Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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2388. Grothar
The GFS animated Link: Something of interest.


Link
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2387. P451
Quoting Grothar:
I finished my little blog this morning. You don't have to look at it. I'll understand.

Here is the GFS at 264 hours.



All I want to know is are we doom. And by we who? NOLA? S FLA? Cape Fear?

I guess I have to go read the blog to find the answers to these important questions.

I warn you though, until the ECMWF verifies, I am just not on board.

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
As I said earlier, I was up about 4 1/2 hours ago and it looked almost non-existent. Has improved greatly since then.
stormwatcher their not listening i was up also and i too have seen the progression and also looked at upper/lower divergence ,shear, stearing, vorticity,and finally sat images asn thats how i see the next move with 93L.
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2385. P451
Quoting USAFwxguy:


that is fairly far-removed from 93L, however. from the vort max, I mean.


Yes but it is all we have.

We can't just pretend the conditions are perfect within 93L at those layers. They likely are similar to the soundings.

Think back the past few days where the entire Caribbean was a dead zone - just wall to wall dry as a bone.

What has moved into there with 93L is not a full vertical column of deep moisture. So what 93L needs to do is take that moisture we see on satellite and saturate the other layers of the atmosphere.

That takes time.

Guadeloupe is significantly better but it is far behind in the wake of 93L. You would want to see these values in the region the storm is moving into.

However there is a dry spike you see at the 400 levels which indicates that there is dry air problems with 93L at various levels.




It's not an end all but it's just one of many flags inhibiting 93L for now.

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2384. Grothar
I finished my little blog this morning. You don't have to look at it. I'll understand.

Here is the GFS at 264 hours.

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Just thinking how hot it is..... Everywhere.... If we get a storm on any coast here in the US.. Just think of your current temps right now with no electricity... Sweating in bed...
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Good Morning All. 93L's future is still a bit uncertain but looking at the loops, it looks like the CV train is "really" starting and middle passage is starting to moisten up. Notwithstanding temporary SAL and dry air issues it is probably only a matter of 5-10 days or so before we see the models developing some of these waves into a hurricane before reaching the Antilles and Caribbean.
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Living in S Fl all my life I feel as if I am always prepared for a hurricane. Having said that I do not have a hurricane kit persey but I know where everything is. I always have enough food in my house for at least five days for a family of four. I tune up Generator in June or July make sure I have extra batteries and a working radio. The only thing I may do Last minute is buy gas and 40lbs of ice. I survived after Wilma for 19 days with no power and only got fema water and ice once, and fed by the Red Cross a few times toward the end of our power outage.
I do make a yearly donation to the Red Cross and also am a volunteer for them.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Well the structure of the vort will help it too materialize once it can slow down, which apparently it is.
As I said earlier, I was up about 4 1/2 hours ago and it looked almost non-existent. Has improved greatly since then.
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2379. hydrus
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Please correct me if I am wrong. That should help development ?
I dont believe so, it would have to be to the west of 93L to ventilate it...
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2378. P451
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
between 65-70 long watch for development as i said earlier this 93l is going to do somthing a lot of people on here will critisize me for


Then we will just criticize you now and get it over with. LOL!


Today you look to see how much convection it loses as we head towards DMin. The less the better obviously.

Tonight you start to look for organization.

Tomorrow you start to look for development.

That's pretty much the schedule this system is keeping.

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mmmmmm.......!!!!
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morning everyone, looks like 93L is going to either die or blow up by the end of the day...been reading everyone's idea's on it and it's either 1 way or the other it seems...personaly the sst's are just too hot and if it slows down just a tad look out cause this could be a sneeker for the GOM..just sayin..
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Quoting P451:
San Juan, PR sounding.




From 900 to 700 is not very good. From 600 to 200 is atrocious.

A lot of dry air.


that is fairly far-removed from 93L, however. from the vort max, I mean.
Member Since: August 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
Just signed on. Anyone commented on the latest GFS run with the big mama going through S FL up to the northern gulf coast - way out there yet - but interesting.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
:) Including you I think. j/k


Well the structure of the vort will help it too materialize once it can slow down, which apparently it is.
Member Since: August 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
Don't expect much from invest 93...
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Please correct me if I am wrong. That should help development ?


