Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Has Bush hit 100 yet today? this would break the 1980 streak of 14 days.
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Gert looks a lot like Marco, if not a little better defined.

Marco:



Gert:

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This is what we have forecast locally thru to the weekend on the upper Texas coast. Should be interesting!


FXUS64 KLCH 151937
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
237 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...
.....
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY. MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY A DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS IN PLACE...WITH RELATIVELY
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME TO THE WEST BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME COOLING ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF A MORE MOIST AIR MASS...THAT WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR AT-LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. WITH
THE MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN.

XXX
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Quoting islander101010:
guess who is has been his biggest contributer? right now oil companies are not very popular how come gas has not gone down more?


Work for a refinery (hires alot of workers at higher paying jobs) and can tell you its the speculators that decide the price of what is pulled out of the pipeline. What you buy now was probably bought a month or two ago at those prices. Gas stations go up and down daily and its not tied to what the refinery cost was when it put into the pipeline. They have their own adjenda (holidays, daily news stories, etc). Refineries are driven by oil prices and the cost to refine. Their products are sold on the going market price. Everyone elso after that adds and adds and adds.
PS Don't you remember being told that praying is politically improper by our Washington bureaucrats? Texans need to remember their independent backbone and stand up and do it anyway. Don't worry about being chastised or made fun of for praying. Do it and flaunt it baby!
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah I saw pics. that angiest posted, would you say this is the worst drought you have ever seen, and are droughts a common thing in Texas, like I know it happens in FL., but you guys seem to get it a lot worst and more frequently than us. Is this just part of the Texas climate.
Droughts are normal, and since the state is so large it is hard to state if this is the worst statewide.  We are edging that way, however.  For Houston, it is now apparently the worst drought in recorded history, having eclipsed the 1917-1918 drought.  In fact, the official climate site for Houston, located at Bush Intercontinental Airport, has gone in excess of 200 days since the last single day 1 inch rain total
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Hmmm?


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
237 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME TO THE WEST BY
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME COOLING
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF A MORE MOIST AIR MASS...THAT WILL
PROBABLY ALLOW FOR AT-LEAST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. WITH
THE MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
332 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2011

12Z
MODELS SHIFT THE CORE OF THE UPPER HIGH TO THE WESTERN STATES NEXT
WEEK. THIS COULD FAVOR SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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Here's the 18Z NAM Parallel 500MB on the same period:

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Quoting AegirsGal:
All the freshwater sources in the state have been drying up. There is only one natural lake in Texas, Caddo Lake, and the rest are reservoirs and were created by the Army Corp of Engineers.
Yeah I saw pics. that angiest posted, would you say this is the worst drought you have ever seen, and are droughts a common thing in Texas, like I know it happens in FL., but you guys seem to get it a lot worst and more frequently than us. Is this just part of the Texas climate.
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Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
We really do judge how bad, or active seasons have been on the threat to our local communities. Here in SW LOUISIANA WE WERE LULLED INTO SLEEP THAT BAD HURRICANES IN OUR AREA WAS A THING OF THE PAST,EVEN WHEN ANDREW CAME KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR IN 91.BUT IT HIT AND DEVASTATED THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WE JUST GOT SOME BREEZES HERE. NOT SINCE 1957 HAS OUR AREA REALLY BEEN IMPACTED BY A MAJOR. THEN IN THE LAST 8 YEARS IT SEEMED LIKE THE UPPER TEXAS -LOUISIANA COASTS WERE THE ONLY PLACES THOSE CONES OF UNCERTAINTY COULD POINT (TOUNGE IN CHEEK). ..... SO WHOEVER IT WAS THAT MENTIONED WE JUDGE HOW A SEASON IS BY GEOGRAPHY IS RIGHT ON TARGET,BECUSE IM SURE THE REST OF THE COASTAL STATES THAT YEAR THOUGHT NOTHING OF IT WHILE JUST IN A THREE YEAR PEROID RITA, AND THEN IKE COVERED US UP WITH WATER.
Your point is well taken. While the GOM communities have gotten the brunt of the landfalls the last few years, EC US, FL, Bahamas have had relatively uneventful seasons. There's actually some scientific evidence that suggests there's a longterm pattern in place, where storm landfalls bundle together. For example, Where N GOM might have been in the crosshairs the last 5 years, this 5 years it may be E Coast of Central America, Yucatan, Srn Mexico. Or next five years it may be EC US. OR after that several years in a row where N Caribbean is impacted. I'm pretty sure I saw some data at the NHC website which illustrates where major storms hit in different decades, and the patterning is pretty obvious.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Three water supplies are marked as having outages, and one of them goes back to last month:

1290004
CITY OF KEMP
KAUFMAN
O
3
2277
759
8/8/2011
Cedar Creek Reservoir


2200117
COOLEY POINT
TARRANT
O
3
156
52
8/8/2011
Paluxy and Twin Mountain-Travis Peak wells


2260026
TWIN BUTTES WATER SYSTEM
TOM GREEN
O
3
44
18
7/29/2011
1 Alluvial well
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Is that an eye on Gert?
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2454
93L appears to ventilating a bit or am I seeing thingsLink
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Parallel NAM has a much weaker solution:






Operational



I am inclined to lean more towards the parallel solution.
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Quoting WxLogic:
18Z NAM 500MB:



Weakness across the E GOM into FL.


That run from the NAM seems quite unlikely.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What are your thoughts on the possibility of development as far as 93L is concerned, and your opinion on the African wave in the E ATL? The sends it into LA as a hurricane, and the ECMWF sends it to the Bahamas as a hurricane.


I have been voicing the need to watch 93L since last week, despite its "death." I think it has a good shot to develop by the time it gets into the western Caribbean.

I don't care much for the model tracks for our new African wave. What matters to me is that they are developing it. The overall pattern is capable of threatening the U.S. from the east, but with the wave fresh out of the womb, it's a bit pointless to be pointing fingers at land masses or ocean at this point. Step 1 here, as it is with all of these waves, is to get the thing developed first.
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Parallel NAM has a much weaker solution:






Operational

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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Looks like I was right, unless Gert is a hurricane in the next advisory. No hurricanes for the first half of august past the normal time one forms.
Didnt want to break the record for most continuous named storms without a hurricane, but we did.
I want a year that all hurricanes but one recurve.
2 Cat.5s for some action. The one hurricane is a Cat.1 that hits Texas and brings some good rain.
I just want to see some hurricane action. Other than the fact that we are on G so early, this season is a
bust so far.


No, it isn't a record until Harvey doesn't become a hurricane.
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Quoting Levi32:
The 18z NAM sees a northwest turn in the western Caribbean due to rapid strengthening of 93L, and thus the storm is able to take advantage of the mid-level weakness over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The potential flaw in this reasoning by the NAM is that 93L may be unable to strengthen at all in the central Caribbean, and significant intensification may wait until farther west, making a run into central America and the Bay of Campeche more likely. It wouldn't take much with all of that warm water to get a hurricane in there though, and thus we will have to monitor for any kind of a northward turn.


Indeed...
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
yeah I know just a thought, would be an enormous effort and quite the scene to witness though if were to happen.


Not only would it be enormous..but impossible
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Quoting Levi32:
The 18z NAM sees a northwest turn in the western Caribbean due to rapid strengthening of 93L, and thus the storm is able to take advantage of the mid-level weakness over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The potential flaw in this reasoning by the NAM is that 93L may be unable to strengthen at all in the central Caribbean, and significant intensification may wait until farther west, making a run into central America and the Bay of Campeche more likely. It wouldn't take much with all of that warm water to get a hurricane in there though, and thus we will have to monitor for any kind of a northward turn.


What are your thoughts on the possibility of development as far as 93L is concerned, and your opinion on the African wave in the E ATL? The sends it into LA as a hurricane, and the ECMWF sends it to the Bahamas as a hurricane.
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Quoting WhoDat1:


He would be a big improvement 2 what we got..


You've got that right!!!!!

But hey, this is a weather blog, not a political blog so I am not going there ;o)
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
The GFS ensembles illustrate 93L's avenue to the north in 96 hours, over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Assuming 93L develops into a tropical cyclone, the big question will be whether it can rapidly strengthen and "feel" this weakness, at least a little bit, which would result in a northward bend in the track. If the system remains undeveloped, or fails to become a hurricane fast, then a straight west to WNW track across the Yucatan and into the southwest Gulf of Mexico is likely.

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
well they could go draw water from a freshwater lake(s), and I thought most rainwater comes from saltwater due to the evaporation process.
All the freshwater sources in the state have been drying up. There is only one natural lake in Texas, Caddo Lake, and the rest are reservoirs and were created by the Army Corp of Engineers.
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For 93L and Texas drought busting,

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Quoting Levi32:
The 18z NAM sees a northwest turn in the western Caribbean due to rapid strengthening of 93L, and thus the storm is able to take advantage of the mid-level weakness over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The potential flaw in this reasoning by the NAM is that 93L may be unable to strengthen at all in the central Caribbean, and significant intensification may wait until farther west, making a run into central America and the Bay of Campeche more likely. It wouldn't take much with all of that warm water to get a hurricane in there though, and thus we will have to monitor for any kind of a northward turn.
what will you say if the gfs depicts the same scenario?
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Looks like I was right, unless Gert is a hurricane in the next advisory. No hurricanes for the first half of august past the normal time one forms.
Didnt want to break the record for most continuous named storms without a hurricane, but we did.
I want a year that all hurricanes but one recurve.
2 Cat.5s for some action. The one hurricane is a Cat.1 that hits Texas and brings some good rain.
I just want to see some hurricane action. Other than the fact that we are on G so early, this season is a
bust so far.
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2454
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


LOL!!!! I remember Perry telling all Texan's to Pray Easter Weekend for rain.... Still waiting for the results of that...LOL


When Sonny Perdue prayed for rain on the Georgia statehouse steps Atlanta had floods of biblical proportions 4 months later. Took me 3.5 hours just to get to work every day for a week straight.
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93L is really trying. The pressures are falling in the Islands !!! also some west winds has been reported so definitely something is brewing there.
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The 18z NAM sees a northwest turn in the western Caribbean due to rapid strengthening of 93L, and thus the storm is able to take advantage of the mid-level weakness over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The potential flaw in this reasoning by the NAM is that 93L may be unable to strengthen at all in the central Caribbean, and significant intensification may wait until farther west, making a run into central America and the Bay of Campeche more likely. It wouldn't take much with all of that warm water to get a hurricane in there though, and thus we will have to monitor for any kind of a northward turn.
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Quoting usa777:


It aint gonna happen.. pray for a tropical storm or a big change in the pattern.
yeah I know just a thought, would be an enormous effort and quite the scene to witness though if were to happen.
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Quoting Patrap:


..eh,,hey man,,choo need a Wash fo dat Low Rider ?,, Eyes knows a guy..


Does this qualify as a racist remark?
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18Z NAM 500MB:



Weakness across the E GOM into FL.
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

woops this is the new 1
Impressive upper outflow.
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Breaking News from ABC13 Monday, August 15, 2011

Mayor Annise Parker has ordered mandatory water conservation measures for the city of Houston due to drought conditions.


Most areas and city's around Houston already have them, guess Houston finally decided they better get with the program.
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074

Quoting KaNaPaPiJoSa:
Just received a text from Fox 26 News in Houston. "Houston has ordered MANDATORY water restrictions for the city". This probably means that the car wash business will be shut down. Surprised it took them this long to make the decision.

There are actual rules based on consumption rates, among other things, as to when the various conservation methods are enacted.

All fourteen MUD's in my part of Cinco Ranch are still at Voluntary (Mild), where they have been for months.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Uh oh, the water supply is being CUTOFF in SE TX
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


LOL!!!! I remember Perry telling all Texan's to Pray Easter Weekend for rain.... Still waiting for the results of that...LOL
guess who is has been his biggest contributer? right now oil companies are not very popular how come gas has not gone down more?
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Quoting KaNaPaPiJoSa:
Just received a text from Fox 26 News in Houston. "Houston has ordered MANDATORY water restrictions for the city". This probably means that the car wash business will be shut down. Surprised it took them this long to make the decision.



..eh,,hey man,,choo need a Wash fo dat Low Rider ?,, Eyes knows a guy..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Quoting Patrap:


Its a good thought my man..but only mother Nature can bring to Texas what they need in the amounts needed.




Thanks, yeah I just saw the map of the drought index, and at first I thought it was just central Texas like the Houston and Dallas areas, but the map shows almost the entire state is in an exceptional drought, so it really is more bad than I actually thought.
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woops this is the new 1
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


LOL!!!! I remember Perry telling all Texan's to Pray Easter Weekend for rain.... Still waiting for the results of that...LOL


Maybe a sign from above that....maybe he's just not..... cut out to run a nation
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12Z euro 240 hours
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Just received a text from Fox 26 News in Houston. "Houston has ordered MANDATORY water restrictions for the city". This probably means that the car wash business will be shut down. Surprised it took them this long to make the decision.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The latter will probably happen later this month.
Which could conceivably cause the former to happen.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting Thrawst:


Sneaky NHC forecasters they are...


They are going to have a tough time topping "Dora explores" from the EPAC earlier this season!
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Quoting usa777:


It aint gonna happen.. pray for a tropical storm or a big change in the pattern.


The latter will probably happen later this month.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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