Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Time to go...........Good Night Folks... :)
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Quoting missclean:
FAR SOUTH MEXICO WILL GET 93 IF IT EVEN DEVELOPS
Their's a thing about caps 'round here.People will mistake you for being someone your not.
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Can someone post the GFS model showing NOLA getting hit by a strong storm (93L) i cant seem to find that update of the model.
Quoting P451:


Freak snowfall is a product of Global Warming. Just as the freak snowfall in Chile last month was also a product of Global Warming.

New York's heavy rainfall from this recent September like system? Global Warming.

New York's heavy winter snowfall? Global Warming.

Central NJ's three foot blizzard (which I had the honor of being a part of)? Global Warming.

Texas Drought? Global Warming.

Warm SSTs? Global Warming.
Cold SSTs? Global Warming.

El Nino? Global Warming.
La Nina? Global Warming.

Weak vort systems in the Atlantic? Global Warming.

GFS hitting NOLA with 93L as a Cat 5 in 360 hours? Global Warming.


Every weather event you see happening in the world be it yesterday, today, tomorrow, or wishcasted by a model is a direct product of Global Warming.


Neapolitan will tell ya, just ask him.
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I wish that when someone on here would send us mail we'll here the words "You got mail".Like the old fat computers.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


not looking great, accelerating out to sea, not much to talk about.
I think it still has a small window off opportunity to pull off being our first hurricane.It's only got a few hours though.
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Quoting txwxnut2:
Has anyone noticed the vortex located across southern Cuba - That little system has some spin -


posted about it a little earlier
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Quoting robj144:


As I said, ACE is a good and simple estimate. However, a cat. 5 hurricane with a 50 mile hurricane wind radius is a different animal than a cat. 5 hurricane storm with a 150 mile wind radius. I'm just puzzled why the size isn't factored in... at least crudely.
You have mail.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

I never gave a damn about him in the first place. Maybe in the next 6 years.
Maybe the next twelve?.Lol.Will this blog even be around then?.Will half of the bloggers even be on here?.
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Has anyone noticed the vortex located across southern Cuba - That little system has some spin -
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Have people forgotten about poor lil 'ol Gert?


not looking great, accelerating out to sea, not much to talk about.
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472. Cotillion 5:02 PM PDT on August 15, 2011 +0 Hide this comment.
In taedium, veritas.

From Wunderground's own estimates via HURDAT on San Ciriaco:



next time a link would be better that post was a litte long
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
1475. Patrap
There was a Gert?


***_____****-------------------------> ;)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
1473. robj144
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Exactly it would only be a rough estimate compared to a more precise recon estimate. Although, often times by the time a system is a hurricane it is within the reach of recon. It could definitely be done as the NHC already issues the radius of 34 knot, 50 knot and 64 knot winds in every advisory. However, apparently NOAA feels ACE is a good enough estimate of tropical cyclone activity.


As I said, ACE is a good and simple estimate. However, a cat. 5 hurricane with a 50 mile hurricane wind radius is a different animal than a cat. 5 hurricane storm with a 150 mile wind radius. I'm just puzzled why the size isn't factored in... at least crudely.
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In taedium, veritas.

From Wunderground's own estimates via HURDAT on San Ciriaco:

