Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Pretty cool simulated MW imagery from the HWRF

Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
Have not seen it mentioned as nothing will probably come of it but this little area just south of eastern cuba looks interesting

Link
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Invest Chart for both EPAC & ATL:
ATL~

Rd 1: 90L: Bust, 91L: Bust, 92L: Bust, 93L: Bust, 94L: Bust, 95L: Arlene, 96L: Bust, 97L: Bust, 98L: Bret, 99L: Cindy

Rd 2: 90L: Don, 91L: Emily, 92L: Bust, 93L: Possible Harvey, 94L: Gert, 95L: Franklin, 96L: Bust


EPAC~

Rd: 90E: Bust, 91E: Adrian, 92E: Beatriz, 93E: Calvin, 94E: Dora, 95E: Eugene, 96E: Bust, 97E: Bust, 98E: Fernanda, 99E: Possible Greg,



thanks for that
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1385. ncstorm
Quoting Nolehead:
evening everyone..is anyone noticing that little spin just below Cuba?? The remants of Emily I think..just wondering cause didn't the models show something firing up from the remants??


the NOGAPS is still developing it
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Looks like Gert cleared Bermuda (good for them) and 93L is the one to watch over the next 3 days.
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1383. Patrap
Anyone seeing those 4 big Cells off the Se Fla Coast this evening?



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Quoting Nolehead:
evening everyone..is anyone noticing that little spin just below Cuba?? The remants of Emily I think..just wondering cause didn't the models show something firing up from the remants??

the remnants of emily are in east europe right now.
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Quoting Patrap:
Come the weekend.

We may have to open the Wu Contra Blog Flow.



Contraflow is as scary as it is surreal.
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Looking at loops, Gert seems to have expanded in size since this morning.
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evening everyone..is anyone noticing that little spin just below Cuba?? The remants of Emily I think..just wondering cause didn't the models show something firing up from the remants??
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Quoting Grothar:


I noticed EYES and BAHA posting them. Was going to talk to them about it, but if it has your approval, OK then.
Hey! I was prolly posting Intellicast almost immediately after Geof!!! I'm no newbie to Intellicast!

Quoting TheNewGuy:


The estimated ACE of 73.57 is the highest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.

This San Ciriaco track is the historical track I dread. It keeps whatever storm is on it over the waters with really good TCHP, plus it brings the "dirty" side right up the Bahamas chain in such a way that it would devastate every major island in the country. On top of that, the eye passes up the Tongue of the Ocean between Andros and New Providence, which means Nassau would experience the longest possible passage of the worst side of the eyewall, and simultaneously water supplies from Andros would likely be completely disrupted.

I'll have to dig about to see what kind of damage it did here in 1899, but a storm of similar strength and track would be massively devastating to this island chain.

The worrisome thing for me is this is the kind of track multiple models have developed multiple times from multiple systems.... potentially.

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1377. Levi32
Quoting LowerCal:

Double woot! I didn't want to reinvent the wheel. I'll owe you big time.


You have mail. I have no idea how experienced you are with linux so I tried to include detailed instructions. It takes me 10 seconds to do it, so if it's difficult at first to give the correct inputs, just practice a couple times and I think you will find that it's pretty easy. Perhaps you will find a way to make my script even simpler than I currently have it. I'm fairly new to BASH.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting Patrap:


I rarely comment on NHC percentages,,if ever, but Im gonna say 93L the past 6 hrs has put some good work into bulding a better Haus,and a lil less into convection, and say we shall see 30% at the 8pm.

Structure sometimes preculdes convective cycles in the formative stage as 93L is undergoing.


Needless to say I totally agree though convection is not as strong, it has expanded in size and organized significantly since this morning in my opinion.
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1375. GetReal
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Quoting TheNewGuy:
That's for 93L.


Very Interesting... Though development into harvey wont occur for another 48 hours or a little more

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Quoting sunlinepr:


GFS for now keeps placing it over PR... though thats many hours away...





ive probably told you this before (because im an old ranting fart) but, stay away from the models

:P

use them only for entertainment purposes
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
Quoting Patrap:


I rarely comment on NHC percentages,,if ever, but Im gonna say 93L the past 6 hrs has put some good work into bulding a better Haus,and a lil less into convection, and say we shall see 30% at the 8pm.

Structure sometimes preculdes convective cycles in the formative stage as 93L is undergoing.


yeah those nhc percentages i mostly ignore, like models
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
1371. Patrap
Quoting stormpetrol:
Will 93L get the 30% I think it deserves at 7pm CST , let's see?


I rarely comment on NHC percentages,,if ever, but Im gonna say 93L the past 6 hrs has put some good work into bulding a better Haus,and a lil less into convection, and say we shall see 30% at the 8pm.

Structure sometimes preculdes convective cycles in the formative stage as 93L is undergoing.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
I would say 13.7N/61W is the possible COC of 93LLink
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1369. ncstorm
18Z NOGAPS..east coast potentials..

Link
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Invest Chart for both EPAC & ATL:
ATL~

Rd 1: 90L: Bust, 91L: Bust, 92L: Bust, 93L: Bust, 94L: Bust, 95L: Arlene, 96L: Bust, 97L: Bust, 98L: Bret, 99L: Cindy

Rd 2: 90L: Don, 91L: Emily, 92L: Bust, 93L: Possible Harvey, 94L: Gert, 95L: Franklin, 96L: Bust


EPAC~

Rd: 90E: Bust, 91E: Adrian, 92E: Beatriz, 93E: Calvin, 94E: Dora, 95E: Eugene, 96E: Bust, 97E: Bust, 98E: Fernanda, 99E: Possible Greg,
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Sounds like a Charley like track.

