Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Looks like some northerly shear is effecting Gert, though there's a new blowup directly over the COC.
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Quoting reedzone:


Actually Levi, another message I am seeing from the 00Z/06 runs of the GFS and 00Z EURO is that the pattern is setting up for an East Coast run. In other words, no more OTS systems near the CONUS. The high builds and the troughs are a bit further west allowing a potential storm to touch the CONUS.


See post #304. NAO went positive for the first time in 68days. Implications are for increased ridging on the east coast if it stays positive.
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Nice spin starting.....and the intensity models are going against history of development in the Eastern Caribbean.......NEED TO WATCH 93L
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Seems like a good shot at some...

"mischief"


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93L has a upper level anticyclone over it. This is going to help in developement.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6757

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





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332. 7544
93l looks best of all today but looks like its trying to go wnw at this hour what u think ?
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Quoting tropicfreak:


So could we be looking at a Charley-like track? (Not necessarily intensity-wise)


Ehh, bit more east.. Like the 06Z and 00Z GFS runs.. Again, wayy to early to tell.
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Quoting SLU:


lol

Well the theory behind it is that the hot, dry weather in Trinidad in recent times was caused by a lack of water vapour in the atmosphere and an unusually timid ITCZ. However, with the arrival of 93L, there's more moisture today and that, in conjunction with the usual daytime heating would result in thunderstorm development today.

True!
I was expecting rain today, and I'm getting it now.
But I WAS surprised to see how far north the main convection had jumped between midnight and 8:00am.

I anticipated the rain would be part of what is now 93L , but it is more convective and is also being pulled into the disturbance from the south.
Hence the SSE winds mentioned earlier.
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Quoting Patrap:






Well that's nasty.It's even higher than 2010 and 2009.Let's hope the ridge surpresses any storm from using that.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Hey...Emily wasn't formidable. Emily just got special treatment?


Sorry meant "classified system"
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Lesser Antilles Radar:

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Quoting cloudburst2011:



i have not said the us would get hit by a major hurricane klike reed is saying...come on he is talking over 200 hours out give me a break with his nonsense...you dont have to believe me just wait and see how the season goes on...then you can tell me what you think...REED is frightning people all along the eastcoast for nothing thats what i call a plain nut case..


Well, he's been posting here longer than you have.

Your history goes back two months?

At least he's not using data from the Stormtop Weather Service.

THAT's the kind of stuff that scared people...
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Quoting Levi32:
There is one strong message we can take from the GFS though. The fact that it is now showing major hurricanes in the long-range, no matter where they are, indicates to us that the tropical atmosphere is reaching maturity, and the very peak of the season is upon us where we are going to get the strongest storms of the year, from now through the first half of October. When the monsters start showing up in the models, it's time to watch out.


Actually Levi, another message I am seeing from the 00Z/06 runs of the GFS and 00Z EURO is that the pattern is setting up for an East Coast run. In other words, no more OTS systems near the CONUS. The high builds and the troughs are a bit further west allowing a potential storm to touch the CONUS.
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I have been following this website for a good while now, and since I LIVE ON THE SW Louisiana coast its a good site to get great info.

Here comes the however. I really like this blog site. There are some very informed people on this blog when it comes to the Tropics, but somtimes it seems there are some who throw out facts as though they came straight from the NHC OR SOME OTHER SOURCE OF REPUTATION. And yes it is subject that I have studied for 35 years, because of the stories my father told me about watching 7 people die in front of him when he was 9 YEARS OLD IN HURR AUDREY IN 1957. I have a deep respect for experts on this subject and those on this blog who take it very seriously and do give out honest information, and even try to self predict what might happen given factual ifo and not on cause I want something to devastate my area for just the excitement factor so THANKS TO THE ONES WHO REALLY CARE AND DISCUSS HONESTLY OR EVEN OUT OF A CURIOUS MIND. BUT FOR THOSE WHO JUST LIKE TO THROW IN A MONKEY WRENCH. I THINK BREAK.COM IS MORE OF YOUR FORTE
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Quoting reedzone:


REED model is only ran when a formidable storm is forecast to affect the CONUS.


Hey...Emily wasn't formidable. Emily just got special treatment?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I could see a 20% at 2pm...



Possible, but look at the convergence.


