Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Most people should have 2 or 3 evac routes just in case they need to evac.

unfortunatly down here in ornage beach gulf shores area, you are very limited to evac routes..they are working on a road as we speak but it still isn't enough for the booming population in lower bladwin county..
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Quoting ncstorm:


who do you think has done the worst?


South Carolina
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Quoting scott39:
Being middle or low income is no excuse to me in the USA, for not planning and being prepared ahead of time. Its how your are raised and some good ole common horse sense. You dont have to have a closet full of food and supplies. You find good shelter to ride it out and stock up on supplies a little at a time. Go without that Ding Dong Mountain Dew or pack of cigs every now and then, so you can buy a flashlight, batteries, bandaids ect....

+1
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Morning everybody.

Quoting P451:
It would be a good time to reconnect with family in safe regions within a reasonable reach.

That's is what family is for anyways...even if today's American society seems to balk at such an idea as if it's an intrusion.

A tank or two of gas and go hole up with relatives.

Those are plans that a quick phone call can set up right now.

"Hey, if we get a bad hurricane hitting us, can we come stay with you guys for a couple of weeks? We don't have the money for hotels for three weeks."

I mean, if that's considered an imposition, that's ridiculous.

I was about to say, for a lot of people here [The Bahamas] the "evacuation plan" is to move from their house near the sea to a family member's house further inland. There's no way to get 250,000 people off the island in the 3 or fewer days before a hurricane hits, even if people could afford it, and that's true of each of our islands with smaller population to a certain extent. Now, that doesn't mean you go sponge off your family for two weeks; you have to carry your storm supplies including bedding etc, for the time you will be there. But there has to be a way for people to help each other more during storms. It was something I wondered about during Katrina in NOLA. There were some people who couldn't afford to evacuate, yes. But I think some could have left with neighbours, family and didn't. I have a hard time thinking Americans are so disconnected from others around them that there is NO one they can turn to in a storm.

Not that we don't have storm shelters too. People use them, because sometimes ALL your family lives in at risk areas [entirely possible when many island communities are coastal ones with serious vulnerabilities to surge and wave action]. But aren't shelters community-run?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21556
2484. K8eCane
Quoting presslord:
In my never to be humble opinion....Texas has done by far the best job of any state establishing meaningful disaster prep and response protocols....



Im in southeastern NC.....It would just be a dilema ....just keep hoping we get lucky again
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2483. ncstorm
Quoting presslord:
In my never to be humble opinion....Texas has done by far the best job of any state establishing meaningful disaster prep and response protocols....


who do you think has done the worst?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14602
2482. Squid28
Quoting ncstorm:


wasnt that the area where only one house was left standing..


That photo was taken in Gilchrist, but yeah that is the general area
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2481. scott39
Quoting BradentonBrew:


I'm not saying it's right, but if a hurricane hitting your area is say 7% pre-season (idk what the actual number is), you can see why people don't rush out and buy 10 days of food and materials every year. I reckon a majority of middle-class and lower-class folks live paycheck to paycheck and just don't have the disposable income to hoard things they may never use.

As a public safety/emergency mgmt employee, I don't advocate not having these supplies. In the interest of honesty however, I don't have a hurricane supply closet. My family simply has a hurricane deployment plan. An agreement with two other groups in our family, (One in coastal NC, the other in Jacksonville, FL). We have a savings acct, that in the event we are within the cone inside of 3days out of landfall on a significant storm, we are flying out to one of the other two locations. The other two locations do the same if they are in the cone. Myself, I'll be deployed to our emerg ops center, but my family will be long gone, yet taken care of by the agreement we have with the other two groups.

No need to stock up on dry goods and supplies every year. The plywood is in great shape and stored away. With kids in the house, we always have plenty of batteries and other things for the challenges that common storms bring.

I think with the economy the way it's been and the challenges of a middle income, or a low income household, hoarding supplies every-year for something that isn't that great of a chance, is just not feasible. In a perfect world that's probably the best preparation, but for some running to the store last minute is all they can do. It's a mess and it causes lots of problems, but it's all that some are able to do. I guess the biggest thing is just advocating having some type of plan in place. For some that doesn't include any pre-purchasing of supplies and it works for them. For others, it's waiting last minute, trying to find supplies amongst throngs of others then riding out the storm with meager resources. Certainly this leads to a deadly outcome on many occasions.
Being middle or low income is no excuse to me in the USA, for not planning and being prepared ahead of time. Its how your are raised and some good ole common horse sense. You dont have to have a closet full of food and supplies. You find good shelter to ride it out and stock up on supplies a little at a time. Go without that Ding Dong Mountain Dew or pack of cigs every now and then, so you can buy a flashlight, batteries, bandaids ect....
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Quoting presslord:
In my never to be humble opinion....Texas has done by far the best job of any state establishing meaningful disaster prep and response protocols....

