Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:


Maybe longest-lasting, but not highest ACE.

As far as I know, Ivan holds that record.



The estimated ACE of 73.57 is the highest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.

Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
Quoting Patrap:


Big and tight..one notices dat I guess.

..having been there.

Saw Hugo's damage well inland in Boone. N.C. on my Honeymoon in 90


kinda weird these past seasons have been (yoda moment). levi hit it on the head when he mentioned the ACE. there's way too much talk of seven named storms and how that's a very active season, but the no hurricane shows you something's (pun) fishy.

btw, im in it for 93L tonight.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
"The highest ever ACE estimated for a single storm in the Atlantic is 73.6, for Hurricane San Ciriaco in 1899. This single storm had an ACE higher than many whole Atlantic storm seasons. Other Atlantic storms with high ACEs include Hurricane Ivan in 2004, with an ACE of 70.4, Hurricane Donna in 1960, with an ACE of 64.6, Hurricane Isabel in 2003 with an ACE of 63.28, and the Great Charleston Hurricane of 1893 with an ACE of 63.5."

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Quoting Vincent4989:

shut up peak of season coming


Don't worry the first big one WILL shut everyone up...
especially if its close.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1284. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I have contracted out Intellicast satellite loops to other bloggers....So we are covered.


I noticed EYES and BAHA posting them. Was going to talk to them about it, but if it has your approval, OK then.
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1283. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


1899 San Ciriaco hurricane - Lasted from August 3 to September 4.



Maybe longest-lasting, but not highest ACE.

As far as I know, Ivan holds that record.

*Edit ok....Wiki says both storms have the record...see why unofficial sources are bad news lol.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652


Holy Moly, GFS and ECMWF are almost Identical
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1281. Patrap
Quoting serialteg:


i also thought 93l reminded me of hugo when it came out.

._.


Big and tight..one notices dat I guess.

..having been there.

Saw Hugo's damage well inland in Boone. N.C. on my Honeymoon in 90
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
1280. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:


O man, I was in Bremerhaven, Germany in Spring 84 after leaving Gro in Norway..that was a Huge Hit..and yes I owned parachute pants.


Those were some good days, Pat. I went back to Rahmstein at the beginning of June. You guys left us there in the cold. Always wondered where you ended up.
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Quoting Patrap:
The "IKE" or Integrated Kinetic Energy scale along with the SSS is the best we have atm.


Surge is the Wind Driven demon,,avoid it at all cost.

Dancing Bears ,,well yer on yer own.


Methinks it was Cantore trying something new.
Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1278. nigel20
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


1899 San Ciriaco hurricane
Thanks
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hurricane Ivan 2004.


Ivan is second.

Quoting Patrap:


It was,,and we were the First U.S. Warship to have Liberty there n 19 years at the time.


...and I think the last too.

But thats another story,,

: )


Been there a little bit more recent, though still been a fair few years. More time spent in Hannover.

Quoting USAFwxguy:


Wie geht est Ihnen?

Konnen wir Englisch sprechen von jetz?


Entschuldigung?
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1276. Patrap
The "IKE" or Integrated Kinetic Energy scale along with the SSS is the best we have atm.


Surge is the Wind Driven demon,,avoid it at all cost.

Dancing Bears ,,well yer on yer own.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
1275. Levi32
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I think Integrated Kinetic Energy is the best measure for assessing tropical activity.


I had forgotten that the Hurricane Research Division was working on that. Thanks for the reminder. That would indeed be the best, as it is an actual measure of the kinetic energy involved.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting Grothar:


No, please! Genug ist genug! Maybe on the night-shift. We need you around to show the "Big Picture" if you get banned, how will we know what is going on?


I have contracted out Intellicast satellite loops to other bloggers....So we are covered.
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Quoting TheNewGuy:


Nope...

1899


Wow, you're pretty fast. I posted it and then revised it probably within 20-25 seconds.

lol.
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1272. barbamz
Quoting Grothar:


LOL. Es tut mir leid. I didn't know you were on. Looks like another interesting week in the tropics.

O.K. Forgiven. I'v got a big heart, and yes, I shouldn't be here so often, but weather in Germany is extremly boring right now. --- And I'm so sorry about the drought in Texas. Hate that and hoping for relief soon.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6013
Quoting mcluvincane:
Yes, missclean is outta here


Remember folks:

Report
Ignore
Move on
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 886
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hurricane Ivan 2004.


Nope

1899 San Ciriaco

Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
Quoting USAFwxguy:


you need to refresh, friend.

Cache is killing you.
Lol, I know the run is up to 372 hours right now. I'm just a little slower to post.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1268. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Very nice blog page Grothar!


Thanks, Geoff. It has no basis in fact. Just my humble opinion.
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Quoting Patrap:
The 12Z GFS 30 Aug Solution.

Reminds me of Gustav 08


i also thought 93l reminded me of hugo when it came out.

._.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
Dang, nevermind
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1264. Patrap
I found Mack-O at a Beer Store in Baton Rouge Gro,,for when you visit here.

We can, er,, have a meeting of Hops and Stuff.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
1263. robj144
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I think Integrated Kinetic Energy is the best measure for assessing tropical activity.


Just looked up the Integrated Kinetic Energy. I'd never heard of it until just now. That's close to what I was thinking, but a little different. Thanks.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
Yes, missclean is outta here
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
FL opening up, along with SE coast



Just check the 588 heights and that is a relatively safe guide to follow. Storm will go into the 588 break, more or less.