San Ciriaco ACE:
0803 40mph 0.1225
50mph 0.2025 (0.325)
60mph 0.2500 (0.575)
65mph 0.3025 (0.8775)
0804 70mph 0.3600 (1.2375)
70mph 0.3600 (1.5975)
70mph 0.3600 (1.9575)
70mph 0.3600 (2.3175)
0805 70mph 0.3600 (2.6775)
70mph 0.3600 (3.0375)
70mph 0.3600 (3.3975)
75mph 0.4225 (3.82)
0806 80mph 0.4900 (4.31)
85mph 0.5625 (4.8725)
90mph 0.6400 (5.5125)
105mph 0.8100 (6.3225)
0807 115mph 1 (7.3225)
125mph 1.2100 (8.5325)
140mph 1.4400 (9.9725)
150mph 1.6900 (11.6625)
0808 150mph 1.6900 (13.3525)
145mph 1.5625 (14.915)
140mph 1.4400 (16.355)
120mph 1.1025 (17.4575)
0809 120mph 1.1025 (18.56)
120mph 1.1025 (19.6625)
120mph 1.1025 (20.765)
120mph 1.1025 (21.8675)
0810 120mph 1.1025 (22.97)
120mph 1.1025 (24.0725)
120mph 1.1025 (25.175)
120mph 1.1025 (26.2775)
0811 120mph 1.1025 (27.38)
120mph 1.1025 (28.4825)
120mph 1.1025 (29.585)
120mph 1.1025 (30.6875)
0812 120mph 1.1025 (31.79)
120mph 1.1025 (32.8925)
120mph 1.1025 (33.995)
120mph 1.1025 (35.0975)
0813 120mph 1.1025 (36.2)
120mph 1.1025 (37.3025)
120mph 1.1025 (38.405)
120mph 1.1025 (39.5075)
0814 120mph 1.1025 (40.61)
120mph 1.1025 (41.7125)
120mph 1.1025 (42.815)
120mph 1.1025 (43.9175)
0815 120mph 1.1025 (45.02)
120mph 1.1025 (46.1225)
120mph 1.1025 (47.225)
120mph 1.1025 (48.3275)
0816 120mph 1.1025 (49.43)
120mph 1.1025 (50.5325)
120mph 1.1025 (51.635)
120mph 1.1025 (52.7375)
0817 120mph 1.1025 (53.84)
120mph 1.1025 (54.9425)
120mph 1.1025 (56.045)
120mph 1.1025 (57.1475)
0818 120mph 1.1025 (58.25)
105mph 0.8100 (59.06)
90mph 0.6400 (59.7)
85mph 0.5625 (60.2625)
0819 85mph 0.5625 (60.825)
80mph 0.4900 (61.315)
80mph 0.4900 (61.805)
80mph 0.4900 (62.295)
0820 80mph 0.4900 (62.785)
80mph 0.4900 (63.275)
80mph 0.4900 (63.765)
80mph 0.4900 (64.255)
0821 80mph 0.4900 (64.745)
80mph 0.4900 (65.235)
80mph 0.4900 (65.725)
75mph 0.4225 (66.1475)
-- extratropical? Subtropical?
0826 45mph 0.1600 (66.3075)
45mph 0.1600 (66.4675)
45mph 0.1600 (66.6275)
45mph 0.1600 (66.7875)
0827 45mph 0.1600 (66.9475)
45mph 0.1600 (67.1075)
45mph 0.1600 (67.2675)
45mph 0.1600 (67.4275)
0828 45mph 0.1600 (67.5875)
45mph 0.1600 (67.7475)
45mph 0.1600 (67.9075)
45mph 0.1600 (68.0675)
0829 45mph 0.1600 (68.2275)
45mph 0.1600 (68.3875)
45mph 0.1600 (68.5475)
45mph 0.1600 (68.7075)
0830 45mph 0.1600 (68.8675)
45mph 0.1600 (69.0275)
45mph 0.1600 (69.1875)
45mph 0.1600 (69.3475)
0831 45mph 0.1600 (69.5075)
45mph 0.1600 (69.6675)
45mph 0.1600 (69.8275)
45mph 0.1600 (69.9875)
0901 45mph 0.1600 (70.1475)
45mph 0.1600 (70.3075)
45mph 0.1600 (70.4675)
45mph 0.1600 (70.6275)
0902 50mph - 0.2025 (70.83)
60mph 0. 2500 (71.08)
65mph 0.3025 (71.3825)
70mph 0.3600 (71.7425)
0903 75mph 0.4225 (72.165)
80mph 0.4900 (72.655)
80mph 0.4900 (73.145)
75mph 0.4225 (73.5675)


Final ACE: 73.5675

Of course, no storm would be like this in the present. No fluctuations in intensity caused by changing environment or eyewall replacement cycles.

(Unless, it had the mother of all annular eyes...)

We'll never know for sure, but it's still an impressive series of statistics.

If anything's wrong, shout. :)
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Have people forgotten about poor lil 'ol Gert?
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Will this be the season for plenty weak systems that recurve? Will CONUS take a hit? Will MJO stir up trouble soon? Will the casters get their wish? Stay tuned. The pundits are ready!
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Quoting robj144:


Actually, how do the satellites estimate the wind speeds? What about all the floaters? That would give a rough estimate of the wind field.
Exactly it would only be a rough estimate compared to a more precise recon estimate. Although, often times by the time a system is a hurricane it is within the reach of recon. It could definitely be done as the NHC already issues the radius of 34 knot, 50 knot and 64 knot winds in every advisory. However, apparently NOAA feels ACE is a good enough estimate of tropical cyclone activity.
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Quoting Patrap:
I dont recall Apollo 18

huh,,but the trailer iz purty cool.


I bet Neil and Gene and few others are Heavy sighing.




