Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting yonzabam:


And a one day record of 7.8 inches of rain in New York city, yesterday! Hope this isn't global warming.


That just is no9t fair at all! We can't get a drop of the wet stuff and they have almost 8 inches of it... SHARE THE WEALTH NYC!! LOL
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Quoting Patrap:
# 681,,if you can,,delete to One Line,,the Page is skewed really bad in IE.


Don't know how, my comment got inside the quoting and could not delete it until a couple of tries.... ??
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Quoting IKE:
Holy Toledo!


Could easily miss Texas to South or East
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18z Intensity

Take it with a grain of salt


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Not much in Convergence YET......with 93L but, look EAST off Africa........NICE!

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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


In this view,it appears that Gert has a feederband like tap into 93L and the convection by Cuba/Jamaica,and tugging them both. What is causing this? Normal Circulation of Gert or? Seems a bit odd, esp to the convection by Cuba.
What's left of 92L maybe?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting TampaSpin:
Sure looks like Texas just might get that drought relief it needs from 93L and maybe more than Texas might want.........Told ya RitaEvac........
Too early to tell and please no teasing. LOL
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:
I thought I would never see myself wishing for a good size tropical storm or weak hurricane here in the Houston area but we need rain so bad! Lakes, streams and rivers are drying up, water restrictions all over the place, power grid maxed out... We need some relief!



And a one day record of 7.8 inches of rain in New York city, yesterday! Hope this isn't global warming.
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728. DDR
I'm Looking forward to 4-5 inches by this time next Monday @ my location not including any feeder bands or impact from our future storm.
The weather here is too normal if you ask me.
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Check out the current Shear overall in the Caribbean.........WOW! Dropped to near nothing.
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League City, Texas City, and Galveston TX are all in Stage 5 water restriction. That means no watering outside and landscapes period. All newly planted trees in Galveston after Ike will be left to die again in the Heat and historic drought in TX history....
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Ok SAL, do your thing.... No big ACE values this year...

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Quoting RitaEvac:
93L will need to gain latitude if it even wants to make it to the GOM
Ignore the intensity and this looks to have a similar track through this location (maybe a tad to the north):


Looks like there was some strong ridging in place at that time.  Any slightly northward component, over that stretch of water, could have a significant impact on final landfall of what, if anything, develops from 93L.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
From the euler site:

NOTICE to all users:

This web site will cease to exist on 30 August 2011!


I am pleased to announce the release of Phase I of the Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project (TCGP), a new site at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This new site provides the same clear, simple presentation of the model guidance, but with a drastically improved user interface which includes a clickable overview map of current, active systems. From this map, you can select an individual page that links to all the relevant plots for that storm, as well as a variety of new information. This new site will eventually expand to cover the global TC basins and include structure information in addition to just track and intensity.

To go straight to the real-time guidance, click here: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/curren t/

The old site (the one you are currently visiting) will be shut down on 30 August 2011. Please update your bookmarks to the new site. Webmasters, there are several entry URLs for the new site, but only one is meant to be a permalink. Thus, please use the following: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/

Bloggers will be interested to hear that the TCGP site does not feature the same prohibitions on hot linking that the old site had. All plots for numbered systems (depressions or higher) will have a permanent URL that blogs may freely link to. Please be aware that all content on the new site falls under the UCAR Terms of Use. In general commercial use is prohibited.
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

its a little disorganized right now


Certainly disorganised, but the fact that it is firing so much convection even when it is entering the eastern Caribbean is impressive.
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Quoting IKE:





Hurricane Katrina part 2
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BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Euro in line with my ideas, more threat to fla in about 10 days, not gulf

This is what bastardi said on twitter about an hour ago. Sees what the models are developing as threat to florida
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717. DDR
Good afternoon all
1.3 inches in Trinidad from invest 93L
Good thing its a good distance from us,or else...
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From Allan Huffman

Elsewhere

There is a very nice looking tropical wave off of Africa today. The global models all track this feature westward this week with the ECMWF and GFS showing development. The latest run of the 12z GFS takes the storm into the Caribbean, Gulf, and into New Orleans. The 00z ECMWF had the system further north moving to around 22N/62W in 10 days.

This is of course meaningless this far out. The pattern appears to be heading towards a ridge in the west and a mean trough near the Mississippi River Valley as we head into late August. At the same time a western Atlantic Ridge (Bermuda High) may be stronger than normal and stretch west towards the east coast. If this is the pattern that develops, this will strongly favor systems that stay far enough south threatening the southeast coast, Florida, and the eastern Gulf. So this is a dangerous jet stream pattern, if realized, we are heading into for the heart of the hurricane season.

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713. IKE

Quoting Grothar:


I don't think that is Toledo. It looks more like the Caribbean.
Ah...okay....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhJIDETEVIQ
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I thought I would never see myself wishing for a good size tropical storm or weak hurricane here in the Houston area but we need rain so bad! Lakes, streams and rivers are drying up, water restrictions all over the place, power grid maxed out... We need some relief!

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In this view,it appears that Gert has a feederband like tap into 93L and the convection by Cuba/Jamaica,and tugging them both. What is causing this? Normal Circulation of Gert or? Seems a bit odd, esp to the convection by Cuba.
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Quoting Patrap:
The price of Fresca's by the case went up 2% in the last Hour....
LOL!
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TS.Gert's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 14August_0pmGMT and ending 15August_6pmGMT

The 4 short line-segments represent TS.Gert's path and
the longest line-segment is its straightline projection.

TropicalStormGert's travel-speed was 13mph(20.9k/h) on a heading of 13.0degrees(NE)
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Gert was headed toward passage over DoctorsHarbor,Newfoundland ~3days9hours from now

Copy&paste 28.6n63.1w-29.6n63.2w, 29.6n63.2w-30.6n63.4w, 30.6n63.4w-31.5n63.3w, 31.5n63.3w-32.6n63.0w, bda, mqc, 31.5n63.3w-47.65n57.82w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 15August_12pmGMT)
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Quoting IKE:
Holy Toledo!




I don't think that is Toledo. It looks more like the Caribbean.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting IKE:
Holy Toledo!




Ike! Long time no talk.
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don't like that!!!
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Quoting Grothar:
img src="">


Well that's Gro's Gif... Excellent animation including SAL
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# 681,,if you can,,delete to One Line,,the Page is skewed really bad in IE.
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12z HWRF develops the African wave.


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701. IKE

Quoting IKE:


That should take care of lowering gas prices.
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Good thing; I think we may have a low impact year for U.S. landfalling hurricanes. The storms are being steered off shore or way to the south.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

Just click on the 12z GFS on the right hand corner of the website.


Thank you sir!
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Quite a come back for 93L (VORT wise):

850MB:




700MB:




500MB:



Given the above I would go with 30% by 8PM and 50% by 2AM in the assumption that convection increases enough to maintain the level of VORT going/increasing.
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696. IKE

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Fast forward to 360 hours. Crazy stuff being shown by the GFS.

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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Hey Miami do you have the link to the GFS that shows 360 hrs out?
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

Just click on the 12z GFS on the right hand corner of the website.
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Looks like it should be a TX rain soaker

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Fast forward to 360 hours. Crazy stuff being shown by the GFS.


Hey Miami do you have the link to the GFS that shows 360 hrs out?
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HWRF

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Quoting IKE:
Holy Toledo!


Fast forward to 360 hours. Crazy stuff being shown by the GFS.
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Wow vorticity of 93L is stacked nice now. If it survives that shear and dry air ahead of it, I think we are going to have a strong one with such a high TCHP in the Caribbean.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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