Most people should have 2 or 3 evac routes just in case they need to evac.
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1456. PRZEDCASTER 11:55 PM GMT on August 15, 2011 +0
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph.

This is interesting , looks like the same low !! Hey Tim Slav'n :)

------------------------------------------------- -----

Who is Tim Slav'n?
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Quoting debbie31:
It's not that storm prep is for adrenaline junkies, it's for in case we have a storm that is big enough to affect power grids, but not big enough to evacuate. Pantry is stocked, batteries are bought, etc. And even if I don't get to use my supplies for hurricane season, we will eat our vegetables and tuna fish later on.

Unfortunately, at this point, with still recouping from Rita and Ike (many homes are still in need of repair around here), money for evac is tight. But that is why we now have state run emergency shelters in North LA. They are there for people that can't afford to evac.

With the latest runs, looks like we won't even see rain bands from 93L in SWLA. Need rain.


just to be clear: that's not what I said...
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2475. hydrus
Quoting serialteg:


she has a really cool shield shape against dry air

its like nintendo, or star trek

Yes it does...bbl..
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Quoting hydrus:
Use this link...Its awesome..Linkn You can click anywhere on the globe and it zooms in..
Thank you.
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Quoting hydrus:


she has a really cool shield shape against dry air

its like nintendo, or star trek

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2472. WxLogic
93L starting to look better.
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In my never to be humble opinion....Texas has done by far the best job of any state establishing meaningful disaster prep and response protocols....
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It's not that storm prep is for adrenaline junkies, it's for in case we have a storm that is big enough to affect power grids, but not big enough to evacuate. Pantry is stocked, batteries are bought, etc. And even if I don't get to use my supplies for hurricane season, we will eat our vegetables and tuna fish later on.

Unfortunately, at this point, with still recouping from Rita and Ike (many homes are still in need of repair around here), money for evac is tight. But that is why we now have state run emergency shelters in North LA. They are there for people that can't afford to evac.

With the latest runs, looks like we won't even see rain bands from 93L in SWLA. Need rain.
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2469. hydrus
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good morning Aussie..Nice sat pic for sure..
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Quoting K8eCane:



I could leave them all home and have my 11 year old son having a nervous breakdown and telling me how mean i am. But really, we dont have the funds to evacuate even one day


not sure where you are. But here in Tx they have phone #'s to call if you need to leave but can't for whatever reason. Just saying!
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Quoting K8eCane:



I could leave them all home and have my 11 year old son having a nervous breakdown and telling me how mean i am. But really, we dont have the funds to evacuate even one day


not sure where you are. But here in Tx they have phone #'s to call if you need to leave but can't for whatever reason. Just saying!
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Quoting hydrus:



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2465. hydrus
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
These satellite pictures do not seem to be updating for about the past hour.
Use this link...Its awesome..Linkn You can click anywhere on the globe and it zooms in..
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Quoting zoomiami:


Hey Press:

But isn't that one of those mandatory evacuation zones? I mean if you live where the water is only a few hundred feet in front and back, you know that there is going to be an issue.

Barrier islands such as the Florida Keys really have no choice but to evacuate, as there is not enough sustainable buildings for shelters, and its very easy to overwash the area.




Exactly! That's why I'm so adamant that there are no easy answers...these events are utterly unique...and multi dimensional...
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2463. angiest
Quoting ncstorm:


wasnt that the area where only one house was left standing..


Even on Bolivar, if you were in the third or fourth row back from the beach, you probably had a home standing. It may have needed to be gutted, but it was standing.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting zoomiami:


Morning folks!

The evacuation issue truly depends on where you live. Even if a cat 4 was coming towards the Metro Dade area, there would never be enough time to move all the people out. That's why we now have other options.

If you can secure your home, and you don't live in a mandatory evacuation zone, you are better off here to stay.

