Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Ya know, climatologically, we start easing off on temps right around now. Every week now, we should lose a degree on the high and a degree on the low. It's a shame when you have to concoct something to be hopeful for.

On the other hand, we'll see if our Texans' free-wheeling/trading/shaking had any effect. Everyone is a champ in preseason!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not falling for anything until I see the pattern shaping up myself.Models have been all over the place this year.They had 93L slaming into the east coast as a strong hurricane.And look what it is now.


Your looking at the storms, I'm looking at the pattern which hasn't been cut off by the models at all. Still on call for a change in the next few weeks. High pressure will start to dominate the Atlantic and the high in Texas will begin propagating northward, causing weaker troughs to swing by to the north.
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7 named storms, no hurricanes. It's the names. Don? Emily? Franklin? Gert? Then we have Harvey? Do these sound like major hurricanes? No. Irene and Lee maybe, but some of the others...Tammy? Nate? Sean? Phillipe? Please. Need names with some punch to them...Buck, Mike, Hazel, Riva...there you have some prospects. Science matters of course but these things seem to have a personality of their own judging by some of the storm behavior this year...it's not their fault.
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Quoting IKE:
Another one for Mexico?


That's been the pattern so far this year.
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Looks that way Ike moving way to fast.Looks c/a bound.Boy our luck seems to be holding out on the northern GulfCoast.Hope it continues.
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1z ECMWF has a pretty weak low pressure area forming with 93L by 84 hours.

Should run into CA.
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Quoting oreodogsghost:


Lots of little chirrins named Ike, yessir.

All around 2-2.5 now



Yeappar's,,we got a batch round 5 years or mo..as well.

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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


So did SSD.


What does it mean when they move their floaters?
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Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
We really do judge how bad, or active seasons have been on the threat to our local communities. Here in SW LOUISIANA WE WERE LULLED INTO SLEEP THAT BAD HURRICANES IN OUR AREA WAS A THING OF THE PAST,EVEN WHEN ANDREW CAME KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR IN 91.BUT IT HIT AND DEVASTATED THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WE JUST GOT SOME BREEZES HERE. NOT SINCE 1957 HAS OUR AREA REALLY BEEN IMPACTED BY A MAJOR. THEN IN THE LAST 8 YEARS IT SEEMED LIKE THE UPPER TEXAS -LOUISIANA COASTS WERE THE ONLY PLACES THOSE CONES OF UNCERTAINTY COULD POINT (TOUNGE IN CHEEK). WHILE IN THE YEAR 2005 KITRINA AND WILMA DID MAJOR DESTRUCTION WE HERE IN LA AND TX WERE ALMOST WIPED OFF THE MAP BY RITA. THEN HUMBERTO CAME OUT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND IN JUST A FEW HOURS A HURRICANE AND IT HIT PORT AUTHOR TX. .ONE MORE STORM EVOLVED IN THE EASTERN GULF AND HEADED STRAIGHT FOR GALVASTON.(I REMEMBER THAT CLEARLY BECAUSE I WAS ON THE ISLAND IN A CONDO A WEEK FOR SOME R AND R AND HAD TO HEAD BACK TO LA WHICH REALLY HAD MORE IMPACT THAN GAL DID FROM THAT STORM). WE THOUGHT IT WAS THE END OF THE WORLD UPON US WITH GUSTAV PUNCHING US IN THE GUT AND THEN IKE FINISHED US OFF WITH A RIGHT CROSS IN 2008. SO WHOEVER IT WAS THAT MENTIONED WE JUDGE HOW A SEASON IS BY GEOGRAPHY IS RIGHT ON TARGET,BECUSE IM SURE THE REST OF THE COASTAL STATES THAT YEAR THOUGHT NOTHING OF IT WHILE JUST IN A THREE YEAR PEROID RITA, AND THEN IKE COVERED US UP WITH WATER.


