Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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BTW I think Gert could become our first hurricane.Well there's a chance.
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Potential pattern shift based on the early GFS runs and EURO runs

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Quoting DocNDswamp:


Why bother with the expense?
Hurricane X will do the job free of charge!
;)

Such long range projections do serve as wake-up reminder we're nearing prime time / need for residents to finalize storm-readiness preparations... and I'm guilty of a few tasks still awaiting my attention! Besides the extra Fresca...


True. We Mississippians know all about having hurricanes clearing the foundation. :-p

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Guys dont have to worry about reedzone. I've known him for 10 years going back to flhurricane.com and another site.. both sites he was banned.. not sure if he is still on flhurricane.com but he use to think every system was coming to florida. Every cloud was going to form into a Cat3 or higher storm. He would post up stuff and scare people without facts. We called him guesscaster since he makes guesses and if 1 of them comes right.. he says.. "told you so". 99.5% of the time he is wrong.
Now while we are glad he is into atmospheric science and the tropics, it's usually the same old. Eastcoast of Florida or U.S. He's more entertainment than Meteorology. Main people to listen to are any Mets or the NHC and it's discussions.. and also peeps..anything more than 3 days out.. you can throw out.. unless ECMWF,GFS and GFDL all agree on that or even up to 5 days. More than that.. just pick up your usual Farmer Alnamac
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Quoting Patrap:


Gonna need xtra ice And a Umbrella me tinks too.


Ref? How bout I be Drill Instructor Teddy. LOL.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



just let me say does lefty and nash ring a bell ..i will leave it at that...you dont have to know what happened in 2004...


Yes, lefy and nash do ring a bell. But cloudburst2011 from 2004 doesn't.

Try again.
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Looks like the trof's have been swooping down this year almost every other week.I can currently feel the effects of it outside.It's a bit breezy and cloudy outside.This reminds me mostly of how 2009 was up here.I remember alot of summer days being either cloudy or rainy.Will tthe trof's protect the east coast?.We shall see.
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Haven't seen the 'super chart' posted yet...
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Maybe cloudtop and reed could ine up in the trenches for a little one on one.Those drills in 100 degree heat seem to settle who is the man.Teddy could be the ref.And pat and i will sit in the shade and watch.With a poboy and a barqs of course whodat.


Gonna need xtra ice And a Umbrella me tinks too.
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Quoting pottery:

Good to see you are On The Ball, Pat.
As usual, too.

heheheh



Do I hear a Glass crinkling down there with ice and spirit's as you observe for us?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Its been deactivated.

Was a quasi-tropical system in the North Atlantic.


96L was re-activated this AM, not sure if its been de-activated again.
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Maybe cloudtop and reed could ine up in the trenches for a little one on one.Those drills in 100 degree heat seem to settle who is the man.Teddy could be the ref.And pat and i will sit in the shade and watch.With a poboy and a barqs of course whodat.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709




Still some SUPER Dry Air to overcome......it will have to makes its on Moist Environment to become a player in the tropics.
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Quoting Levi32:
Dry air ahead of 93L will be an issue for the system, as will the stronger trade winds south of PR and the Dominican Republic. This morning's sounding out of San Juan, Puerto Rico shows the deep layer of dry air from 900mb upward.


93L has been fighting Dry Air for several days.
It is still doing the ON & OFF sequence.
But today it looks good to go.

Yes, the Dry is restricting it, but in spite of that, and in spite of the History that goes with the Dead Spot in the East Carib., I say we MAY see something unusual here!

BBL>>>>>>>>>
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DocNDswamp, good to see yas.



Saints open vs Green Bay Sept 8 NFL opener,,last 2 SB champs slugfest.


Indeed now thru the 8th on "The Chart" is Voodoo time.


Checking the Stabil Fuel today with a Jenny Crank and 5 minute run.




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Well being on our 7th named storm I think that came to a surprise to some people(Me).I thought at least we'll be on our third or fourth by now in the season.However I don't see a storm forming in at least a week.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Its been deactivated.

Was a quasi-tropical system in the North Atlantic.


Phew! Thanks. Kind of caught me off-guard there for a second.
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this site is truly day and night between day and night.:) last night the people on this site were saying that 93l was nothing and not impressive and today its a different story. i had mentioned that a week ago all the talk on this site was 93l would not do anything till it hit the caribbean. well, it is now starting to develop right where some said it would, and the time some said it would. good job to those some you get an A+ in my book
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Quoting fmbill:
It's on the Navy Site


Its been deactivated.

