Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Wow vorticity of 93L is stacked nice now. If it survives that shear and dry air ahead of it, I think we are going to have a strong one with such a high TCHP in the Caribbean.
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Quoting 7544:


right to fla ?


that setup has wilmington, nc written all over it, but we are 10 days out on the euro, soooo....
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686. IKE
Holy Toledo!


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Pretty soon the entire atlantic is going to be purple..



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img src="">
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23703


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Wrong post
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
what is that that the euro model has in the bahamas in several days? looks like a good sized hurricane
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its a little disorganized right now
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Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





If the ships is correct I would thing the statistical models would be more in line. The stronger the system becomes the more right bias the storm will have.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Think that's just because the I named storm usually develops in the peak of hurricane season.. seems like the worst storm of each season is an I just about.
2000 - Isaac (not retired, but Category 4)
2001 - Iris (retired, Category 4)
2002 - Isidore (retired, Category 3)
2003 - Isabel (retired, Category 5)
2004 - Ivan (retired, Category 5)
2005 - Irene (not retired, Category 2)
2006 - Issac (not retired, Category 1)
2007 - Ingrid (not retired, minimal TS)
2008 - Ike (retired, Category 4)
2009 - Ida (not retired, but made an unusual nearly hurricane landfall in November)
2010 - Igor (retired, borderline Category 4/5)
Interesting when was the last "H" name storm to be retired? If I had to guess it would be Hugo.
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Neat connection between Gert and 93L.

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Quoting Patrap:



I'd love to be there ,,the Holy Grail.

Jim Taylor was a Saint..as well as Doug Atkins.

..but 67' was a Long,long,time ago.
Isn't hanging out with packer fans a mortal sin for us SAINTS fans Pat? LOL
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659. HurricaneDean07 & 663. CybrTeddy

Lol, that's exactly right. Just some food for thought.


I just saw the 12z GFS...holy Jesus. LOL. Obviously nothing to be taken seriously, but the overall trend of models bringing an intense cyclone towards the Caribbean/United States is disconcerting.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Worst replacements ever.
Dunno, still trying to get over Ike -> Isaias (with apologies to any Isaias's out there).
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Did somebody looked at the red dot (IR imagery) located at the center of PR?

I'm in the middle of that rigth now...OUCH.
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93L is going too be one of the most strongets hurricane of the seasone by far
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Me tinks my Miracle Ear just shorted out.
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Texas farmers and ranchers fear record loss

"Livestock pastures on many Houston-area farms are turning to dirt, some covered in 1-inch cracks that would take a tropical storm to fill. At the same time, an auction house west of Houston reports an ever-increasing stampede of cattle being sold. Ranchers say they do not have the food and water to keep them alive.

Yellowing, burned-out fields of corn, meanwhile, are so stunted that sometimes they don't even produce a single ear.

Texas farmers and ranchers report their livestock and
crop prospects in most every sector are withering under the relentless heat and drought as experts fear the state's $100 billion agriculture market is poised to face an all-time record loss.

Travis Miller, who heads the state's agriculture extension service in College Station, predicts that this year the state will more than double its worst recorded loss of $4.1 billion in 2006.

"The 2006 drought hit only the bottom third of our state, but this one is more extreme and striking 90 percent of the state," he explained.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday released its first snapshot of the anticipated crop harvests for 2011.

It paints a bleak picture for Texas: cotton production (Texas' No. 1 cash crop) is expected to plummet by 43 percent compared with last year; corn is expected to drop by 41 percent; winter wheat fell by 60 percent; sorghum (feed grain) is down by 46 percent; soybeans (a smaller Texas crop) dropped 61 percent; rice (the only bright spot because it's irrigated) still declines by 4 percent.

Waller County's extension agent J. Cody Dennison said the situation worsens the longer this scorching weather pattern continues. It already has produced one of the hottest summers and the driest 12-month period ever recorded in the state.

"I've noticed in the last two weeks that the desperation level is increasing from the number of calls I'm receiving from worried ranchers and farmers," said Dennison. "It's so bad that deer are coming into peoples' sprinkled yards to find food and water to keep alive."

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples said the state's dire situation will only continue mounting as water resources are depleted.

Much of the corn fields, the Houston area's biggest cash crop, have either been abandoned or are having low yields, said Miller.

Michael Watz, a farmer in El Campo, said he was forced to plow under 800 to 1,000 acres of corn that looked good in February but never matured.

"It was the worst crop I ever had," he moaned. "Some stalks grew only 3 feet tall instead of the normal nine. And they never produced an ear or even a tassel."
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Closely watching 98-E, could become a TD and eventually could become a TS but where?, before or after crossing 140 longitude line?, so would it be Fernanda or Pewa?