Then we have the dry air to the west, probably going to get into the minuscule circulation.


That means that 93L will loose most of its heavy thunderstorm activity within the next 5 hours, and won't look as pretty. I think it will stay at 10%.
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Quoting pottery:
93L is doing a very good job at punching it's way through the dry air to it's west.
At this time of day, that's pretty impressive !


If pottery is impressed,,Im paying attention.

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Quoting scott39:
I just "love" to see the comments after a model predicts a Cat 12 coming off of Africa and hitting land 2 WEEKS LATER!! LOL


Lol..Yup. The GFS shows a huge hurricane hitting me in 15 days. I've already called and told crane operators to lift my house off its foundation...I'm moving to Canada.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



i have not said the us would get hit by a major hurricane klike reed is saying...come on he is talking over 200 hours out give me a break with his nonsense...you dont have to believe me just wait and see how the season goes on...then you can tell me what you think...REED is frightning people all along the eastcoast for nothing thats what i call a plain nut case..


/delurk

Sadly, that's a trait of a lot of people here. They have forecast bias. Reed constantly calls for east coast hits. Others historically have called for every storm to ignore troughs, break ridges, and veterans of this place need only hear "pump the ridge" to know of one particular bias.

Using models-and only ONE model-beyond five days out is a fool's game. Anyone remember last week when 92L and 93L danced all over the east coast in one run? How'd that pan out?

Every time I come here and see someone say this is a great place for people to get the REAL information about storms, I laugh. It's a great place to get a lot of hyperbole, and despite a few good people who know what they're talking about, it's a great place to see the phrase "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing" in action.

/relurk.
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93L in 120HR by 12ZNGP


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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, the Reed model is highly biased towards the CONUS, while the GFS is highly biased towards an OTS scenario. I tell Reed that I like to split the difference and go down the middle. :-D

Nah, Reed is right, though. Models love to over-do the trofs in the long term. It will happen almost every time, unless a storm quickly strengthens.


REED model is only ran when a formidable storm is forecast to affect the CONUS.
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No Canes for the 26-29th allowed as Rising Tide 6 Blogger's conference is on.

And we needs lotsa libation time at a few, er, establishments here.

To discuss matta's and such..

..of course.





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Join us as we map out the course of this great city now and into the future!



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Quoting reedzone:


I think in more terms of going up the EC.. Though it's wayy to early to tell, hasn't even developed. It may not..


So could we be looking at a Charley-like track? (Not necessarily intensity-wise)
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93L is doing a very good job at punching it's way through the dry air to it's west.
At this time of day, that's pretty impressive !
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309. SLU
Quoting pottery:
SLU
It's coming down now.
Thanks, man.
I dont know how you do it, but thanks again!

LOL


lol

Well the theory behind it is that the hot, dry weather in Trinidad in recent times was caused by a lack of water vapour in the atmosphere and an unusually timid ITCZ. However, with the arrival of 93L, there's more moisture today and that, in conjunction with the usual daytime heating would result in thunderstorm development today.
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I could see a 20% at 2pm...

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There is one strong message we can take from the GFS though. The fact that it is now showing major hurricanes in the long-range, no matter where they are, indicates to us that the tropical atmosphere is reaching maturity, and the very peak of the season is upon us where we are going to get the strongest storms of the year, from now through the first half of October. When the monsters start showing up in the models, it's time to watch out.
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Wave off Africa is introduced at the 12z surface analysis.

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Quoting TampaSpin:


Reed i see it going into the Central GOM as well ........i said earlier that after looking at all the Models they seemed to be shifting toward a Trough to allow a turn......and then i got shot down........LOL.......i don't put too much support that far out but, it is showing something we should take very serious and not just brush what a very good historical model is showing.....JUST SAYN


I think in more terms of going up the EC.. Though it's wayy to early to tell, hasn't even developed. It may not..
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The record breaking -NAO has come to an end at 68 consecutive days. Previous record set 12/22/62-2/23/63 (64 consecutive days). Implications are for increased ridging if the positive NAO continues.

