Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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2996. msphar
Looks like Fernanda will be a remnant Low by the end of the current forecast period. Killed by cold water and stable air conditions.
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2995. scott39
Goodmorning, Dry air for now seems to be the lion tamer. Im going to take a "wait and see" attitude with these AOI coming off Africa. The current theme with these models are to develope these invests into hurricanes, once past 60W-65W. This is not happening. Im not saying it wont, but for me jumping on board with models right out of the gate seems unrealistic.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6860
2994. MahFL
The "Jaws" music just started playing in my head, you pretty know something bad is about to happen and you can't stop it, as the time ticks by the tension mounts !
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Quoting islander101010:
we need a tropical storm in the gulf to cool it off before the cape verdes arrives it virgin hot right now


LOL, that's a good way of putting it.
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Reed did you read my earlier post?Not to pick on you for I like you seem to be a fine young man.bu this constant doom for the east coast is starting to sound like cloudtops doom forecast for new orleans all the time.Have you looked how far south this wave is?You know its quite possibe this wave ,if it develops, it might take the same path as 93l.Also you remember deans early forecasts?How about Ike.Katrina?Imho this is very far south,moving fast,and probably will not develop till it gets to the western carrib.nOT EVERY STORM HITS THE EAST COAST OR NEW orleans.Im afraid its our poor friends in the islands that will take the brunt.Sorry to sound negative,but like I said you seem to be a fine young man,but you might want to step back and look how many times you doom the east coast.Anyways good day and God Bless.
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2991. WxLogic
As Miami... mentioned ECMWF shows a departing TROF pulling P17L further N but a building High filling the void which would induce a bit more of a WNW before attempting to find another weakness to sneak through:



Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
we need a tropical storm in the gulf to cool it off before the cape verdes arrives it virgin hot right now unusual to get a strong one making landfall in the big bend area if you live in s. fl. good time to stock up
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2989. ncstorm
some of the models, ECWMF for one are predicting a extratropical storm to develop off the front sitting on the east coast now but here is what the Japanese model is saying as well..this will be another area to watch

JMA model


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2988. WxLogic
Quoting reedzone:
Persistence is the key and the GFS continues to be persistent on a storm hitting Florida.. A little over 200 hours and a little under 300 hours.

06Z GFS (still running) 240 hours.



This is what it's developing...



The wave on the right side of the map is the critter. We may see this be tagged 97L very shortly.


I agree with you... I've personally haven't seen GFS being so consistent (track wise) as no model is good intensity wise in 4 to a little over 4 runs straight already.

Will be interesting if 12Z continues.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
2987. ncstorm
Quoting mcluvincane:


I do to. Being we are both from the same area, we both know when a storm gets past a "certain point" west and starts coming north, we are in trouble. It's been a while...


yes it has..thats why I am watching this one..as I said yesterday, I cant see the models dropping this storm now..I think development is immenient, the question is who will be affected..the islands look to be the first people who will have to deal with this storm later this week
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Quoting reedzone:
Persistence is the key and the GFS continues to be persistent on a storm hitting Florida.. A little over 200 hours and a little under 300 hours.

06Z GFS (still running) 240 hours.



This is what it's developing...



The wave on the right side of the map is the critter. We may see this be tagged 97L very shortly.


Reed, you got the paid site for GFS, if so can you link it to me? TIA Very concerning to say the least
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Quoting ncstorm:


I think the GFS is having a hard time reading the trough..00 and 06 runs always take into the farther west while the 12Z and 18Z runs keeps it on the east coast..The CMC has slowed down development and only gets it the FL East coast at the end of the run..the ECWMF has been consistent showing it off the east coast always at the end of the run..the NOGAPS only show development of a storm off the front sitting of the east cost..I just hope if and when this develops that the models do come in agreement especially if this is heading toward the land masses..


I do to. Being we are both from the same area, we both know when a storm gets past a "certain point" west and starts coming north, we are in trouble. It's been a while...
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Today marks the 42 aniversary of the most powerful hurricane to hit the US mainland.Over 250 people parrished.28 people out of 29 died at the riechielu apartments in pass Chrisian.They had a huuricane party,like a lot of bloggers on here they were excited about a storm.Anyways may the continue to rest in peace.In response to Cloudtop who I quote "said who cares about Camille, who wants to remember that? Thats why I remember.