APOLLO 18 OFFICIAL SECOND TRAILER



I like how they got the props right, such as the LEM and the USSR LK Lander, and the Cosmonaut suit was accurate to what the soviets announced in 1989 when they finally came clean on their lunar program to what it looks like. Way better than that Michael Bay dung anyways (Bay blew up Discovery in transformers and Atlantis in Armageddon.. sheesh, he had to blow one up right before the shuttle ended.)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
robert 93L has a LLC but slightly open

93L is expected to slow down to 10-15 kt when it nears 65W


If it slows down it might have enough time to develop...but it is nowhere near having a LLC.
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.....
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Quoting P451:


Freak snowfall is a product of Global Warming. Just as the freak snowfall in Chile last month was also a product of Global Warming.

New York's heavy rainfall from this recent September like system? Global Warming.

New York's heavy winter snowfall? Global Warming.

Central NJ's three foot blizzard (which I had the honor of being a part of)? Global Warming.

Texas Drought? Global Warming.

Warm SSTs? Global Warming.
Cold SSTs? Global Warming.

El Nino? Global Warming.
La Nina? Global Warming.

Weak vort systems in the Atlantic? Global Warming.

GFS hitting NOLA with 93L as a Cat 5 in 360 hours? Global Warming.


Every weather event you see happening in the world be it yesterday, today, tomorrow, or wishcasted by a model is a direct product of Global Warming.


Neapolitan will tell ya, just ask him.


+100000000000

oh and your post was sponsored by Global Warning lol
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1463. robj144
Quoting Levi32:


Well the whole cubed thing may have something to do with the changing size of the wind radii in a typical stronger hurricane, which may nudge it away from just a square function. The mass is changing too, which changes kinetic energy. I have not read up much on the PDI though.

No it doesn't seem like the ACE would be hard to change, but I'm afraid that at the top levels of just about any agency, changing anything from a standard is very difficult.


I agree, but NOAA doesn't have to change it. You, for example or someone else, could calculate it and put it on a blog and see if it gets any attention.
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Quoting P451:


Freak snowfall is a product of Global Warming. Just as the freak snowfall in Chile last month was also a product of Global Warming.

New York's heavy rainfall from this recent September like system? Global Warming.

New York's heavy winter snowfall? Global Warming.

Central NJ's three foot blizzard (which I had the honor of being a part of)? Global Warming.

Texas Drought? Global Warming.

Warm SSTs? Global Warming.
Cold SSTs? Global Warming.

El Nino? Global Warming.
La Nina? Global Warming.

Weak vort systems in the Atlantic? Global Warming.

GFS hitting NOLA with 93L as a Cat 5 in 360 hours? Global Warming.


Every weather event you see happening in the world be it yesterday, today, tomorrow, or wishcasted by a model is a direct product of Global Warming.


Neapolitan will tell ya, just ask him.


Please take this GW discussion to the Global Warming blog if you're going to continue.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Meanwhile in the Eastern Pacific...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1655 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED AND SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Quoting lottotexas:
93 would have to gain some latitude to feed of the sweet spots.


There is enough TCHP to support a major hurricane from 70W without any gain in latitude.
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1458. robj144
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I think the best explanation is because with recon data, it is difficult to accurately determine the radius of hurricane force winds, TS force winds, etc. Satellite data can only give us so much...


Actually, how do the satellites estimate the wind speeds? What about all the floaters? That would give a rough estimate of the wind field.
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Quoting Patrap:
Ooooooooh weeeee,

The Western Carribean is the Sweet Spot downstream.

Lawdy,Lawd,Lawd,,,,


Stop showing that DOOM AND GLOOM image.Awwwwwww.
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The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph.

This is interesting , looks like the same low !! Hey Tim Slav'n :)
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
Entering the tropical doldrums of the Eastern Caribbean, 20% is a good call I think. Especially since the 48 hour caveat.

Beyond that, assuming healthy appearance and model support in the interim, you'll see them bump that.


based on how the models have performed this year, I dont think any system really needs model support
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Meanwhile in the Eastern Pacific...
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Quoting Patrap:
Ooooooooh weeeee,

The Western Carribean is the Sweet Spot downstream.

Lawdy,Lawd,Lawd,,,,


93 would have to gain some latitude to feed of the sweet spots.
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1452. Patrap
I dont recall Apollo 18

huh,,but the trailer iz purty cool.


I bet Neil and Gene and few others are Heavy sighing.




APOLLO 18 OFFICIAL SECOND TRAILER
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting Levi32:
A more colorful and telling comparison:

Ciriaco spent exactly 11 days as a major hurricane. Ivan did also, with the exception of three 6-hour increments where he was a Cat 2. Ciriaco spent a short time as a Cat 4, while Ivan was a Cat 4 or Cat 5 for the majority of his lifetime.

