Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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850 mb vorticity increasing nicely with 93L from 3 hours ago..

Link
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537. SLU
Quoting kmanislander:


Any rotation caught by the radar is not at the surface due to the relfective angle.



Yeah but not necessarily. If the center is close enough to the origin of the radar beam it could still represent a surface circulation based on the angle.
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It looks as though things are going to start becoming interesting where the people live in the US. From members' observations that the Azones/Bermuda High is going to build west over time stopping recurvature and a growing number of westward moving strong disturbances coming off the African Coast, it looks like the western Carribean & GOM are going to be a hotbed of activity over at least the next month. I also gather that the strength and organization of storms will improve dramatically.

Am I reading all of this right?
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535. IKE
144 hour 12Z ECMWF.....


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Quoting USAFwxguy:
850mb vorticity still consolidating from -3hr:

Current:


-3hr:


That is what we are seeing in the visible loop.
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Trinidad And Tobago
Cities
Place Alerts Temp. Humidity Pressure Conditions Wind Updated
Piarco 86 °F 70% 29.86 in Scattered Clouds SSW at 5 mph 2:00 PM AST Save
Tobago Crown Point 86 °F 58% 29.89 in Mostly Cloudy NNE at 6 mph 2:00 PM AST Save
Tobago Crown Point 86 °F 58% 29.89 in Mostly Cloudy NNE at 6 mph 2:00 PM AST S
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12z ECMWF takes 9XL over PR as a pretty weak system by 168 hours.

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529. SLU
The EURO develops 93L in the Western Caribbean as well as falling in line with the GFS and CMC with the new wave developing near the Islands.

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Quoting Levi32:


Better for the storm to work from low to high than from high to low.

Trade winds are actually slower than normal in the central-eastern Caribbean right now due to the western periphery of the Azores ridge lying along 60-65W, illustrated by Gert. They are still faster than the winds blowing over the lesser Antilles, though, and thus 93L will still struggle there. However, the reason it is flaring up right now is due in part to the trade winds piling up and slowing down as they approach the lessers, again due to the periphery of the high. Warmer waters of >29C are also helping.

Unless this develops quickly as it enters the western Caribbean and becomes a hurricane, it will probably slip into or across central America, in my opinion. A weak storm will find it hard to take advantage of a weakness directly to its north over the eastern gulf.


If anything this looks like CA or across the Yucatan unless it slows appreciably just below Haiti which would allow for a course change. When these systems come barrelling through like this they have a tendency to hold a fairly straight line
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Quoting Levi32:


Emily looked much the same way, but dry air managed to be a continuous problem for her.


Good point. Love your videos and analysis btw.
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Quoting Levi32:


Emily looked much the same way, but dry air managed to be a continuous problem for her.


Yup i wouldnt trust the models too much, watch the obvious
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On the EPAC side, the EPAC could make a comeback, with invest 98E sitting at code red for 60 hours now, could be a contender for the CPAC, and then you also have a new invest 99E, that could become Fernanda if 98E becomes a CPAC system... 99E would be Greg if 98E becomes Fernanda.
Epac could definetely make a comeback...
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12Z EURO develops 93L into a TS and slams into Belize. It also continues to develop the African wave.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting Levi32:


Better for the storm to work from low to high than from high to low.

Trade winds are actually slower than normal in the central-eastern Caribbean right now due to the western periphery of the Azores ridge lying along 60-65W, illustrated by Gert. They are still faster than the winds blowing over the lesser Antilles, though, and thus 93L will still struggle there. However, the reason it is flaring up right now is due in part to the trade winds piling up and slowing down as they approach the lessers, again due to the periphery of the high. Warmer waters of >29C are also helping.

Unless this develops quickly as it enters the western Caribbean and becomes a hurricane, it will probably slip into or across central America, in my opinion. A weak storm will find it hard to take advantage of a weakness directly to its north over the eastern gulf.


yeah the water on the caribbean side is very warm i can personally atest to that ahhh the beach was so nice yesterday but i was amazed just how hot the water is.
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521. HCW
Hot off the presses the latest 93L NHC model runs


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Quoting RitaEvac:

