Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Don't mean to laugh.... but about 1/3 of the blog has been saying "93L will come back... right about now"; another third has been saying "RIP; it's done; stick a fork in it"; and the rest of the blog has been watching the verbal ping pong.... lol Given the nature of this blog, there's almost always going to be somebody who was right each time we make a call.... lol Just how many different opinions we get on here... lol



Didn't you just finish saying, "The GFS changes from run to run in a well-established pattern until a storm forms?" LOL.... in that very same post???? lol

[shakes head] can't get no respect.... lol

I would like to say.... it would be nice to have one week in August and September when we are not personality bashing.... as I said yesterday, the season will tell who's right and who's wrong. FWIW, nothing reed has said so far is off track from what we've seen so far for the season, and other bloggers have been saying something similar, to wit: high/trough set up seems more likely to favor an East coast US hit than last year. He hasn't said one will hit. He hasn't endorsed any particular model's particular run 368 days out. So instead of wasting blog space browbeating and bringing up past history, let the season speak for itself.

SAME goes for cloudburst, etc, etc, who you may not agree with / like. Let's hear the met arguments and leave the ad hominem attacks alone, pple...

And I was enjoying myself so much up to that point... [shakes head sorrowfully]
Amen
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
well they could go draw water from a freshwater lake(s), and I thought most rainwater comes from saltwater due to the evaporation process.


The lakes here in TX are all drying up... not enough water in them to drop anywhere. Plus, most of TX is more than 20 inches under where we need to be for rain this year.
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If you look at Visible, it sure has the appearance of a LLC trying to form with 93L at 48.8N 59.8W....JUST WHAT I see! If that would be the position we might be about 24hrs from a Depression forming! The DEAD ZONE is coming tho.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
well they could go draw water from a freshwater lake(s), and I thought most rainwater comes from saltwater due to the evaporation process.


GT, unfortunately we ran out of "lakes" a couple months back we now refer to them as puddles, or ponds at best
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NWS Houston early this morning:

DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S WELCOME RAINS FOR SOME OF THE AREA...MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR US THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS TEXAS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY...AND SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN
THIS ENTIRE MONTH. THIS HEAT AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS RESULTS
IN KEEPING A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA...NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A FORECAST
INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALL WEEK...WILL
LIKELY END UP EXTENDING THE ADVISORY AGAIN. THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER INLAND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. SHOULD
SEE THE
RIDGE EDGE WESTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...
THE AREA COULD SEE A SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. EXTENDED MODELS DO NOT INDICATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE THAT WOULD BRING US ANY BENEFICIAL
RAINS AND A MUCH NEEDED DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THE DROUGHT AND THE
RECORD BREAKING SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES. 42

Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting AegirsGal:
LOL, I like the idea, but suffice it to say that there are far too many ways that the idea itself can be twisted into a political war. Also, salt water does not help freshwater vegetation.
well they could go draw water from a freshwater lake(s), and I thought most rainwater comes from saltwater due to the evaporation process.
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Atlantic Tropical Cyclone activity in current and past years as of 8/15/11:

2000:

* Alberto
* Beryl

2001:

* Allison
* Barry
* Chantal

2002:

* Arthur
* Bertha
* Cristobal

2003:

* Ana
* Bill
* Claudette
* Danny
* Erika

2004:

* Alex
* Bonnie
* Charley
* Danielle
* Earl

2005:

* Arlene
* Bret
* Cindy
* Dennis
* Emily
* Franklin
* Gert
* Harvey
* Irene

2006:

* Alberto
* Unnamed
* Beryl
* Chris

2007:

* Andrea
* Barry
* Chantal
* Dean
* Erin

2008:

* Arthur
* Bertha
* Cristobal
* Dolly
* Edouard
* Fay (formed 8/15/08)

2009:

* Ana
* Bill (formed 8/15/09)

2010:

* Alex
* Bonnie
* Colin

2011:

* Arlene
* Bret
* Cindy
* Don
* Emily
* Franklin
* Gert

2011 is the second most active so far this season in the past ten years, with 2005 being slightly ahead.
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

Link
read that.
Thanks!
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Quoting KimSETX:

The trees are like that all over SE Texas. The drive from College Station to Houston is alarming with all the dead trees. I pass a city park every morning. Of the 25 trees, 10 are dead and another 5 dying. Fear of falling trees hitting power lines and those lines sparking fires.


I am in Houston and it is so sad to see all of the trees and vegitaiton dead and dying. My yard looks like the dust bowl! Downtown, Memorial Park I believe, they have had to cut down many of the old oaks that surrounded the park because they were burned up.. it is a mess down here in TX and we need some relief fast. A Nice Tropical storm hanging out for a few days over us would be a great gift! COME ON 93L!! All of Texas' hopes are on you!!
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http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/goessst2.shtml


The gulf just dares a system to enter it.....
And the first well-established system to take the bait... BOOM
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Texas a vary Big State,,the Sqaure miles alone and the Water needed,,

..well,Lake Michigan comes to mind,,drained.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Quoting caneswatch:
JMO, but here's how I think it goes down in the next 7 days:

93L: Will run into Mexico as a Cat. 1 Hurricane.

