Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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18Z GFS hour 12...Notice the African wave:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31518
ECMWF
Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
Quoting RitaEvac:


That would be something if the region went back to open prairies
As dry as it has been, if a storm does hit here, then we just might end up an open prairie. I swear, the trees around here have become brittle. I am exaggerating a bit, but without the water these trees normally get I feel they are weaker than normal.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:

Thinking of stormtop?


Yes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31518
Quoting sarahjola:
wow! thats 2 models saying the same. just how strong is the system in this model run? tia!


900hpa winds at 100 knots

968mb pressure


Cat 2/3

For what its worth.
Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1031. MTWX
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Cheaper, yes, but a huge waste of energy, petroleum and groundwater.

and flying water from the great lakes wouldn't be??
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1030. Levi32
Quoting bigwes6844:
wow!!! is this serious because if so im packing my things net weekend if this is correct and they stay with it. Im in new orleans. What cat.is that on your map?


It means little. Always be ready to pack in a hurry all season long, but don't actually pack unless you see a major storm 3 days from landfall in your area. We're talking about 10-15 days from now, and a wave that is just fresh out of the womb. The GFS has already planted that storm in several different places, thousands of miles apart.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26556
1029. angiest

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Oops sorry, was thinking you were another person.

Sorry!!
Thinking of stormtop?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Um, never said anyting about wanting it to go to New Orleans..... I said we need it here in my neck of the woods, which is Houston,


Oops sorry, was thinking you were another person.

Sorry!! You guys have about the same avatar, it looks like.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31518
Quoting TheNewGuy:
12z GFS

Don't read into it too much. It's just filler until the 18z GFS comes out.

900hpa winds at 100 knots

968mb pressure


wow! thats 2 models saying the same. just how strong is the system in this model run? tia!(ooops) sorry spoke before i read. lol! i see where you said how strong it is. sorry again
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1026. angiest

Quoting bigwes6844:
wow!!! is this serious because if so im packing my things net weekend if this is correct and they stay with it. Im in new orleans. What cat.is that on your map?
That's almost two weeks out, I think.  And only one run from one model.  No reason to be worried about it, you have plenty of time, and more than likely this will not pan out.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting bigwes6844:
wow!!! is this serious because if so im packing my things net weekend if this is correct and they stay with it. Im in new orleans. What cat.is that on your map?


Category 2 hurricane on both models.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31518
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You've been saying you want the systems to come to New Orleans, but yet, when one of the models actually show it, you say you don't want it.

Make up your mind.


Um, never said anyting about wanting it to go to New Orleans..... I said we need it here in my neck of the woods, which is Houston,
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18z SHIP is north of the consensus, but not an immediate threat to the US.

Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
Quoting MTWX:

economically speaking, it would be cheaper to buy bottled water and dump it in the rivers, lakes, yards, etc...


Cheaper, yes, but a huge waste of energy, petroleum and groundwater.
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1021. angiest

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


GFS forecast for any storm in the Gulf is not surprising given that forecast track crosses through the 31C+ SSTs.
Kinda what I've been worrying about lately, with nothing to use up all that energy so far (Arlene and Don certainly didn't draw that much heat off the Gulf), if the lid *does* come off this year we could have some serious problems.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
18Z GFS is running...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31518
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


GFS:




ECMWF:


wow!!! is this serious because if so im packing my things net weekend if this is correct and they stay with it. Im in new orleans. What cat.is that on your map?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TropicalAnalystwx13: i would keep a eye on 5N 30W i noted some sight turning in one of the waves
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114758
thanks to all that replied...trying to do 10 things at once lol....bout time to pull hair and scream... thank goodness school starts tomorrow...gonna do the dance in the front yard at 7am... :)
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


Oh plese not New Orleans again... We are still listing to them whine from the last one.


You've been saying you want the systems to come to New Orleans, but yet, when one of the models actually show it, you say you don't want it.

Make up your mind.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31518
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


GFS:




ECMWF:




GFS forecast for any storm in the Gulf is not surprising given that forecast track crosses through the 31C+ SSTs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9715
Quoting TheNewGuy:
12z GFS

Don't read into it too much. It's just filler until the 18z GFS comes out.

900hpa winds at 100 knots

968mb pressure




Oh plese not New Orleans again... We are still listing to them whine from the last one.
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1011. WxLogic
One thing is for sure. The convective outburst from this AM has done well to improved the moisture profile ahead of the LLC. Wouldn't expect it to be fighting dry air by DMAX tomorrow.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
93L losing its satellite swagger..





not a lot of billowing cloudtops...