Wichita Falls today tied its record of 79 days in a year at or above 100 (also from 1980). (Also, today is Wichita Falls' 81st day in a row at or above 90, and 104th of the year.)
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I might be crazy but it looks like some banding is starting to take shape on the south and east sides of 93L... Am I crazy?
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All the intensity models like Invest 93L hmmmmm??!?!?!?
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Quoting RitaEvac:


not quite sure where Charleston, SC would be on a scale like that but can tell you that we have also been above temps...i know we were no where near tx for lack of rain but did hit 27 consecutive days of no rain which for us to NOT have those pop up showers just due to high humidity is really strange...when we finally did start getting rain it has been torrential, mostly runoff...the temps for this year have been so far above normal, and the water temps here hit the magic 80 degree mark WAY early in the season...now...it is so warm it is like bath water...even when there is choppy stormy water...it is unreal
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Quoting tornadolarkin:


Haven't posted here in a while, but I have been noticing that people have been saying dry air is a problem. 93l has been pushing this dry air out of its way for the past several days. Look at your own PW image. It may pose a problem, But if it hasn't stopped it from getting this far, it doesn't seem to me that it will stop it now. Just IMO.


Emily looked much the same way, but dry air managed to be a continuous problem for her.
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For kicks

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514. IKE
120 hour 12Z ECMWF....


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Looks like a circulation might want to get going around 13N/60W , but I think its forward speed is more of hindrance now than anything else for 93L
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon

93L continues to push to the West at a fast clip and I dont expect it to slow much before 75 given the set up with the high in the Atlantic.

Conditions in Barbados still show winds out of the N with a pressure of 1011mbs, fairly benign as far as surface pressures go. The wind direction means that the wave axis has not yet reached Barbados which is near 13 N and 59W.

Cloud tops have warmed, which is to be expected, and there are no signs of imminent development.There is rotation evident in the visible satellite loop but this is largely confined to the lower levels of the atmosphere.


Better for the storm to work from the bottom up than from the top down.

Trade winds are actually slower than normal in the central-eastern Caribbean right now due to the western periphery of the Azores ridge lying along 60-65W, illustrated by Gert. They are still faster than the winds blowing over the lesser Antilles, though, and thus 93L will still struggle there. However, the reason it is flaring up right now is due in part to the trade winds piling up and slowing down as they approach the lessers, again due to the periphery of the high. Warmer waters of >29C are also helping.

Unless this develops quickly as it enters the western Caribbean and becomes a hurricane, it will probably slip into or across central America, in my opinion. A weak storm will find it hard to take advantage of a weakness directly to its north over the eastern gulf.
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Quoting SLU:


This position is about 15 miles north east of Barbados and heading straight for St. Lucia. :D

The radar shows the tiny center with weak convection rotating around it.


Any rotation caught by the radar is not at the surface due to the relfective angle.
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510. SLU
Quoting SLU:
273

WHXX01 KWBC 151807

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1807 UTC MON AUG 15 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110815 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110815 1800 110816 0600 110816 1800 110817 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.6N 59.2W 13.9N 62.5W 14.6N 66.2W 15.5N 69.9W

BAMD 13.6N 59.2W 13.9N 62.2W 14.4N 65.3W 15.1N 68.2W

BAMM 13.6N 59.2W 13.9N 62.3W 14.5N 65.5W 15.2N 68.7W

LBAR 13.6N 59.2W 14.0N 62.6W 14.4N 66.3W 15.1N 69.9W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 51KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 51KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110817 1800 110818 1800 110819 1800 110820 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.5N 73.6W 17.8N 80.2W 18.3N 85.3W 18.9N 89.8W

BAMD 15.8N 70.9W 17.2N 75.6W 18.3N 79.6W 19.2N 83.4W

BAMM 16.0N 71.8W 17.5N 77.2W 18.8N 81.8W 19.9N 86.3W

LBAR 15.9N 73.5W 16.9N 79.6W 15.4N 83.3W .0N .0W

SHIP 60KTS 73KTS 81KTS 87KTS

DSHP 60KTS 73KTS 81KTS 87KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 59.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 55.1W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 21KT

LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 50.6W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN



This position is about 15 miles north east of Barbados and heading straight for St. Lucia. :D

The radar shows the tiny center with weak convection rotating around it.
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Quoting Levi32:
Precipitable Water imagery shows the dry air west of 93L as well. It actually looks like a similar setup to when Emily moved through this area, in terms of the amount of dry air in the way, as well as its orientation around the system.



