Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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1338. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:08 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


And that is one advantage of being so old. Most of us don't have to Wiki the information. We were either there or remember it. If you want to know something about 1899, why don't you just ask me.


LOL!

Don't think of yourself like that! :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
1337. Patrap
11:08 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Hey Gro,,check out the short timer here in Tromso,,Mack-O beer,,iso-toners, Painters cap,,bandana,Frozen Pizza' under da rack.

Life in a GP tent on Permafrost.

I felt almost Alaskan for a spell

Tromso,Nato TeamWork 84
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
1336. Cotillion
11:08 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


See I looked at their tracks and Ciriaco never passed Cat 3 if I'm seeing the Wiki colors right. Ivan spent a ton of time as Cat 4 and Cat 5, which made me question the ACE values, but I don't care enough to go calculate it by hand lol. I suspect they counted Ciriaco's wind speeds while it was extratropical as well.


It was a Cat 4.

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1335. PcolaDan
11:08 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting txjac:


Spent time in Celle ..absolutely beautiful ...loved the countryside. Want to come back!


Headed back to Hesse next year. :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1334. Grothar
11:07 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


99% of the stuff you find on Wikipedia is correct.


And that is one advantage of being so old. Most of us don't have to Wiki the information. We were either there or remember it. If you want to know something about 1899, why don't you just ask me.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26441
1333. LowerCal
11:07 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Not really if you're in Windows.

I can do it in 5 seconds in Linux, but unless you use that, I can't really help you. The methods I know of in Windows require 10 minutes of work at least.


I'm using Linux. :^)
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9187
1332. HurricaneDean07
11:07 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Bahahurrican,
No season is normal, and this one is at the top of the list...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1331. nigel20
11:07 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


See I looked at their tracks and Ciriaco never passed Cat 3 if I'm seeing the Wiki colors right. Ivan spent a ton of time as Cat 4 and Cat 5, which made me question the ACE values, but I don't care enough to go calculate it by hand lol. I suspect they counted Ciriaco's wind speeds while it was extratropical as well.
Thank you.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8133
1330. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:07 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Another storm should be coming in the Eastern Pacific soon...TD #6E will probably become Fernanda, which means this:



will probably become Greg.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
1329. ElConando
11:06 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
I liked looked at past seasons in the 1800s and seeing those storms that only had its landfall point tracked and no lat/lon points.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3757
1328. TheNewGuy
11:06 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
SHIP RI chart

Something to keep an eye on IF this develops

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1327. ncstorm
11:06 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
So NC back in the crossfires again per the GFS? next run it will be out to sea..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15664
1326. BahaHurican
11:06 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


ACE right now is well below normal.

Season TotalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Operational 1.8425
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 0.8200
Total 11.125
Mainly because we would have had at least one hurricane by now, and likely a fairly long-lived one at that.

This is not acting like a normal season... yet.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22307
1325. PlazaRed
11:06 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


99% of the stuff you find on Wikipedia is correct.

There are intellectuals and there are the masses,
The intellectuals have knowledge, the masses have, Wikipedia,
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2092
1324. Levi32
11:06 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting nigel20:

Was it because Hurricane Ivan spent 33 consecutive hours as a cat 4 or higher?


See I looked at their tracks and Ciriaco never passed Cat 3 if I'm seeing the Wiki colors right. Ivan spent a ton of time as Cat 4 and Cat 5, which made me question the ACE values, but I don't care enough to go calculate it by hand lol. I suspect they counted Ciriaco's wind speeds while it was extratropical as well.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
1323. scott39
11:05 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Is 93L growing in size?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
1322. Levi32
11:04 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting LowerCal:
Anyone have a quick and simple method for obtaining a NOAA SSD rgb loop as an animated GIF?


Not really if you're in Windows.

