Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting usa777:


It aint gonna happen.. pray for a tropical storm or a big change in the pattern.


The latter will probably happen later this month.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30253

latest floater image on invest 93l as of 445 et
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 753
Quoting RitaEvac:


Rick Perry has been praying, nuttin


LOL!!!! I remember Perry telling all Texan's to Pray Easter Weekend for rain.... Still waiting for the results of that...LOL
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1073
884. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
RMSC Miami National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP062011
2:00 PM PDT August 15 2011
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1007 hPa) located at 12.0N 132.3W or 1414 NM east southeast of South Point, Hawaii has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 12.0N 134.7W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
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Quoting angiest:

Doing the Gert Skirt Boogie.


Sneaky NHC forecasters they are...
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Are we outta Fresca's again..?

..and have you seen the GFS 14 day solution too?



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011

...GERT SKIRTS BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 62.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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Quoting usa777:


It aint gonna happen.. pray for a tropical storm or a big change in the pattern.


Rick Perry has been praying, nuttin
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Quoting islander101010:
93 still has a chance to develop a low level circulation before the dead zone

I think 93L already has a LLC but not closed
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Quoting WaterWitch11:

Does the coat buckle in the back?


Indeed Madame, it does..thats why you never see me Blog past Midnight CDT.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
Quoting USAFwxguy:


weakness seen over the Eastern Gulf in that image.


Indeed... tried to close OFF but the lingering TROF won't be easy to move.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
yeah, but not all Texas is in that drought. And I think people in Texas would be glad for any kind of water they get, rainwater, oceanwater, lakewater, etc...


It aint gonna happen.. pray for a tropical storm or a big change in the pattern.
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Quoting Grothar:


I told you never to post anything until you read my blog first. :)


Hehe :)
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Quoting Patrap:
US Drought Monitor, SOUTH


Sitting in D4 here...ugh!
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1073

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011

...GERT SKIRTS BERMUDA...



Doing the Gert Skirt Boogie.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting Patrap:


The Guy with the White coat and pencil/pen Holder.

Does the coat buckle in the back?
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TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011

RADAR DATA FROM BERMUDA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE GERT HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN APPEARANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE LAST
RECON FLIGHT LEG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT PRODUCED AN 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 49 KT AT THE
SURFACE. GIVEN THE APPARENT STEADY NATURE OF THE CYCLONE...THE
INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM
SAB...RESPECTIVELY . UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL
QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST RATIONALE. GERT HAS
MOVED NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS NOW MOVING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020/12. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS GERT COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE
DEEP-LAYERED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE
U.S. EAST COAST. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AFTER 12 HOURS...AND LIES ALONG THE EXTREME
RIGHT SIDE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR GERT TO INTENSIFY IS GRADUALLY COMING
TO A CLOSE. THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER AT LEAST 26C SSTS FOR ANOTHER
12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL LOW. ALTHOUGH THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR GERT TO REACH 55 KT...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CYCLONE COULD REACH 60 KT BETWEEN THE 12- AND
24-HOUR FORECAST PERIODS DURING THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM
PERIOD AROUND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. BY 36 HOURS...GERT WILL BE OVER
NEAR-20C SSTS AND UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
POST-TROPICAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND
EXTRATROPICAL INTENSITY FORECASTS PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 33.2N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 35.7N 60.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 38.9N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 41.7N 51.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1800Z 44.6N 45.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30253
93 still has a chance to develop a low level circulation before the dead zone
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Quoting RitaEvac:


er, uh, whatdaya say?

Lest anyone doesn't read the table and just looks at the pretty colours.  Less than one tenth of one percent of the state is experiencing no drought, and over three quarters of the entire state is in D4 Exceptional drought conditions.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
72HR 500MB:

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011
200 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2011

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 132.3W
ABOUT 1630 MI...2620 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 1655 MI...2660 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
----------------------------
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011

...GERT SKIRTS BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 62.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30253
12z GFS Ensemble mean for the system off Africa....amazing signature coming from the ensemble mean.

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well I mean lakes from outside Texas, perhaps the Great Lakes, I'm sure the states wouldn't mind being a good neighbor and sharing some of the wealth.


Its a good thought my man..but only mother Nature can bring to Texas what they need in the amounts needed.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I was wondering if they could send helicopters that carry water to put out fires into the gulf to collect water and dump it over drought striken areas of Texas, I'm sure the gov't can call on firefighters nationwide too help with the efforts.
The GOM is salt water. Good way to kill every growing thing (except weeds) is to throw salt water on them.
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Well I mean lakes from outside Texas, perhaps the Great Lakes, I'm sure the states wouldn't mind being a good neighbor and sharing some of the wealth.
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lol, Be back later....
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Rita 200 is kind of high, let us keep it at under 100 mph.
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US Drought Monitor, SOUTH
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
Link

CAPE starts out high for TX but then it clears out rather quickly.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Time for a nice long break.........YOU all have a nice time FIGHTING! Tired of it! I will try late tonite when its usually very civil....YEPPIE FOR THE NIGHT CREW!