Haven't posted here in a while, but I have been noticing that people have been saying dry air is a problem. 93l has been pushing this dry air out of its way for the past several days. Look at your own PW image. It may pose a problem, But if it hasn't stopped it from getting this far, it doesn't seem to me that it will stop it now. Just IMO.
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18z HWFI brings 93L to 98 knots.

Pretty decent consensus.

I highly doubt that actually happens.
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Quoting reedzone:


Your looking at the storms, I'm looking at the pattern which hasn't been cut off by the models at all. Still on call for a change in the next few weeks. High pressure will start to dominate the Atlantic and the high in Texas will begin propagating northward, causing weaker troughs to swing by to the north.
Well the weather up here is expected to stay cool to average over the next few days thanks to the trof.
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New EPAC invest:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep992011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108151816
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 99, 2011, DB, O, 2011081518, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP992011
EP, 99, 2011081518, , BEST, 0, 114N, 941W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


{{{APPLAUSE}}}


AND WHISTLES!!!!!!!!!! +1000 WaterWitch11
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503. SLU
273

WHXX01 KWBC 151807

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1807 UTC MON AUG 15 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110815 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110815 1800 110816 0600 110816 1800 110817 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.6N 59.2W 13.9N 62.5W 14.6N 66.2W 15.5N 69.9W

BAMD 13.6N 59.2W 13.9N 62.2W 14.4N 65.3W 15.1N 68.2W

BAMM 13.6N 59.2W 13.9N 62.3W 14.5N 65.5W 15.2N 68.7W

LBAR 13.6N 59.2W 14.0N 62.6W 14.4N 66.3W 15.1N 69.9W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 51KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 51KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110817 1800 110818 1800 110819 1800 110820 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.5N 73.6W 17.8N 80.2W 18.3N 85.3W 18.9N 89.8W

BAMD 15.8N 70.9W 17.2N 75.6W 18.3N 79.6W 19.2N 83.4W

BAMM 16.0N 71.8W 17.5N 77.2W 18.8N 81.8W 19.9N 86.3W

LBAR 15.9N 73.5W 16.9N 79.6W 15.4N 83.3W .0N .0W

SHIP 60KTS 73KTS 81KTS 87KTS

DSHP 60KTS 73KTS 81KTS 87KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 59.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 55.1W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 21KT

LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 50.6W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
502. IKE

Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Looks that way Ike moving way to fast.Looks c/a bound.Boy our luck seems to be holding out on the northern GulfCoast.Hope it continues.
Amen to that.
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's been the pattern so far this year.
Yup.
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LGEM brings 93L to 100 knots and the DHSP gets it to about 90 knots.

Interesting since the ECMWF now develops it a bit.
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I just put 5 different interactive floaters on 93L on he Website........didn't see any point on floaters on Gret since Bermuda is out of harms way.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Good afternoon

93L continues to push to the West at a fast clip and I dont expect it to slow much before 75 given the set up with the high in the Atlantic.

Conditions in Barbados still show winds out of the N with a pressure of 1011mbs, fairly benign as far as surface pressures go. The wind direction means that the wave axis has not yet reached Barbados which is near 13 N and 59W.

Cloud tops have warmed, which is to be expected, and there are no signs of imminent development.There is rotation evident in the visible satellite loop but this is largely confined to the lower levels of the atmosphere.
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Miracles I tell yas my man,,frigging miracles beaucoup..



Katrina's ChildOnce a Frozen Embryo Rescued from Flood-ravaged New Orleans, He's Now a Warm-blooded Louisiana Boy
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NNE wind in Barbados .... 1011mb .... -1mb !
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12Z 93L HWRF

12Z 93L GFDL
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12z ECMWF seems to develop into a weak system by 96 hours.

African wave is barely noticeable.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


western periphery in those frames would still indicate a path off-shore... assuming you follow the 1014 or 1016 isobar as a general guide as to where the high pressure periphery is located.


An Earl like track if a storm were to be in the area, really depends on the pattern and how it really evolves.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Looks that way Ike moving way to fast.Looks c/a bound.Boy our luck seems to be holding out on the northern GulfCoast.Hope it continues.


Have you lost your mind! you just jinxed the whole gulf coast now
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Ya know, climatologically, we start easing off on temps right around now. Every week now, we should lose a degree on the high and a degree on the low. It's a shame when you have to concoct something to be hopeful for.

On the other hand, we'll see if our Texans' free-wheeling/trading/shaking had any effect. Everyone is a champ in preseason!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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