Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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2288. srada
I will be back for next model run guys! Time for work! I have a feeling that the SE coast is about to be looking down the barrel of a loaded gun, stay SAFE!
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2287. shawn26
Is the monster hurricane the GFS is showing the wave that is coming off of Africa right now or another wave that is supposed to be coming off soon?
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2285. scott39
Quoting P451:


Broad mid-level rotation. 93L has a ways to go for development. Give it another 5-10 degrees longitude. Then if it persists you may see organization increase.





It didn't do much with this DMax cycle but it's not in a region known for development so it's of no consequence. Just enough to know the system still exists.
Is it slowing down some?
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Agree. Like I was saying about preps... June 1 you enter the season prepared; however, nobody is 100% ready to execute a plan because there will always be things to do real-time as a system approaches.

The readiness posture naturally should increase incrementally with the threat risk, until ultimately you are evacuating or sheltering in-place.

Being aware of the long-term solutions puts you a leg up, should it progress to a point where awareness campaigns begin in earnest in the media, etc.


Couldn't of said it any better
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2283. scott39
Quoting serialteg:


(shivers)
Are you cold? LOL
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Quoting srada:


this is not a two week storm right now..by the weekend, it should be affecting the islands and we should know if this will be a westward track or curve to the SE coast..


+1000
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GOES East Rapid Scan Operation (RSO) loop on 93L. Provides 8 images per hour. As the day goes on you can change the position and number of frames by editing the data in your address bar, which should be the following code:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?sat ellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14.0&lon=-61.3&zoom=1&in fo=vis&quality=100&width=800&height=600&type=Anima tion&numframes=12
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2278. WxLogic
Well... given current 93L performance. I believe NHC would leave it at 20%, but I could go as high as 30% @ 8AM. It truly has a nice upper level outflow for this type of INVEST.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
2277. srada
Quoting hurricane23:


People should be aware regardless not because models 2 weeks out in time show a hurricane heading for the U.S. we are approaching the peak of the hurricane season and a prepardness plan should have been in place june1 if you live in a vulnerble area prone to hurricanes.


this is not a two week storm right now..by the weekend, it should be affecting the islands and we should know if this will be a westward track or curve to the SE coast..
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Quoting scott39:
Models ... are the BEST guide and tool for forecasters now.


(shivers)
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Quoting robert88:
I don't think we will get much development in the E Atlantic for a while. There are slightly cooler water temps out there than last season and more SAL. I believe we will see more development further W for the majority of this season imo. I am thinking around the 50W mark things take off.


Agree, that is a bad recipe for the U.S. though.
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2274. WxLogic
Quoting farupnorth:
93 L has pretty good spin. Hard to determine at what level though:

Link


Is at Mid levels. Enable the "WND" check box and you'll see that at low levels there appears to be a LLC trying to get establish but not closed yet. So that leave you with a Mid level circulation:

500MB:


The MLC has a stronger signature than the low level vorticity:

850MB:
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
Quoting shawn26:
93L is definitely tightening up.



sure is
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The models have done as well as expected. We are just getting to the meat of the season.

Patience...see the dust flow. Clear, the dust will. Cyclone, might it develop.
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2271. shawn26
93L is definitely tightening up.
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Also, by people posting future model guidence gives a look of what COULD happen not what will happen. Not that we put much stock in them, just something for people to be aware.


People should be aware regardless not because models 2 weeks out in time show a hurricane heading for the U.S. we are approaching the peak of the hurricane season and a prepardness plan should have been in place june1 if you live in a vulnerble area prone to hurricanes.
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for us sal is bad they get farther west
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2267. scott39
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Thanks adrian(23) and Bartopic for keeping it real.Like adrian said 50 to 55 west to get going seems like a good bet.If that comes to pass could travel the same route as 93l.And unless ive missed something this not a storm,depression,invest or even a colored circle.It amazes me how many fortune tellers we have out here due to a computer model.Heck if you all are that good at predicting the future,then i wish you would set up a stock market blog.That would be of great importance right now to a lot of people.Not picking on anyone,just reality.Can we ever just wait till we have a body to track not just a spirit.On the rob from Crown Weather,he seems like a knowledgable and very nice guy:but last year he preached the same tune.Sometimes i think he gets reed to do some of his disscussions lol.And i like Reed by the way.Ike good morning help keep it real as always.Good day, and God bless.
Its the respect of a hurricane for me, and I would give a model more credibilty than a fortune teller. Some people do get excited on here, whether its because they have been through one and are nervous, or they havent and want one.
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I don't think we will get much development in the E Atlantic for a while. There are slightly cooler water temps out there than last season and more SAL. I believe we will see more development further W for the majority of this season imo. I am thinking around the 50W mark things take off.
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2265. WxLogic
Pretty decent cyclonic turning with P17L.

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
check out last couple of frames of 93L images, you will see circ center tightening.


yup
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Also, by people posting future model guidence gives a look of what COULD happen not what will happen. Not that we put much stock in them, just something for people to be aware.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
Yes although we kind of see what could pass for some consistency and agreement in the modeling, it remains in question because of the long-range nature of the solutions.

Should serve to perk some heads up, certainly will here with my team. This is why long-range models have a purpose... if the solution continues we can easily see the necessity to prepare mightily in the few days prior. (meaning execute FINAL preps, as planned)
you out of macdill here in tpa???
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2260. ncstorm
Good Morning Everyone..

