Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting RitaEvac:
Oh wait...that's not the sputtering sound of the ridge breaking down, that's the Houston Texans playing tonight on national TV


I thought you were hearing the Astros season
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Good Morni..er..Afternoon everybody.
*stretch and a yawn*
SwingShift signing in.

What is this about Apocalyptocane and has anybody got a good guess on circulation with 93L yet?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


93L is going to have its hurdles, for sure. I think it's too late for it to do anything in the Eastern Caribbean and it most likely won't try to develop until it reaches the Western Caribbean. The state that it's in when it reaches the Western Caribbean will have a lot of impact on its future as a weaker system will most likely continue westward into Central America. However, a stronger system would feel any weakness to the north and possibly be pulled into the Gulf. Anyway, I think it will have its chances if it can stay somewhat healthy through the Central Caribbean. Dry air is going to put a damper on it for a while though.
.
Quoting mcluvincane:
Looks like washingtonian will be banned for the cursing
Still here.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



REED you need to stop scaring people on the east coast..you are probably the reason the cardiac arrests have gone up there...REED at least wait until they have a YC in the neighborhood before you run people out of n carloina..you have no idea how your comments affect peoples lives...so turn it down a few notches..


and yours telling east coast residents are safe to not prepare. Your a joke
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
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Quoting WxLogic:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151741
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 95 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS OF
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
Patrap: Rising Tide, eh? Sold. I haven't been to one yet, but the infamous Dambala of Zombie blog is a respected and intrepid friend. I could totally do a cocktail with each of y'all. And besides - August 28th is my birthday.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Lol...Watch out, Levi. The 12z CMC brings a massive <980mb low pressure into Alaska at the end of the run.



I'm gonna die.
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93L is creating its own moist environment. Will be interesting to see how its affected by the desert of dry air that is the Eastern Carib. If somehow it pulls a surprise (and its already surprised many including the NHC and Dr. Masters by rising from the ashes in the last 36 hours) and strengthens to a hurricane in the western Carib. it should be more affected by the upper level steering currents which would move it more north into the Gulf of Mexico rather than a western course into Central America. The weakness is clearly moving into the eastern Gulf. Will 93L be strong enough to find it? Stay tuned.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well it was a couple of bloggers on the other page.You have any thoughts on 93L and what it might do in the western carribean?.


93L is going to have its hurdles, for sure. I think it's too late for it to do anything in the Eastern Caribbean and it most likely won't try to develop until it reaches the Western Caribbean. The state that it's in when it reaches the Western Caribbean will have a lot of impact on its future as a weaker system will most likely continue westward into Central America. However, a stronger system would feel any weakness to the north and possibly be pulled into the Gulf. Anyway, I think it will have its chances if it can stay somewhat healthy through the Central Caribbean. Dry air is going to put a damper on it for a while though.
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Quoting WxLogic:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151741
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 95 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS OF
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


stormchaser3007 called it, great job on his part :)
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93L
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THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Indeed DocNDswamp,,Lambeau Field.

After being 9.5 in 69 and seeing Camille's wrath from Buras to Biloxi,,and what we saw there,even Higher and in Lake P in 05.

Well I dont think 40 years between them 2 was nuff.

Lawdy.

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Had to google port arms. Once in a lifetime snow storm in new Zealand?
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All I'll say is scottsvb is the pot calling the kettle black.. Thinks hes the smartest person in here. Ok.. Now back to the normal chat :)
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 151741
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 95 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS OF
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
Guadeloupe webcam

http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/mjtropic/1/sh ow.html
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I've been looking up at the sky here in SE TX, high pressure is in full control for now, but I've noticed a sputtering sound like engines shutting down. I expect to hear a huge decent noise of like a plane losing control a lil later this week.......as the ridge pulls outta TX

Just in time for 93L to visit the GOM.


Oh yeah i got an inch of rain yesterday we need lots more though so bring on 93L!!!
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I've been looking up at the sky here in SE TX, high pressure is in full control for now, but I've noticed a sputtering sound like engines shutting down. I expect to hear a huge decent noise of like a plane losing control a lil later this week.......as the ridge pulls outta TX

Just in time for 93L to visit the GOM.
I actually saw rain yesterday.  Granted, it was near Bellville, but that's a start.
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Oh wait...that's not the sputtering sound of the ridge breaking down, that's the Houston Texans playing tonight on national TV
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Quoting cloudburst2011:




yes i agree with 93L developing in the western caribbean...but it will have little time with its size envelope to be more then a strong tropical storm before it hits the yucatan...it could regenerate in the BOC where the ssts are really warm and hit mexico as our first hurricane of the season...