I can do it in 5 seconds in Linux, but unless you use that, I can't really help you. The methods I know of in Windows require 10 minutes of work at least.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
1321. HurricaneDean07
11:04 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
See Levi's Definition ^ of ACE, hes the expert...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1320. Patrap
11:04 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
ESL by LSU GOES-13 Low Cloud Still 93L



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
1319. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:04 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
1318. islander101010
11:04 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
kind of like floyd
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4723
1317. scott39
11:04 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting violet312s:
Okay, have to ask, what is ACE?
It can be an 11 or 1 in blackjack.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
1316. bigwes6844
11:04 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Hawaii may get a miss but they should always remember this:Link
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2639
1315. Cotillion
11:03 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting violet312s:
Okay, have to ask, what is ACE?


Accumulated cyclone energy.

Calculating ACE
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1314. robj144
11:03 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Np. Glad I could help. Assessing a hurricane's destructive capacity has always been an interest of mine. I've spent many hours trying to come up with new ways of scaling hurricanes as well. If anyone is curious I would gladly share with you some of my ideas thus far as I have created an algorithm of my own. Feel free to pm me for more information.


I was just fooling around with an equation to find a different version of the integrated kinetic energy based on the wind field alone. It's very easy to implement if one assumes the wind distribution for each storm is just about the same. Then all one would need is the size of the entire wind field and the max. wind as the only two parameters. I think this would give a better approximation of the total energy. It could also be made more accurate if one accounts for different wind distributions for each storm and also the evolution of the wind field. However, that would require some programming.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
1313. TheNewGuy
11:03 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting violet312s:
Okay, have to ask, what is ACE?


Accumulated Cyclone Energy.
Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1312. stormhank
11:03 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
My guess when the season started was that Irene would be the worst storm..I hope Im wrong though.
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
1311. Grothar
11:03 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting barbamz:

Cold?? In June? O.K. it's not Florida, but it's not that bad over here!


No, Pat & I were in Northern Norway in the Spring of 1984, then back to Germany
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26441
1310. HurricaneDean07
11:03 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Violet312,
Ace is
Accumulated. Cyclone. Energy.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1309. nigel20
11:03 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Maybe longest-lasting, but not highest ACE.

As far as I know, Ivan holds that record.

*Edit ok....Wiki says both storms have the record...see why unofficial sources are bad news lol.


Was it because Hurricane Ivan spent 33 consecutive hours as a cat 4 or higher?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8133
1308. Levi32
11:02 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting violet312s:
Okay, have to ask, what is ACE?


Accumulated Cyclone Energy. It is calculated by squaring the maximum wind speed (in knots) of a tropical cyclone for every 6-hour increment that those wind speeds are recorded, and then summing up all of those values for the storm's lifetime.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
1307. LowerCal
11:02 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Anyone have a quick and simple method for obtaining a NOAA SSD rgb loop as an animated GIF?
Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 9187
1306. MiamiHurricanes09
11:02 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol, it was in 1899, give it a break!
And that's exactly why I'm not confident in saying that it has the most ACE ever recorded in the Atlantic, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1305. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:02 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting Levi32:


Hey it's easy and all that, but if I had a grudge against TropicalAnalyst I could go in and change the Ciriaco record right now...


Yes, but there is this thing on there called the watchlist that thousands of people have on theirs, so if it is changed, and false information is added, it can be reverted almost immediately.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
1304. Patrap
11:01 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting Grothar:


Those were some good days, Pat. I went back to Rahmstein at the beginning of June. You guys left us there in the cold. Always wondered where you ended up.


We went back to the USS Raliegh LPD-1,,then back down to Portsmouth,UK for Washdown of Vehicles,as we couldnt go back into the Contienet with Nowegian Soil on our Transit Vehicles.

WTH for they never did tell my NCO lil butt.

Washdown was a week. Then across ther Channel to Germany,,the good side back then,,then down to Rotterdam and then them er,,Long Nights in Amsterdam.

So yeah it was er,, "ruff".