Was expecting this. 93L will continue to loose most of its deep convection throughout the night, with a blowup later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tiggeriffic:


that is for 93L correct? and is the change in movement due to the fact that it appears to be strengthening and the models now expect it to be pulled to the north instead of going due west?


Actually, the ECMWF and GFS both show the African wave, not 93L.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31518
1008. angiest

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, it is. But I expect to see a small, weak system on the 18Z GFS which should start running within the next few minutes, lol.
That is probably true, with a magical trough to pull it out into the open Atlantic!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting tiggeriffic:


that is for 93L correct? and is the change in movement due to the fact that it appears to be strengthening and the models now expect it to be pulled to the north instead of going due west?


That's on the "pseudo" African system.
Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1005. angiest

Quoting tiggeriffic:


that is for 93L correct? and is the change in movement due to the fact that it appears to be strengthening and the models now expect it to be pulled to the north instead of going due west?
No, that is a wave that is just now moving off Africa.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1004. SLU
The convection associated with 93L has weakened and this is perfectly normal for a developing system in the Atlantic basin. 93L is a very healthy system under seemingly acceptable environmental conditions and so the convection should redevelop overnight around the low located somewhere between St. Lucia and Barbados.

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Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4886
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


GFS:




ECMWF:




that is for 93L correct? and is the change in movement due to the fact that it appears to be strengthening and the models now expect it to be pulled to the north instead of going due west?
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Quoting angiest:

That is one huge storm on GFS...


Yeah, it is. But I expect to see a small, weak system on the 18Z GFS which should start running within the next few minutes, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31518
1001. MTWX
Quoting usa777:


Not only would it be enormous..but impossible

economically speaking, it would be cheaper to buy bottled water and dump it in the rivers, lakes, yards, etc...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z GFS

Don't read into it too much. It's just filler until the 18z GFS comes out.

900hpa winds at 100 knots

968mb pressure


Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


GFS:




ECMWF:


That is one huge storm on GFS...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting Tazmanian:



and is it close yet?



Maybe maybe not lol
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
if 93l does become something, what are the current steering conditions and can anyone explain how i can see or calculate possible steering from sat. view? thanks!
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Quoting bigwes6844:
wheres dat link


GFS:




ECMWF:


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31518
Quoting tropicfreak:


Not too long ago, next thing is to get it to close.



and is it close yet?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114758
Quoting SailnSurfer:
Angiest, that kind of talk scares me! Here in Cypress (TX) we are at 10.6" for the year----on track with what West Texas normally gets. If this drought doesn't break this winter this entire region is going back to open prairie. Right now I'd take my chances with a tropical storm or hurricane; come on 93L!

BTW, I see NYC received 7.8" in a day. I remember about 15 years ago in west Houston we received that much in about one hour one early weekday morning. People went outside to find their autos parked in the street had water up to their door handles.


That would be something if the region went back to open prairies
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It appears to be 'monsooning' in Southern Ontario - variable rains travelling in storm cells from east to west: it's those retrograde lows again.

___

So, how does one 'decide' whether these events (unusual rainfall patterns, droughts and floods...) directly represent a shift in our climate, or whether it's all some natural cycle we don't yet know about? IMHO (where O stands for observation), people seem to react differently to what may be the same global or regional threat, real or perceived: decisions (world or self) become based on our limited understanding.

For those of you so inclined, there are books such as eaarth [978-0-307-39918-2]. Yes, I still hold the current and up-to-date opinion that oscillations generally do not override trends. And now, back to the tropics:

Link
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Quoting angiest:


CLIMATE...
IAH HAS NOW GONE 14 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
100 DEGREES WHICH TIES THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE 100-DEGREE
DAYS SET IN JULY 1980. AUGUST`S AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 14TH
IS 90.6 DEGREES WHICH IS 5.6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IAH IS STILL ON
TRACK TO BREAK THE RECORD FOR THE HOTTEST AUGUST EVER - 87.7 DEGREES
SET IN 2010. THE AIRPORT RECEIVED ITS FIRST MEASURABLE RAINFALL OF
THE MONTH YESTERDAY - 0.07 INCHES. AUGUST 2011 WILL NOT GO DOWN AS
THE DRIEST AUGUST ON RECORD - A TRACE OF RAIN FELL IN 1927. 42



I Live just a few miles from IAH (Bush) and it is 104 at my house right now, not including the heat index.

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Quoting Tazmanian:



thanks when did it be come a SFC low?


Not too long ago, next thing is to get it to close.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
Quoting TheNewGuy:


Stay SOUTH!!!!!
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Quoting Patrap:


Purty and nicely framed too.


Thank you kindly....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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