Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Cuba and Hispaniola are doing a number on the system. It seems that the SE US is the target on this run.

Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1235. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Is it time for 99 Luft Balloons?


No, please! Genug ist genug! Maybe on the night-shift. We need you around to show the "Big Picture" if you get banned, how will we know what is going on?
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1234. Levi32
Quoting robj144:


Hi Levi. The ACE just uses the maximum sustained wind speed, correct? However, if one has a large storm with a large wind field and one with a small wind field with both having the same max. wind speed, the larger wind field would have a greater integrated kinetic energy. Is there any metric that accounts for the size of the storm as well?


The "Hurricane Severity Index" consists of a 50-point scale, 25 points for max wind, and 25 points for the average radius of gale-force winds. I have never seen it used in practice. I think the ACE is limited, but in terms of discussing the level of activity thus far in the season, it is a very appropriate measure of what we have had.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
robert 93L has a LLC but slightly open

93L is expected to slow down to 10-15 kt when it nears 65W
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1231. Patrap
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Is it time for 99 Luft Balloons?


O man, I was in Bremerhaven, Germany in Spring 84 after leaving Gro in Norway..that was a Huge Hit..and yes I owned parachute pants.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Trough position seems to indicate around the SC for a possible landfall.

We'll see.

Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1229. WxLogic
You can see where 18Z GFS is going to send it:

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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Lol. Put AtHome in charge. :)


OH MA GOSH!!!lol. Then we would all be in trouble! :D
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Quoting Grothar:



I would say almost completely kaput. Stick to English. With that form of German, only the Swiss would understand it. Don't give up on 93L yet.


Is it time for 99 Luft Balloons?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11541
1225. barbamz
Quoting Grothar:



I would say almost completely kaput. Stick to English. With that form of German, only the Swiss would understand it. Don't give up on 93L yet.


Don't be so rude, Grothar! Ich kann ihn verstehen and at least enjoy.
BTW, does anybody monitor the small peace of energy left just south of south Cuba? 86W 18N. It has some convergence and divergence with ist. But probably nothing interesting.
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Looks like a system under westerly shear at 192 hours. Almost in the same location as Emily from earlier this year.

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93L starting to fire up ,will be a mess next week for US coast TX-LA
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1222. Patrap
Currently Active Tropical Cyclones
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
Quoting USAFwxguy:


Hispaniola... such an unfortunate geographical location and topography, aided none so by the deforestation that has taken place there especially in the mountains of Haiti.

I think one of the main problems that might arise here is that there are probably a few hundred thousand people in Haiti still living in tents and worse.
There is no way they can cope with big storms let alone mild to say the least hurricanes for the next year at least.
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Date with "Shredderiola"

Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1218. nigel20
Guys, just ignore "missclean" , just a troll trying to annoy us.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Wha...huh? Wait I stepped away for a minute. Did I do something while I was gone again? Whatever it is I'm sure you were right. Lol.
Lol. Put AtHome in charge. :)
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Admin take the missclean TROLL out of here. My ignore isn't working for some reason
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1214. robj144
Quoting Levi32:


All that matters to me is that 2011 is still below normal in ACE. All of these random frontal systems almost don't count. They do not reflect the activity of the tropical circulation cell. We may as well only have 3 names crossed out right now. Having 7 makes it seem far more active than it really has been, as reflected by the ACE.


Hi Levi. The ACE just uses the maximum sustained wind speed, correct? However, if one has a large storm with a large wind field and one with a small wind field with both having the same max. wind speed, the larger wind field would have a greater integrated kinetic energy. Is there any metric that accounts for the size of the storm as well?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
93L needs to slooow down if it wants to develop an LLC
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1212. Grothar
Quoting USAFwxguy:


has lost a lot of its gumption from earlier im das tag.

mein Deutsch ist schlecht und kaput, aber ich kann sprechen ein bischen.




I would say almost completely kaput. Stick to English. With that form of German, only the Swiss would understand it. Don't give up on 93L yet.
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Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
WATCH THAT ATHOMEINTX I AGREED WITH SOMEONE ON THAT SAME POINT AND SOMEONE SAID I WAS WWWWRRRRRROOOOONGGGG!!!! LOL


Wha...huh? Wait I stepped away for a minute. Did I do something while I was gone again? Whatever it is I'm sure you were right. Lol.
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1209. Patrap
Ace and Gary are on it.

Well datz a relief




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
1207. WxLogic
Not sure if we've had a situation in which we've gotten so many INVESTS that we ended up with the original number (which would still represent an active INVEST)... but would be interesting to encounter such a situation.
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1206. nigel20
With a few long tracking hurricanes, then the ACE will go up.
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1204. Grothar
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You know kid, your really pushing your luck for me not to have another rant yet.. Grothar made me cut back to 4 cups a day yesterday LOL.


Patience, Teddy. You are doing fine. Remember, stay off the soapbox. We need the wood.
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1202. Levi32
12z UKMET develops 93L briefly before moving it into the southern Yucatan. It also develops the African wave at the end of the cycle near the northern-most lesser Antilles.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
168 hours below. Looks like this time it's gonna move over Hispaņola.

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It's funny how the next invest will be 97L, but we are still talking about Invest 93L. :P
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1196. Grothar
93L

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wow every troll reminds me of REALMASTER, except with less d***s
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18z GFS develops the African wave by 138 hours.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You know kid, your really pushing your luck for me not to have another rant yet.. Grothar made me cut back to 4 cups a day yesterday LOL.


Go ahead and do another rant, the comment you made yesterday was probably the best one in WUhistory.

Over 55 pluses.
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Over the Lesser Antilles in 6 days:



A slightly better organized system on this run in comparison to the 12z run, also a little further north.
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Quoting Levi32:


All that matters to me is that 2011 is still below normal in ACE. All of these random frontal systems almost don't count. They do not reflect the activity of the tropical circulation cell. We may as well only have 3 names crossed out right now. Having 7 makes it seem far more active than it really has been, as reflected by the ACE.


ACE right now is well below normal.

Season TotalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 0.8200
Total 11.125
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1189. Levi32
Quoting Chucktown:


No I mean, would it be 97 L ? We did have 96 the other day didn't we?


Correct.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting missclean:
the middle of the atlantic is and will gobble up every storm again this year like it did last year the pattern is the exact same already


You know kid, your really pushing your luck for me not to have another rant yet.. Grothar made me cut back to 4 cups a day yesterday LOL.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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