The longer it takes to build up a strong LLC which in turn causes a decent MLC to develop, then it would have no choice but to affect the Yucatan Peninsula.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
Looks like washingtonian will be banned for the cursing
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
Quoting MississippiWx:


I must have those people on ignore because I haven't seen hate comments.
Well it was a couple of bloggers on the other page.You have any thoughts on 93L and what it might do in the western carribean?.
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That East Coast soaker dropped some amounts beaucoup,yeah...
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Howdy Pat,
Should be a fine opener w Saints / Packers if we can avoid tropical disruptions... :(

Hiya MS Wx,
A sad reality isn't it, I've always felt Mississippi will most likely hold the record for storm surge height being funneled upon it with tracks like Camille and Katrina and adjacent topography.

Hoping for the best, nearing pre-prep mode for worst this season could bring...
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Quoting stormpetrol:
93L should be 30% at 1 pm cst


I would actually go with a 20% given that it has shown the ability to maintain some sort of convection as it moves W.

If convection persists/increases by 8PM tonight then I would bump it to 30%.

Upper level conditions are not bad for development and is just dealing with some easterly shear which should decrease further as it gets closer to the Central Carib. into the W Carib.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
Quoting Patrap:
The "Chart"..brought to you by, FRESCA



Wow that is a very pretty chart!!! I nominate as the new chart!!!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Why the hell is everyone writing freaking hate comments and bringing up peoples past?.It's like it all ways happens this time of year.


I must have those people on ignore because I haven't seen hate comments.
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Scotts vb.Hmmm is that Virginia Bech?If you are who i think you are it would be great to have you back ole Lefty lol.
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Quoting Patrap:



Shudder's nervously at Port arms.


ummmmm...yeah...agreed...btw...how the heck are ya Pat
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I've been looking up at the sky here in SE TX, high pressure is in full control for now, but I've noticed a sputtering sound like engines shutting down. I expect to hear a huge decent noise of like a plane losing control a lil later this week.......as the ridge pulls outta TX

Just in time for 93L to visit the GOM.
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401. 7544
looks like 93l wants to go wnw ?
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Lol...Watch out, Levi. The 12z CMC brings a massive <980mb low pressure into Alaska at the end of the run.

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Quoting Patrap:



Shudder's nervously at Port arms.


forward.. march!
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93L should be 30% at 1 pm cst
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The reason cloudtop does not show a older blog date hiccup is because he started as storm top.He then went to storm Kat.Now he is cloud top.His next handle will be storm mooch.The reason?Well he owes Pat and I over a hundred poboys for blown predictions he never paid up.And what is disgraceful doing that to a veteran like Pat.Number 2 he will never awnser anyone that knows him or pegs his mistakes.Is that not right lenny?Have you talked to the Queen lately?Anyway he will never change, not as long as he lives in a cellar under PatObriens with his fisher price weather station.Got to admit teddy my english and structure is still consistent lol.As a famous Louisiana sports commentator would say"this is for cloudtop."If if ands and buts were candies and nuts, and the queen had a different anatomy she would be king.Kind of sums up Cloudtop.I bet pat knows that famous quote and sportscaster lol.now you know his history hiccup.
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Quoting Levi32:
There is one strong message we can take from the GFS though. The fact that it is now showing major hurricanes in the long-range, no matter where they are, indicates to us that the tropical atmosphere is reaching maturity, and the very peak of the season is upon us where we are going to get the strongest storms of the year, from now through the first half of October. When the monsters start showing up in the models, it's time to watch out.


Yep. That's what I got out of the recent runs as well. And what I hope others get from them too. You don't know where they might end up. But chances are monsters can form from here on out. Everyone needs to pay attention and be prepared. Although I don't think that will stop us talking about what a model says 15 days out. LOL. Just too much to ask. :p
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Quoting pottery:
SLU
It's coming down now.
Thanks, man.
I dont know how you do it, but thanks again!

LOL
Send some rain my way Pottery
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12Z CMC

Now agreeing on developing 93L later in the period (W Carib) and subsequent waves in the CATL /EATL.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
The "Chart"..brought to you by, FRESCA

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Ref? How bout I be Drill Instructor Teddy. LOL.



Shudder's nervously at Port arms.
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BTW I think Gert could become our first hurricane.Well there's a chance.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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