Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting kshipre1:
I have a feeling that parts of this chatroom think that potential dangerous landfalling hurricanes could be in store soon (hopefully not of course)
Well, that's a given just about any hurricane season. But you'll find a lot more people thinking that between 15 Aug and 15 Oct, simply because of climatology. This year also has some environmental signals that people associate with landfalling tracks.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
187. MahFL
Quoting GOLSUTIGERS:


Just wait till there is a hurricane about to hit the US an it will insane.


I wonder if by then we will have some people who can spell, know grammar, and type carefully.
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Don't believe the ridge will hold up for 93L......looks like a turn to the right with the models will be coming.........i just looked at all the models i could and it seems they are starting the Break the Bermuda High down and a possible move into the Central GOM is possible.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
The sounding this morning from Trinidad doesn't give warm, fuzzy feelings about 93L's chances in the near-term.



Still a good deal of ML dry air to work with.

Could be your typical wave that cruises the Caribbean with little action.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
Wow I am starting to see what everyone meant when they said the blog gets crazy.

Good luck trying to convince each other of your own position. Trying to do that here is a bit insane, I would think.

Look, just because we have a theory such as Climate Change doesn't mean we can attribute every weather event (or non-event) to it. To do so would be disregarding the cyclical pattern of weather, dating back through all time.

It does tend to get hot in summer, cold in winter...sometimes even to an extreme not seen in years and years. Happened before Climate Change theory, and will always happen.


Isn't it the case that, this year, the US has seen extreme high temperatures over a large area, exceptional drought in many places, extreme snowfall in the Rockies, extreme flooding in the Mississippi basin and extreme tornado activity?

You can't just keep on saying that 'it's happened before' and ignore what's going on, which is pretty much what climate scientists were predicting would happen 20 years ago. When did it happen before that such a diverse set of weather extremes happened in the same year in the US?
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The sounding this morning from Trinidad doesn't give warm, fuzzy feelings about 93L's chances in the near-term.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Is that deep or shallow BAM taking 93L over Cuba?


CLIP
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
Wow I am starting to see what everyone meant when they said the blog gets crazy.

Good luck trying to convince each other of your own position. Trying to do that here is a bit insane, I would think.

Look, just because we have a theory such as Climate Change doesn't mean we can attribute every weather event (or non-event) to it. To do so would be disregarding the cyclical pattern of weather, dating back through all time.

It does tend to get hot in summer, cold in winter...sometimes even to an extreme not seen in years and years. Happened before Climate Change theory, and will always happen.
I really, REALLY think u r going to be a good addition to this blog lol.... u r not saying anything the good Doc hasn't said before, and he agrees with the theory. It's just that anecdotal evidence carries a lot more weight with some people than a longer record.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting MississippiWx:
Well this is something we haven't seen in a while. The CPC seems to think the Texas ridge will back off and give them near normal temps, with possible below normal temps in the Eastern part of the state.

6-10 period:

I like those below normal temps showing up in my neck of the woods. It was nice this morning for a change.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Well this is something we haven't seen in a while. The CPC seems to think the Texas ridge will back off and give them near normal temps, with possible below normal temps in the Eastern part of the state.

6-10 period:



WHOA! Nice! :D
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Here is the BAM models.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
12Z GFS doesn't do anything much with 93L.

All bark, kind of, and no bite.
What are your current thoughts on 93l as far as development and direction.
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Well this is something we haven't seen in a while. The CPC seems to think the Texas ridge will back off and give them near normal temps, with possible below normal temps in the Eastern part of the state.

6-10 period:

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Nice spinning starting with 93L......Dry Air is not as big a problem either as it was the last few days.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Steering currents should swiftly whisk this into the Yucatan and then Mexico.

Is that deep or shallow BAM taking 93L over Cuba?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101

Quoting USAFwxguy:
Wow I am starting to see what everyone meant when they said the blog gets crazy.

Good luck trying to convince each other of your own position. Trying to do that here is a bit insane, I would think.

Look, just because we have a theory such as Climate Change doesn't mean we can attribute every weather event (or non-event) to it. To do so would be disregarding the cyclical pattern of weather, dating back through all time.

It does tend to get hot in summer, cold in winter...sometimes even to an extreme not seen in years and years. Happened before Climate Change theory, and will always happen.
We warned you. ;) And this is civil.  I don't come here in winter at all.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting USAFwxguy:
Wow I am starting to see what everyone meant when they said the blog gets crazy.

Good luck trying to convince each other of your own position. Trying to do that here is a bit insane, I would think.

Look, just because we have a theory such as Climate Change doesn't mean we can attribute every weather event (or non-event) to it. To do so would be disregarding the cyclical pattern of weather, dating back through all time.

It does tend to get hot in summer, cold in winter...sometimes even to an extreme not seen in years and years. Happened before Climate Change theory, and will always happen.


Just wait till there is a hurricane about to hit the US an it will insane.
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I have a feeling that parts of this chatroom think that potential dangerous landfalling hurricanes could be in store soon (hopefully not of course)
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Quoting hcubed:


Kinda figured that's who he is.
If so, I'm just glad he found the CapsLock key. Now maybe we can teach him what that Shift key is for.

