:

Fernanda, the weakest one of all, is ruining the EPAC hurricane party.

Yea its looking pretty bad at the moment.
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Quoting nigel20:
Hey guys, Is dry air affecting Fernanda?
Very much so. Chances that it becomes a hurricane are quite slim.
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Quoting nigel20:
Hey guys, Is dry air affecting Fernanda?

Fernanda, the weakest one of all, is ruining the EPAC hurricane party.
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looking at resent sat looks like 93L is starting to slowdown
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2904. nigel20
Hey guys, Is dry air affecting Fernanda?
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DOOMCON level?
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ABOUT @#%&*!^ TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
30% Med

ok so I guess if D-Max helps 93L alot we should expect a 40-60% at the 7am TWO

sorry if I awoken anyone
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2901. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)



looks like a poss T.C.F.A. coming up
now 30 percent
off to bed i go
see ya all in the morning
around 8 am
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Good Evening
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About time, 30%.
LOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING IN THIS REGION. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN A FEW
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
00Z CMC keeps it weak and on a predominant westward course throughout the run. 144 hours:



00z NOGAPS also keeps it weak, but has it over the western Bahamas in 180 hours.

00z NOGAPS

Waiting on that ECMWF that should start running in about 30 minutes or so.
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2897. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Skyepony:
Lighting offshore of East Central FL is impressive. I can see it from here.
hello sky you are up late tonight have not seen you too much on here the last little while
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2896. Skyepony (Mod)
Lighting offshore of East Central FL is impressive. I can see it from here.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.