Depends on how close a TC or AEW is.

If it's going barrelling into a TUTT, particularly a strong one, it'll get sheared to death.

If it's sufficiently far away enough and in the best position, TUTTs can help with outflow channels.
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2370. P451
San Juan, PR sounding.




From 900 to 700 is not very good. From 600 to 200 is atrocious.

A lot of dry air.
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between 65-70 long watch for development as i said earlier this 93l is going to do somthing a lot of people on here will critisize me for
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Quoting tatoprweather:
The ATL is a mess today....again.


it reminds me of this blog sometimes!
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

That makes sense. I never thought of that. Do you see this potentially slowing down, or maintaining it's current speed for the next few days?


Here is the 1200 analysis:


Should slow a bit as it progresses w or wnw, but still over 10 knts which will make it kind of tough.
Member Since: August 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
Quoting USAFwxguy:
Wonderful upper divergence depicted


and look at the lower lvl convergence:


If these kind of things keep happening, little 93L may really surprise a few folks.
:) Including you I think. j/k
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850,700, 500mb
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8647
Quoting hydrus:
nHere comes TUTT..
Please correct me if I am wrong. That should help development ?
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Quoting P451:


The satellite imagery is only showing you the moisture content of the upper levels. I would suspect that at the mid and lower levels there is a lot of dry air.

There was for Don, there was for Emily, and now 93L is showing the same general struggles those two systems did.

At San Juan from 900 to 700mb levels, and especially from 600mb to 200mb is some very dry air.



True. Those water vapor images are in the high lvls, but for broad brush analysis they are generally accepted.

But you are correct. Thanks for pointing that out.
Member Since: August 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
93L is doing just fine! Come a long way since yesterday imo.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8647
Wonderful upper divergence depicted


and look at the lower lvl convergence:


If these kind of things keep happening, little 93L may really surprise a few folks.
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2360. scott39
Quoting hydrus:
nHere comes TUTT..
Maybe it will save the day.
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Quoting hydrus:
That one too My Grandma remembers that storm..Horrible.
because of that one they built the dike around the big lake cyber would of been flooded out
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2358. P451
Quoting USAFwxguy:


I'm not convinced that dry air has been as much of an impediment as suspected.



The relatively dry patch to the west of 93L has remained there....to the west of it. So far it is just in the neighborhood, but really knocking on the door.

Here is another look:


The satellite imagery is only showing you the moisture content of the upper levels. I would suspect that at the mid and lower levels there is a lot of dry air.

There was for Don, there was for Emily, and now 93L is showing the same general struggles those two systems did.

At San Juan from 900 to 700mb levels, and especially from 600mb to 200mb is some very dry air.

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2357. hydrus
nHere comes TUTT..
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


fwd speed.

Check out the flow it is in:

20 knots or so on the map.

It needs to slow down to get some spin going.

That makes sense. I never thought of that. Do you see this potentially slowing down, or maintaining it's current speed for the next few days?
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1200 CIMMS consolidating the vorticity fairly well for 850mb:

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2353. scott39
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


ohhh, I am sooooo jealous! S FL hot, hot, hot..but not as hot as you all and Texas has been. Just really ready for some cool air too. That probably won't be until late October or sometime in November. Sigh....
I use to live down there too. It is a beautiful place but I do like the seasons better here.
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Quoting presslord:


you're absolutely correct.....however, in my never to be humble opinion....plans should center around evacuation much more than buying 'stuff'.....transportation and a place to go is the wisest use of resources....the 'stuff' buying frenzies are usually just adrenaline junkies...
Preach on my friend. BRILLIANT!!!!!!!
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2351. Gearsts
Quoting robert88:
93L reminds me a little of Alex. A big envelope that takes forever to consolidate. It could easily crash into SA or the Yucatan as an open wave.
But 93L is a tropical wave and smaller.
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P451 you missed the point.i was talking about the majority of the folks on here talk about the east coast preferabally the florida east coast.And in the last 40 years the panhandle and west coast has had more majors than the east coast.As far as Neworleans?i agree with you there also.Here on the Ms coast we took the brunt of katrina and all you heard was New Orleans.The same with camille I feel your pain.
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Quoting scott39:
A little taste of fall this morning on the gulf Coast....68 degrees.