13Aug2011 0.18812E+00
14Aug2011 0.45135E+00
15Aug2011 0.35263E+00
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Just hang on NC. It'll be coming your way at the 18z run. :)


LOL..exactly..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15219
I just "love" to see the comments after a model predicts a Cat 12 coming off of Africa and hitting land 2 WEEKS LATER!! LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6757
Quoting Levi32:
Again, one run of the GFS on a wave that hasn't even fully left Africa yet is no cause for alarm. Folks should keep in mind that in an average week of model cycles during the peak of the season, the GFS will put a single system onto the coastline of almost every land mass in the western Atlantic, and then almost every square kilometer of ocean west of 50W. It is worthless to talk about where it has a system in 15 days. As always, we will know more if and when the system develops.


If I believe the GFS everytime it had a storm hitting NC, I would have evacuated at least 10 times this season already..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15219
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, I would rather listen and believe Reed WAY more than I would listen and believe anyone like stormkat/cloudbust. He's a well respected blogger in my opinion, and a great contribution to the blog.. where as cloudbust is only here to stir up trouble. Best to ignore him.


Yeah, the Reed model is highly biased towards the CONUS, while the GFS is highly biased towards an OTS scenario. I tell Reed that I like to split the difference and go down the middle. :-D

Nah, Reed is right, though. Models love to over-do the trofs in the long term. It will happen almost every time, unless a storm quickly strengthens.
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I see the blog is having one of those days again.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Now the GFS has a GOM storm..has a much southern route..


Just hang on NC. It'll be coming your way at the 18z run. :)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, I would rather listen and believe Reed WAY more than I would listen and believe anyone like stormkat/cloudbust. He's a well respected blogger in my opinion, and a great contribution to the blog.. where as cloudbust is only here to stir up trouble. Best to ignore him.


Thanks, I never said a storm would form, just said the pattern is most likely going to change for the worse and may effect the East Coast if a storm is around.
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Quoting nigel20:

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, a measure of the oceanic heat content from the sea surface to the depth of the 26°C isotherm)


thank you!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. Would I get alarmed? ;D
Does look awfully familiar to a run from a few days ago.





Except that run showed 93L, instead of this new Africa wave.
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Quoting Chucktown:


You gotta stop that crap Reed - its 360 hrs out. GFS also showed 93 L hitting South Carolina as a Hugo type storm last week - how's that gonna work out?


He never said it was going to hit the gulf coast as a strong hurricane.

Stop criticizing reed. You are just jealous that you aren't as talented of a forecaster as he is.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Almost enough time for me to lift my house off its foundation and move it to Canada.
Good to have Options.
Coming down nice and heavy here now, with no wind!
Just the way I like it.
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Quoting reedzone:
It has been said that the GFS once after going OTS on a few runs, then an East Coast run would next strike the GOM. Maybe Mexico on the next run.. It's a pattern that the GFS does before the system forms. Did it with Bill in 2009 and Dean in 2007.

Dum Dum Duuummmmm

Hold on to your hats LA


Reed i see it going into the Central GOM as well ........i said earlier that after looking at all the Models they seemed to be shifting toward a Trough to allow a turn......and then i got shot down........LOL.......i don't put too much support that far out but, it is showing something we should take very serious and not just brush what a very good historical model is showing.....JUST SAYN
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291. SLU
Quoting reedzone:
It has been said that the GFS once after going OTS on a few runs, then an East Coast run would next strike the GOM. Maybe Mexico on the next run.. It's a pattern that the GFS does before the system forms. Did it with Bill in 2009 and Dean in 2007.

Dum Dum Duuummmmm

Hold on to your hats LA


Right smack on the 6 year anniversary of KATRINA?
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Again, one run of the GFS on a wave that hasn't even fully left Africa yet is no cause for alarm. Folks should keep in mind that in an average week of model cycles during the peak of the season, the GFS will put a single system onto the coastline of almost every land mass in the western Atlantic, and then almost every square kilometer of ocean west of 50W. It is worthless to talk about where it has a system in 15 days. As always, we will know more if and when the system develops.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
348



360



2007,that is from the wave off Africa right?
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Quoting Chucktown:


You gotta stop that crap Reed - its 360 hrs out. GFS also showed 93 L hitting South Carolina as a Hugo type storm last week - how's that gonna work out?


You possibly can't take a darn joke dude.. Im not believing the GFS run.. Though I do believe the pattern will be changing over the next 2 weeks that could be more of a threat to the USA IF a storm forms.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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