Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, August 15th, with Video

Thanks for the update.
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Quoting ncstorm:


but if you got stronger troughs coming down off the east coast with no high to block them, then you are going to have storms being pulled into the East Coast or out to sea..


Pretty far south and the Ridge breaks down a little late for that to occur........JMO tho.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct, but what they never take into account, something that no model can predict is when 93L closes a circulation. I view it likely that 93L will struggle with sustaining convection and or developing a closed LLC over the next few days, it might develop in the western Caribbean but will imo, probably not in the Eastern Caribbean.
That's what I am foreseeing.
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Gert
WV Loop

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Quoting JLPR2:


Well that's interesting.

From a thunderstorm 2 miles or so to my north.
Downdrafts here, it appears.
Airport says SSE and they are 6 miles NNE of me.
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Is it possible the gulf coast could be spared a direct hit this season with the texas ridge and troughiness off the east cooast?? and then Im sure this pattern wont last the entire season either.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


There's no reliable model support for this to even develop. For a track like that, it would have to develop and feel some non-existent weakness near the WCARB.

I'd hold off on the GOM track for now.


I agree. This is most likely headed for SA and it's very possible it never even develops. Huge systems take a long time to consolidate. It would of had to start developing a long time ago if it was going to feel the weakness near Cuba and head more N.
Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 907
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


EURO has a much less impressive system.

If it ever looks like the GFS, that's when I'd be interested.


Reliance on the models only, is a mistake as many systems have developed without support. It's best to just wait and observe.
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The season of the trough...

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Pattern really comes into place after 200 hours. While it's a long time, the EURO even has the same pattern. The East Coast could receive there first hit since 2008 if a storm were to develop in the heart of this evolving pattern. It's all starting to become clear to me that the high in Texas retreats some, high pressure dominates near the Azores and builds right along the East Coast, a good setup for an East Coast storm.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
It does tend to get hot in summer, cold in winter...sometimes even to an extreme not seen in years and years.

I don't believe anyone is disputing that. But when those extremes happen more and more frequently--and those extremes themselves are increasingly extreme--something out of the ordinary is clearly happening.

Just as a for instance: in a temperature-neutral world, record highs and record lows would roughly balance each other out in the long run. But in the US, record highs have been outnumbering record lows by an increasingly large ratio for a lot of years now. (Speaking of: since June 1, there have been 5,667 new record daily high temps set (not tied) in the US. Over that same period, there have been just 584 new record low temps set.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13473
Quoting Chicklit:
would somebody plz post cimss shear map link again.
thx


Hi Chicklit, very nice to see you back! How are you?
Here's the link your looking for, I suppose:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#SPECIAL
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168 hours

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Quoting reedzone:


The EURO for 2 consecutive runs develops the same thing.. I may want to watch this one since the EURO got involved.


EURO has a much less impressive system.

If it ever looks like the GFS, that's when I'd be interested.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



There you go!


but if you got stronger troughs coming down off the east coast with no high to block them, then you are going to have storms being pulled into the East Coast or out to sea..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14645
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, August 15th, with Video
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z GFS develops it's ghost system in about 150 hours.


The EURO for 2 consecutive runs develops the same thing.. I may want to watch this one since the EURO got involved.
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FULL

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218. JLPR2
Quoting pottery:
Strong squalls with NorthWest winds here for the last 30 minutes.
The sky is black to my north and thundering loudly...

No rain as yet.
Temps have dropped big time though which is a relief.


Well that's interesting.
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Winds at the airport are SSE.
I am southwest of the APort, and my winds are North, but swirling all around now.
Unsettled weather!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z GFS develops it's ghost system in about 150 hours.


ECMWF has the ghost storm too, though only a TS.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Good to have negative vorticity in the upper lvls to aid with allowing the latent heat energy that is pumped into a system at lower lvls a way to escape. Negative vorticity in the northern hemisphere means air is spinning clockwise (high pressure).

At low and mid levels you want positive vorticity "stacked", but once in the 200mb upper lvls negative vorticity is best for a storm.

On the CIMMS maps, the negative vort is the blue shades.
Thanks for the help. Have u been a teacher in a past life. Very well explained for somewhat of a novice to understand.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
WOW the Intensity Models really like 93L


Correct, but what they never take into account, something that no model can predict is when 93L closes a circulation. I view it likely that 93L will struggle with sustaining convection and or developing a closed LLC over the next few days, it might develop in the western Caribbean but will imo, probably not in the Eastern Caribbean.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


There's no reliable model support for this to even develop. For a track like that, it would have to develop and feel some non-existent weakness near the WCARB.

