Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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1088. nigel20
Quoting missclean:
this will be the same as last season not to much affecting anyone or any land areas

Mexico was hit hard in 2010 primarily from hurricane Alex and hurricane Karl, so was St Lucia and sections of Canada. Its not always about the US.
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Quoting ncstorm:


I dont think 10 days is long at all..next Monday we would have an idea if its coming to the east coast or not..


10 days out of an entire life is not a long time... 10 days in the life of a "possible" storm is a very long time...it hasnt developed yet...this is what models expect due to time of year...things change daily...if you put 10 days in the life of any storm that has been given a number this year...it didn't amount to much...give a storm like hugo or Andrew 10 days...then there is a difference...
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Tropical can i please see that graph again you had of the storm in LA
img Link
Here ya go!!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
Quoting Levi32:


We'll find out if it gets into the gulf. Most storms encounter the current for a time given that it's in the middle of the gulf, but again, such a fine detail is impossible to know 15 days in advance.
okay kool ill be watching then.
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Gert is giving one last fight to become a hurricane:

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The big picture...

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93L's pretty big.
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very low wind shear ahead of 93L is a very dangerous scenario. we could be dealing with the first Hurricane of the season and maybe a Major Hurricane.
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As TD6E joins in the EPAC, the all-hurricane party is over,for the forecasts not predicting hurricane strength.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Just monsoonal convection, nothing will come of it.
Tropical can i please see that graph again you had of the storm in LA
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Quoting presslord:
Who's in charge here?!?!?!


Alexander Haig.
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1075. nigel20

Shear Tendency.
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As I [and numerous others] espected, 93L is taking advantage of that favorable area between 50 and 60 W to begin to organize. I agree it's looked impressive today, but I'm more interested to see what it looks like at 2 a.m. tomorrow morning. If it still looks impressive while coming off D-min, it may stand a chance. Unfortunately this is yet another system that's going to have to bust out of the CAR somewhere......






Also of interest to me is this system in the EPac just south of southern MX. It's got a fairly strong pulse with it, and is tipped for moderate development. If this develops, IMO this will be the last serious EPac development for a while, maybe the rest of the season if that la nina cooling continues.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22585
Quoting USAFwxguy:
GFS seen carrying 93L, undeveloped, into Caribbean wnw. Bend in isobar south of DR/PR is the energy

A whole lotta nothing in the short term. Gives more credence to a westward track across the Caribbean in the Yucatan.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1071. Levi32
Quoting bigwes6844:
okay kool but that is crazy if it does stay the same. Levi ima ask u the same question. If it does make it to the GOM does it hit that darn loop current?


We'll find out if it gets into the gulf. Most storms encounter the current for a time given that it's in the middle of the gulf, but again, such a fine detail is impossible to know 15 days in advance.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
1070. ncstorm
Quoting tiggeriffic:


the system isn't what worries me as much as the appearance of that blocking ridge...the sheer fact that models are expecting it to happen...i know and understand that models can be wrong...i know weather changes on a daily basis...i know the models cannot predict the future...but i also know that they are basing that information on what is heading toward the east...what it has done...the strength of it...will it cross an area condusive to weaken or strengthen, etc...10 days out is a very long time...but still... it is getting to close to "that time of year" for the east coast


I dont think 10 days is long at all..next Monday we would have an idea if its coming to the east coast or not..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
Quoting TheNewGuy:


It's 14 days out from now. It's pretty likely that wouldn't even happen at all.
thats true but im still paying close mind to it
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I was wondering when Stormtop/Stormkat/rainstorm would be back.


She's persistent.

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Quoting TheNewGuy:


It's 14 days out from now. It's pretty likely that wouldn't even happen at all.