The buying frenzy may seem silly -- but a lot of times its just getting the things you would have bought in the next 3-5 days, and now you won't have the opportunity.



fair enough
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Quoting hydrus:
These satellite pictures do not seem to be updating for about the past hour.
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Quoting weathers4me:
The Tampa Bay area would be complete chaos if the big one came our way. People here have grown so complacent due to the near misses etc. It is human nature to stay until the last minute. Unfortunately there is nothing we can do about that. Fact is, a lot of people will be stranded in traffic.

I would hate to be in a car stuck in traffic with a hurricane around me. I wouldn't be safety in number, more like death in numbers.
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Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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2458. angiest
Quoting ncstorm:


wow, Pregnant women and intense hurricanes never make a great combination..


No kidding. My wife was 6 months pregnant during the Rita evacuation. With no easy access to restroom facilities.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2457. hydrus
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2454. ncstorm
Quoting presslord:


I respectfully (and I mean that) disagree....all the preparation in the world wouldn't have meant anything to those on the Bolivar Penninsula after Ike...it's great as a general rule...but there are a lot of variables which can make it a gamble...


wasnt that the area where only one house was left standing..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14602
Quoting presslord:


I respectfully (and I mean that) disagree....all the preparation in the world wouldn't have meant anything to those on the Bolivar Penninsula after Ike...it's great as a general rule...but there are a lot of variables which can make it a gamble...


Hey Press:

But isn't that one of those mandatory evacuation zones? I mean if you live where the water is only a few hundred feet in front and back, you know that there is going to be an issue.

Barrier islands such as the Florida Keys really have no choice but to evacuate, as there is not enough sustainable buildings for shelters, and its very easy to overwash the area.
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Friday 26th August 2011
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Quoting Grothar:


Even though I live on the water, I no longer evacuate. I just sit there and scream until it is over.

Of serious interest, In South Florida they have revised the levels of evacuation the past few years. Of course the Beach areas are always mandatory evacuation areas, and anyone living in mobile homes, even inland. But a few years ago, anyone living on the Intracoastal had to evacuate in any storm, now they have grids by Category. Of course, in a Cat 4 or 5, I wouldn't even want to be in the state.
I know during Katrina and Ivan when the local sherrif cam through the neighborhood for the mandated evac. I had to sign a waiver giving them my vital info and next of kin info before I was alowed to stay. Now that is in Alabama so I don't know how the laws are elsewhere.
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Quoting presslord:


mass evacution is an evolving art....but it's getting better....my view is: if one believes it's in their best interests to leave...then leave


Morning folks!

The evacuation issue truly depends on where you live. Even if a cat 4 was coming towards the Metro Dade area, there would never be enough time to move all the people out. That's why we now have other options.

If you can secure your home, and you don't live in a mandatory evacuation zone, you are better off here to stay.

The buying frenzy may seem silly -- but a lot of times its just getting the things you would have bought in the next 3-5 days, and now you won't have the opportunity.

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the reason why the models are coming to a consensus is because the system in the eatl is stronger than the previous ones and that it is the first time in 2011 that an invest has been buried in so much moisture
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The Tampa Bay area would be complete chaos if the big one came our way. People here have grown so complacent due to the near misses etc. It is human nature to stay until the last minute. Unfortunately there is nothing we can do about that. Fact is, a lot of people will be stranded in traffic.
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2446. SLU
599

WHXX01 KWBC 161307

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1307 UTC TUE AUG 16 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110816 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110816 1200 110817 0000 110817 1200 110818 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.8N 65.4W 14.6N 69.2W 15.3N 73.2W 16.2N 76.7W

BAMD 13.8N 65.4W 14.4N 68.6W 15.0N 71.5W 15.6N 74.4W

BAMM 13.8N 65.4W 14.3N 68.8W 14.8N 72.2W 15.4N 75.4W

LBAR 13.8N 65.4W 14.5N 69.1W 15.3N 72.7W 16.0N 76.1W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 40KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 40KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110818 1200 110819 1200 110820 1200 110821 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.3N 79.9W 16.2N 85.2W 15.8N 89.5W 15.7N 93.7W

BAMD 16.2N 77.0W 17.1N 81.8W 17.8N 86.0W 18.3N 90.6W

BAMM 15.8N 78.2W 16.2N 83.3W 16.4N 87.9W 16.3N 92.8W

LBAR 16.9N 79.2W 18.7N 84.1W 20.8N 87.8W 23.1N 92.0W

SHIP 50KTS 71KTS 86KTS 96KTS

DSHP 50KTS 71KTS 86KTS 34KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 65.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 61.3W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 57.3W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I agree, and thanks for helping make my point. I know its exciting to see 957 on a model run but it seems to get everyone too excited when the reality is air must still be sinking in the Atlantic because everything is having difficulty developing past very small, weak TS.