OK, YOU do that!!!!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30253
Quoting Neapolitan:

He's stated more than once that the cooling has already gotten underway in the US--though with record highs outpacing record lows this month by 4,953 to 249 (19.89 to 1) he's not getting many takers.


Shame that "The Toxic Avenger" was already taken.

:)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592
Quoting GTcooliebai:
yeah, but not all Texas is in that drought. And I think people in Texas would be glad for any kind of water they get, rainwater, oceanwater, lakewater, etc...


er, uh, whatdaya say?

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Very good point about the tree, if a strong wind storm comes thru Texas, most trees are history because a huge portion of the trees are dying or dead. May want to take the dead ones down in advance.
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Time for a nice long break.........YOU all have a nice time FIGHTING! Tired of it! I will try late tonite when its usually very civil....YEPPIE FOR THE NIGHT CREW!
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Starting to get a tick, and getting agitated, this heat and drought is taking it's toll....is there a 200mph cane out there yet
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Quoting Patrap:
Texas a vary Big State,,the Sqaure miles alone and the Water needed,,

..well,Lake Michigan comes to mind,,drained.
yeah, but not all Texas is in that drought. And I think people in Texas would be glad for any kind of water they get, rainwater, oceanwater, lakewater, etc...
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18Z NAM 500MB:

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Quoting Patrap:
Port of Houston, Houston, Texas (PWS)
Scattered Clouds
103.2 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Pressure: 29.83 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 118 °F


The weatherbell "Atmospheric Avenger" say's da Cooling should start tommorow..

ahem,,...

He's stated more than once that the cooling has already gotten underway in the US--though with record highs outpacing record lows this month by 4,953 to 249 (19.89 to 1) he's not getting many takers.
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When it rains on TX, it'll rain......and it it'll rain.........until we are caught up, so buckle up for a flood at some point in the future
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125592

Quoting GTcooliebai:
well they could go draw water from a freshwater lake(s), and I thought most rainwater comes from saltwater due to the evaporation process.
Read my blog.  Lake levels are dropping, in some places rapidly.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting aspectre:
776 Patrap "I get a case a month with the Cheque"

I'm impressed. I thought only rock-stars and divas had those kinda clauses -- "a case of bourbon and a bowl of M&M's with the red ones removed..." -- in their contracts.


A welfare check and a case of Fresca ain't all that.
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Quoting Squid28:


Being on the coast, I am afraid to see what even a moderate TS would bring to our area now. The trees in this area were hammered by saltwater intrusion during Ike, had really not recovered and are now dying at an alarming rate from the drought. Add to that the fact that the overall economy stinks and a lot of folks are not cutting down the dead trees, needless to say it would be treemagedon if we had a good blow around here....


I see your point. We go on about how much damage a storm does to the deforested areas of Haiti.

In some cases here, with the dead/dying trees, and the grasses/vegetation gone, flash flooding could be a problem in areas that may not have flooded before.
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Quoting Squid28:


Being on the coast, I am afraid to see what even a moderate TS would bring to our area now. The trees in this area were hammered by saltwater intrusion during Ike, had really not recovered and are now dying at an alarming rate from the drought. Add to that the fact that the overall economy stinks and a lot of folks are not cutting down the dead trees, needless to say it would be treemagedon if we had a good blow around here....


Oh dear! Now we might have to deal with the heavily deforested Texas coast. I'm not sure the blog could handle it.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Don't mean to laugh.... but about 1/3 of the blog has been saying "93L will come back... right about now"; another third has been saying "RIP; it's done; stick a fork in it"; and the rest of the blog has been watching the verbal ping pong.... lol Given the nature of this blog, there's almost always going to be somebody who was right each time we make a call.... lol Just how many different opinions we get on here... lol



Didn't you just finish saying, "The GFS changes from run to run in a well-established pattern until a storm forms?" LOL.... in that very same post???? lol

[shakes head] can't get no respect.... lol

I would like to say.... it would be nice to have one week in August and September when we are not personality bashing.... as I said yesterday, the season will tell who's right and who's wrong. FWIW, nothing reed has said so far is off track from what we've seen so far for the season, and other bloggers have been saying something similar, to wit: high/trough set up seems more likely to favor an East coast US hit than last year. He hasn't said one will hit. He hasn't endorsed any particular model's particular run 368 days out. So instead of wasting blog space browbeating and bringing up past history, let the season speak for itself.

SAME goes for cloudburst, etc, etc, who you may not agree with / like. Let's hear the met arguments and leave the ad hominem attacks alone, pple...

And I was enjoying myself so much up to that point... [shakes head sorrowfully]
Amen
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.