There is a recording that has one of the people who stayed at that complex talking to a reporter who was questioning them about why they were staying. Its a shame but the person talking to the reporter was one of the 28 who was dead less than 24 hours later. Bad decision to say the least.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
Persistence is the key and the GFS continues to be persistent on a storm hitting Florida.. A little over 200 hours and a little under 300 hours.

06Z GFS (still running) 240 hours.



This is what it's developing...



The wave on the right side of the map is the critter. We may see this be tagged 97L very shortly.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


At times, models will show certain things that don't happen, but the consistency of both the GFS and the ECMWF is something that is slightly worrying.


Tell me about it, I know. It's been like this for a couple of days now. Both have been consistent with a strong cyclone nearing the CONUS. It seems they don't want to let go of this feature.
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Today marks the 42 aniversary of the most powerful hurricane to hit the US mainland.Over 250 people parrished.28 people out of 29 died at the riechielu apartments in pass Chrisian.They had a huuricane party,like a lot of bloggers on here they were excited about a storm.Anyways may the continue to rest in peace.In response to Cloudtop who I quote "said who cares about Camille, who wants to remember that? Thats why I remember.
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2980. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
2979. ncstorm
Quoting mcluvincane:
ECMWF 00z Run at 240hrs



GFS 00z Run at 240hrs



I think the GFS is having a hard time reading the trough..00 and 06 runs always take into the farther west while the 12Z and 18Z runs keeps it on the east coast..The CMC has slowed down development and only gets it the FL East coast at the end of the run..the ECWMF has been consistent showing it off the east coast always at the end of the run..the NOGAPS only show development of a storm off the front sitting of the east cost..I just hope if and when this develops that the models do come in agreement especially if this is heading toward the land masses..
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Quoting mcluvincane:
ECMWF 00z Run at 240hrs



GFS 00z Run at 240hrs



At times, models will show certain things that don't happen, but the consistency of both the GFS and the ECMWF is something that is slightly worrying.
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ECMWF 00z Run at 240hrs



GFS 00z Run at 240hrs

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Quoting MahFL:



What do you mean by abnormal ?

More active season...
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Yeah, and also with DMAX. Hispaniola's mountains probably caused some of the loss of convection.


Developing ULL to its WSW seems to be moving in tandem with it...although if 93L doesnt slow down it may begin to be affected by southerly sheer (see WVL floater).
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
2974. MahFL
Quoting barotropic:


I... in a year which abnormal activity is expected.



What do you mean by abnormal ?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


IMO, the Gulf Coast is also at risk. I would say there is a roughly equal chance of a strike anywhere from southeast Louisiana to North Carolina.


I dont know that any of this is really a "developement" or news lets say. Common climatology as we approach the end of August suggests a reasonable chance that someone in the areas u suggested is likely to be affected by a cyclone. Should really not be a surprise to anyone especially in a year which abnormal activity is expected.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
Good morning, everyone. I see they think Fernando may go near Hawaii. And that the models for 93L have shifted once again. I expect they'll shift at least once more. Glad to see the room back to normal.
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Quoting farupnorth:


It's under Hispaniola at the moment. I expect it to refire when proceeding westward due to slowdown and better inflow.


Yeah, and also with DMAX. Hispaniola's mountains probably caused some of the loss of convection.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Perhaps now some of the people from last night will believe me when I said it was losing convection.

Circulation looks better though, expect it to fire up through today.


