Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Cotillion:


Never is a strong word in meteorology. I mean, we've seen it literally raining frogs more than once.

The models are a tool, nothing more. They've not been fantastic this year, true. However, I think some put too much faith in models and expect too much of what they will tell you. In fact, that goes for a lot of things, ADT's a pretty good example. Prior to any form of cyclogenesis, the only thing people need to look out for is the consecutive and well backed hint something may form in a general area and a general timeframe.

If it does better than that, great.

Now once something has performed, you can ask the models to do better. Track, for example, which models do quite well with. Intensity is a crapshoot which is still not well understood (I mean, people keep posting these TCHP maps, but the last few storms that have gone under RI have all been in the middle of the Atlantic. No masses of TCHP there.) by meteorologists, let alone models. If humans don't understand, how can they program the algorithm for the model to do it?


I agree, and thanks for helping make my point. I know its exciting to see 957 on a model run but it seems to get everyone too excited when the reality is air must still be sinking in the Atlantic because everything is having difficulty developing past very small, weak TS.

And I will change my word from Never to almost never.. How is that?
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2436. Grothar
Quoting P451:
It would be a good time to reconnect with family in safe regions within a reasonable reach.

That's is what family is for anyways...even if today's American society seems to balk at such an idea as if it's an intrusion.

A tank or two of gas and go hole up with relatives.

Those are plans that a quick phone call can set up right now.

"Hey, if we get a bad hurricane hitting us, can we come stay with you guys for a couple of weeks? We don't have the money for hotels for three weeks."

I mean, if that's considered an imposition, that's ridiculous.



You never met my family, did you?
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2435. K8eCane
Quoting ncstorm:


and people jack up hotel prices when we have events like this..which is why I choose to stay and ride out floyd even when they were predicting a Cat 4..1-40 was gridlocked, media were saying no hotel rooms as far as Tennessee..who has money to drive to tennessee and still have funds for hotel, but luckily things have changed and I have now have relatives inland who will have to endure my company in case we are in a strike zone again



Yes we got stuck in Dunn and I was 8 months pregnant. I had to call the local hospital to see if they could take me if I had labor. We were stranded there for a week. We would have been better off to stay home in that instance
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Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 908
2433. Grothar
Quoting FLdewey:
Given the current economic climate... I think the number of people evacuating will be at an all time low no matter where a storm impacts.

A lot of families don't have the cash to pick up and leave for a week.


Even though I live on the water, I no longer evacuate. I just sit there and scream until it is over.

Of serious interest, In South Florida they have revised the levels of evacuation the past few years. Of course the Beach areas are always mandatory evacuation areas, and anyone living in mobile homes, even inland. But a few years ago, anyone living on the Intracoastal had to evacuate in any storm, now they have grids by Category. Of course, in a Cat 4 or 5, I wouldn't even want to be in the state.
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2432. K8eCane
Quoting P451:
It would be a good time to reconnect with family in safe regions within a reasonable reach.

That's is what family is for anyways...even if today's American society seems to balk at such an idea as if it's an intrusion.

A tank or two of gas and go hole up with relatives.

Those are plans that a quick phone call can set up right now.

"Hey, if we get a bad hurricane hitting us, can we come stay with you guys for a couple of weeks? We don't have the money for hotels for three weeks."

I mean, if that's considered an imposition, that's ridiculous.




thats a darn good point....
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2431. ncstorm
Quoting P451:
It would be a good time to reconnect with family in safe regions within a reasonable reach.

That's is what family is for anyways...even if today's American society seems to balk at such an idea as if it's an intrusion.

A tank or two of gas and go hole up with relatives.

Those are plans that a quick phone call can set up right now.

"Hey, if we get a bad hurricane hitting us, can we come stay with you guys for a couple of weeks? We don't have the money for hotels for three weeks."

