Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting islandblow:

Greetings from Dominica island. First post for the season. Along the north coast looking towards Guadeloupe. An hour ago we changed from beautiful morning with flat sea to squall and now very heavy rain and thunder-lightening. The beginning touch of Invest 93.
Hey! Good to see you in the blog. I hope you guys don't get more than beneficial rain from our Twave of note...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nothing was mentioned about the stage collapse in Indiana in the blog, surprised nobody has posted the video

Videos of the mess were posted at least twice yesterday, and several others have posted photos and news articles, including NWS reports.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
Quoting Jedkins01:
What is wrong with the weather these days, why is New York City getting 7 inches of rain in one day? That's 2 months of worth of there normal rain in one day.

Seriously lets wake up, the world is changing, and we better do our best to take care of it from here on out.

It was not long ago Chicago also had a freak even very similar.

That isn't exactly normal...
? Alright, who are you and what are you doing posting under Jed's handle?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting cloudburst2011:



yes luck will run out eventually for the east coast but it wont be in 2011...
you wrote it on stone! bloggers remember sorry its way to early to say that
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5006
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Where I live in Illinois I have dumped a little over an inch in the last 6 weeks. That inch all fell in one evening over two weeks ago. Drought here as already ramped up to D2. Crops are going to take a hit up here this year.


Exactly my point, weather is just getting more extreme an unusual everywhere.

Here in Florida, what used to be normal for residents over the last 100 years and beyond has all but disappeared. We used to have a weather pattern during the wet season where you could count on a strong thunderstorm around 4 to 6 PM almost every day. On occasion there would be drier day, and sometimes days where it would rain all day. But it was mostly something you could rely on.

Now over the last several years that classic Florida weather has been disappearing. We are still getting plenty of rain overall but we seem to alternate between extremely wet days of torrential rain then dry days, the weather is constantly in change instead of the steady tropical weather you can rely on. We get troughs of low pressure that drench of for a few days then dry weather then back to drenching.


That's just one example, weather is getting strange around the whole world. So far here in Florida, this change seems to be bringing us less severe weather though unlike most places. The weather is getting weird, but we don't get nearly as many strong to severe thunderstorms as we used to.


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this is from late july 2010,, look familar????img src="814day 03">
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The ratio is as follows..a increase of 1 degree F in Global Avg Temp,,produces a 4% increase in Water Vapor,


One can extrapolate from that.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



yes 93L looks good but its about to encounter the killer SAL...even if it does develop the pattern is set its caribbean bound then the yucatan before crossing over the BOC and dying in mexico...the east coast is completely off the hook this year from huerricane strikes with thye A/B high where it is...
Um... wasn't trying to forecast anything there... just a comment on current appearance and verification of the flareup I expected from it when it got to this region.... BTW, is it supposed to make me feel better [even if it does develop] that a developed 93L would impact the Caribbean, Yucatan and MX, as opposed to say, the US???? I keep wondering about these weird comments of yours.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting Jedkins01:
What is wrong with the weather these days, why is New York City getting 7 inches of rain in one day? That's 2 months of worth of there normal rain in one day.

Seriously lets wake up, the world is changing, and we better do our best to take care of it from here on out.

It was not long ago Chicago also had a freak even very similar.

That isn't exactly normal...


Yawn. It's raining in places and not in others. Wow
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Why did I get a sudden feeling that Gert will go under RI?


Because you need to go to the head?????
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Nothing was mentioned about the stage collapse in Indiana in the blog, surprised nobody has posted the video
It was posted minutes after it happened Rita.

Brutal.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
What is wrong with the weather these days, why is New York City getting 7 inches of rain in one day? That's 2 months of worth of there normal rain in one day.

Seriously lets wake up, the world is changing, and we better do our best to take care of it from here on out.

It was not long ago Chicago also had a freak even very similar.

That isn't exactly normal...


Where I live in Illinois I have dumped a little over an inch in the last 6 weeks. That inch all fell in one evening over two weeks ago. Drought here as already ramped up to D2. Crops are going to take a hit up here this year.
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Wow!
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Nothing was mentioned about the stage collapse in Indiana in the blog, surprised nobody has posted the video
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



if you cant see what imtalking about then you just refuse to believe it or you lack experience..ill leave it at that..
LOL Still waiting for your evidence.

All I see so far is blah, blah, blah, blah.....

I would also like to see your evidence of what is going to happen in 30-45 days.

As I see it a major high will set up over Hudson bay and push the weakness towards the gulf in 10 days or so.

After that it's an educated guess but USUALLY the said trough or weakness will progress towards the east leaving a window to the SE coast.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What is wrong with the weather these days, why is New York City getting 7 inches of rain in one day? That's 2 months of worth of there normal rain in one day.

Seriously lets wake up, the world is changing, and we better do our best to take care of it from here on out.

It was not long ago Chicago also had a freak even very similar.

That isn't exactly normal...
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Kinda looks like it's trying to wind up at 14/57-ish

Link
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



you dont need a crystal ball i will be glad to tell you my reasons for this why the east coast is off the hook and its mexico and the caribbean area that are the ones to be concerned...the writings on the wall all you have to do is look at the set ups...if you need help i will be glad to show you...


