Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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2238. scott39
Quoting mcluvincane:


Yeah, GFS and ECMWF continue to show a powerful Hurricane which is very concerning. I am taking this very serious now. I am ready though, might need to stock up on some more supplies though.
Hurricane Season is something everyone who lives on and Island or the Coast... need to take serious. The models will change many times. You need to always have a plan in place and stay tuned.
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long rg. out of san juan there are some thunderstorms with 93 very little twist
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
All of the models showing the N Cent GOM hit...Is that 93L, or an as yet to be determined disturbance?
That is the wave that came off Africa on Sunday.
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they proberly will reschedule for this evening as this develops this AM.
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All of the models showing the N Cent GOM hit...Is that 93L, or an as yet to be determined disturbance?
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this blog will explode too a point too where you can keep up with commets
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2231. WxLogic
GFS appears to be becoming increasingly consistent and not jumping the system back and forward. 00Z and 06Z are pretty much similar. We'll see how 12Z fairs.

In regards ECMWF. The 00Z shows future "H" getting possibly trapped under a 588 height as the E CONUS TROF lifts off:



Will remain to be seen if its able to break that bridge and go out to sea. For comparison sakes... here's yesterday's 12Z:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
buoy 42059 is reporting pressure drop
I guess they will cancel the HH flight today. 93L doesn't look organized enough to warrant it.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
Hi Ike.

Landfall: 958mb


Strong Cat 3?
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looks like captain america fist LOL
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buoy 42059 is reporting pressure drop
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It looks like 93L has a shield in front of it to protect it from dry air.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
look for RI to soon happen.
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Quoting scott39:
93L and the other 7 Dwarfs were and are a warm up for whats to come. GET READY!


Yeah, GFS and ECMWF continue to show a powerful Hurricane which is very concerning. I am taking this very serious now. I am ready though, might need to stock up on some more supplies though.
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2222. WxLogic
Good Morning...
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2221. scott39
You better have fast internet, when this blog explodes!
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
covection starting to pull together on 93L, there is nothing i see to sto development look for it to slow as it gets it act together.


Buoy in vicinity of 93L not showing any large pressure drops but quite high winds:

Link
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look for RI to soon happen.
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2218. scott39
93L and the other 7 Dwarfs were and are a warm up for whats to come. GET READY!
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Quoting scott39:
Thanks for that picture Ike...it gives me a false sense of security compared to the bright red one! LOL
Scott I am with you on that.I dont like the color red.LOL
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Quoting IKE:
Time to rock and roll.....


looks like a cat 2 or a 3?
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2215. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Time to rock and roll.....


Thanks for that picture Ike...it gives me a false sense of security compared to the bright red one! LOL
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2214. IKE
Time to rock and roll.....


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2213. scott39
Quoting mcluvincane:
OUCH,

That looks like the end the world for the N Gulf Coast! That red back ground makes it look even worse! LOL
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Oops, when it hits me it's on the last page. But as Scott said, it'll be another's backyard on the next run.
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covection starting to pull together on 93L, there is nothing i see to sto development look for it to slow as it gets it act together.
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One of the great things about different models is they each have a different idea. There are four on this page and each has a different area being hit. I, personally, don't like the first one posted. Guess we'll know more next week.
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2209. scott39
Quoting robert88:
Ouch...
That looks like it hits in my backyard! LOL It will be in somebody elses on the next run.
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Quoting robert88:
Ouch...


LOL, we are thinkink the same this A.M.
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1349
OUCH,

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Ouch...
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93? mongomery research group says ECMWF: Slight intensification for two days, then weakening. Very tiny pouch at the end. As a matter of fact, beyond 84 hours, multiple potential pouches are depicted, with a tiny pouch with higher OW values being a bit north of the large OW max that was probably the original pouch; hence the slight northward shift. (In retrospect, maybe I should have continued tracking the larger, southern OW max into Nicaragua.) Again, these are tiny features that other models may even depict!

