Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:


Purty and nicely framed too.


Thank you kindly....
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1570
Angiest, that kind of talk scares me! Here in Cypress (TX) we are at 10.6" for the year----on track with what West Texas normally gets. If this drought doesn't break this winter this entire region is going back to open prairie. Right now I'd take my chances with a tropical storm or hurricane; come on 93L!

BTW, I see NYC received 7.8" in a day. I remember about 15 years ago in west Houston we received that much in about one hour one early weekday morning. People went outside to find their autos parked in the street had water up to their door handles.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What are your thoughts on the possibility of development as far as 93L is concerned, and your opinion on the African wave in the E ATL? The sends it into LA as a hurricane, and the ECMWF sends it to the Bahamas as a hurricane.
wheres dat link
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2517
Quoting weatherjr:
Can someone give personal opinion in terms of rain from invest 93 expected for the islands (including PR)?


May see some scattered showers and thunderstorms 93L, but the system is going to pass well to the south.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
The first time this season, a disturbance is actually building a low from the lower levels to the upper levels. IIRC, all the other systems had lows building down from the upper levels.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
Diurnal minimum

Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
yes 93L has a sfc low




thanks when did it be come a SFC low?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
93L spread keeps on going...

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976. SLU
Low added to 93L

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975. JLPR2
93L has done a lot in less than 24hrs.

Last night it didn't have a reflection at the 500mb(mid levels) and had a weak reflection at the 700mb and 850mb(closer to the surface). Today it has a rather nice mid level reflection along with a strengthening 850mb one.
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Quoting angiest:

SIMRAD??


Simulated Radar
Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81

Quoting TheNewGuy:
The 18z SIMRAD product

93L came in a good deal N of the guidance

SIMRAD??
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
970. DFWjc
Quoting sunlinepr:


That's one pretty strong and long LOW over Maryland...blocking everything off the eastern seaboard!!
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On the threshold..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
yes 93L has a sfc low

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2nd new invest for the East Pacific today


EP 90 2011081518 BEST 0 118N 1092W 20 0 DB
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The 18z SIMRAD product

93L came in a good deal N of the guidance

Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
just popped back on for a few before seving the crew dinner...93L looks to be trying to organize...if it does, wouldn't it be more apt to follow the weakness just to the north of it instead of continuing due west?
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Worst overall drought in Texas' recorded history, again from the State Climatologist:

Nielsen-Gammon notes that the most severe Texas drought overall is still
the 1950-1957 drought. During the most intense year of that drought –
1956– Texas set its all-time record for lowest 12-month precipitation,
13.69 inches ending in September.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting angiest:
The State Climatologist has declared this the worst 1 year drought in Texas' history:

COLLEGE STATION, Aug. 4, 2011 – As Texas continues to bake in record
heat, the drought news for the state continues to be bleak – Texas is
now in the midst of its most severe one-year drought on record,
according to John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas State Climatologist and professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University.
thanks for posting that angiest!
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
957. JLPR2
93L 950mb vort.

Yesterday it didn't have one, but as of now, nothing impressive.
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The State Climatologist has declared this the worst 1 year drought in Texas' history:

COLLEGE STATION, Aug. 4, 2011 – As Texas continues to bake in record
heat, the drought news for the state continues to be bleak – Texas is
now in the midst of its most severe one-year drought on record,
according to John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas State Climatologist and professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting WxLogic:


Do you see any new links for the Parallel run for when the old site goes down on the 29th? I guess it might be the same... but checking just in case.


No, I was wondering the same thing, are we loosing access to parallel runs when they are implementing upgrades. Guess we find out Aug 30.
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Looks like the EPAC hurricane streak will end. Ironically, it looks like 93L may develop and become a hurricane, ending the Atlantic tropical storm streak.



Bolded: IMO
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah I saw pics. that angiest posted, would you say this is the worst drought you have ever seen, and are droughts a common thing in Texas, like I know it happens in FL., but you guys seem to get it a lot worst and more frequently than us. Is this just part of the Texas climate.
I have lived in Texas most of my life, aside from a handful of years being stationed along the gulf coast, and this is the hottest and driest I have ever seen it. the landscape here is beginning to resemble pictures I had seen of the 'Dust Bowl' that was Oklahoma in the 1920s-30s. Add this to the many thousands of acres of wildfires we have dealt with over the last couple years, and the reality is very close to what I think most people think of when they hear the word "Texas."
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When i saw this i almost cryed with joy.
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GTCool, seems Texas is either in a drought or flooded but never to this extreme, with little to no rain and temps in the 105 to 110 range every day for this long for a huge portion of Texas. I feel the last 5 years have we have been in a drought with every now and then a flood, we have not had a flood in a long time, state is over due. I have lived here 53 years.
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My mother-in-law lives in the Montgomery, TX. She just informed me that for the first time in the 30 years she HAD to switch her house to city water. The well went dry!

Also, friends living in and around the Edwards Aquifer tell me that the aquifer is quite stressed and underground water levels are extremely low compared to recent norms, though not as low as some of the previous levels from observing mineral deposits that indicate water levels have been much lower. Of course some of the lowest observed mineral deposits showing where water levels were much lower happened a very long time ago (1000's of years)
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Parallel NAM has a much weaker solution:






Operational



Do you see any new links for the Parallel run for when the old site goes down on the 29th? I guess it might be the same... but checking just in case.
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can any onr tell me if 93L has a sfc low? or froming one?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
Anyone knows if there is going to be rain tomorow? ;-)
We have more than needed...

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Quoting RitaEvac:
Has Bush hit 100 yet today? this would break the 1980 streak of 14 days.

CLIMATE...
IAH HAS NOW GONE 14 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
100 DEGREES WHICH TIES THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE 100-DEGREE
DAYS SET IN JULY 1980. AUGUST`S AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 14TH
IS 90.6 DEGREES WHICH IS 5.6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IAH IS STILL ON
TRACK TO BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE HOTTEST AUGUST EVER - 87.7 DEGREES
SET IN 2010. THE AIRPORT RECEIVED ITS FIRST MEASURABLE RAINFALL OF
THE MONTH YESTERDAY - 0.07 INCHES. AUGUST 2011 WILL NOT GO DOWN AS
THE DRIEST AUGUST ON RECORD - A TRACE OF RAIN FELL IN 1927. 42
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 152037
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011
200 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2011

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 132.3W
ABOUT 1630 MI...2620 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 1655 MI...2660 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 P
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Quoting WaterWitch11:




Purty and nicely framed too.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
Okay so invest 93, all will tell with this system in what 3 days from now or less?
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Has Bush hit 100 yet today? this would break the 1980 streak of 14 days.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.