It's under Hispaniola at the moment. I expect it to refire when proceeding westward due to slowdown and better inflow.
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The models do seem to show some consistency with P17L being near the SE coast of FL. Where it goes from there will depend on where the trough is located etc. Going by the models looks like the alleyway could be anywhere from the E GOM to the EC.
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Quoting robert88:
The way this season is going i wouldn't be surprised if P17L is a repeat of 93L. The models may may lose interest once it gets further west and if it doesn't start developing.
increases the odds of a conus hit but only if they can get a spin going at the surface. 93 another tropical storm moving into belise
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Quoting robert88:
00Z EURO shows P17L a lot weaker and it really doesn't get going until it gets close to the Bahamas...makes sense
Looks like 93's COC is about to pass 75Ant.
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00Z EURO shows P17L a lot weaker and it really doesn't get going until it gets close to the Bahamas...makes sense
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Quoting robert88:
The way this season is going i wouldn't be surprised if P17L is a repeat of 93L. The models may may lose interest once it gets further west and if it doesn't start developing.
That's pretty much what the models foresee though...no development until around 60˚W.
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The way this season is going i wouldn't be surprised if P17L is a repeat of 93L. The models may may lose interest once it gets further west and if it doesn't start developing.
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Still looks like 50W until we see development with P17L. It may take further W than that to get get going. Conditions still not conducive for development in the E Atlantic with all the SAL in place. The SAL graph shows P17L is ingesting dust like a vacuum cleaner. :)

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Perhaps now some of the people from last night will believe me when I said it was losing convection.

Circulation looks better though, expect it to fire up through today.
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Quoting weathercat64:

Here comes another one...

that wave reminded me of 91L
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Quoting reedzone:
The EURO keeps brining the potential storm near Florida as some sort of Hurricane, as well as the GFS... I don't believe (if it develops) that this one is gonna sweep out to sea like the rest have so far this season.. I also don't believe (if it develops) that it will be weak like the rest have... Gonna be one interesting week next week. Someone on the Coastline from Florida to Long Island is going to have a storm around the end of next week or so (if it deveops).


IMO, the Gulf Coast is also at risk. I would say there is a roughly equal chance of a strike anywhere from southeast Louisiana to North Carolina.
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The EURO keeps brining the potential storm near Florida as some sort of Hurricane, as well as the GFS... I don't believe (if it develops) that this one is gonna sweep out to sea like the rest have so far this season.. I also don't believe (if it develops) that it will be weak like the rest have... Gonna be one interesting week next week. Someone on the Coastline from Florida to Long Island is going to have a storm around the end of next week or so (if it deveops).
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Quoting SCwannabe:
what is the blob east of the lesser antilles? Looking quite impressive.

It's the blob that split from the tail of 93L.
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what is the blob east of the lesser antilles? Looking quite impressive.
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I can see 93L LLC at 14.9N 72.0W moving W-WNW
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2955. LargoFl
NHC HAS 93L GOING FOR CENTRAL AMERICA LOOKS LIKE IN A STRAIGHT LINE AS OF 4AM WENS EST
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmmmm.... This explains the rain in our forecast.....



Morning all.
I believe that's the energy that split off of Gert a few days ago and traveled westward. Looks like a rainy day is in store for you guys.
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Hmmmmm.... This explains the rain in our forecast.....



Morning all.
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Here comes another one...
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Ok I'm out everybody, good night, we'll see what tomorrow has in store for us.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ok I see what you mean...The ECMWF starts developing it at 120 hrs. around the Northern Leeward Islands, at 168 hrs. here comes the trough to lift it Northwest, at 192 hrs. the trough lifts out, and at 216 hrs. the Subtropical Ridge builds in and continues building in at the end of the run. Gotcha.
Yup, that's about it.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


oh that that is not an UUL or a developing one




I believe you....but what is it.....its pretty dominant on WV....much more so the 93l. It looks to me like its about to close off.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
the only ULL is a weakeing ULL which is now open and moving WNW-NW located near the Yucatan but that is it the only thing thats in the caribbean is the two ULAC one SW Carib and the other on top of 93L


Ok so maybe you can explain what the counter clockwise spin clearly evident on WV at UL's which is about to close off just west of 93l. Yesterday is was just begining to be evident, today its much more apparent.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:
wait guys the florida storm the the models r predicting is not 93l its future 94l in the eastern atl right?


Yes.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, the subtropical ridge is building back towards the west in that image, but if you look at the loop, the trough digs in deeper than the GFS, hence the further north position, and the fact that the system is moving towards the NW (if you look at the loop).
Ok I see what you mean...The ECMWF starts developing it at 120 hrs. around the Northern Leeward Islands, at 168 hrs. here comes the trough to lift it Northwest, at 192 hrs. the trough lifts out, and at 216 hrs. the Subtropical Ridge builds in and continues building in at the end of the run. Gotcha.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.