Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:
Here is a link for the Florida Evacuation maps. I think it is a good idea for people living in different areas to post the links on here. It could come in handy some day. Just click on your County, and the the details show up

Link

Do you know where I can find an AL evac. route map?
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Quoting presslord:


fair enough
Press, you live fairly close to the coast, right? What are mandatory evacs like for your area? [gotta admit I'm more familiar w/ FL ones, since that's the place I'm most likely to have to deal w/ a hurricane outside my own home].
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
2536. Squid28
Quoting Grothar:



Pretty much the same. The shame is that there are so many elderly and disabled people that it is either difficult or impossible for them to evacuate without assistance. Our local Red Cross started a "buddy system" in which people would register if they were incapable of evacuating on their own. Others would sign up and be responsible for bringing them to shelters or family members. Not a bad idea all in all.


After the whole Rita mess, our church set up what we dubbed "save a senior (citizen)" The relevant points were that we have several church owned buses and vans which we agreed to dedicate to evacuating members of our congregation who were elderley, disabled or unable to afford to evacuate otherwise. We set up a reciprocal agreement with two other churches for shelter at our designated evacuation points. The program is manned by volunteers from our church, complete with a "facilities trailer" including the ole port o can, food, water and reserve fuel.

Alternately, we also have a program where we try and match individual seniors to individual families to get them to evacuate the senior with their own family to a safe point and cover the seniors expenses for the trip.
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BaHa, we were asked to write it on our arm. Can't remember which arm but they did specify one over the other.
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Quoting beell:
Hawkeye Media/Bolivar Peninsula/Post-Ike


Great link. Thanks.
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I like the way people think it really matters that this is only the 3rd season with the 7th storm so early. All our storms have been small this year, and until what 1970's some of these storms wouldn't have even been detected, so really, what does the record really mean? Technology is new, data is new, so every year you'll find some kind of record.

On a funny note,,,,

Link
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2530. Grothar
Here is a link for the Florida Evacuation maps. I think it is a good idea for people living in different areas to post the links on here. It could come in handy some day. Just click on your County, and the the details show up

Link
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2529. K8eCane
Quoting presslord:


'bout time for me to start shopping for a new outfit ;-)




I admire you Press. Youre awesome
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2528. beell
Hawkeye Media/Bolivar Peninsula/Post-Ike
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Quoting msgambler:
I know during Katrina and Ivan when the local sherrif cam through the neighborhood for the mandated evac. I had to sign a waiver giving them my vital info and next of kin info before I was alowed to stay. Now that is in Alabama so I don't know how the laws are elsewhere.
I actually like this approach. If pple in a mandatory evac area insist on staying, it would help masses afterwards for local authorities to know they are/were there. As someone wrote rather harshly a couple years back [forget during which storm, now], don't forget to write your ssn on your torso so your body can be ID'd among the rubble of the storm... We certainly don't have anything that organized here...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting WxLogic:
MDSD area sounding:



Looks moist enough through a good depth of atmo.
Moist enough for what?

Enough dry air there to hinder sustained convection...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting Jax82:
The simple fact that the models are showing major hurricanes out there, no matter where they are ending up at 240 hours, tells us that the potential is out there for a CONUS hit, and that we are entering the peak of the season. Strap on your seats belts!
Truth be told! Have a feeling GOM is in for a bumpy ride this year (just a hunch). Seatbelt strapped!
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The Big Picture:

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2523. NASA101
06 HWRF brings 93L to 140 knots winds at 900mb! Ridiculous given what it looks like right now...

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Quoting hurricane23:


They way the globals have performed this season thus far until i actually see a strengthening cane on an IR map its not worth putting to much stock on for the time being. For now it will have dry air and saharan dust to deal with.

Model skill that far out in any model whether its the ECM or GFS is actually quite poor in my book.


I agree, but the ECMWF is a good model maybe even the best model out there, it never really developed Emily and ended up being right and the NHC credited the model for that. I would not put much stock in the track this far out, I would not even even expect it to do much until 50-55 W either. The potential is out there though.
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2521. WxLogic
MDSD area sounding:



Looks moist enough through a good depth of atmo.
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2520. MahFL
Quoting LADobeLady:
One of the lessons I learned in Gustav is water. You think you have enough, you don't. We were under a boil ban for a month. Go buy more water now. It is a huge PITA to have to boil all that water. I now have the ability to purify 12,000 gallons and have 250 gallons of bottled water on hand. Sanitation is also something most don't think about. Sewage was out here after Gustav, if you want to stay or come back, you need to be prepared for everything. What FEMA suggests you have on hand is not enough.