Is this from 93L or the wave that just came off of Africa?
African wave. The GFS has been showing no interest in developing 93L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
...GERT SKIRTS BERMUDA... from advisory 8.

Har Har, that rhymes. Ok back on topic.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Will 93L get the 30% I think it deserves at 7pm CST , let's see?




whats see
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Florida under the gun in 264 hours. Starting to recurve.



South Carolina in for it at 288 hours:



Sounds like a Charley like track.

Is this from 93L or the wave that just came off of Africa?
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Will 93L get the 30% I think it deserves at 7pm CST , let's see?
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Quoting serialteg:


that triangle wave in africa is the weirdest shape wave ive ever seen

O_o


GFS for now keeps placing it over PR... though thats many hours away...



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1361. barbamz
Quoting PcolaDan:


Headed back to Hesse next year. :)

Sometimes I think, nearly *everyone* on this blog has some personal experience with Germany, lol. Nice ...
Now I'm heading to the pillows, nite all, have fun with 93L.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6013
Quoting txjac:


Lucky you ...enjoy yourself ...when I go back I want to go to Baden ...that is where my dad's familiy is from and I'm at a standstill point in the family tree

The Germans have records that go way back. Barbamz would know better. They, like the French, have these huge old dusty books with records in them.
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1359. Patrap
Come the weekend.

We may have to open the Wu Contra Blog Flow.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
today to sept 15th is cv season after that date i believe its rare to affect the conus
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Big African wave keeping strong for the moment.... Will it die like the other waves? Something to keep an eye on....





that triangle wave in africa is the weirdest shape wave ive ever seen

O_o
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
Quoting Levi32:
A more colorful and telling comparison:

Ciriaco spent exactly 11 days as a major hurricane. Ivan did also, with the exception of three 6-hour increments where he was a Cat 2. Ciriaco spent a short time as a Cat 4, while Ivan was a Cat 4 or Cat 5 for the majority of his lifetime.

Ciriaco:



Ivan:



My grandfather used to tell stories about how he survived Ciriaco... How the Sugar cane central was blown apart... and the days they spent without food and work...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1355. robj144
I'm grabbing a bite, but I'll back in a few.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
Quoting Levi32:


Woot. Let me boot into mine and I'll get you a copy of my script for it.

Double woot! I didn't want to reinvent the wheel. I'll owe you big time.
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1353. txjac
Quoting sunlinepr:


That is huge
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2538
Quoting Levi32:


Accumulated Cyclone Energy. It is calculated by squaring the maximum wind speed (in knots) of a tropical cyclone for every 6-hour increment that those wind speeds are recorded, and then summing up all of those values for the storm's lifetime.


Thanks for the great explanation :) I feel smarter already!
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 886
1351. robj144
So, just doing an extremely rough calculation, if one factors in the size of the wind field into the ACE, integrated ACE would depend on the size of the storm cubed. So, if one storm had wind field radius of hurricane winds that was twice the radius of another storm, but they both had the same max. winds, the larger storm has something on the order of 8 times more energy. This was very crude calculation that could be refined and made more sophisticated, however.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 825
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Quoting TheNewGuy:


What storm is that RI probability for?
Gert, TD6E?


That's for 93L.
Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
Big African wave keeping strong for the moment.... Will it die like the other waves? Something to keep an eye on....



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Quoting TheNewGuy:


What storm is that RI probability for?
Gert, TD6E?
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1346. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:


And that is one advantage of being so old. Most of us don't have to Wiki the information. We were either there or remember it. If you want to know something about 1899, why don't you just ask me.



I bet Presslord would like to Know what happend in the "Carolina Colony" with Grothar in 1710 I believe it was.

They still fuming up dere from that ya know Grothar.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Quoting TheNewGuy:
SHIP RI chart

Something to keep an eye on IF this develops

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%)




is that for 93L if so ouch
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1343. txjac
Quoting PcolaDan:


Headed back to Hesse next year. :)


Lucky you ...enjoy yourself ...when I go back I want to go to Baden ...that is where my dad's familiy is from and I'm at a standstill point in the family tree
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2538
1342. hcubed
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Is it time for 99 Luft Balloons?


Wait - we're up to 99L(uft) Balloons already?
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1341. Levi32
Quoting LowerCal:


I'm using Linux. :^)


Woot. Let me boot into mine and I'll get you a copy of my script for it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
ok guys let the betting and poll comence

at the 8pm TWO what will 93L be

A.(yellow-20/30%)
B.(orange-30/40%)
C.(orange-40/50%)
D.(red----50/60%)

I say orange 30/40%(B)
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1339. Levi32
A more colorful and telling comparison:

Ciriaco spent exactly 11 days as a major hurricane. Ivan did also, with the exception of three 6-hour increments where he was a Cat 2. Ciriaco spent a short time as a Cat 4, while Ivan was a Cat 4 or Cat 5 for the majority of his lifetime.

Ciriaco:



Ivan:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting Grothar:


And that is one advantage of being so old. Most of us don't have to Wiki the information. We were either there or remember it. If you want to know something about 1899, why don't you just ask me.


LOL!

Don't think of yourself like that! :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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