Ciriaco:



Ivan:

All good points. Nevertheless, San Ciriaco was a storm as many as 10 days longer than Ivan. It also had quite a number of those days at hurricane strength.

Somebody else commented about the extratropical phase, but it seems the second hurricane phase was actually one of the few documented instances of a hurricane strike on the Azores.

Pretty interesting storm.
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1450. Levi32
Quoting robj144:


Strictly speaking, the kinetic energy is the velocity squared as you know. Using a different power of velocity, is just giving some arbitrary assignment in the difference between a cat. 1 and a cat. 5 say. To me, the ACE is fine, but the size of the storm must also be included. Since the ACE is so crude, why can't they at least modify so it is the product of the max. velocity squared and the average radius of the hurricane strength wind field squared? That's not hard to change.


Well the whole cubed thing may have something to do with the changing size of the wind radii in a typical stronger hurricane, which may nudge it away from just a square function. The mass is changing too, which changes kinetic energy. I have not read up much on the PDI though.

No it doesn't seem like the ACE would be hard to change, but I'm afraid that at the top levels of just about any agency, changing anything from a standard is very difficult.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Quoting robj144:


Strictly speaking, the kinetic energy is the velocity squared as you know. Using a different power of velocity, is just giving some arbitrary assignment in the difference between a cat. 1 and a cat. 5 say. To me, the ACE is fine, but the size of the storm must also be included. Since the ACE is so crude, why can't they at least modify so it is the product of the max. velocity squared and the average radius of the hurricane strength wind field squared? That's not hard to change.
I think the best explanation is because without recon data, it is difficult to accurately determine the radius of hurricane force winds, TS force winds, etc. Satellite data can only give us so much...

Also, averaging the radius implies there are no asymmetries, which is often not the case.
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I don't know the statistics or if any research paper has been written on the "speed" issue but the norm formation speed on waves-to TD's or Storms is usually 10-12 MPH. Any faster and there are problems with consolidation and we have seen many fall apart when convection pulls ahead (or is sheered ahead) of a viable COC tying to get vertically stacked.....15-20 MPH for 93L at the moment is just too fast for significant development.
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Quoting Patrap:
Ooooooooh weeeee,

The Western Carribean is the Sweet Spot downstream.

Lawdy,Lawd,Lawd,,,,




I dont like that circle around Grand Cayman though Lol
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East pacific outlook:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1655 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED AND SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
You nailed it, and I really suspect that's why the % stayed the same.


By any objective standard 20% is the right number.

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1444. hcubed
Quoting barbamz:

Sometimes I think, nearly *everyone* on this blog has some personal experience with Germany, lol. Nice ...
Now I'm heading to the pillows, nite all, have fun with 93L.


Was stationed in Wiesbaden for 4 years (at what was Lindsey Air Station) back in the late 70's/early 80's.

Best day trip was to drive up the Rhine to St Goar/St Gorhausen, and down the other side (stopping off to take a side trip to the top of The Lorelei).

Beautiful country.
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1443. Patrap
Ooooooooh weeeee,

The Western Carribean is the Sweet Spot downstream.

Lawdy,Lawd,Lawd,,,,


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Will be interesting when recon goes out tomorrow….If warranted.
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Lovely weather in New Zeleand, ya know global warming.

Freak snowfall has NZ reeling
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Quoting tropicfreak:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 152338
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME AND PRESSURES ARE NOT
FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Only at 20%? Really?





they said the same thing from the 2pm two so there not relly a point in posting the two they said the same thing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
1439. robj144
Quoting Levi32:


It quantitatively changes it though. It means that a Cat 4 counts for even more points over a Cat 3 than the ACE would have given it. I guess there is a debate over which exponential function describes the power best.


Strictly speaking, the kinetic energy is the velocity squared as you know. Using a different power of velocity, is just giving some arbitrary assignment in the difference between a cat. 1 and a cat. 5 say. To me, the ACE is fine, but the size of the storm must also be included. Since the ACE is so crude, why can't they at least modify so it is the product of the max. velocity squared and the average radius of the hurricane strength wind field squared? That's not hard to change.
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1438. Levi32
Quoting LowerCal:

Thank you so much. The instructions are comprehensive but brief and straightforward as is the script. You'd make a good Prof.

I'll be sure to send you a copy of changes, if any, I make for my purposes.


Glad it works! I forgot to mention that you have to have curl and imagemagick installed for it to work, but I think a lot of distributions carry those by default.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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