Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting divdog:
What purpose is served by ragging on people. Provide something useful.


Tampa is a very respectful blogger, dont think he was ragging anyone. poof u go
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Quoting MahFL:


For a drought the grass looks quite green, any explanation ?
My guess is the occasional very light rains have allowed patches of grass to green up.  Plus, you are looking at a lake, so the ground is probably not as dry as it is elsewhere (the KBDI values in this general area are over 700, indicating the soil is very dry).  I see the same in area rivers, where sandbars have been exposed and have grass on them now.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
135. MahFL
Quoting divdog:
a tropical wave


Actually it's a tropical invest, which is a bit more than a normal tropical wave. Not all tropical waves become invests.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3177
Quoting TampaSpin:
ITS BACK! For those so quick last nite to RIP off 93L don't you seem foolish! Its got a ways to go but, the models are starting to LOVE 93L it seems.
What purpose is served by ragging on people. Provide something useful.
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Does anyone know what happened to StormW? I haven't seen him on here for almost a year. TKS!
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ITS BACK! For those so quick last nite to RIP off 93L don't you seem foolish! Its got a ways to go but, the models are starting to LOVE 93L it seems.
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Quoting angiest:
Since Sunday night isn't the best time to catch a lot of people, reposting this.  My blog has pictures from Lake Somerville, a reservoir to the NW of Houston, that has dropped to 50% capacity as of yesterday (I checked it on the Corps of Engineers website after writing the entry).
Thanks. I saw when u posted then lost track of it in the blog recycling.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21171
130. MahFL
Quoting angiest:
Since Sunday night isn't the best time to catch a lot of people, reposting this.  My blog has pictures from Lake Somerville, a reservoir to the NW of Houston, that has dropped to 50% capacity as of yesterday (I checked it on the Corps of Engineers website after writing the entry).


For a drought the grass looks quite green, any explanation ?
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3177
Quoting atmoaggie:
I see. Okay.

We are pretty close in what we are willing to accept as fact or conjecture, I think. I also think we'd agree that there are a lot of good things we could be doing if the political will and policy development, currently exhausted with one polarizing subject, were applied to other, more definable cause and effect environmental issues.

One difference, however, is that, IMO, very few people have a good memory of their local conditions under longer-term climate regime changes. Anecdotal evidence on the scale of nearly a human lifetime generally bothers me.

Quality long term in-situ observations, though, is another thing, entirely.


I agree peoples memories are bad, I'm just trying to make things personal by saying today's Florida weather isn't the same as what people used to have. But I base my actual stand on scientific research, not the public's memory of course.
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Quoting tropicfreak:



Why the heck are you all listening to that idiot talk?

Report, flag and move on.


Agree, poof he goes
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Poll:
What will Gert peak at?
A.TS
B.Cat. 1
C.Cat. 2
D.Cat. 3
E.Cat. 4
F.Cat. 5

What will 93L peak at?
A.Invest
B.TD
C.TS
D.Hurricane
E.Major Hurricane

When will 97L come?
A.This week
B.Next week
C.After
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To touch on what was said about the Florida weather pattern... I noticed a change about 5 years ago. The daily afternoon downpours from 4-6pm that would last about an hour disappeared. Actually, they didnt completely go away, the timing just changed. All of the sudden we would get the 1 hour downpours in the middle of the night.. like 3-5am. This went on for 2-3 years, then in about 2009 those storms went away as well.

Now, like the other poster said, it comes in long spurts. You will get 2 days of non stop rain followed by 14 days of complete dryness.

The old adage of " if your in florida and it starts to rain, wait an hour it will change" is no longer true. I have lived here for 23 years and for the first 18 years it was like clockwork with the afternoon thunderstorms.

Very odd indeed.
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he/she is just stirring the pot. Almost troll like at this point. Like I said earlier, i rely on certain people in here for valuable information. This person is not one of them and will never be.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

There's your problem right there. With weather, there really is no such thing as "normal". Sure, the local news on camera meteorologists will recap the day by showing the high temperature and how far off the "normal high" that temperature was. However, that doesn't mean the "normal" high for that day is normal.

Take Chicago, for instance. In late March, the "normal" high is somewhere in the range of 47-51 degrees. However, on any particular day in late March, Chicago has seen temperatures from well below zero to temperatures in the 80's. Some folks will have you believe that anything outside of the 47-51 degree range in late March in Chicago is not normal. However, the 47-51 degree range is nothing more than the cumulative long-term climate average since record keeping began at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport, which was sometime in the 1930's or so after the official record keeping was moved away from the lake.

So in short, normal simply implies the average mean temperature over a particular location over an extended period of time. Instead of the "normal" high temperature for that day, it makes more sense to call it the average high.

We blog on here everyday, so it's very likely we observe all kinds of weather events. That doesn't necessarily make them abnormal though.


I'm talking about when you begin to some up weather events around the world, unusual weather is becoming more usual. It doesn't even take a scientist to acknowledge that. However it becomes all the more obvious when you begin to study past weather when apposed to more recent. Not just extreme localized events, but global, large scale weather patterns are changing in strange ways.