I mean, if that's considered an imposition, that's ridiculous.



exactly!!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
2430. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


Hi, Hydrus. Guess you didn't see post 2394. Just saying! LOL P.S. Where are you now?
Port Charlotte, Florida....
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Quoting presslord:


yup....no easy answerss


Yes, the easy answer is to prepare well before storms. I can fully sustain me and my family for months, without help from anyone. I learned these lessons well from Katrina/Rita/Ike and Gustav. People forget personal responsibility. I live on the gulf, I know I must be prepared for storms, that's why I do it all the time. If you purchase a little at a time it is not a big expense over the long term.
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2428. ncstorm
Quoting K8eCane:



I could leave them all home and have my 11 year old son having a nervous breakdown and telling me how mean i am. But really, we dont have the funds to evacuate even one day


and people jack up hotel prices when we have events like this..which is why I choose to stay and ride out floyd even when they were predicting a Cat 4..1-40 was gridlocked, media were saying no hotel rooms as far as Tennessee..who has money to drive to tennessee and still have funds for hotel, but luckily things have changed and I have now have relatives inland who will have to endure my company in case we are in a strike zone again
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
2427. hydrus
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2425. hydrus
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2424. hydrus
This area has been generating a lot of activity...
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I know and that was my point. So many people posted these runs and we haven't had a storm reach hurricane strength yet this season. And models never do well predicting storms pre-cyclonegenisis.


Never is a strong word in meteorology. I mean, we've seen it literally raining frogs more than once.

The models are a tool, nothing more. You wouldn't use just a hammer to build a house. They've not been fantastic this year, true. However, I think some put too much faith in models and expect too much of what they will tell you. In fact, that goes for a lot of things, ADT's a pretty good example. Prior to any form of cyclogenesis, the only thing people need to look out for is the consecutive and well backed hint something may form in a general area and a general timeframe.

If it does better than that, great.

Now once something has performed, you can ask the models to do better. Track, for example, which models do quite well with. Intensity is a crapshoot which is still not well understood (I mean, people keep posting these TCHP maps, but the last few storms that have gone under RI have all been in the middle of the Atlantic. No masses of TCHP there.) by meteorologists, let alone models. If humans don't understand, how can they program the algorithm for the model to do it?
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To my eyes, and independent of any model guidance, the best looking Blob out there at the moment is the ITCZ pertubation at 9N-42W......Have to keep an eye on the vort signature over the next 2 days.... Just my opinion.
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2421. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Gro..ECMWF at 240..


Hi, Hydrus. Guess you didn't see post 2394. Just saying! LOL P.S. Where are you now?
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2420. K8eCane
Quoting K8eCane:




HA! thats true. A parakeet and two chickens



I could leave them all home and have my 11 year old son having a nervous breakdown and telling me how mean i am. But really, we dont have the funds to evacuate even one day
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Quoting ncstorm:


that also takes financial resources as well, gas, lodging, etc..unfortunately you may have a lot of people staying put and riding out a storm because they dont have the means to leave and stay elsewhere..I know when floyd hit, people left for Raleigh and were stuck there at least a week and half..thats an extra expense most people these days dont have..


yup....no easy answerss
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2418. K8eCane
Quoting BobinTampa:


technically, chickens are birds too. :)




HA! thats true. A parakeet and two chickens
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Quoting K8eCane:



That would include me...plus i have 2 dogs, a cat, a bird and two chickens


technically, chickens are birds too. :)
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2416. K8eCane
Quoting presslord:



and therein lies a huge problem



That would include me...plus i have 2 dogs, a cat, a bird and two chickens
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2415. HCW
Quoting Cotillion:


That's an interesting and pertinent point. You hope people do have some saved in an emergency fund, particularly for such a scenario.