Our local met said the same thing tonight about the change in jet stream. Pro: End of brutal heat for SE. Con: Opens up a pathway.

Today we had a high of 85 here in central NC. Ahhhhh :)
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 886
Quoting nigel20:
What hurricane had the highest ACE?


1899 San Ciriaco hurricane - Lasted from August 3 to September 4.

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1258. Patrap
Quoting Cotillion:


Bremerhaven's a lovely place.


It was,,and we were the First U.S. Warship to have Liberty there n 19 years at the time.


...and I think the last too.

But thats another story,,

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Quoting nigel20:
What hurricane had the highest ACE?


1899 San Ciriaco.
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Im glad that these computer runs are just predictions and not written in stone, because we know from history that steering currents and the weather patterns change many times before the (storm) makes it to where its going. The reason I'm glad because several of those models have it coming in my front door and going out the back. lol ...very cautious lol...
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Thanks for the model rundowns Teddy.
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Quoting TheNewGuy:
Trough position seems to indicate around the SC for a possible landfall.

We'll see.




Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1250. robj144
Quoting Levi32:


The "Hurricane Severity Index" consists of a 50-point scale, 25 points for max wind, and 25 points for the average radius of gale-force winds. I have never seen it used in practice. I think the ACE is limited, but in terms of discussing the level of activity thus far in the season, it is a very appropriate measure of what we have had.


Thanks again. I wasn't saying it's not a good measure, I just had a curiosity. Although, it's actually pretty easy to say find calculate the total integrated energy by using the an estimate of the wind field. I wonder why no one has done this so far? If I had all the wind data plots, I'd do it.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
Florida under the gun in 264 hours. Starting to recurve.



South Carolina in for it at 288 hours:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1248. nigel20
What hurricane had the highest ACE?
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1246. Grothar
Quoting barbamz:


Don't be so rude, Grothar! Ich kann ihn verstehen and at least enjoy.
BTW, does anybody monitor the small peace of energy left just south of south Cuba? 86W 18N. It has some convergence and divergence with ist. But probably nothing interesting.


LOL. Es tut mir leid. I didn't know you were on. Looks like another interesting week in the tropics.
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Very nice blog page Grothar!
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Quoting Levi32:


The "Hurricane Severity Index" consists of a 50-point scale, 25 points for max wind, and 25 points for the average radius of gale-force winds. I have never seen it used in practice. I think the ACE is limited, but in terms of discussing the level of activity thus far in the season, it is a very appropriate measure of what we have had.
I think Integrated Kinetic Energy is the best measure for assessing tropical activity.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting Patrap:


O man, I was in Bremerhaven, Germany in Spring 84 after leaving Gro in Norway..that was a Huge Hit..and yes I owned parachute pants.


Bremerhaven's a lovely place.
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1242. WxLogic
Bermuda building from the East so looks like a coast "huger":

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For what I believe is the first time this year, we have unanimous model support on a strong cyclone developing the upcoming days.

Run down of the models.

18z GFS (Still Running) - by 138 hours out, the 18z GFS shows the most aggressive development by far, already showing a fully matured tropical depression or storm in the Eastern Caribbean. By 168 hours, the system is a strong-TS nearing hurricane status. Headed for Hispaniola, similar track to Emily but much, much stronger. This is also similar to what the early models for Don where predicting. 9XL would be ''Harvey'' in this run.

12z ECMWF - system begins to develop by 144 hours, and is much further north than the GF. By 168 hours, the system resumes a WNW track and heads towards Hispaniola. By 240 hours, the system continues to be on a WNW-NW direction and is a Category 2-3 hurricane. Of note, in 96 hours 93L becomes a Tropical depression/Storm as it nears Central America. This appears to be a very southern solution compared to the dynamical and regular models. 93L would be ''Harvey'' in this run and 9XL would be ''Irene'' in this run.

12z GGEM/CMC does not go out as far as the long range models but does show by 144 hours (end of run) that 9XL is developing into a tropical cyclone in a similar location to the ECMWF. It also develops 93L.

18z NOGAPS (still running) shows development of said system in a much earlier timeframe, by 108 hours. I generally tend to discount that solution, as I think dry air will keep our African wave in check until 55W. Also shows 93L developing but hits Central America and dissipates.

12z UKMET which is always poor at picking up cyclones shows a closed isobar by 120 hours out. Also shows a closed isobar with 93L.

General consensus is that 93L and the African wave both develop into tropical cyclones. We're finally starting to see that much needed consistency. Lets see if we manage to get it for longer, as the models have proven that they are not good this year and holding a cyclone for long.
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Looks like the trough lifts out quickly and the subtropical ridge is destined to build westward. Texas ridge moving westward. 216 hours below:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1239. Patrap
Earth Scan Laboratory GOES Night Time SST/SSH Composite Imagery and Animations

Project Director: Nan Walker

GOES night time composite imagery and animation sequences are viewable in three areas

Gulf of Mexico
Central Gulf of Mexico
And, a large area encompassing the coastal region of Central America, the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Eastern Atlantic
The thermal composites are built using the "warmest pixel" approach from a sequence of night time imagery (obtained every 30 minutes) spanning about 10 hours. The pixel size is ~ 4km in size. The GOES-8 and 13 SSTs were computed with GVAR channel 2. The SST algorithms have been developed in the ESL with RMS errors < 0.5 C. (see Walker et. al. 2003) The Sea Surface Height (SSH) data were provided by Dr. Bob Leben, University of Colarado. The project is funded by the Minerals Management Service.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.