Wave that has exited Africa: Will become Irene, rise up to a major hurricane (Cat. 4), and will be targeting the Bahamas/Florida.


I told you never to post anything until you read my blog first. :)
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Quoting AegirsGal:
That would be fantastic, and I hope that you are correct. I do have a question, though. What are you looking at in terms of conditions that are giving us this possibility?

Link
read that.
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 891



Convergence has now arrived..........HUM! Taking shape!
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I was wondering if they could send helicopters that carry water to put out fires into the gulf to collect water and dump it over drought striken areas of Texas, I'm sure the gov't can call on firefighters nationwide too help with the efforts.
LOL, I like the idea, but suffice it to say that there are far too many ways that the idea itself can be twisted into a political war. Also, salt water does not help freshwater vegetation.
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Looks like Texas and NYC need to trade hot sauce for rain!
NEW YORK CITY!!!!!!!
Can't we get a low over the south to pull some of the rain over to Texas?

Dumping Gulf salt water on the fires could cause lots of other damage and dead areas that don't grow back.
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Im watching Squidbillies on Adult Swim.

Man thats some Phunny Stuff..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Quoting Squid28:


Being on the coast, I am afraid to see what even a moderate TS would bring to our area now. The trees in this area were hammered by saltwater intrusion during Ike, had really not recovered and are now dying at an alarming rate from the drought. Add to that the fact that the overall economy stinks and a lot of folks are not cutting down the dead trees, needless to say it would be treemagedon if we had a good blow around here....

The trees are like that all over SE Texas. The drive from College Station to Houston is alarming with all the dead trees. I pass a city park every morning. Of the 25 trees, 10 are dead and another 5 dying. Fear of falling trees hitting power lines and those lines sparking fires.
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Levi just watched your Saturday video and you nailed 93L's comeback!!! Do you still think if 93L develops it will be a GOMEX storm?
Don't mean to laugh.... but about 1/3 of the blog has been saying "93L will come back... right about now"; another third has been saying "RIP; it's done; stick a fork in it"; and the rest of the blog has been watching the verbal ping pong.... lol Given the nature of this blog, there's almost always going to be somebody who was right each time we make a call.... lol Just how many different opinions we get on here... lol

Quoting reedzone:


You possibly can't take a darn joke dude.. Im not believing the GFS run.. Though I do believe the pattern will be changing over the next 2 weeks that could be more of a threat to the USA IF a storm forms.
Didn't you just finish saying, "The GFS changes from run to run in a well-established pattern until a storm forms?" LOL.... in that very same post???? lol

Quoting cloudburst2011:


i have no clue what you are talking about i have been posting here since 2004 ..reed is the NEW KID on the block sir..
[shakes head] can't get no respect.... lol

I would like to say.... it would be nice to have one week in August and September when we are not personality bashing.... as I said yesterday, the season will tell who's right and who's wrong. FWIW, nothing reed has said so far is off track from what we've seen so far for the season, and other bloggers have been saying something similar, to wit: high/trough set up seems more likely to favor an East coast US hit than last year. He hasn't said one will hit. He hasn't endorsed any particular model's particular run 368 days out. So instead of wasting blog space browbeating and bringing up past history, let the season speak for itself.

SAME goes for cloudburst, etc, etc, who you may not agree with / like. Let's hear the met arguments and leave the ad hominem attacks alone, pple...

And I was enjoying myself so much up to that point... [shakes head sorrowfully]

EDIT: I know this is after the fact, but had internet issues before I could post this at the time it was fresh on the board...
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Quoting 12george1:

No, if 93L develops, it would become Tropical Storm Harvey, not Irene.


I was talking about the wave that exited Africa.
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I was wondering if they could send helicopters that carry water to put out fires into the gulf to collect water and dump it over drought striken areas of Texas, I'm sure the gov't can call on firefighters nationwide too help with the efforts.
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Im mo a Kit-Kat kinda Guy,,I like to spread the wealth round with Equal Shares,..


: )

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
93L's 850 vort has made a big jump form this morn from nothing to
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Who knows what will happen with the future invest near Africa? Really, I dont know, and nobody else knows.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
93L this is your delivery location


Port of Houston, Houston, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
103.2 F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 75 F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Pressure: 29.83 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 118 F


Rita, you better be careful....

If it does come here as a nice soaker (and nothing more) we may worship you as some sort of pseudo god. If it comes here as anything more, we have been known to sacrifice a person or two if it becomes well err, necessary....
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
im not sure about south tx but here in dfw theres a chance a large complex of rain will develop and move through from the nw tonight/tomorrow morning...
That would be fantastic, and I hope that you are correct. I do have a question, though. What are you looking at in terms of conditions that are giving us this possibility?
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JMO, but here's how I think it goes down in the next 7 days:

93L: Will become a Central America threat.