I know the african storm is long range but we have model support from the GFS, ECWMF, CMC



I think the question is who will get the storm, not will the storm develop
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Thanks adrian(23) and Bartopic for keeping it real.Like adrian said 50 to 55 west to get going seems like a good bet.If that comes to pass could travel the same route as 93l.And unless ive missed something this not a storm,depression,invest or even a colored circle.It amazes me how many fortune tellers we have out here due to a computer model.Heck if you all are that good at predicting the future,then i wish you would set up a stock market blog.That would be of great importance right now to a lot of people.Not picking on anyone,just reality.Can we ever just wait till we have a body to track not just a spirit.On the rob from Crown Weather,he seems like a knowledgable and very nice guy:but last year he preached the same tune.Sometimes i think he gets reed to do some of his disscussions lol.And i like Reed by the way.Ike good morning help keep it real as always.Good day, and God bless.


Granted, keeping it real here also, but when two of the most reliable computer models develope a system in the same area, same time frame is worth getting some attention IMO.
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Quoting Contrarian:


Why do the models seem to be doing such a bad job this year?


Generally, the models don't do as well with weaker storms so it makes since that there would be more model divergence so far this year.
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93 L has pretty good spin. Hard to determine at what level though:

Link
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Quoting sporteguy03:

ECMWF develops it in that area.


They way the globals have performed this season thus far until i actually see a strengthening cane on an IR map its not worth putting to much stock on for the time being. For now it will have dry air and saharan dust to deal with.

Model skill that far out in any model whether its the ECM or GFS is actually quite poor in my book.
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Thanks adrian(23) and Bartopic for keeping it real.Like adrian said 50 to 55 west to get going seems like a good bet.If that comes to pass could travel the same route as 93l.And unless ive missed something this not a storm,depression,invest or even a colored circle.It amazes me how many fortune tellers we have out here due to a computer model.Heck if you all are that good at predicting the future,then i wish you would set up a stock market blog.That would be of great importance right now to a lot of people.Not picking on anyone,just reality.Can we ever just wait till we have a body to track not just a spirit.On the rob from Crown Weather,he seems like a knowledgable and very nice guy:but last year he preached the same tune.Sometimes i think he gets reed to do some of his disscussions lol.And i like Reed by the way.Ike good morning help keep it real as always.Good day, and God bless.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
2253. scott39
Quoting Contrarian:
I think we can officially call it now with the decline of Gert- 2011 has broken the record for most named storms in a row without a hurricane.

So the questions we should be asking, but mostly aren't, are-

Why aren't any of the storms developing this year?

Why do the models seem to be doing such a bad job this year?
Not only have they consistently overestimated storms, but seem to have fluctuated wildly in their predictions.

Are the models committing random errors, or are they systematically overestimating hurricane numbers and strength for political reasons?
After seeing their estimates for the last several years it seems that you could make a pretty good case for the latter.
Models are not perfect, although they have helped to save many lives! They are the BEST guide and tool for forecasters now. The political statement you made is at best.... a paranoid delusional conspiracy therory.
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Quoting Contrarian:
I think we can officially call it now with the decline of Gert- 2011 has broken the record for most named storms in a row without a hurricane.

So the questions we should be asking, but mostly aren't, are-

Why aren't any of the storms developing this year?

Why do the models seem to be doing such a bad job this year?
Not only have they consistently overestimated storms, but seem to have fluctuated wildly in their predictions.

Are the models committing random errors, or are they systematically overestimating hurricane numbers and strength for political reasons?
After seeing their estimates for the last several years it seems that you could make a pretty good case for the latter.


We have had seven develope. Just because they were not hurricanes doesn't mean the were not developed systems. Reason they were weak because of many factors, dry air, SAL, shear. That is fixing to change as we head into the peak
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check out last couple of frames of 93L images, you will see circ center tightening.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
buoy 42059 is reporting pressure drop


That looks diurnal as it was the same yesterday at that time.

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2248. tramp96
Quoting USAFwxguy:
00Z ECMWF and 06Z GFS in very close agreement at 240:




Where do you get these maps?
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2247. WxLogic
In regards 93L. Is not doing so bad, it has decreased in forward speed (to from what I can tell 10 to 15MPH).

It definitely has mid level circulation and a LLC getting better established. Convergence and Divergence are not great but is there.





If it decides to develop and remains weak then it'll definitely not be able to feel the weakness to the N of it and head down to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
I think we can officially call it now with the decline of Gert- 2011 has broken the record for most named storms in a row without a hurricane.

So the questions we should be asking, but mostly aren't, are-

Why aren't any of the storms developing this year?

Why do the models seem to be doing such a bad job this year?
Not only have they consistently overestimated storms, but seem to have fluctuated wildly in their predictions.

Are the models committing random errors, or are they systematically overestimating hurricane numbers and strength for political reasons?
After seeing their estimates for the last several years it seems that you could make a pretty good case for the latter.
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Quoting hurricane23:


200+hr gfs maps aren't likely to verify. May want to look at the SAL currently plaguing the eastern atl. Don't see much in the way of development till 50-55W.

ECMWF develops it in that area.
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Good Morning,

Any thoughts on the waves coming off of africa?
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I'm off to school, last day of all day testing the kids. Everyone have a great Tuesday.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
Hi Ike.

Landfall: 958mb


200+hr gfs maps aren't likely to verify. May want to look at the SAL currently plaguing the eastern atl. Don't see much in the way of development till 50-55W.
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Looks like they all consistently develop it.

Game on
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2238. scott39
Quoting mcluvincane:


Yeah, GFS and ECMWF continue to show a powerful Hurricane which is very concerning. I am taking this very serious now. I am ready though, might need to stock up on some more supplies though.
Hurricane Season is something everyone who lives on and Island or the Coast... need to take serious. The models will change many times. You need to always have a plan in place and stay tuned.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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