I'd hold off on the GOM track for now.
Quoting ncstorm:
looks like the Azore high will be retreating back to the east..




There you go!
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12z GFS develops it's ghost system in about 150 hours.
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Strong squalls with NorthWest winds here for the last 30 minutes.
The sky is black to my north and thundering loudly...

No rain as yet.
Temps have dropped big time though which is a relief.
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That is a pretty tight Intensity Line,,

Favors the System and downstream too.

93L in the tube 5 x 5 easily thru 96.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Oh, cool. It's just climatology.... lol

Guess that means models are indeed projecting it to stay weak....

Quoting MahFL:


I wonder if by then we will have some people who can spell, know grammar, and type carefully.
Good luck with that......


Quoting USAFwxguy:
850 vort looks better than -3hrs, but still nothing that makes me think 93L wants a name

-3hr:


Current:


and 200mb has negative vorticity in the area, so that is helpful should some low level action get going:
What's really catching my eye on the vorticity maps is that very nice area of vorticity SW of Central America in the EPac. I'm surprised that didn't have more than a yellow circle on it at 8 a.m.
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This is setting up to be a dangerous season for the East Coast. A repeat of Gloria is not out of the realm of possibility as we have a scenario setting up for an East Coast storm over the next few weeks. Looks like North Carolina to Maine may not be lucky this time around.
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Quoting ncstorm:
looks like the Azore high will be retreating back to the east..



Thats because of the full latitude trough that is currently digging across the Eastern seaboard. Early fall like pattern - for now...
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WOW the Intensity Models really like 93L
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looks like the Azore high will be retreating back to the east..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14645

Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Well LGEM certainly likes something.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I really, REALLY think u r going to be a good addition to this blog lol.... u r not saying anything the good Doc hasn't said before, and he agrees with the theory. It's just that anecdotal evidence carries a lot more weight with some people than a longer record.
...even though it not only furthers, but encourages the generally terrible public understanding of what climate is, rather than weather? If we could actually verify that one particular phenomenon would decrease in frequency under the theory of AGW, we could, nay will have extreme instances of that phenomenon anyway. That anecdotal evidence would be misused (like usual) as evidence carrying a lot of weight even though it has no long term trend or a decreasing one.

(Regardless of whether or not any long-term trend of a particular phenomenon is actually attributable to warmer temps and that the "warmer" is actually attributable the political target.)
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Don't believe the ridge will hold up for 93L......looks like a turn to the right with the models will be coming.........i just looked at all the models i could and it seems they are starting the Break the Bermuda High down and a possible move into the Central GOM is possible.


There's no reliable model support for this to even develop. For a track like that, it would have to develop and feel some non-existent weakness near the WCARB.

I'd hold off on the GOM track for now.
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would somebody plz post cimss shear map link again.
thx
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Well this is something we haven't seen in a while. The CPC seems to think the Texas ridge will back off and give them near normal temps, with possible below normal temps in the Eastern part of the state.

6-10 period:



From their lips to God's ears.
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There seems to be some slight spin associated with 93L.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
850 vort looks better than -3hrs, but still nothing that makes me think 93L wants a name

-3hr:


Current:


and 200mb has negative vorticity in the area, so that is helpful should some low level action get going:


I don't see anything much to occur until the Central Caribbean......south of SE Cuba near Jamicia.
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

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Quoting TampaSpin:
Don't believe the ridge will hold up for 93L......looks like a turn to the right with the models will be coming.........i just looked at all the models i could and it seems they are starting the Break the Bermuda High down and a possible move into the Central GOM is possible.


This is the 2011 Hurricane season your talking about here doubt that will happen lol
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Radar link Link


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Quoting USAFwxguy:


I don't see it getting named anytime soon. Not enough consolidated low lvl vorticity... perhaps after it gets through the Eastern Caribbean it nay have a chance.

Trackwise, best to wait until something spins up to venture a guess. Without a LLC, generally west to wnw.
Thanks for the response. Can u explain the 200mb negative vorticity. Trying to absorb some knowledge to help better understand the genesis of storms.
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Quoting kshipre1:
I have a feeling that parts of this chatroom think that potential dangerous landfalling hurricanes could be in store soon (hopefully not of course)
Well, that's a given just about any hurricane season. But you'll find a lot more people thinking that between 15 Aug and 15 Oct, simply because of climatology. This year also has some environmental signals that people associate with landfalling tracks.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.