Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hydrus:
This was a horrific hurricane that does not get much attention..
1928
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2334. ncstorm
Unfortunately, not everyone has the financial ability to be "prepared"..people are out of work these days so you are going to have a lot of people this season buying supplies at the last minute because frankly they dont have the means to buy extra stuff right now..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14439
2333. hydrus
This was a horrific hurricane that does not get much attention..
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2332. scott39
A little taste of fall this morning on the gulf Coast....68 degrees.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Quoting stormhank:
could someone send me a link to the map that shows the total water precipitation and list the pouch numbers thanks


Here you go.
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Quoting stormhank:
could someone send me a link to the map that shows the total water precipitation and list the pouch numbers thanks


http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2011.html
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2325. scott39
Quoting P451:


You mean to tell us that the US coastline at risk for hurricane landfalls extends beyond NOLA, South Florida, and Cape Fear?

Reading this blog... you'd think nothing outside of those three areas even exists. Except for Haiti. But only the deforested mountains of Haiti.

Thankfully the few reasonable individuals here, and the rest of the US coastline, happen to know and think differently.

Just one of many reasons that this is just a public hobbyist blog meant for friendly storm discussion - and not a place to get official information - let alone base your plans off of.

----

As to preparedness it amazes me that some individuals apparently are not prepared despite being in high risk areas. Yet a few 360 hour model runs suddenly have them *thinking* about getting prepared?

Wow....
Im not amazed of the lack of preparedness! Have you seen a Walmart 48 to 24 hours before a Major Hurricane hits? LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
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2323. NASA101
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Please look the dates of the model runs before posting...this is now 5 days old...!!
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2322. tramp96
Quoting USAFwxguy:


Link

all kinds of great links there, including the major models

Thanks they are really cool maps
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2321. hydrus
Quoting stormhank:
could someone send me a link to the map that shows the total water precipitation and list the pouch numbers thanks
You can get that on the main page..NOAA satellite page..
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It's very possible P17L does something very similar to 93L. It could take a long time to consolidate. The only difference now would be the Atlantic has moistened up a little more and could allow development further E than 93L. I am still thinking around the 50W mark is a good bet where this wave starts cranking.
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2317. hydrus
Good morning K-man..Always like reading your posts..:)
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could someone send me a link to the map that shows the total water precipitation and list the pouch numbers thanks
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2315. scott39
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Looks like a Arlene or Don track for now.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Good morning all. 93L is now in the "dead zone" as we like to call it, meaning we probably won't see development over the next 36-48 hours. After that, we will have to watch it closely in the western Caribbean. If it becomes a system and stays weak, it will go into the Yucatan and eventually probably Mexico. However, if it becomes a system and rapidly intensifies in the western Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico will need to watch the system closely.

There is no guarantee for development, but it is better organized than pre-Don was in this area. I'd give it at least a MEDIUM chance of ever developing.

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Link



Whatever comes of 93, it sure is moistening up the environment for whatever tracks behind it.
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2311. scott39
Looks like the Sal is starting to retreat from the African Coast.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation /loops/realtime/atlwv_loope.html
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this blog is full of downcasters this Am 93L too me even no it dos not yet have a close low has done a lot lats night and and this AM the ones that are saying 93L has not done a hole lot are downcasters 93L did a lot and it looks a hole lot better when i went too bed last night and i dont think any of you noted that any way
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2307. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Not too much that can be said for 93L this morning other than it is doing what one would expect and that is very little.

It just never had enough time or organization to get it together before entering the eastern Caribbean and the opportunity to do so now falls to 75W and beyond.The HH for 65W will probably be cancelled unless it realy gets cranking today and that is unlikely IMO.

The ASCAT pass last night did not show even a wind shift at the surface near the islands and certainly no sign of a surface low. The surface map at 2:46 last night showing a surface low was certainly not supported by that pass and I was never convinced that the map accurately depicted conditions on the surface.

Be that as it may, we are back to a wait and see game.

The other feature to watch is obviously the vigorous wave that has just come off the coast of Africa. I would wait a couple of days for it to pull away from the coast and get to 40W before focussing too heavily on what it may do or where it may go.
Good advice Kman.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Quoting NASA101:
00Z HWRF with a CAT 4 with 93L....LOL



That graphic does not show surface winds, but 900 mb.
However the 06Z HWRF does show a significant cyclone, but the HWRF almost always does.

HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -83.00 LAT: 20.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 944.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 102.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -83.70 LAT: 21.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 940.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 104.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -84.40 LAT: 21.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 100.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -85.30 LAT: 21.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 939.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 103.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -86.10 LAT: 22.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 937.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 111.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -87.20 LAT: 22.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 934.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 111.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -88.20 LAT: 22.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 936.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 108.00
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2303. scott39
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Still at 20%.
The difference in this 20% and the last 2.. 20% are.. If any developement to However some developement
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Quoting WxLogic:


We'll see how 93L evolves through the day and see what happens by 2PM.
I got up around 4 am EST and it looks much better now than it did then. There was virtually NO convection at that time but is slowly increasing now.
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The SE coast extends all the way to south of Miami.Katrina,Betsy,Andrew,Erin,rita,all hit the se coast but where do they end up?Just saying they just dont always hit fla or the carolinas.Tommorrow is the 42 aniversary of the strongest hurricane to ever hit the U>S mainland.Did it hit the east coast?I dont want any of these things.But lets realize thier are more hurricane hit areas than the East coast.
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2299. hydrus
Its to far out, but the GFS has a worst case scenario for the west coast of Florida..I always called it the nightmare storm..Check out the loop...Link
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Quoting hurricane23:


People should be aware regardless not because models 2 weeks out in time show a hurricane heading for the U.S. we are approaching the peak of the hurricane season and a prepardness plan should have been in place june1 if you live in a vulnerble area prone to hurricanes.
one out of how many people in miami are ready? one out of five is my guess i was in miami last wk near the intercostal 30street north a ton of homeless people nowadays
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2297. WxLogic
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Still at 20%.


We'll see how 93L evolves through the day and see what happens by 2PM.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
Good morning

Not too much that can be said for 93L this morning other than it is doing what one would expect and that is very little.

It just never had enough time or organization to get it together before entering the eastern Caribbean and the opportunity to do so now falls to 75W and beyond.The HH for 65W will probably be cancelled unless it realy gets cranking today and that is unlikely IMO.

The ASCAT pass last night did not show even a wind shift at the surface near the islands and certainly no sign of a surface low. The surface map at 2:46 last night showing a surface low was certainly not supported by that pass and I was never convinced that the map accurately depicted conditions on the surface.

Be that as it may, we are back to a wait and see game.

The other feature to watch is obviously the vigorous wave that has just come off the coast of Africa. I would wait a couple of days for it to pull away from the coast and get to 40W before focussing too heavily on what it may do or where it may go.
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2294. NASA101
00Z HWRF with a CAT 4 with 93L....LOL

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Quoting WxLogic:
Well... given current 93L performance. I believe NHC would leave it at 20%, but I could go as high as 30% @ 8AM. It truly has a nice upper level outflow for this type of INVEST.
Still at 20%.
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2291. WxLogic
Interesting enough... yesterday NAM Parallel kept it weak but now is stronger, but with more ridging in the E GOM into FL and therefore a track to the Yucatan Peninsula:



For comparison, production 06Z NAM for the same period:



Definitely a nice test case to find out how well is the new NAM upgrade (soon to be implemented) performing with tropical disturbances.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4928
I have a feeling that down the road, the models will trend west with the potential African wave. Granted it looks like there will be a sharp, quick moving trough moving across the northern parts of US early next week, this wave isn't expected to develop until past 50 W, not only will it not be affected by the trough, it will continue further west do to its weak state.
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Agree with all the above posts.And I agree that the lower these systems travel in latitude due to not strengthing until the islands,is bad news for the islands,and c/a and Mexico.The Gulf coast would be more at risk though than the east coast.And all I hear is the east coast.Remember 2005 had a lot of systems stay weak till they got much further west.How many hurricanes hit the east coast?I can think of one Ophelia.The rest hit c/a or fished, or; as far as the conus? The Gulf Coast.Seems like the same odds this year IMHO.
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2288. srada
I will be back for next model run guys! Time for work! I have a feeling that the SE coast is about to be looking down the barrel of a loaded gun, stay SAFE!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.