Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

Share this Blog
20
+

Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 638 - 588

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53Blog Index

Martinique reporting west winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sure looks like Texas just might get that drought relief it needs from 93L and maybe more than Texas might want.........Told ya RitaEvac........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
I know that its still pretty far out there but anyone notice that the GFS and UKMET have a decent size storm affecting the GOM around 8/20-8/21?


GFS has the system in the GOM in about 14 days.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
I know that its still pretty far out there but anyone notice that the GFS and UKMET have a decent size storm affecting the GOM around 8/20-8/21?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Rainbow image of DOOM!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twincomanche:
You trying to tell us something?


You know me. I am a man of few words.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:




THE NGP is now WOW......Belivers or NOT??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Tatoprweather:
Hurricane Names for 2011;
Arlene(Check)
Bret(Check)
Cindy(Check)
Don(Check, Pathetic, but Check)
Emily(Annoying, Check)
Franklin(Pointless NS, Check)
Gert(Check)
Harvey(Possible from 93L)
Irene (Possible in the next 10 days)
Jose
Katia (hopefully no vengence from Katrina's sister)
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina (Hopefully Rina stays AWAY FROM THE GULF)
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney (No Cat. 5 for you!)


Lee.....that's the one that worries me the most.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
Katia and Rina replacing Katrina and Rita?

Oh boy.....is this someone's idea of a crude joke?



More like no creativity. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
p451, you forgot Don replacing DENNIS, and Whitney Replacing WILMA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:
Katia and Rina replacing Katrina and Rita?

Oh boy.....is this someone's idea of a crude joke?



Worst replacements ever.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Caribbean Tropical Update
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like a armored shield is just plowing out the dry air for the back end where the circulation would form so it can survive

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The HWRF model OUCH.........Possible Harvey???


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Orange Crayon for 93L likely, you'll see 30% for the next few TWO's then you'll see that % progress further once again...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:


and something behind it trying to develop..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L say the hell with the dry air.
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404
Tatoprweather:
Hurricane Names for 2011;
Arlene(Check)
Bret(Check)
Cindy(Check)
Don(Check, Pathetic, but Check)
Emily(Annoying, Check)
Franklin(Pointless NS, Check)
Gert(Check)
Harvey(Possible from 93L)
Irene (Possible in the next 10 days)
Jose
Katia (hopefully no vengence from Katrina's sister)
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina (Hopefully Rina stays AWAY FROM THE GULF)
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney (No Cat. 5 for you!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Now that the ECMWF develops 93L.. might take this a little more seriously.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
Quoting FtMyersgal:


I'm a Packer fan too. Go way back to the Vince Lombardi and Bart Starr days


long time packers fan as well. live out in lehigh acres, where its always raining in the summer
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ECM'WTF'..


ECMWF starting to show consistency, but can't be taken seriously yet.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
607. JRRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So the next name in the list is Harvey... rigth?

With H

Like in Hurricane...with H.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Im not worried about dry air for 93L right now. It could become a problem, but I doubt it given its developing environment favoring a more moist atmosphere
Member Since: July 29, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 5
Yikes... That bites, and the EMCWF has done relatively well on forecasting systems so far this season. Something to watch out for in the coming 10 days for sure as well as 93L...
Euro; 10 days out 12Z


93L: TS Harvey hitting Belize... at 5 days out...


Then you know the rest, Harvey dies over Mexico/Central America, then 97L/ Next possible system goes into PR, and then toward Bahamas, but this a long range forecast, so dont be alarmed, these forecast will shift significantly throughout the week...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting USAFwxguy:
This image for long range ECMWF shows the 588 height well off shore. I think any system would be inclined to veer off shore, as opposed to a direct strike, unless that high begins to build back to the north of it.



If you loop the run, the high is actually building to the west some as the trough lifts out.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
I would say a LLC might be trying to form around 58.0 W 14.0 N.

Could possibly have Hurricane Harvey in 72 hours, but I would bump this up to maybe 84 hours due to the dry air around 93L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
599. JLPR2
Quoting angiest:


Funny how these two comments wound up together.  Is dry air impacting it or not? :)


I would like to know that too, I'm confused now, it is supposed to be dealing with dry air but it isn't showing the symptoms characteristic of a system with that problem.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gert has about 12hrs of favorable conditions left to pull off some intensification. I thought it had a chance to become our first hurricane, but its running out of time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
596. 7544
Quoting reedzone:


No, it wouldn't if the run were to continue. Too much ridging.


right to fla ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting mcluvincane:


Let me guess, It will go out to see :)


No, it wouldn't if the run were to continue. Too much ridging.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've been to military basic training camp, that is exactly what they do, tear you down and then build you up.
Member Since: July 29, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 5
Persistence is always a key factor, but 93L is making huge strides at the present time. It finally has something trying to get going at the surface and is stacked from 850mb all the way through 500mb.

Dry air is really not affecting the system too much right now...not to say that it won't down the road. The upper level anticyclone associated with 93L is helping somewhat with the dry air as convection is being ventilated well and able to re-fire much more easily.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
93L's convection should continue to weaken as DMIN and ML dry air take their toll.


Quoting JLPR2:
What's going on here, I'm not seeing the arc clouds characteristic of a system dealing with dry air?
Funny how these two comments wound up together.  Is dry air impacting it or not? :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Actually now that I look at the satellite imagery, 93L does not have the look of a system dealing with dry air, but more so a moistening environment as convergence seems to be increasing seen with the band of clouds being enhanced as they move towards the center of 93L to its northeast and the clouds on the south side of the center are converging towards the center near Barbados. This will likely see an upswing in convection rather then a regular downswing seen in weak developing systems given environmental conditions becoming more favorable.
Member Since: July 29, 2011 Posts: 9 Comments: 5

Viewing: 638 - 588

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
38 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron