Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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1093. Whats that? Can't hear ya Speak up.
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Just my opinion but 93l looks to be organizing a circulation around 14.5n 60w. Will see tomorrow. Maybe interesting, going by nhc rgb in motion.
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1136. 800733
new here, does anyone thank fl could see a storm this year!?
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1135. laguna2
Quoting tiggeriffic:


10 days out of an entire life is not a long time... 10 days in the life of a "possible" storm is a very long time...it hasnt developed yet...this is what models expect due to time of year...things change daily...if you put 10 days in the life of any storm that has been given a number this year...it didn't amount to much...give a storm like hugo or Andrew 10 days...then there is a difference...


That's a VERY good point. People need to take a breath and read (several times) what you wrote. GFS has been showing a cyclone in the GOM (on and off) for over TWO weeks. It's always 8-10 days out AND none of them have yet to materialize. GFS had them making landfall from Tampico to Pensacola. All should be prepared, but it's much too early to get panicky.
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1134. scott39
93L is going slower than it ever has. Still going 21mph...but slower
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6860
Quoting missclean:
watch that huge trough that is comming down the us in 3 days and watch how it will pick up 93 and keep it away from the us that is if dry air and wind shear doesnt do it in again i think it will be fizzled out again by tommorow uts already losing alot of convection


Make up your mind stormkat, is it going into mexico or OTS?
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Hello again Mr. 93L. I'll definitely be watchin you big boy. Gotta go make dinner but not before I've checked the tropics and enjoyed another musical interlude. Presslord and Patrap be jammn' HaHa..CYL2nite


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Hello again Mr. 93L. I'll definitely be watchin you big boy. Gotta go make dinner but not before I've checked the tropics and enjoyed another musical interlude. Presslord and Patrap be jammn' HaHa..CYL2nite
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Right, now that I'm all caught up, I gotta run.... ya'll keep it sweet for me till I get back...
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1128. Patrap
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Quoting cat6band:
Levi...I see how some models are showing what "may become" of the system exiting Africa's coast right now...my question is this...What would stop that type of scenario from happening with 93l?
Main thing is that it's not yet organized. By the time it gets its act together, it'll likely be too far west. Another thing is location. A storm drifting NW from the African coast is more likely to end up off the E coast of FL than one that's at 15N 60W. Especially at this time of year, troughs don't normally dig deep enough.
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Quoting Levi32:


Well that's not really fair because it already has a very low chance of developing before 75W anyway. The real time to see what this system has is when it gets into the western Caribbean. We saw how fast it came back from the dead today. It doesn't really matter how it looks tomorrow. It will matter more when it's actually in a favorable environment without the strong trade winds. I already expect it to look rather shabby in 24 hours.


I think he/she was talking about the wave off Africa.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32274
1124. Levi32
Quoting cat6band:
Levi...I see how some models are showing what "may become" of the system exiting Africa's coast right now...my question is this...What would stop that type of scenario from happening with 93l?


Time. If it races through the Caribbean, it could ram into the Yucatan before it gets a chance to significantly develops, thus limiting its intensity.

In terms of the track, the Texas ridge is still strong, although a tad farther west than it has been. A weakness in the ridge will be over the eastern gulf during the next few days, but 93L would probably have to strengthen into a strong storm quickly in order to be pulled north towards the U.S. by it. Our Caribbean friends are at risk first here.
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Puerto Rico radar picking up outter edge of rain from 93L
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1122. Patrap
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hey, where is that blogger? The images were so....tragic.


pssst,,use the blog archive,,the posts are still there.
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Quoting TheNewGuy:
12z GFS

Don't read into it too much. It's just filler until the 18z GFS comes out.

900hpa winds at 100 knots

968mb pressure




Hey, where's the link for the NCEP GFS model you posted? Thanks....
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I really am starting to believe these pple who keep coming into the blog and saying "only MX/CAR whatever got hit, so no busy season this year" are doing it strictly to troll bloggers who actually have a true sense of geography. I'm certainly in the mood to - a few of them every time they do it.

Whatever happened to our blogger from Monterrey, MX? I'll never forget the imagery of the flooding from Alex last year that was posted here..... If somebody's got to take a blow, I hope it's not that same area again.

Hey, where is that blogger? The images were so....tragic.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting bigwes6844:
wow just amazing like i told tropical and Levi. I cant even imagine that because we are getting ready for Katrina's 6th anniversary here in new orleans. The one weird thing i realize is that the date of Katrina is the same from 2005 to this year's dates.