I'm not going to argue with you, but I hope someday you'll realize that humanity can't continue on this self destructive path and expect different results.

Keeping pushing for Drill baby, Drill, and see where it gets us.
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118. MahFL
Quoting Jedkins01:


.... but we don't get nearly as many strong to severe thunderstorms as we used to.




That's exactly my feeling too, having visited and lived near JAX for 12 years.
Also the rain seems to start before 4 pm more often, it of course sometimes did, but now it seems more rain before 4 pm than in past years.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3177
Quoting hcubed:


And someone who's been posting since June 24, 2011 has more experience than those who've been posting since 2005?

If you DO have past experience on here, please inform us of any past names you've had.

Stormtop...from way back before '05. He's been here quite a long time. Of course, that doesn't mean he has experience though...
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Quoting cloudburst2011:
the new african wave coming off the coast looks like a million bucks right now but its about to encounter the STRONG SAL in about 12 hours and by tomorrow morning you will see what im talking about...the CV season will not amount to much this year ...the dusts is just to much for them to survive..Quoting cloudburst2011:
the new african wave coming off the coast looks like a million bucks right now but its about to encounter the STRONG SAL in about 12 hours and by tomorrow morning you will see what im talking about...the CV season will not amount to much this year ...the dusts is just to much for them to survive..
Chances of a cape verde storm hitting the east coast may be low this year.....correct.

The impact on the east coast will come from a storm that brews north of the carribean IMO.

Time will tell but until then all we have are opinions. Yours are just as valid as the next but vulnerable to say the least.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



no its not a guess and i made it simple for you could understand...if you cant see that its to late in the season for the A/B HIGH TO MOVE ESPECIALLY WITH THE TROFS THAT KEEP COMING DOWN OVER THE EAST COAST...its plain and simple and ill go on record of stating this...i did not say the caribbean would not have a bad season i said the EAST COAST would not have to deal with any hurricanes this year...the FISH are going to get those just like FRANKLIN AND GERT ...i cant make it any plainer...we will see you are wisihing for something thats not going to happen this year...keep looking at the garbage models they will make you feel good lol..they are GARBAGE!!!!!!!!


Excuse me, not wishing for anything. Just wish we had you working at the NHC to tell everyone that the east coast is clear this year, put up your hurricane supplies, no storms for you!!!
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the old/new 93L is right on schedule ..this where all the models where showing it would and when to start looking for development..funny how some when the models show a development 3 days away they think it should be developing right now
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



if you cant see what imtalking about then you just refuse to believe it or you lack experience..ill leave it at that..


And someone who's been posting since June 24, 2011 has more experience than those who've been posting since 2005?

If you DO have past experience on here, please inform us of any past names you've had.
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Quoting BradentonBrew:
On a serious note, "taking care of our world", will not increase or decrease the chances of a significant rain event such as this one iota.

Most knowledgeable and honest atmospheric scientists would tend to disagree with you...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13442
Weather Station
Melville Hall Airport
Elevation
43 ft
Station Select
Now

Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain
Temperature
74 %uFFFDF
Feels Like 74 %uFFFDF
Wind(mph)
5
Sunrise / Set
5:50 AM
6:29 PM
Moon
Waning Gibbous
More Astronomy
Today
84 %uFFFDF






Winds out of the WSW in Dominica at 5mph.

Speed / Dir 5 mph from WSW
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On a note of balance, I like to remind pple that these record-breaking highs are actually breaking records that were set in previous heat waves. IOW it's not like heat waves haven't happened before... and while the 160 year record we have - somewhat - available is impressive, it's really a drop in the bucket compared to the couple thousand years of recorded human civilization. I usually take a moment at this time of year to lament the loss of Mayan, Aztec and Incan knowledge at the hands of the Spaniards. I have a feeling there was a wealth of information tied up in their religious records.... meanwhile we have a limited database of extremes to build on and draw from.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21171
Quoting Jedkins01:


lol its the same me, I still stand by that I think people are exaggerating the effects of human caused GW because we can't prove how much we are actually effecting it as apposed to natural changes, and that much of the talk is politically based rather than science. But lets face it, this type of stuff should remind us to stop trashing our planet. What we do know is that we are destroying the natural world around us and we must stop being so destructive and learn to be more life giving rather than life taking.

I'm neither a GW activist, nor someone who denies its existence. I'm just someone who loves science, specifically meteorology, who believes people need to change the way we treat each other and the natural world. I'm very much also a naturalist/outdoorsman, I see more and more of the natural world being destroyed every day all in the name of money and business.
I see. Okay.

We are pretty close in what we are willing to accept as fact or conjecture, I think. I also think we'd agree that there are a lot of good things we could be doing if the political will and policy development, currently exhausted with one polarizing subject, were applied to other, more definable cause and effect environmental issues.