ohhh, I am sooooo jealous! S FL hot, hot, hot..but not as hot as you all and Texas has been. Just really ready for some cool air too. That probably won't be until late October or sometime in November. Sigh....
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93L reminds me a little of Alex. A big envelope that takes forever to consolidate. It could easily crash into SA or the Yucatan as an open wave.
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"So far the relentless heatwave scorching Texas has killed numerous crops and dried up the reservoir in San Angelo State Park, leaving a shallow pool of blood-red water teeming with red bacteria that thrive in low oxygen. The drought in Lake Nacogdoches has exposed a piece of the space shuttle Columbia, which broke apart over Texas in 2003. In neighbouring states the heat has warped railroad tracks and exploded sidewalks.

Meteorologists are split on the causes, some blaming a La Niña weather pattern, others a jet stream that's stuck in one place."

Link

Which do you think?
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Quoting presslord:


you're absolutely correct.....however, in my never to be humble opinion....plans should center around evacuation much more than buying 'stuff'.....transportation and a place to go is the wisest use of resources....the 'stuff' buying frenzies are usually just adrenaline junkies...


Agree, although that too has its issues.

So many different factors to consider, but definitely don't want people evacuating unless directed to so so. Much of the issues with traffic congestion, gas shortages, etc could be mitigated with people remaining in-place unless directed to evacuate by authorities.
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2345. hydrus
Quoting islander101010:
1928
That one too My Grandma remembers that storm..Horrible.
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The ATL is a mess today....again.
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2343. scott39
Quoting P451:


DMax has now run it's course. Now you should expect a general leveling off of convection and then a decrease to follow. How much will be the important factor here.

As it moves further west and nears a region more conducive for cyclogenesis you should see it lose less convection each cycle around.

Finally finding itself in good enough shape to take the next step in organization.

This thing has work to do. It still has no surface features to speak of. It has a very large and broad mid level circulation. It is very disorganized.

Have you looked at 2008 seasons TC tracks lately. Looks to me that 2011 may turn out similar.
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Quoting hydrus:
Good morning K-man..Always like reading your posts..:)


Good morning. Not much more to post about for now which is a good thing :-)

I will come back on later today to see what 93L is doing but heading out now. Have a nice day.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

With a broad low pressure wave, favorable upper-level winds, shear below 10 knots the past couple days, and SST's more than ample to sustain development, what seems to be holding 93L up?


fwd speed.

Check out the flow it is in:

20 knots or so on the map.

It needs to slow down to get some spin going.
Member Since: August 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
Quoting ncstorm:
Unfortunately, not everyone has the financial ability to be "prepared"..people are out of work these days so you are going to have a lot of people this season buying supplies at the last minute because frankly they dont have the means to buy extra stuff right now..


you're absolutely correct.....however, in my never to be humble opinion....plans should center around evacuation much more than buying 'stuff'.....transportation and a place to go is the wisest use of resources....the 'stuff' buying frenzies are usually just adrenaline junkies...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10538
Quoting USAFwxguy:


I'm not convinced that dry air has been as much of an impediment as suspected.



The relatively dry patch to the west of 93L has remained there....to the west of it. So far it is just in the neighborhood, but really knocking on the door.

Here is another look:

With a broad low pressure wave, favorable upper-level winds, shear below 10 knots the past couple days, and SST's more than ample to sustain development, what seems to be holding 93L up?
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2338. P451
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I got up around 4 am EST and it looks much better now than it did then. There was virtually NO convection at that time but is slowly increasing now.


DMax has now run it's course. Now you should expect a general leveling off of convection and then a decrease to follow. How much will be the important factor here.

As it moves further west and nears a region more conducive for cyclogenesis you should see it lose less convection each cycle around.

Finally finding itself in good enough shape to take the next step in organization.

This thing has work to do. It still has no surface features to speak of. It has a very large and broad mid level circulation. It is very disorganized.

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Dr. Masters (r) co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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