Yes that is quite the coincidence, lets see what the 18Z run of the GFS has in store for us!! IMO one model cant be trusted as "THE" reliable source for possible track. A multi-model consensus is far more accurate in forecasting in the 3 to 5 day window!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
Evening all. I see 93 is still 93. The heat is back again, but it was so nice yesterday to stay in the eighties.
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Quoting missclean:
93 IS ANOTHER EMILY AND WILL PROBABLY DIE OUT AGAIN THE MODELS AND FORCASTS WILL CHANGE AT LEAST 20 TIMES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS

shut up peak of season coming
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Levi...I see how some models are showing what "may become" of the system exiting Africa's coast right now...my question is this...What would stop that type of scenario from happening with 93l?
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1113. nigel20

Invest 93L vis.
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1112. Patrap
Quoting USAFwxguy:


Coincidental, and that's a stretch.


No,,actually we call it "climatology".

But I was a Jarhead so take it with a grain of Salt.

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1111. scott39
Some of you crack me up! LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6860
Quoting BahaHurican:
I really am starting to believe these pple who keep coming into the blog and saying "only MX/CAR whatever got hit, so no busy season this year" are doing it strictly to troll bloggers who actually have a true sense of geography. I'm certainly in the mood to - a few of them every time they do it.

Whatever happened to our blogger from Monterrey, MX? I'll never forget the imagery of the flooding from Alex last year that was posted here..... If somebody's got to take a blow, I hope it's not that same area again.


Never know the cartel might of got em
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Quoting Patrap:


Really? Really? Always around my birthday. Thanks a lot, Mom. Time to find that canned butter...
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Quoting Patrap:
This year,,the August Days match 2005 in synch,,Mon the 29th is K plus 6 yrs.


I remember that morning plain as day and I wasn't even near the storm.
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I really am starting to believe these pple who keep coming into the blog and saying "only MX/CAR whatever got hit, so no busy season this year" are doing it strictly to troll bloggers who actually have a true sense of geography. I'm certainly in the mood to - a few of them every time they do it.

Whatever happened to our blogger from Monterrey, MX? I'll never forget the imagery of the flooding from Alex last year that was posted here..... If somebody's got to take a blow, I hope it's not that same area again.

Also thinking that a gully washer over TX like Alex could result in some MASSIVE runoff flash flooding...
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

wow just amazing like i told tropical and Levi. I cant even imagine that because we are getting ready for Katrina's 6th anniversary here in new orleans. The one weird thing i realize is that the date of Katrina is the same from 2005 to this year's dates.
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2642
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
1103. Patrap
This year,,the August Days match 2005 in synch,,Mon the 29th is K plus 6 yrs.
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Quoting missclean:
93 IS ANOTHER EMILY AND WILL PROBABLY DIE OUT AGAIN THE MODELS AND FORCASTS WILL CHANGE AT LEAST 20 TIMES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS


Now I'm convinced that you're stormkat.
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1100. Levi32
Quoting Chucktown:
This wave looks just like 93 L did when it came off the coast of Africa last week and is now looking a lot less impressive over water. The next 24 hours will be crucial to see if it can sustain itself. Remember what the GFS did with 93 L, so I wouldn't put too much stock in the models.

Link


Well that's not really fair because it already has a very low chance of developing before 75W anyway. The real time to see what this system has is when it gets into the western Caribbean. We saw how fast it came back from the dead today. It doesn't really matter how it looks tomorrow. It will matter more when it's actually in a favorable environment without the strong trade winds. I already expect it to look rather shabby in 24 hours.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
very low wind shear ahead of 93L is a very dangerous scenario. we could be dealing with the first Hurricane of the season and maybe a Major Hurricane.


Now that would be cool, and scary, first hurricane of the season becomes a major, only this time it was in August.
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1097. Patrap







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With 93L disorganized, it's pretty hard to tell whether the anticyclone is over it or not.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Tropical can i please see that graph again you had of the storm in LA

Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
Quoting Patrap:

OH MY GOD
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting missclean:
all the local weather channels here at 5pm are saying that 93 wont develop to much if any and should stay down to south mexico


I need proof stormkat....Tropicfreak
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1091. Patrap
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This wave looks just like 93 L did when it came off the coast of Africa last week and is now looking a lot less impressive over water. The next 24 hours will be crucial to see if it can sustain itself. Remember what the GFS did with 93 L, so I wouldn't put too much stock in the models.

Link
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
img
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
1088. nigel20
Quoting missclean:
this will be the same as last season not to much affecting anyone or any land areas

Mexico was hit hard in 2010 primarily from hurricane Alex and hurricane Karl, so was St Lucia and sections of Canada. Its not always about the US.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.