Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Chucktown:


You gotta stop that crap Reed - its 360 hrs out. GFS also showed 93 L hitting South Carolina as a Hugo type storm last week - how's that gonna work out?


You possibly can't take a darn joke dude.. Im not believing the GFS run.. Though I do believe the pattern will be changing over the next 2 weeks that could be more of a threat to the USA IF a storm forms.
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Quoting pottery:

You better hurry.
You only have 364 hours.....

Good Luck!


Almost enough time for me to lift my house off its foundation and move it to Canada.
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Later guys.
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FWIW, I would rather listen and believe Reed WAY more than I would listen and believe anyone like stormkat/cloudbust. He's a well respected blogger in my opinion, and a great contribution to the blog.. where as cloudbust is only here to stir up trouble. Best to ignore him.
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Quoting Levi32:
12z GFS is poised to show a Gulf of Mexico storm. It's one run, so no need for alarm right now, as the wave is just now leaving Africa.


Lol. Would I get alarmed? ;D
Does look awfully familiar to a run from a few days ago.



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Quoting yonzabam:


Isn't it the case that, this year, the US has seen extreme high temperatures over a large area, exceptional drought in many places, extreme snowfall in the Rockies, extreme flooding in the Mississippi basin and extreme tornado activity?

You can't just keep on saying that 'it's happened before' and ignore what's going on, which is pretty much what climate scientists were predicting would happen 20 years ago. When did it happen before that such a diverse set of weather extremes happened in the same year in the US?


idk, I only have 140 years to look back on.
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, August 15th, with Video


These are just outstanding, Levi!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492






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Note, I am not saying a storm will develop.. I am saying the pattern will be different and dangerous for the East Coast which is shown on the 00Z/06Z GFS and 00Z EURO.. This out to sea scenario u all speak of is most likely history by the next 2 weeks.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...Apocalyptocane hitting the Central Gulf Coast at 364 hours. That's it...I'm outta here until it passes.

You better hurry.
You only have 364 hours.....

Good Luck!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
348



360

Well, SE Texas needs a TC to give us rain, and this seems to be giving us just some of that. :P
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Quoting reedzone:
It has been said that the GFS once after going OTS on a few runs, then an East Coast run would next strike the GOM. Maybe Mexico on the next run.. It's a pattern that the GFS does before the system forms. Did it with Bill in 2009 and Dean in 2007.

Dum Dum Duuummmmm

Hold on to your hats LA


You gotta stop that crap Reed - its 360 hrs out. GFS also showed 93 L hitting South Carolina as a Hugo type storm last week - how's that gonna work out?
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276. SLU
The "center" of 93L seems to be located about 50 miles NE of Barbados.
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Quoting NWHoustonMom:



I'm under-experienced here, usually a lurker.... what is this a map of?

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, a measure of the oceanic heat content from the sea surface to the depth of the 26°C isotherm)
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Levi just watched your Saturday video and you nailed 93L's comeback!!! Do you still think if 93L develops it will be a GOMEX storm?


It will highly depend on if it develops, and how strong it becomes if it does. A system remaining quite weak may be pushed straight into central America, despite the break in the mid-level ridge that will likely be over the Gulf of Mexico, which would probably steer a stronger storm farther north.
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Quoting reedzone:
It has been said that the GFS once after going OTS on a few runs, then an East Coast run would next strike the GOM. Maybe Mexico on the next run.. It's a pattern that the GFS does before the system forms. Did it with Bill in 2009 and Dean in 2007.

Dum Dum Duuummmmm

Hold on to your hats LA
Sizable storm. Does that say 962mb?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
360



Lol...Apocalyptocane hitting the Central Gulf Coast at 364 hours. That's it...I'm outta here until it passes.
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Levi just watched your Saturday video and you nailed 93L's comeback!!! Do you still think if 93L develops it will be a GOMEX storm?
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 151500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 15 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 15.0N 65.0W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

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It has been said that the GFS once after going OTS on a few runs, then an East Coast run would next strike the GOM. Maybe Mexico on the next run.. It's a pattern that the GFS does before the system forms. Did it with Bill in 2009 and Dean in 2007.

Dum Dum Duuummmmm

Hold on to your hats LA
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Recon is up for tomorrow.

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SLU
It's coming down now.
Thanks, man.
I dont know how you do it, but thanks again!