Please share!!
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Why did I get a sudden feeling that Gert will go under RI?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
This was the argument we had off and on all weekend on the blog. I made the comment that if asked, the average man-on-the-streets-of-Miami would identify 1992 as an active year, despite its 7 storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 major. Meanwhile 2010 would be considered inactive.

As long as bloggers here are conflating "high-activity" with "high-impact" we will continue to be arguing at cross-purposes. And while "high-activity" can be quantified through storm numbers or ACE, "high-impact" will continue to remain subjective. Thus, as you say, people who see many storm formations that go out to see or have minimal impact begin to assume all storms in all seasons will be that way. That's obvious from some of the comments we're already seeing on the blog.


I totally agree.... Living here in Central Florida, The layman side of me looks at 2004 as a very very active season (which it was active but very impactful to us) and 2005 seemed less impactful (except for the K storm). Now the scientific side of me knows better since I really watch and stay in tune with the storms.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 15 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 15.0N 65.0W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 17/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA FOR 15/1800Z AND 16/0600Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 15/1100Z.


Confidence is building up some in NHC's eyes. Will be interesting to see how the 12Z runs do.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Morning guys

Nice tropical wave.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



you dont need a crystal ball i will be glad to tell you my reasons for this why the east coast is off the hook and its mexico and the caribbean area that are the ones to be concerned...the writings on the wall all you have to do is look at the set ups...if you need help i will be glad to show you...
no thanks.. i will pass and follow the guys in here I rely on.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
If you are hit by a hurricane then it's an active hurricane season for you locally/regionally. If not, then it was an inactive season for you locally/regionally
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



yes luck will run out eventually for the east coast but it wont be in 2011...
Ignorance is bliss!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 15 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 15.0N 65.0W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 17/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA FOR 15/1800Z AND 16/0600Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 15/1100Z.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


There is just simply way too much SAL in the MDR right now. It's just not going away so far to date this season. Biggest factor in the season thus far.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


That is a great point (and particularly for the US based Blog).......High numbers of storms with no major landfalls, in whatever Country you live, can cause people to fall into a false sense of security. It's one storm at a time and to be prepared and with a plan every year just in case the inevitable happens.
This was the argument we had off and on all weekend on the blog. I made the comment that if asked, the average man-on-the-streets-of-Miami would identify 1992 as an active year, despite its 7 storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 major. Meanwhile 2010 would be considered inactive.

As long as bloggers here are conflating "high-activity" with "high-impact" we will continue to be arguing at cross-purposes. And while "high-activity" can be quantified through storm numbers or ACE, "high-impact" will continue to remain subjective. Thus, as you say, people who see many storm formations that go out to sea or have minimal impact begin to assume all storms in all seasons will be that way. That's obvious from some of the comments we're already seeing on the blog.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Quoting MahFL:
Last year was very active, but the public's impression was the Huricane Season was very quiet.
It's all about US landfalling canes, which will be live on the web !....lol.


Unless they come here. Well I guess you could hear them live. Lol. We get them night crawlers. :)
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Off for the day........Will see you folks tonight.
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No talk about the 10+ inches that fell on parts of Long Island Jeff?

JFK's 7.8" was a lot, but many places had 2-3 inches more than that. It was a soggy day to say the least.
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Last year was very active, but the public's impression was the Huricane Season was very quiet.
It's all about US landfalling canes, which will be live on the web !....lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3850
Quoting mcluvincane:
To compare this season to last is totaly crazy. The pattern is not the same. Differnet ridge setup, lower shear, warmer TCHP. We are 1 month away from the peak of the season and we have people saying it's the same as last year lol
,the postioning of the troughs and location of the a/b high has been very simular thus far to last yrs patttern,i guess you dont remembmer the record sst's thru out the mdr early in the season or the fronts /troughs over the se and mid alantic in july and early august????
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Be back later...
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



yes 93L looks good but its about to encounter the killer SAL...even if it does develop the pattern is set its caribbean bound then the yucatan before crossing over the BOC and dying in mexico...the east coast is completely off the hook this year from huerricane strikes with thye A/B high where it is...
wow. can i borrow your crystal ball so I will now when the next hurricane is going to strike my area. I promise I will share information with everyone.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
Quoting cloudburst2011:



yes 93L looks good but its about to encounter the killer SAL...even if it does develop the pattern is set its caribbean bound then the yucatan before crossing over the BOC and dying in mexico...the east coast is completely off the hook this year from huerricane strikes with thye A/B high where it is...
"Killer SAL"?

That low would've been fizzled by now if it's of your description.
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Greetings from Dominica island. First post for the season. Along the north coast looking towards Guadeloupe. An hour ago we changed from beautiful morning with flat sea to squall and now very heavy rain and thunder-lightening. The beginning touch of Invest 93.
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THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.


Dare I say FISH ?
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3850
Quoting mcluvincane:


LOL.. The year is not over by a long shot, my point that we are 1 month away from the peak. Until the season is over and no landfalls then compare but until then why compare?
Why not. People state their opinions on here all the time. We each have the right to our opinion and it does have to be the same as yours to have some truth to it. Let people say what they think. It does not hurt you in any way.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755
12Z NAM 500MB

Lingering TROF of the US SE coast into E GOM. If 93L were to develop further then this could be region where it could be exiting the Carib. Been noticing the pattern attempting to shape up as NGP is attempting to depict it.

06Z NGP Steering @84HR

Very close. Having issues posting an image for some reason so linking for now.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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