And I will change my word from Never to almost never.. How is that?


Better ;)
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Quoting LADobeLady:


Yes, the easy answer is to prepare well before storms. I can fully sustain me and my family for months, without help from anyone. I learned these lessons well from Katrina/Rita/Ike and Gustav. People forget personal responsibility. I live on the gulf, I know I must be prepared for storms, that's why I do it all the time. If you purchase a little at a time it is not a big expense over the long term.


I respectfully (and I mean that) disagree....all the preparation in the world wouldn't have meant anything to those on the Bolivar Penninsula after Ike...it's great as a general rule...but there are a lot of variables which can make it a gamble...
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Quoting FLdewey:
Given the current economic climate... I think the number of people evacuating will be at an all time low no matter where a storm impacts.

A lot of families don't have the cash to pick up and leave for a week.

FWIW, a South Florida strike poses certain problems that don't exist in other places: bottlenecks caused by having very limited evacuation options.

For instance, if a hurricane threatens, say, New Orleans, people can go east or west on I-10, or north on I-49, I-55, or I-59. And similar options exist in most other places.

However, if a hurricane is headed towards Miami, people don't have much choice in direction. A trip south to the Keys is out of the question. Likewise, a westerly trip toward Naples would likely just leave one in the path anyway. That means, then, that the entire area needs to be funneled up either I-95 or the Florida Turnpike. And that's a very bad thing.

If you ever watched the movie Deep Impact, you may recall the scene where thousands of cars are jammed to a stop as people are attempting to flee a meteorite-caused tsunami.

The day before Andrew struck just south of Miami, that's how both the interstate and the turnpike looked. Bumper to bumper to bumper for 200 miles as people sought shelter (that was likely no longer available by the time they arrived).

Someone said earlier that mass evacuation plans are a mess, and I believe them. I seriously doubt that things will go more smoothly the next time a crowded metropolitan area needs to flee in a hurry than they did for Katrina or Andrew or Rita. The key: don't wait until the last hours, or even the last day; if it looks like you're going to be hit by a big one and you do plan to leave, be the first to secure your place and your belongings, and go. Just go.
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2442. ncstorm
Quoting K8eCane:



Yes we got stuck in Dunn and I was 8 months pregnant. I had to call the local hospital to see if they could take me if I had labor. We were stranded there for a week. We would have been better off to stay home in that instance


wow, Pregnant women and intense hurricanes never make a great combination..
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2441. hydrus
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Back later........Enjoy your morning folks.
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2439. Jax82
The simple fact that the models are showing major hurricanes out there, no matter where they are ending up at 240 hours, tells us that the potential is out there for a CONUS hit, and that we are entering the peak of the season. Strap on your seats belts!
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Quoting Cotillion:


Never is a strong word in meteorology. I mean, we've seen it literally raining frogs more than once.

The models are a tool, nothing more. They've not been fantastic this year, true. However, I think some put too much faith in models and expect too much of what they will tell you. In fact, that goes for a lot of things, ADT's a pretty good example. Prior to any form of cyclogenesis, the only thing people need to look out for is the consecutive and well backed hint something may form in a general area and a general timeframe.

If it does better than that, great.

Now once something has performed, you can ask the models to do better. Track, for example, which models do quite well with. Intensity is a crapshoot which is still not well understood (I mean, people keep posting these TCHP maps, but the last few storms that have gone under RI have all been in the middle of the Atlantic. No masses of TCHP there.) by meteorologists, let alone models. If humans don't understand, how can they program the algorithm for the model to do it?


I agree, and thanks for helping make my point. I know its exciting to see 957 on a model run but it seems to get everyone too excited when the reality is air must still be sinking in the Atlantic because everything is having difficulty developing past very small, weak TS.

And I will change my word from Never to almost never.. How is that?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.