Was a quasi-tropical system in the North Atlantic.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:


i have no clue what you are talking about i have been posting here since 2004 ..reed is the NEW KID on the block sir..


Member Since: June 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 450

Proof of posts by cloudburst2011 BEFORE June 24th would be greatly appreciated.

Till then...
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Precipitable Water imagery shows the dry air west of 93L as well. It actually looks like a similar setup to when Emily moved through this area, in terms of the amount of dry air in the way, as well as its orientation around the system.

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Quoting Patrap:




See post's 260-261 and 262

Good to see you are On The Ball, Pat.
As usual, too.

heheheh
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol..Yup. The GFS shows a huge hurricane hitting me in 15 days. I've already called and told crane operators to lift my house off its foundation...I'm moving to Canada.


Why bother with the expense?
Hurricane X will do the job free of charge!
;)

Such long range projections do serve as wake-up reminder we're nearing prime time / need for residents to finalize storm-readiness preparations... and I'm guilty of a few tasks still awaiting my attention! Besides the extra Fresca...
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It's on the Navy Site
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Quoting TampaSpin:





Nice spin starting.....and the intensity models are going against history of development in the Eastern Caribbean.......NEED TO WATCH 93L
Hey if Emily can develop in the eastern Caribbean why not 93L? Dry air seems to be the only issue at this point, but it has fared well in moistening the environment around it.
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358. SLU
Quoting pottery:

True!
I was expecting rain today, and I'm getting it now.
But I WAS surprised to see how far north the main convection had jumped between midnight and 8:00am.

I anticipated the rain would be part of what is now 93L , but it is more convective and is also being pulled into the disturbance from the south.
Hence the SSE winds mentioned earlier.


I hope you don't get too much of it to cause flooding ...
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96L?
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Dry air ahead of 93L will be an issue for the system, as will the stronger trade winds south of PR and the Dominican Republic. This morning's sounding out of San Juan, Puerto Rico shows the deep layer of dry air from 900mb upward.

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Quoting pottery:

Buy more Fresca!

:):))


Only if he shares.. ;)
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Quoting Levi32:


Their respective ensembles agree decently though.

GFS ensembles Day 8:



ECMWF ensembles Day 8:



Yeah, those look more in sync. Definitely makes you wonder about the eventual fate of 93L because a weakness could certainly be present along the Central/Eastern GOM at the time 93L is in the Western Caribbean.
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How strong will Gert be at peak?

a)60 MPH
b)65 MPH
c)70 MPH
d)75 MPH
e)80 MPH
f)HIGHER
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Quoting pottery:

Buy more Fresca!

:):))




See post's 260-261 and 262
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Hardly any agreement between the GFS/Euro in 8-10 day 500mb mean. The Euro would be more dangerous to the CONUS, though:



Their respective ensembles agree decently though.

GFS ensembles Day 8:



ECMWF ensembles Day 8 (left frame):

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12z NOGAPS looks to have 93L in the GOM but weak..also starts a wave train from Africa..

Link
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16226
Quoting tropicfreak:


Stop it and get over your jealousy of reed.


Actually relurk is correct
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Quoting TampaSpin:





Nice spin starting.....and the intensity models are going against history of development in the Eastern Caribbean.......NEED TO WATCH 93L


I doubt you remember 92L from last year. Same situation here.

Intensity models brought it up to about a Cat3/4 in the WCARB.

Obviously never happened there.

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GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery


These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

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Quoting Patrap:


If pottery is impressed,,Im paying attention.


Buy more Fresca!

:):))
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Hardly any agreement between the GFS/Euro in 8-10 day 500mb mean. The Euro would be more dangerous to the CONUS, though:

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Earlier


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Quoting reedzone:


Actually Levi, another message I am seeing from the 00Z/06 runs of the GFS and 00Z EURO is that the pattern is setting up for an East Coast run. In other words, no more OTS systems near the CONUS. The high builds and the troughs are a bit further west allowing a potential storm to touch the CONUS.


The break in the ridge is farther west, over the central-eastern GOM during the next 6-10 days, but it all depends on where the storm comes from and how strong it is. A storm developing and coming in north of the Caribbean will still be hard-pressed to reach the coast, as the pattern remains fragile there. A storm becoming strong in the Caribbean, as the 12z GFS shows, would have a much better chance of affecting the United States, as the Gulf of Mexico is now more open for business for the first time this season.
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Looks like some northerly shear is effecting Gert, though there's a new blowup directly over the COC.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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