Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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587. SLU
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Should make some bloggers go crazy later today:

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
ECMWF has a nice looking hurricane in the central Bahamas by day 10.

972 mb hurricane



Let me guess, It will go out to see :)
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Quoting serialteg:


I see i got a new friend here :D


I'm a Packer fan too. Go way back to the Vince Lombardi and Bart Starr days
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12Z EURO showing a classic setup for a storm going up the East Coast..



Again, try to not focus on the storm, but the pattern. It's clear.
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93L looks to fat for comfort.
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Center of 93L seems to be developing near or just northeast of Barbados.
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ECMWF has a nice looking hurricane in the central Bahamas by day 10.

972 mb hurricane

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15920
Quoting serialteg:


I see i got a new friend here :D


Indeed!!
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93L's convection should continue to weaken as DMIN and ML dry air take their toll.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15920
577. JLPR2
What's going on here, I'm not seeing the arc clouds characteristic of a system dealing with dry air?
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Highly unlikely does not mean impossible. As we have seen this hurricane season already, tropical cyclones can spin up within a day and I see no reason why this 93L invest disturbance cannot do the same. Whether or not I agree with the opinion that the speeds of the lower levels and the speed of the overall system can hinder development, its not like this system is dealing with intense wind shear, actually shear is around 5-10 knots and dry air is the one detriment I can see with this system at this moment.
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575. SLU
Quoting kmanislander:


The rotation shown in the imagery is well to the east of where the radar is based. The axis is about to pass due N of Barbados at this time.


Analysis from the CIMSS-UW show that the rapidly increasing vorticity at the low levels is concentrated right where the radar rotation can be seen as well as where the NHC placed the "center".
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Quoting MississippiWx:
93L has formed an interesting look this afternoon. I think it would surprise many of us if this rate of organization persisted.



Yeah I agree.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting USCGLT:


PAT,
Got the 20KW genny all fueled up in Vancleave, so if need be you got a place to go and watch the game...but we are a "Packers" household LOL

"Go Pack"


I see i got a new friend here :D
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
850mb vort has increased significantly from 3 hours ago.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
Notice that 93L, even with its only short convective burst, has had no trouble expanding cirrus outflow in nearly all directions, illustrating that there are few upper-level restrictions on it right now. A light uniform easterly flow aloft will allow that if convection fires. This may also help 93L, as developing an upper anticyclone over itself won't be too difficult. As mentioned previously, though, it will also have struggles to deal with.

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TS/Hurricane moving WNW through the Bahamas by 222 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15920
Quoting NASA101:
850 mb vorticity increasing nicely with 93L from 3 hours ago..

Link


Thanks you much for that link. :) And I agree it has definitely increased in the last few hours.
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93L has formed an interesting look this afternoon. I think it would surprise many of us if this rate of organization persisted.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
Quoting RitaEvac:
Are we rooting for 93L? if so BRING IT TO TEXAS for crying out loud*


Comment only valid in cases of Tropical Storm, Depression, or low end Category 1 Hurricane. All other variations consider the above comment null and void. Not valid in all states, certain restrictions may apply.
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Southern Bahamas at 204 as a decent system.

Obviously different than the GFS and CMC.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15920
Quoting RitaEvac:
Are we rooting for 93L? if so BRING IT TO TEXAS for crying out loud



You might wanna take that back......One might regret what you wish for........but, i fully understand what you need tho. Keep in mind that Mother Nature has a tendency of balancing things out in time........JUST SAYN
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Quoting serialteg:


that alone wont form storms tho


Of course not!!!
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Quoting serialteg:


Im guessin ud take that back if it comes to be a monster


over 100mph, yea
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Quoting Patrap:
DocNDswamp, good to see yas.



Saints open vs Green Bay Sept 8 NFL opener,,last 2 SB champs slugfest.


Indeed now thru the 8th on "The Chart" is Voodoo time.


Checking the Stabil Fuel today with a Jenny Crank and 5 minute run.






PAT,
Got the 20KW genny all fueled up in Vancleave, so if need be you got a place to go and watch the game...but we are a "Packers" household LOL

"Go Pack"
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Are we rooting for 93L? if so BRING IT TO TEXAS for crying out loud


Im guessin ud take that back if it comes to be a monster
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
Sure seems like 93L is really making its own moist environment......The Dead Zone might not be the Dead Zone this time. The Caymans need to really watch 93L IMO!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
ECMWF has a huge trough over the EUS by 186 hours.


anything that far out is worthless
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Visible satellite imagery on 93L looking much better today.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Well, we're having a little "cool snap "...lol...here in Ms...it's only 88...so I've been out running errands.....93L looks kinda healthy ....certainly better..



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Back later
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Ok I guess my floater question was stupid, sometimes I don't get the easy things. They moved them to 93 to keep watch, right?! Ok I got it.
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A big question regarding 93L's track is exactly where the surface low consolidates, if it forms one. It may be a while before it does, but there is a bit of room for it to form either south of the convective area, or farther north more underneath of it. Naturally, a surface low developing farther south within the system would result in a farther south track, and vice versa.
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Are we rooting for 93L? if so BRING IT TO TEXAS for crying out loud

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Quoting mrpuertorico:


yeah the water on the caribbean side is very warm i can personally atest to that ahhh the beach was so nice yesterday but i was amazed just how hot the water is.


that alone wont form storms tho
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
544. IKE
168 hour....


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ECMWF has a huge trough over the EUS by 186 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15920
Quoting SLU:



Yeah but not necessarily. If the center is close enough to the origin of the radar beam it could still represent a surface circulation based on the angle.


The rotation shown in the imagery is well to the east of where the radar is based. The axis is about to pass due N of Barbados at this time.
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Quoting Levi32:
Trade winds in the central Caribbean have slowed over the last couple of days, which is some good news for 93L. Two days ago, there was a large area of 20-25kt winds south of Jamaica and Haiti. Today's most recent pass shows that almost everything west of 70W has slowed to under 15kts.

August 13th ASCAT:



August 15th ASCAT:




Maybe why models are jumping on development?
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vis is getting more interesting 93
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Trade winds in the central Caribbean have slowed over the last couple of days, which is some good news for 93L. Two days ago, there was a large area of 20-25kt winds south of Jamaica and Haiti. Today's most recent pass shows that almost everything west of 70W has slowed to under 15kts.

August 13th ASCAT:



August 15th ASCAT:


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850 mb vorticity increasing nicely with 93L from 3 hours ago..

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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