Where do you store 250 gallons of water, and how much did it cost to buy ?

Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3492
Quoting zoomiami:


Hey Press:

But isn't that one of those mandatory evacuation zones? I mean if you live where the water is only a few hundred feet in front and back, you know that there is going to be an issue.

Barrier islands such as the Florida Keys really have no choice but to evacuate, as there is not enough sustainable buildings for shelters, and its very easy to overwash the area.


This may sound heartless & its not meant that way. I live 30mins from there. And the newscast said leave or face certain death.
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2518. Grothar
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Gro, we have the same here. The elderly/disabled (or a relitive) signs them up on a list and in the event of an evac. someone will pick them up. Not sure if the ones picking them up are volunteers who signed up to do it or if it a program that exists here but after Ivan there were alot of people who signed up for the program in our area. We live in an area with alot of older generation and we (the fire dept.) went on a sign-in drive to get them signed up for the program. It was a great success IMO for the safety of those that might not have it otherwise.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
In the EPAC, Fernanda is born:

EP, 06, 2011081612, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1341W, 40, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 30, 1009, 175, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FERNANDA, M,
That little blob poking its head out into the Bay of Campeche is what I'm focusing on. Almost a year ago, TS Hermine jumped into the GOM, RId and gave TX 15" of rain in one day. Not faced with the atl gauntlets, she was free to blow up and blow in. GOM doesn't look as moist as it probably was then, though.
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2515. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


So where's the "Big Picture"?
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Quoting presslord:


I respectfully (and I mean that) disagree....all the preparation in the world wouldn't have meant anything to those on the Bolivar Penninsula after Ike...it's great as a general rule...but there are a lot of variables which can make it a gamble...
I agree. There are in my mind some places where pple just should not be during a storm. Beach front property and barrier islands are two of them. When Andrew passed through Eleuthera, people who experienced the worst trauma were those on some very tiny low-lying islands [Current Island] where the storm surge basically ran over the entire island. This is basically what happened to Bolivar. What may be surprising to many who don't live here is that the majority of the larger Bahamian islands are relatively "hilly". By that I mean the centre or "spine" of each island is 50+ feet above sea level. This means it is usually possible to get above the surge, which, as Pat constantly reminds us, is the most likely culprit in hurricane deaths. If you are in a place where you can't geographically get about 35 feet, my advice is get out. Over 35 ft, many "panic" evacuees could stay put and survive. I think for many evacuation becomes a way to avoid the aftermath of hurricanes, which is normally pretty horrible, to tell the truth, even if nothing "bad" happens to you and yours.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
2513. MahFL
Quoting Nolehead:
The GFS animated Link: Something of interest.

that's not good at all...would be a lot of oil being slung around the al/fl beaches..


The oil is mostly on the seabed, 1000's of feet below the surface.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3492
2512. jpsb
Quoting angiest:


Even on Bolivar, if you were in the third or fourth row back from the beach, you probably had a home standing. It may have needed to be gutted, but it was standing.
You might want check out this pic of bolivar after Ike. Not much left other then slabs.

http://texascoastgeology.com/passes/rollover.html
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2511. Jax82


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2510. angiest
Shortly before Ike, I wrote up a blog discussing the types of things that would make me (living inland) evacuate for certain types of hurricanes.

If you live in a surge area, this doesn't apply to you, you should evacuate. Your local authorities will tell you when you should go based on forecast surge impact, and they are hopefully hedging for a stronger storm than forecast.

If you live inland, it is up to your own situation.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2509. Grothar
Quoting P451:


Given a man of your level of wisdom I would think you've had ample time to build up a vast extended family. There has to be at least one individual in there willing to take you in.

:)



In that case, then I guess you never met me. LOL I can be irritating sometimes, in case you haven't noticed.
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Quoting K8eCane:




Press...Hopefully you wont have to get dressed again anytime soon. LOLOL


'bout time for me to start shopping for a new outfit ;-)
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Quoting LPStormspotter:


not sure where you are. But here in Tx they have phone #'s to call if you need to leave but can't for whatever reason. Just saying!
Sorry guys. Posting from cell.. didn't realize it posted 3 times
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2506. Squid28
Quoting presslord:
In my never to be humble opinion....Texas has done by far the best job of any state establishing meaningful disaster prep and response protocols....