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128632
1303. violet312s
11:01 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Okay, have to ask, what is ACE?
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 886
1302. Cotillion
11:01 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Actually:

If you want to properly answer the poster's question, then San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899 may not be the highest hurricane in terms of ACE.

Look to the East Pacific. Ioke and John may have been higher.

-- Actually, John was nowhere close, hehe. Ioke has the most ACE ever for a tropical cyclone, I think, but some of that was as a typhoon.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1301. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:01 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ivan had a total ACE of 70.38 whereas the 1899 San Ciraco hurricane had an ACE of 73.57.

I question the reliability of that however, since it is possible that once the cyclone turned extratropical that it never turned tropical again. As well as the intensity that it had between the time it affected Puerto Rico and North Carolina.


lol, it was in 1899, give it a break!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


99% of the stuff you find on Wikipedia is correct.

ROFL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1299. txjac
Quoting barbamz:

Cold?? In June? O.K. it's not Florida, but it's not that bad over here!


Spent time in Celle ..absolutely beautiful ...loved the countryside. Want to come back!
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2538
1298. Levi32
Quoting TheNewGuy:


As do I. It's the quickest to grab info from though.

Quite a bit of bloggers on here tend to Wiki lol





Hey it's easy and all that, but if I had a grudge against TropicalAnalyst I could go in and change the Ciriaco record right now...
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


99% of the stuff you find on Wikipedia is correct.
Tell that to any college prof when trying to find sources for term papers. They will laugh you out of the room.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Maybe longest-lasting, but not highest ACE.

As far as I know, Ivan holds that record.

Ivan had a total ACE of 70.38 whereas the 1899 San Ciraco hurricane had an ACE of 73.57.

I question the reliability of that however, since it is possible that once the cyclone turned extratropical that it never turned tropical again. As well as the intensity that it had between the time it affected Puerto Rico and North Carolina.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:


I hate Wiki....that's all I have to say.


As do I. It's the quickest to grab info from though.

Quite a bit of bloggers on here tend to Wiki lol



Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
Quoting Levi32:


I hate Wiki....that's all I have to say. I also hate google search engine keywords.


99% of the stuff you find on Wikipedia is correct.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
1293. barbamz
Quoting Grothar:


Those were some good days, Pat. I went back to Rahmstein at the beginning of June. You guys left us there in the cold. Always wondered where you ended up.

Cold?? In June? O.K. it's not Florida, but it's not that bad over here!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Maybe longest-lasting, but not highest ACE.

As far as I know, Ivan holds that record.



The 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane had an ACE of 73.57
Ivan had an ACE of 70.38.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
1291. Levi32
Quoting TheNewGuy:


The estimated ACE of 73.57 is the highest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.



I hate Wiki....that's all I have to say. I also hate google search engine keywords.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting Cotillion:
"The highest ever ACE estimated for a single storm in the Atlantic is 73.6, for Hurricane San Ciriaco in 1899. This single storm had an ACE higher than many whole Atlantic storm seasons. Other Atlantic storms with high ACEs include Hurricane Ivan in 2004, with an ACE of 70.4, Hurricane Donna in 1960, with an ACE of 64.6, Hurricane Isabel in 2003 with an ACE of 63.28, and the Great Charleston Hurricane of 1893 with an ACE of 63.5."



you learn about san ciriaco in puerto rico in first grade!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


Just looked up the Integrated Kinetic Energy. I'd never heard of it until just now. That's close to what I was thinking, but a little different. Thanks.
Np. Glad I could help. Assessing a hurricane's destructive capacity has always been an interest of mine. I've spent many hours trying to come up with new ways of scaling hurricanes as well. If anyone is curious I would gladly share with you some of my ideas thus far as I have created an algorithm of my own. Feel free to pm me for more information.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Maybe longest-lasting, but not highest ACE.

As far as I know, Ivan holds that record.



The estimated ACE of 73.57 is the highest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.

Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.