LOL
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Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Saw today's new CPC 8-14 Day Outlook with better near normal temperatures and precip here in South Texas. I can already tell that this is at least in some form and more than likely, a result of Invest 93.

It'll be interesting to see what the system (regardless of what it becomes) does to the weather here next week. Hopefully, it won't be another Don because the whole event with that storm here was okay but still unimpressive and plain out of the ordinary when he moved onshore.
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I best call the FRESCA guys and get another couple o case's.
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348



360

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Quoting sunlinepr:
Thanks for the update Levi... very informative....

Do you think this could be a low record ACE year?


For who, the Atlantic, or the globe? The western Pacific is above normal so far, recovering from last year, and thus the global average is not down quite as far as it has been the last couple of years, so we likely won't set a low global record this year. The Atlantic, despite having weak storms so far, probably won't keep spitting out pittances for long, and I expect ACE will not end up below normal at the end.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
276

Gets into the GOM by 324...

Consistency? lol



No Consistency for $1000..I am going to go with What is the GFS, Alex??
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Now the GFS has a GOM storm..has a much southern route..
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Quoting nigel20:

Wow!



I'm under-experienced here, usually a lurker.... what is this a map of?
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12z GFS has a pretty intense and large storm for an after truncation period.

Hits LA by 360

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Quoting hcubed:


And yet you want people to believe your every word...


Flag, ignore, move on.

No sense in quoting that idiot, who has no idea what he's talking about.
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Thanks for the update Levi... very informative....

Do you think this could be a low record ACE year?
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Gert's center is getting displaced.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


EURO has a much less impressive system.

If it ever looks like the GFS, that's when I'd be interested.


Did yesterday AM, had a hurricane.
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276

Gets into the GOM by 324...

Consistency? lol

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12z GFS is poised to show a Gulf of Mexico storm. It's one run, so no need for alarm right now, as the wave is just now leaving Africa.
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Quoting SLU:


Told you it would rain today. :D

You were correct!
It has rained JUST TO MY NORTH!
Can you please set your sights a couple miles further south?

It would be much appreciated.
Thanks.
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Quoting reedzone:
Pattern really comes into place after 200 hours. While it's a long time, the EURO even has the same pattern. The East Coast could receive there first hit since 2008 if a storm were to develop in the heart of this evolving pattern. It's all starting to become clear to me that the high in Texas retreats some, high pressure dominates near the Azores and builds right along the East Coast, a good setup for an East Coast storm.


I agree, always appreciate your input. Though I don't need another Isabel here in VA.
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Quoting reedzone:
This is setting up to be a dangerous season for the East Coast. A repeat of Gloria is not out of the realm of possibility as we have a scenario setting up for an East Coast storm over the next few weeks. Looks like North Carolina to Maine may not be lucky this time around.


Good to see you reed.

I agree, and I am keeping a close eye out here in VA.
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Roll your mouse over the text to see the latest GOES-East Satellite Imagery courtesy of the LSU Earth Scan Laboratory

Gulf of Mexico & Carribean
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244. SLU
Quoting pottery:
Strong squalls with NorthWest winds here for the last 30 minutes.
The sky is black to my north and thundering loudly...

No rain as yet.
Temps have dropped big time though which is a relief.


Told you it would rain today. :D
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189

Gets into the WCARB by 276.

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Quoting cloudburst2011:



lol reed you need to take your crystal ball in for some repairs that is not going to happen...just like franklin and gert was going to the eastcoast...REED give it up..you cant read steering maps i see...well everyone has and opinion but you scare the hell out the people with your nonsense..


And yet you want people to believe your every word...
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As I mentioned a couple of days ago, we haven't heard the last from 93L, and as expected it is flaring up now on approach to the lesser Antilles. It will probably struggle in the central-eastern Caribbean due to strong trade winds which are not favorable for developing a closed surface circulation, but in the western Caribbean conditions may be more favorable for mischief.
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Quoting HuracanKY:


Reliance on the models only, is a mistake as many systems have developed without support. It's best to just wait and observe.


Only weak systems have developed without support so far.

The ECMWF has performed exceedingly better than virtually any other global model with both Arlene and Emily.

The seasons "stronger" cyclones if you will...
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, August 15th, with Video


Good update as usual.
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, August 15th, with Video

Thanks for the update.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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