this is where you are wrong...Presslord, Patrap and many others have PORTLIGHT...they were one of the VOLUNTEER organizations that got supplies and headed into the devestated areas to help after many of those storms...and ALOT of the rest of us helped by gathering supplies, acquiring trucks, getting donations, loaning tents, campers etc so that those in devestated areas could be helped...many of us on the east coast took OUR OWN SUPPLIES to drop off points to help out because we didn't get hit those years...don't lump all of us into one category...HUNDREDS of us do care and do help
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Quoting reedzone:
Interested to see what the 12Z EURO does with the African Wave.. Again, if you go by the model trends, the pattern will be changing and could effect storm tracks from east to west. However, if we get a strong storm near Africa, likely to see a northward movement like Fred in 2009, Anything west of there should continue heading westward as the high pressure near the Azores, expands towards the EC. Also if you look at the models, the high is shaping up to where if a storm would be in the picture, there would be no sharp recurvatures like the last couple storms did. High western edge expands from east of the Bahamas to Canada which would get a storm to move NNE rather then ENE if a recurvature were to be in place.

Take the 00Z EURO for example, look at the western edge of the high..



And the GFSs western edge of the high.. the 00Z GFS


Indications form models are showing that the high will expand and also the "death ridge" should propagate north, allowing trough to be weaker and more north.
I'm not falling for anything until I see the pattern shaping up myself.Models have been all over the place this year.They had 93L slaming into the east coast as a strong hurricane.And look what it is now.
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Quoting Patrap:





Man dat bites,,no rain again?

Das baby Boom ,,,?

I bet the "Ike" rate spiked as well from 08


Lots of little chirrins named Ike, yessir.

All around 2-2.5 now
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Quoting reedzone:
Interested to see what the 12Z EURO does with the African Wave.. Again, if you go by the model trends, the pattern will be changing and could effect storm tracks from east to west. However, if we get a strong storm near Africa, likely to see a northward movement like Fred in 2009, Anything west of there should continue heading westward as the high pressure near the Azores, expands towards the EC. Also if you look at the models, the high is shaping up to where if a storm would be in the picture, there would be no sharp recurvatures like the last couple storms did. High western edge expands from east of the Bahamas to Canada which would get a storm to move NNE rather then ENE if a recurvature were to be in place.

Take the 00Z EURO for example, look at the western edge of the high..



And the GFSs western edge of the high.. the 00Z GFS


Indications form models are showing that the high will expand and also the "death ridge" should propagate north, allowing trough to be weaker and more north.


Great analysis Reed, glad you posted that
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1453
474. IKE
Another one for Mexico?


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The fact that the EURO (that hasn't formed much at all this season) is forming a formidable storm shows that there could very well be mischief in thew Atlantic.
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Article from Bloomberg.com on predictions for 93L and the African wave:

Link
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Quoting oreodogsghost:
Pat,

We got nuttin yesterday. Glad to see a few folks got a bit. tighter water restrictions started today. Only allowed to shower if it is at least two people in the shower. Gonna be interesting 9 months from now!

Woof!





Man dat bites,,no rain again?

Das baby Boom ,,,?

I bet the "Ike" rate spiked as well from 08
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93L looks like another Don round 2
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Could someone post some HTML code for a good floater for 93L!!! Thanks



Go to my Blog and follow the links......i have 3 floaters on 93L......
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20450
Interested to see what the 12Z EURO does with the African Wave.. Again, if you go by the model trends, the pattern will be changing and could effect storm tracks from east to west. However, if we get a strong storm near Africa, likely to see a northward movement like Fred in 2009, Anything west of there should continue heading westward as the high pressure near the Azores, expands towards the EC. Also if you look at the models, the high is shaping up to where if a storm would be in the picture, there would be no sharp recurvatures like the last couple storms did. High western edge expands from east of the Bahamas to Canada which would get a storm to move NNE rather then ENE if a recurvature were to be in place.

Take the 00Z EURO for example, look at the western edge of the high..