Thats because there were a lot of very unhappy, desperate, and angry gun totin Texans looking for any public official after the Rita debacle... Myself included nothing like thirty eight hours to do a four hour drive
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One of the lessons I learned in Gustav is water. You think you have enough, you don't. We were under a boil ban for a month. Go buy more water now. It is a huge PITA to have to boil all that water. I now have the ability to purify 12,000 gallons and have 250 gallons of bottled water on hand. Sanitation is also something most don't think about. Sewage was out here after Gustav, if you want to stay or come back, you need to be prepared for everything. What FEMA suggests you have on hand is not enough.
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A quick stop in to post this new map which has piqued my interest.

This is the best surface convergence signature that 93L has ever had since coming off Africa to the best of my recollection. It could finally be making a serious attempt at producing a surface low and the circulation that goes with it. The 850,700 and 500 mb vorticity are all lined up nicely on the recent maps as well but no time to post them now.

If this trend continues this could mark a turning point in the history of this system. IMO the improved structure probably warrants an upgrade to 30% later today, assuming it holds.

We'll see. Back later.

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2503. K8eCane
Quoting presslord:


All of the above....I sat for a few years on several of the relevant Boards, committees, etc...and gave up in frustration....'hope' is the predominant strategy here...




Press...Hopefully you wont have to get dressed again anytime soon. LOLOL
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In the EPAC, Fernanda is born:

EP, 06, 2011081612, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1341W, 40, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 30, 1009, 175, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FERNANDA, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13531
Quoting Cotillion:


Is that in terms of plans in response to a potential hurricane or the response during\after a previous event?


All of the above....I sat for a few years on several of the relevant Boards, committees, etc...and gave up in frustration....'hope' is the predominant strategy here...
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2499. Grothar
Quoting msgambler:
I know during Katrina and Ivan when the local sherrif cam through the neighborhood for the mandated evac. I had to sign a waiver giving them my vital info and next of kin info before I was alowed to stay. Now that is in Alabama so I don't know how the laws are elsewhere.



Pretty much the same. The shame is that there are so many elderly and disabled people that it is either difficult or impossible for them to evacuate without assistance. Our local Red Cross started a "buddy system" in which people would register if they were incapable of evacuating on their own. Others would sign up and be responsible for bringing them to shelters or family members. Not a bad idea all in all.
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2498. angiest
Quoting USAFwxguy:
Be on the lookout for SSGTwxAF, he should have some great inputs here. I pointed him toward the blog, hope that is ok.


New blood is always good!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2497. ncstorm
Quoting presslord:


South Carolina


I am going with LA..Katrina was gut wrenching and to see those buses under water...
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Quoting presslord:


South Carolina


Is that in terms of plans in response to a potential hurricane or the response during\after a previous event?
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Morning! I see both the 00z ECMWF and 06z GFS brought doom across the Atlantic. 00z CMC & 06z NOGAPS continue to support development too.

We're starting to get that much needed consistency for development.
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2493. WxLogic
Quoting USAFwxguy:
Be on the lookout for SSGTwxAF, he should have some great inputs here. I pointed him toward the blog, hope that is ok.


That's great... we don't know it all so any additional insights to further one's understanding is greatly appreciated. :)
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2492. K8eCane
Quoting LPStormspotter:


not sure where you are. But here in Tx they have phone #'s to call if you need to leave but can't for whatever reason. Just saying!




Possibly here too....not in Floyd though that I can recall
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AL, 93, 2011081612, , BEST, 0, 138N, 654W, 25, 1010, DB
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Quoting K8eCane:



I could leave them all home and have my 11 year old son having a nervous breakdown and telling me how mean i am. But really, we dont have the funds to evacuate even one day


not sure where you are. But here in Tx they have phone #'s to call if you need to leave but can't for whatever reason. Just saying!
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Most people should have 2 or 3 evac routes just in case they need to evac.

unfortunatly down here in ornage beach gulf shores area, you are very limited to evac routes..they are working on a road as we speak but it still isn't enough for the booming population in lower bladwin county..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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