One difference, however, is that, IMO, very few people have a good memory of their local conditions under longer-term climate regime changes. Anecdotal evidence on the scale of nearly a human lifetime generally bothers me.

Quality long term in-situ observations, though, is another thing, entirely.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Since Sunday night isn't the best time to catch a lot of people, reposting this.  My blog has pictures from Lake Somerville, a reservoir to the NW of Houston, that has dropped to 50% capacity as of yesterday (I checked it on the Corps of Engineers website after writing the entry).
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Whats that persistant flare in the SE Carr?
a tropical wave
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850mb vorticity has improved with 93L in the last 3 hours.
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23.9n60.0w, 24.8n60.7w have been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Gert's_12pmGMT_ATCF
24.0n59.8w, 25.7n59.7w, 28.0n59.3w are now the most recent positions
TS.Gert's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 14August_12pmGMT and ending 15August_12pmGMT

The 4 short line-segments represent TS.Gert's path and
the longest line-segment is its straightline projection.

TropicalStormGert's travel-speed was 10.3mph(16.6k/h) on a heading of 5.4degrees(N)
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Gert was headed toward passage over NewHarbour,NovaScotia 3days16hours from now

Copy&paste 28.1n62.9w-28.6n63.1w, 28.6n63.1w-29.6n63.2w, 29.6n63.2w-30.6n63.4w, 30.6n63.4w-31.5n63.3w, bda, yhz, 30.6n63.4w-45.16n61.49w, yqy into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 15August_6amGMT)
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RAMSDIS now has a floater on 93L.

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Whats that persistant flare in the SE Carr?
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In local weather news, not-yet 90 F, dewpoint dipping under 70F, and lows tonight in the mid-60s F.

Yay! Thank you, cold front!
(I detest summer in SE LA).
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting Jedkins01:
What is wrong with the weather these days, why is New York City getting 7 inches of rain in one day? That's 2 months of worth of there normal rain in one day.

Seriously lets wake up, the world is changing, and we better do our best to take care of it from here on out.

It was not long ago Chicago also had a freak even very similar.

That isn't exactly normal...


It's a conspiracy. The umbrella industry was slipping on the investment market.

On a serious note, "taking care of our world", will not increase or decrease the chances of a significant rain event such as this one iota.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
? Alright, who are you and what are you doing posting under Jed's handle?


lol its the same me, I still stand by that I think people are exaggerating the effects of human caused GW because we can't prove how much we are actually effecting it as apposed to natural changes, and that much of the talk is politically based rather than science. But lets face it, this type of stuff should remind us to stop trashing our planet. What we do know is that we are destroying the natural world around us and we must stop being so destructive and learn to be more life giving rather than life taking.

I'm neither a GW activist, nor someone who denies its existence. I'm just someone who loves science, specifically meteorology, who believes people need to change the way we treat each other and the natural world. I'm very much also a naturalist/outdoorsman, I see more and more of the natural world being destroyed every day all in the name of money and business.
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Quoting angiest:

*That* is ex93L? Wow...

Yea amazing how things can change in comparison to the last couple of days.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
this is from late july 2010,, look familar????img src="814day 03">



Very (5 day 500mb GFS Forecast)

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Quoting cloudburst2011:


i will be happy to the A/B high is very far south due to all the trofs that has influenced it in the last month...this spells trouble for the caribbean sea the islands jamaica the yucatan and the mexican coast...with this scenario the only way a hurricane could move up to the central or ne gom if the huge high that has been over texas all summer long gives way and pulls back nw...so that being said no worries unless a front stalls in the gom then its possible a surface low could form on the front and cause some problems..thats the only way...

ok 3 very important things a invest has to encounter on there trip across the atlantic...sure they look great when they come off of africa.. until they encounter the SAL and then they get swallowed up...if they happen to stagger through that then the strong shear they have to battle as they churn towards the caribbean.....its a very hostile enviroment for these TW and the bottom line is thats why we have 7 TC and no hurricanes going into the middle august..the pacific is way ahead of us..this season so for has been a joke...the way conditions are locked into place the east coast does not have to worry about anything for 2011...its another year the strong trofs save the east coast..


Nice try, but that has to be the most uneducated response I have heard in some time. More like a uneducated guess. I respect your opinion, but thats all it is.
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delete.
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Quoting nigel20:

Nice flare up of convection from 93L.
*That* is ex93L? Wow...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

Nice flare up of convection from 93L.
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Quoting Patrap:
The ratio is as follows..a 1F increase in Global Avg Temp,,produces a 4% increase in Water Vapor,


One can extrapolate from that.
Yeah, cause extrapolation is always a successful prediction in this subject...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting islandblow:

Greetings from Dominica island. First post for the season. Along the north coast looking towards Guadeloupe. An hour ago we changed from beautiful morning with flat sea to squall and now very heavy rain and thunder-lightening. The beginning touch of Invest 93.
Hey! Good to see you in the blog. I hope you guys don't get more than beneficial rain from our Twave of note...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21171

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.