And many people evacuate when they shouldn't causing gridlock on the roads. I am shocked that more people don't listen to the local EMA cause most of the time if you are away from the coast you are better sheltering in place.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I think it's just coincidence and nothing more than that. Bad thermometers and/or bad thermometer placement. Natural cycles. Typical summer weather. Average temperatures. Normal, garden-variety climate. Same as it ever was, same as it ever was... ;-)


Heh. Alas, do they still have gardens in drought-stricken areas of Texas? :(
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The GFS animated Link: Something of interest.

that's not good at all...would be a lot of oil being slung around the al/fl beaches..


not too mention all in land also....the local people have no idea how much oil is still out there on all of the sand bars...1 storm is all it's going to take to turn the gulf into a oily soup...insurance DOESN'T COVER OIL DAMAGE...just something to ponder...
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2412. ncstorm
Quoting presslord:


you're absolutely correct.....however, in my never to be humble opinion....plans should center around evacuation much more than buying 'stuff'.....transportation and a place to go is the wisest use of resources....the 'stuff' buying frenzies are usually just adrenaline junkies...


that also takes financial resources as well, gas, lodging, etc..unfortunately you may have a lot of people staying put and riding out a storm because they dont have the means to leave and stay elsewhere..I know when floyd hit, people left for Raleigh and were stuck there at least a week and half..thats an extra expense most people these days dont have..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16215
2410. Grothar
Quoting Canesinlowplaces:


Yep, that's the one. Takes us all the way to the end of the month, but it will be interesting to see what the other models do with it over the next few days.


My only concern is that the Euro, GFS and a few other models are pretty much in agreement at this time. It is something that should be watched closely, of course I explained that in my blog. :)
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Quoting Grothar:


Intensity is always in question that far out as is the track. These are just early scenarios of what might be. I never rely on models that far out.


I know and that was my point. So many people posted these runs and we haven't had a storm reach hurricane strength yet this season. And models never do well predicting storms pre-cyclonegenisis.
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Quoting Grothar:
I finished my little blog this morning. You don't have to look at it. I'll understand.

Here is the GFS at 264 hours.

I took a peek.

What is making you think a more north route for 93L? Strength?
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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


ohhh, I am sooooo jealous! S FL hot, hot, hot..but not as hot as you all and Texas has been. Just really ready for some cool air too. That probably won't be until late October or sometime in November. Sigh....

Or you could come to Sydney and have 52.7°F at 10:50pm with a low over night of 48°F and a high of 61°F tomorrow(Wednesday).
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Quoting scott39:
Im not amazed of the lack of preparedness! Have you seen a Walmart 48 to 24 hours before a Major Hurricane hits? LOL


I'm not saying it's right, but if a hurricane hitting your area is say 7% pre-season (idk what the actual number is), you can see why people don't rush out and buy 10 days of food and materials every year. I reckon a majority of middle-class and lower-class folks live paycheck to paycheck and just don't have the disposable income to hoard things they may never use.

As a public safety/emergency mgmt employee, I don't advocate not having these supplies. In the interest of honesty however, I don't have a hurricane supply closet. My family simply has a hurricane deployment plan. An agreement with two other groups in our family, (One in coastal NC, the other in Jacksonville, FL). We have a savings acct, that in the event we are within the cone inside of 3days out of landfall on a significant storm, we are flying out to one of the other two locations. The other two locations do the same if they are in the cone. Myself, I'll be deployed to our emerg ops center, but my family will be long gone, yet taken care of by the agreement we have with the other two groups.

No need to stock up on dry goods and supplies every year. The plywood is in great shape and stored away. With kids in the house, we always have plenty of batteries and other things for the challenges that common storms bring.