Eventual track will depend on strength of the system, environmental conditions, and timing. What this should be telling us is that the season is changing gears and more intense storms will likely form in the near future. August 15 through October 15 is the climatological peak months for hurricane formation. With above normal SST's in the Carib and the GOM we should all be vigilant and watchful if you live in a coastal area!!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
1065. nigel20
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Here's the site. :D

Thanks.
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Quoting missclean:
south mexico will get 93 as a tropical depression theres to much wind shear ahead of it and it could even fall apart again


Hey stormkat I know that's you.
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Quoting TheNewGuy:


Yeah, that's a pretty serious system.


the system isn't what worries me as much as the appearance of that blocking ridge...the sheer fact that models are expecting it to happen...i know and understand that models can be wrong...i know weather changes on a daily basis...i know the models cannot predict the future...but i also know that they are basing that information on what is heading toward the east...what it has done...the strength of it...will it cross an area condusive to weaken or strengthen, etc...10 days out is a very long time...but still... it is getting to close to "that time of year" for the east coast
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Quoting nigel20:

Nice vis

Here's the site. :D
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Thing that struck me the most about angiest's pics is that the grass is growing, well established, on what used to be the bottom of the lake. That implies the level has been down long enough for the grass to get established. Pretty scary thought.


Yep. It is scary all over. I haven't been to the lake we usually fish in, Sam Rayburn in east TX, since May. In May there were bridges over sand dunes. Most of the boat ramps were inaccessible. I can't imagine how dry it is now. But someone drove their truck across it on the 4th of July. Scary is an apt description. It's just awful.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Just monsoonal convection, nothing will come of it.


oky
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
1057. nigel20
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
GERT

Nice vis
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Quoting Levi32:


It means little. Always be ready to pack in a hurry all season long, but don't actually pack unless you see a major storm 3 days from landfall in your area. We're talking about 10-15 days from now, and a wave that is just fresh out of the womb. The GFS has already planted that storm in several different places, thousands of miles apart.
okay kool but that is crazy if it does stay the same. Levi ima ask u the same question. If it does make it to the GOM does it hit that darn loop current?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
TropicalAnalystwx13 i now note there are two other waves we need too watch out in the Central Atlantic and both has some turning in them


the 1st one is 5N 30W



the 2nd one is 5N 35W



plzs ues this IR Link



and tell me what you see and think of them all so any mode runs show any thing on them?


Just monsoonal convection, nothing will come of it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
1054. nigel20

IF the wave near Africa maintains convection over the next two or three days, then it should have more favorable conditions.
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GERT
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1052. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting bigwes6844:
wow thats amazing but could it possible be higher if it hits the loop current?


It's 14 days out from now. It's pretty likely that wouldn't even happen at all.
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TropicalAnalystwx13 i now note there are two other waves we need too watch out in the Central Atlantic and both has some turning in them


the 1st one is 5N 30W



the 2nd one is 5N 35W



plzs ues this IR Link



and tell me what you see and think of them all so any mode runs show any thing on them?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Quoting bigwes6844:
wow thats amazing but could it possible be higher if it hits the loop current?


Anything is possible, but it is way too early to be talking about intensity or track, when a system hasn't even developed into a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Quoting tiggeriffic:


i know and understand that it is 10 days out...but will start now by saying.....NO THANK YOU PLEASE


Yeah, that's a pretty serious system.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Category 2 hurricane on both models.
wow thats amazing but could it possible be higher if it hits the loop current?
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Quoting Patrap:








Compare.

2011:



2010:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Quoting angiest:

That's almost two weeks out, I think.  And only one run from one model.  No reason to be worried about it, you have plenty of time, and more than likely this will not pan out.
i mean thats real but the gfs has done a good job with 93L as it was weak and im pretty sure that this maybe the test for the U.S.
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Quoting TheNewGuy:
ECMWF


i know and understand that it is 10 days out...but will start now by saying.....NO THANK YOU PLEASE
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Quoting missclean:
cant believe people are panicking with 93... its not even a strom and might not even become one and no one really knows where it is going remember the track will change at least 20 time over the next 5 days so simmer down it might even die out again wouldnt surprisse me


First off, BREATHE!


Second off it's way too early to say where it will go, it could very well being on its way to TD soon.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah I saw pics. that angiest posted, would you say this is the worst drought you have ever seen, and are droughts a common thing in Texas, like I know it happens in FL., but you guys seem to get it a lot worst and more frequently than us. Is this just part of the Texas climate.
Thing that struck me the most about angiest's pics is that the grass is growing, well established, on what used to be the bottom of the lake. That implies the level has been down long enough for the grass to get established. Pretty scary thought.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22585
1040. Patrap






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1039. nigel20
Good evening guys.
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18Z GFS hour 12...Notice the African wave:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.