GFS: Small, temporary intensification at 48 hours when 93L "merges" with the environmental circulation on the Venezuelan coast. development is not expected
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06z GFS is out, still says DOOM
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Not much SAL for 93L to contend with any longer.




Vorticity looking more consolidated.



Low shear and still has the anti-cyclone protecting it.
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In case you didn't open link,

From crown weather

Tropical Disturbance In The Eastern Atlantic:
Satellite imagery from the eastern Atlantic and western Africa showed that the tropical disturbance that emerged off of Africa yesterday continues to exhibit signs that it will likely develop into a tropical cyclone (Irene??) later on down the road. Water vapor satellite loops indicate that this disturbance is enveloped within a very moist environment, which is something that previous disturbances did not have.

All of the global model guidance are very consistent with developing this disturbance into a tropical cyclone once it gets past 50 or 55 West Longitude late this weekend. The latest GFS model run has a forecast that takes this system across the northeastern Caribbean early next week as an intensifying tropical cyclone and then into south Florida and the Tampa area as a powerful hurricane around August 27. The latest European model guidance forecasts this system to track across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico early next week and then forecasts this system to be a strong hurricane very close to the Turks and Caicos islands next Thursday. It is very notable and somewhat worrisome that the European model has been consistently forecasting this strong of a tropical cyclone near the Greater Antilles and the southeastern Bahamas; especially since the European model has not shown any significant development all season long.

I caution the reader to not focus on each individual model guidance forecast cycle as they will change drastically from day to day. Instead, focus on the trends and the overall pattern which seems to strongly suggest that we are headed for a pattern that consists of a ridge of high pressure in the western United States and a trough of low pressure centered near the Mississippi River Valley in about seven to ten days from now. This pattern seems to also suggest that a western Atlantic high pressure system may strengthen and push westward towards the US East coast during next week and into next weekend. If this is forecast pattern comes true, then any tropical cyclones approaching from the east or southeast like is forecast by the model guidance may potentially impact the US Southeast coast, the Florida Peninsula or the eastern Gulf coast (The Alabama coastline or the Florida Panhandle).

So, for now, this is something that needs to be watched very closely. I do think that the Hurricane Season is about to get very to extremely active with potentially several hurricanes on the map at the same time sometime between late August and the first couple of weeks of September. Looking at the overall pattern during the 8 to 10 day timeframe, it appears that it sets up so that the Florida peninsula is at most risk from any approaching tropical cyclones, however, an area from Pensacola, Florida to Charleston, South Carolina is also at a significant risk from any approaching storms.

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Quoting thegoldenstrand:
93L should turn into a TD if it flares up around the center of its circulation as it crosses the very warm eddy over the next couple hours, but if it keeps up the current speed with little cloud cover without flaring up over its now identifiable circulation.... looks like it will run into the Yucatan as a tropical storm to weak hurricane at best... then reform in the western Gulf and hopefully give Texas and Oklahoma some needed showers as a tropical storm.
a epac development more likely only one model likes it. it headed towards hi. spammers are out this morning again
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I like Crown Weather a lot. He is painting a picture of a real threat in the next 10 days or so. However, he did the same with 93L a week ago.
He is still expecting development from 93L but closer to Jamaica.
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Link

Good morning. Crown Weather Discussion.
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Good morning, everyone. Next week looks like it could be an interesting one. But I think we may still have a lot of 'next week's to come before the season is over.
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ooohhh crap!!!! this dont look good
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Quoting mcluvincane:


scary stuff next week. If models pan out which they have been very consistant the last 3 runs. The east coast will have a Hurricane to deal with in the near future.


I think its almost a no brainer that there is likely to be a hurricane out there, or two , but put almost ZERO weight on east coast, gulf coast or any coast for landfall at this point out that far. Dont need a model for that...climatology is enough to say..."could be".
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Although it's warm and toasty there to make toast for storms,This loop, when you check the box "NCEP Fronts" will show a blue capital H with the numbers 1015 over the GOM.
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Good morning... Time for some coffee and a pop tart (brown sugar and cinnamon)























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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.