I think with the economy the way it's been and the challenges of a middle income, or a low income household, hoarding supplies every-year for something that isn't that great of a chance, is just not feasible. In a perfect world that's probably the best preparation, but for some running to the store last minute is all they can do. It's a mess and it causes lots of problems, but it's all that some are able to do. I guess the biggest thing is just advocating having some type of plan in place. For some that doesn't include any pre-purchasing of supplies and it works for them. For others, it's waiting last minute, trying to find supplies amongst throngs of others then riding out the storm with meager resources. Certainly this leads to a deadly outcome on many occasions.
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Here is the am NCEP discussion on the short-term impacts of 93L. Same tune as yesterday; no mention of significant development and reference to the fast speed at the moment:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 659 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG 66W/67W EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING IT WILL MOVE ACROSS 70W. MOISTURE IS TO QUICKLY SURGE...WITH PWAT FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 50-60MM. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...WITH 850 HPA WINDS FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 30-35KT EARLY TODAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO FAVOR SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS IT IS TO REMAIN A FAIRLY FAST SYSTEM...CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL HAVE A SHORT TIME ON STATION...AND NOT EXPECTED TO FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. GLOBAL GUIDANCE AGREE ON 24 HRS RAINFALL AMOUNTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25MM...BUT DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING MIGHT SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 35-50MM. NOTE THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF (NMM AND ARW) DOWNPLAY
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TODAY. BUT THAT SEEMS UNDERDONE CONSIDERING ACTIVITY EVIDENT ON IMAGERY. SECONDARY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AS WAVE PATTERN ESTABLISHES A MOIST
INFLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST ACTIVE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


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2404. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
I finished my little blog this morning. You don't have to look at it. I'll understand.

Here is the GFS at 264 hours.

Good morning Gro..ECMWF at 240..
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Quoting FLdewey:
Given the current economic climate... I think the number of people evacuating will be at an all time low no matter where a storm impact.

A lot of families don't have the cash to pick up and leave for a week.


That's an interesting and pertinent point. You hope people do have some saved in an emergency fund, particularly for such a scenario.

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Quoting FLdewey:
Given the current economic climate... I think the number of people evacuating will be at an all time low no matter where a storm impact.

A lot of families don't have the cash to pick up and leave for a week.



and therein lies a huge problem
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2400. Grothar
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


The only problem I have with the GFS on this run and the 0oz run is that is strengthens this storm over Hispaniola. So if it has the track right it cant have the intensity correct...


Intensity is always in question that far out as is the track. These are just early scenarios of what might be. I never rely on models that far out.
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The GFS animated Link: Something of interest.

that's not good at all...would be a lot of oil being slung around the al/fl beaches..
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Mid level dry sinking air has been a big problem this season...but looks like the Atlantic is finally starting to moisten up out there. Couldn't be worse timing with the MJO coming back strong in the coming weeks.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 908
Quoting Grothar:
The GFS animated Link: Something of interest.


Link


Yep, that's the one. Takes us all the way to the end of the month, but it will be interesting to see what the other models do with it over the next few days.
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2394. Grothar
The Euro at 240 hours.Link
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Quoting Cotillion:
"So far the relentless heatwave scorching Texas has killed numerous crops and dried up the reservoir in San Angelo State Park, leaving a shallow pool of blood-red water teeming with red bacteria that thrive in low oxygen. The drought in Lake Nacogdoches has exposed a piece of the space shuttle Columbia, which broke apart over Texas in 2003. In neighbouring states the heat has warped railroad tracks and exploded sidewalks.

Meteorologists are split on the causes, some blaming a La Ni%uFFFDa weather pattern, others a jet stream that's stuck in one place."

Link

Which do you think?

I think it's just coincidence and nothing more than that. Bad thermometers and/or bad thermometer placement. Natural cycles. Typical summer weather. Average temperatures. Normal, garden-variety climate. Same as it ever was, same as it ever was... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
Quoting USAFwxguy:


Agree, although that too has its issues.

So many different factors to consider, but definitely don't want people evacuating unless directed to so so. Much of the issues with traffic congestion, gas shortages, etc could be mitigated with people remaining in-place unless directed to evacuate by authorities.


mass evacution is an evolving art....but it's getting better....my view is: if one believes it's in their best interests to leave...then leave
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Quoting Grothar:
I finished my little blog this morning. You don't have to look at it. I'll understand.

Here is the GFS at 264 hours.



The only problem I have with the GFS on this run and the 0oz run is that is strengthens this storm over Hispaniola. So if it has the track right it cant have the intensity correct...
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2390. scott39
93L DRY AIR!! I get it. LOL
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2388. Grothar
The GFS animated Link: Something of interest.


Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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