Anyone interested in answering???
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Quoting USCGLT:


PAT,
Got the 20KW genny all fueled up in Vancleave, so if need be you got a place to go and watch the game...but we are a "Packers" household LOL

"Go Pack"



I'd love to be there ,,the Holy Grail.

Jim Taylor was a Saint..as well as Doug Atkins.

..but 67' was a Long,long,time ago.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Pat, those models bending NW at the end of those runs?


Follow the trends,,they closely clustered from the Stats to the Dynam and the Intensity.

93L has the Floor.

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93L will need to gain latitude if it even wants to make it to the GOM
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664. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36067
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I've noticed that the 'I' storm is usually one of the most intense hurricanes to develop in that season. Take 2004's Ivan, 2008's Ike, and 2010's Igor as examples. Interesting this is, if 93L were to become Harvey, that would lead for the vigorous tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic to take the dreaded 'I'.

*End of stupid and completely noneducational post, LOL*


Think that's just because the I named storm usually develops in the peak of hurricane season.. seems like the worst storm of each season is an I just about.
2000 - Isaac (not retired, but Category 4)
2001 - Iris (retired, Category 4)
2002 - Isidore (retired, Category 3)
2003 - Isabel (retired, Category 5)
2004 - Ivan (retired, Category 5)
2005 - Irene (not retired, Category 2)
2006 - Issac (not retired, Category 1)
2007 - Ingrid (not retired, minimal TS)
2008 - Ike (retired, Category 4)
2009 - Ida (not retired, but made an unusual nearly hurricane landfall in November)
2010 - Igor (retired, borderline Category 4/5)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Dear loud person,

CAPS LOCK

Sincerely,

A person with bleeding ear drums
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Pat, those models bending NW at the end of those runs?
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Miamihurricanes09,
Yep have noticed this as well, but its nothing special about the name, its just the typical time of year that that name is used...
Irene will be in the Mid-End of August which is typically very active, so we will likely see a nice storms out of it...
Ike formed at the beginning of September which is the activist month of the season, so did Ivan...
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Texas? I don't see it...

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651.

LOUD NOISES.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
audreyritalillyLa44:

I just went deaf.
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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



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Link

That's one scary GFS run right there.
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I've noticed that the 'I' storm is usually one of the most intense hurricanes to develop in that season. Take 2004's Ivan, 2008's Ike, and 2010's Igor as examples. Interesting this is, if 93L were to become Harvey, that would lead for the vigorous tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic to take the dreaded 'I'.

*End of stupid and completely noneducational post, LOL*
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Sure looks like Texas just might get that drought relief it needs from 93L and maybe more than Texas might want.........Told ya RitaEvac........


Ahhhh boo, I don't see anything yet, what are you talking about?
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Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Love the avatar. On a side note, when does Mad Men start?


Thanks lol

It seems they delayed it until mid-March 2012.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
The HWRF model OUCH.........Possible Harvey???


A cat.2 hurricane in 5 days.
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Quoting wayfaringstranger:
I know that its still pretty far out there but anyone notice that the GFS and UKMET have a decent size storm affecting the GOM around 8/20-8/21?


Weird, the local met on NBC in Houston showed on August 2nd a storm in the BOC, and that would be almost 18 days out, he was just showing that one model.
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Quoting TampaSpin:




THE NGP is now WOW......Belivers or NOT??


look at whats coming off the african coast..I mentioned this a couple a days ago..been showing that TS coming off Africa..
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I haven't seen the Climate Prediction Center update made today, but it has nino 3.4 at borderline between Neutral and La Nina at -0.5C. La nina comming sooner than what models forecasted?

Link
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Quoting tatoprweather:


Lee.....that's the one that worries me the most.


Last time around Lee got to be a TS for one advisory and was way overshadowed by Katrina.. lets see if Lee this time will want to play ball.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Tatoprweather:
Hurricane Names for 2011;
Arlene(Check)
Bret(Check)
Cindy(Check)
Don(Check, Pathetic, but Check)
Emily(Annoying, Check)
Franklin(Pointless NS, Check)
Gert(Check)
Harvey(Possible from 93L)
Irene (Possible in the next 10 days)
Jose
Katia (hopefully no vengence from Katrina's sister)
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina (Hopefully Rina stays AWAY FROM THE GULF)
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney (No Cat. 5 for you!)



LOL on the last name
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


GFS has the system in the GOM in about 14 days.



Love the avatar. On a side note, when does Mad Men start?
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Martinique reporting west winds.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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