And the GFSs western edge of the high.. the 00Z GFS


Indications form models are showing that the high will expand and also the "death ridge" should propagate north, allowing trough to be weaker and more north.
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Agree. Didn't want you to get banned, just thought Admin might see the curse words :) or someone would of reported you.
93L is putting on some pounds.Seems it went into hibernation the last few days.It woke up hungry and now it's eating until it's growing more fat on it's self.Lol.A bear comes to mind.
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We really do judge how bad, or active seasons have been on the threat to our local communities. Here in SW LOUISIANA WE WERE LULLED INTO SLEEP THAT BAD HURRICANES IN OUR AREA WAS A THING OF THE PAST,EVEN WHEN ANDREW CAME KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR IN 91.BUT IT HIT AND DEVASTATED THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WE JUST GOT SOME BREEZES HERE. NOT SINCE 1957 HAS OUR AREA REALLY BEEN IMPACTED BY A MAJOR. THEN IN THE LAST 8 YEARS IT SEEMED LIKE THE UPPER TEXAS -LOUISIANA COASTS WERE THE ONLY PLACES THOSE CONES OF UNCERTAINTY COULD POINT (TOUNGE IN CHEEK). WHILE IN THE YEAR 2005 KITRINA AND WILMA DID MAJOR DESTRUCTION WE HERE IN LA AND TX WERE ALMOST WIPED OFF THE MAP BY RITA. THEN HUMBERTO CAME OUT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND IN JUST A FEW HOURS A HURRICANE AND IT HIT PORT AUTHOR TX. .ONE MORE STORM EVOLVED IN THE EASTERN GULF AND HEADED STRAIGHT FOR GALVASTON.(I REMEMBER THAT CLEARLY BECAUSE I WAS ON THE ISLAND IN A CONDO A WEEK FOR SOME R AND R AND HAD TO HEAD BACK TO LA WHICH REALLY HAD MORE IMPACT THAN GAL DID FROM THAT STORM). WE THOUGHT IT WAS THE END OF THE WORLD UPON US WITH GUSTAV PUNCHING US IN THE GUT AND THEN IKE FINISHED US OFF WITH A RIGHT CROSS IN 2008. SO WHOEVER IT WAS THAT MENTIONED WE JUDGE HOW A SEASON IS BY GEOGRAPHY IS RIGHT ON TARGET,BECUSE IM SURE THE REST OF THE COASTAL STATES THAT YEAR THOUGHT NOTHING OF IT WHILE JUST IN A THREE YEAR PEROID RITA, AND THEN IKE COVERED US UP WITH WATER.
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Quoting Skyepony:
RAMSDIS moved their floater to 93L.


So did SSD.
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Could someone post some HTML code for a good floater for 93L!!! Thanks


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?sat ellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13.5&lon=-56.4&zoom= 1&info=vis&quality=100&width=800&height=600&type=A nimation&numframes=15
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Quoting WaterWitch11:
Ya know the fighting gets so flipping old. So many GOOD bloggers have left because of it. You got something to say to someone that is bugging you, EMAIL THEM. Leave the drama off the blog.


{{{APPLAUSE}}}
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Pat,

We got nuttin yesterday. Glad to see a few folks got a bit. tighter water restrictions started today. Only allowed to shower if it is at least two people in the shower. Gonna be interesting 9 months from now!

Woof!
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Could someone post some HTML code for a good floater for 93L!!! Thanks


These are the only ones I know the link to. :) Link
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Quoting washingtonian115:
93L's thunderstorms seem to be blowing up dispite dry air.It could moisten it's surroundings.


Agree. Didn't want you to get banned, just thought Admin might see the curse words :) or someone would of reported you.
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1453
Quoting Skyepony:


FPL had a little nuclear incident down at Homestead this morning.


Got my attention for a moment, had a weekly test this morning of the EMS system but after reading the link noticed it was last thursday for the event.
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Ya know the fighting gets so flipping old. So many GOOD bloggers have left because of it. You got something to say to someone that is bugging you, EMAIL THEM. Leave the drama off the blog.
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Quoting oreodogsghost:
Pat,

The Venice, La. drilling mud plant and warehouse of my Dad's company disappeared after Camille. Freaking disappeared. Not a trace.

Woof


I shudder to think of Venice,,

I miss Blackie Campo and dem folks.''Dad Loved going to Empire and Happy Jack,,Dulac as well oreo.