Wave that has exited Africa: Could become an east coast threat if it sustains itself.
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Well it appears we have TD6E though it will likely bust EPAC's record of having all hurricanes...
Thinking 6-5-3...

also 99E is something to watch in the EPAC as well, though Fernanda is likely not going to be a hurricane...
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Port of Houston, Houston, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
103.2 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Pressure: 29.83 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 118 °F


The weatherbell "Atmospheric Avenger" say's da Cooling should start tommorow..

ahem,,...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
776 Patrap "I get a case a month with the Cheque"

I'm impressed. I thought only rock-stars and divas had those kinda clauses -- "a case of bourbon and a bowl of M&M's with the red ones removed..." -- in their contracts.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Who knows wahat will happen with infest 93 for the near future? I don know
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Jrweatherman,
Good predictions, though i have to slightly disagree with you here...
Gert is nearing her peak and will likely not hit hurricane status.
93L MIGHT become a hurricane though it wont be known until we see it pass 70W to 75W
And we still dont know how the wave leaving africa is gonna do, it still needs another day before we know if it can sustain itself, and even then you probably wont see development until it gets closer to the islands, still way too much uncertainty with these two systems(93L & pre97L)
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93L this is your delivery location


Port of Houston, Houston, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
103.2 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Pressure: 29.83 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 118 °F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


Anyone notice that the LBAR's thing to do is throw a sharp left hand turn in every model run at 84 hours?

Obviously corrupt data, or incorrect rendering of the data for the model, but still... whatever is wrong with it no one has noticed this and fixed the problem?

Either fix the problem or truncate the output at 84 hours. It's not difficult.



The LBAR model is an extremely poor model, I'm not sure how old it is, or its capability, but I would imagine its probably outdated and useless compared to the dynamic models. Ive never seen the LBAR do anything right.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
EPAC:

invest_RENUMBER_ep982011_ep062011.ren

Oh boy
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Check 93L Vorticity and other here
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
EPAC:

invest_RENUMBER_ep982011_ep062011.ren
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im not sure about south tx but here in dfw theres a chance a large complex of rain will develop and move through from the nw tonight/tomorrow morning...
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 891
Quoting caneswatch:


Since that's what would be Irene....... Irony at it's best.


No, if 93L develops, it would become Tropical Storm Harvey, not Irene.
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799. P451
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I here Cancun is lovely this time of year.



Anyone notice that the LBAR's thing to do is throw a sharp left hand turn in every model run at 84 hours?

Obviously corrupt data, or incorrect rendering of the data for the model, but still... whatever is wrong with it no one has noticed this and fixed the problem?

Either fix the problem or truncate the output at 84 hours. It's not difficult.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Gonna catch some sleep.



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Quoting angiest:

Rainfall rate will be very important, in any kind of storm, be it a tropical cyclone or not.  I have already seen some heavy rains wasted because it came too fast and ran off the dry ground.


Well then maybe Texas needs a large winter type system first, a large area of steady, light rain.

Tropical systems just bring on and off bursts of torrential rain. My rain gauge would measure rain rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour in the weakest tropical cyclone bands. The strong cores can easily put of 4 to 6 inch an hour rates.
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I will agree that 93L looks good right now. It has stacked vorticity that has consolidated today, it has deep convection, and good outflow on all quadrants of the AOI. I agree it probably needs to be at 30% right now, since the National Hurricane Center goes off conditions and current look. However, when it enters the Caribbean, a lot of air will be drawn into an surrounding landmasses, which is part of the reason Don and Emily struggled into this area. Plus, as I said before, the Eastern Caribbean is a dead zone, and only a handful-two handfuls of storms have developed in this area.

The chances of development for 93L before the western Caribbean are not good at this time.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


More wood to smoke


I started to throw in, at least it will come down preseasoned this time, none of that pesky waiting to use it in the ole bbq pit.....
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Here is the Clips Model!!!!
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Gert
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Treemagedon, end up with a treeless landscape, maybe nature is trying to set us up as a desert...
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Here is what I think
93L will become a Cat.1 and hit Cancun, then turn as a Cat.3 and hit LA.

Gert will become a 75mph hurricane tonight then dissipate quick tommorow night.

The wave in africa will eventually become Irene and recurve as a Cat.4.
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Quoting Patrap:


Thats a very good point and obs.
Rainfall rate will be very important, in any kind of storm, be it a tropical cyclone or not.  I have already seen some heavy rains wasted because it came too fast and ran off the dry ground.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
93L is in the Tube 5 X 5



Larger Image
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Ok, a little confused here..... Is this what they believe 93L will do?? I know it is far out but just wondering... might have to go buy some batteries :o)


Despite comments about how impressive 93L appears, it looks pretty feeble to me. The actual area of vorticity is small. The area of convection on the westward side makes it look bigger than it is and isn't part of the circulation, and it's going to run into dry air soon. Looks like another Don, if it even gets to that stage..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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