(No, it doesn't mean that your PC moves when you hit Shift, if that's what the worry was.)
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



well tampa we will see what they do with 93L...i just had my fill of the models for years not just this year it goes way back...



Yep, i understand. Don't look at just 1 or 2 models. You gotta look at the overall scope of models. I look at the models i have posted on my blog and when i start seeing a concensus then i take it very serious. Seems when some see one model going crazy its either God or the Devil.

Also, i just posted on my Website all the Graphics and models with interactive Floaters on 93L and Gret. I got 5 floaters running. Any more than that might slow some computers down. When Gret moves further out i will put all the Floaters on 93L!
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Invest 93L.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Steering currents should swiftly whisk this into the Yucatan and then Mexico.



Not again...
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Quoting quakeman55:

Stormtop...from way back before '05. He's been here quite a long time. Of course, that doesn't mean he has experience though...


Kinda figured that's who he is. But I'm asking HIM to acknowledge his past names and history.

He can't - or won't. Either way, until HE states who he was, he's just another newbie troll.
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Here comes the rain... most of it will stay south

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Quoting Neapolitan:

Most knowledgeable and honest atmospheric scientists would tend to disagree with you...


Please share....
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96L lookin ok. Maybe mentioned at 2:00.
(Yes, its on the Navy page)
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Steering currents should swiftly whisk this into the Yucatan and then Mexico.

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93L is on steroids today. Improving at a fast pace
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Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
To touch on what was said about the Florida weather pattern... I noticed a change about 5 years ago. The daily afternoon downpours from 4-6pm that would last about an hour disappeared. Actually, they didnt completely go away, the timing just changed. All of the sudden we would get the 1 hour downpours in the middle of the night.. like 3-5am. This went on for 2-3 years, then in about 2009 those storms went away as well.

Now, like the other poster said, it comes in long spurts. You will get 2 days of non stop rain followed by 14 days of complete dryness.

The old adage of " if your in florida and it starts to rain, wait an hour it will change" is no longer true. I have lived here for 23 years and for the first 18 years it was like clockwork with the afternoon thunderstorms.

Very odd indeed.
Noticed a similar change here in the NW Bahamas; from mid-May to about October you could count on rain between 2 and 5 p.m. [well, July was usually dry by comparison]. Recently we've gone to overnight showers. This year has been very weird because there hasn't been any real "pattern" of rain. Instead it's been more like winter, with every rainfall event - at least seemingly - feature driven i.e. a front, low, or wave has had to be present.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
93L's conditions for development are marginal at best. Shear gets up to near 18 knots and ML moisture is less than ideal.

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96L is back on the Navy page.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



well i will put it like this if the MODELS LOVE 93L we have nothing to worry about...


Don't be so harsh on the models.......we have relatively very weak storms all year. Look at the overall picture and i don't think they have done all that badly.
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148. JRRP
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

There's your problem right there. With weather, there really is no such thing as "normal". Sure, the local news on camera meteorologists will recap the day by showing the high temperature and how far off the "normal high" that temperature was. However, that doesn't mean the "normal" high for that day is normal.

Take Chicago, for instance. In late March, the "normal" high is somewhere in the range of 47-51 degrees. However, on any particular day in late March, Chicago has seen temperatures from well below zero to temperatures in the 80's. Some folks will have you believe that anything outside of the 47-51 degree range in late March in Chicago is not normal. However, the 47-51 degree range is nothing more than the cumulative long-term climate average since record keeping began at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport, which was sometime in the 1930's or so after the official record keeping was moved away from the lake.

So in short, normal simply implies the average mean temperature over a particular location over an extended period of time. Instead of the "normal" high temperature for that day, it makes more sense to call it the average high.

We blog on here everyday, so it's very likely we observe all kinds of weather events. That doesn't necessarily make them abnormal though.

Just to so set the record straight on one point: Chicago has never seen temperatures "well below zero" in late March; the coldest temp ever there on or after March 15th was 11 on St. Patrick's Day in 1941. (The coldest March temp ever was 8.F, on 3/3/1873.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13531
Very kind of you to reply! Thank you!!!
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Quoting Jedkins01:


I agree peoples memories are bad, I'm just trying to make things personal by saying today's Florida weather isn't the same as what people used to have. But I base my actual stand on scientific research, not the public's memory of course.
I have resisted, but I will just drop this in as food for thought.

How far back do we have standardized, objective records for, for instance, rainfall patterns in Florida in summer afternoons?  I would wager, not too far.

So what is the long-term normal over the last, say, 1000-2000 years, and how do you know we are not returning to that normal?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
142. MahFL
Quoting wilburo33:
Does anyone know what happened to StormW? I haven't seen him on here for almost a year. TKS!


He got banned for promoting his own website, and some other things.....
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Quoting divdog:
What purpose is served by ragging on people. Provide something useful.


I think you must have been one of them.....LOL....Sorry could not help that!
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I see 93L is back.

Impressive for now.

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Quoting wilburo33:
Does anyone know what happened to StormW? I haven't seen him on here for almost a year. TKS!

He has his own blog.
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Quoting divdog:
What purpose is served by ragging on people. Provide something useful.


Tampa is a very respectful blogger, dont think he was ragging anyone. poof u go
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.