Good to see yas. Hope the dust bowl is a tad betta.
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455. Skyepony (Mod)
RAMSDIS moved their floater to 93L.
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Looks like Gert Brooks is not a hit this year...did Bermuda need the rain?
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Could someone post some HTML code for a good floater for 93L!!! Thanks
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#438 -

Sorry podnah, but not funny... or cool to distort an official NHC statement as such...
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93L's thunderstorms seem to be blowing up dispite dry air.It could moisten it's surroundings.
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Pat,

The Venice, La. drilling mud plant and warehouse of my Dad's company disappeared after Camille. Freaking disappeared. Not a trace.

Woof
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Quoting srada:


and school has started back so this is adults, not kids..the blog is ridiculous today!
School hasn't started in much of Texas, as of yet.
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Quoting Stats56:


I thought you were hearing the Astros season


Hell, that was a long time ago when that fell out!
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I've been looking up at the sky here in SE TX, high pressure is in full control for now, but I've noticed a sputtering sound like engines shutting down. I expect to hear a huge decent noise of like a plane losing control a lil later this week.......as the ridge pulls outta TX

Just in time for 93L to visit the GOM.


Look out below!
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446. srada
Quoting tiggeriffic:
wow...it has gone from elementary school to preschool in here today...so sad...this site use to be such an awesome place to gather information without having to ignore 3/4 of the comments due to trollism and arguing. glad i have my list of people who i know have solid information on a sticky note on the side of my monitor...this is getting rediculous as well as the obscene language...


and school has started back so this is adults, not kids..the blog is ridiculous today!
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Quoting Mucinex:
Good Morni..er..Afternoon everybody.
*stretch and a yawn*
SwingShift signing in.

What is this about Apocalyptocane and has anybody got a good guess on circulation with 93L yet?


Apocalyptocane is what will bring Sharktopus to Miami Beach. ;) Looks like we had a named storm born and died while I was at a pinball expo in Orlando this weekend. My forearms are so sore from playing pinball for two days that it hurts to type, but happy to see nothing bad is happening any more than Bermuda getting grazed by a TS.

I'll just take another Tylenol and watch the experts here as things really get moving this week. :)
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wow...it has gone from elementary school to preschool in here today...so sad...this site use to be such an awesome place to gather information without having to ignore 3/4 of the comments due to trollism and arguing. glad i have my list of people who i know have solid information on a sticky note on the side of my monitor...this is getting rediculous as well as the obscene language...
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Quoting scottsvb:


People should already be prepared as of June 1st..you dont need to do anything else unless a storm is within 3 days of your area, then make sure you double check everything you have to be ready incase a hurricane Warning is issued for your area


+1000
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1453
441. Skyepony (Mod)
Pretty severe tornado in Honduras.

Damage in NY..
Flight delays were reported at all three major airports in the area. Transit officials said workers spent Sunday pumping water out of the subway system and fixing signals and switches after problems on the N, L and E lines, among others. Bus detours were in place to avoid flooded streets in Queens. Numerous reports of flooding on local streets and highways came in during the evening hours. The city Department of Environmental Protection had 21 sewer maintenance crews in the field at night, as well as emergency repair workers, spokesman Farrell Sklerov said in an email. The Red Cross said it provided five families with emergency housing after they were displaced by flooding in their homes in Brooklyn, Queens and Staten Island. Some local beaches were closed as a precautionary measure because storm runoff can cause elevated levels of bacteria. Consolidated Edison said 2,000 customers were without power Sunday night, mostly in Brooklyn, because of flooded manholes and downed power lines. Utility spokesman Chris Olert said the company expected to restore power to those customers by late Sunday night. The city's Office of Emergency Management activated its "situation room" to monitor the storms, spokesman Seth Andrews said.

OK had a horrid firestorm that burned near 40 homes & did 20mill in damage. One homeowner died.

1/2 the kids that stayed around Fukushima are testing positive for radiation exposure.

FPL had a little nuclear incident down at Homestead this morning.
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Quoting mcluvincane:


and yours telling east coast residents are safe to not prepare. Your a joke


People should already be prepared as of June 1st..you dont need to do anything else unless a storm is within 3 days of your area, then make sure you double check everything you have to be ready incase a hurricane Warning is issued for your area
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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