Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting USAFwxguy:


I think perhaps the issue from the "other side" is the idea that maybe the warming itself is part of the natural cycle, rather than directly attributable to the human behavior, etc.

The cause of the weather events may very well be the warming, but the cause of the warming remains at issue. Stipulating to the warming for arguments sake.

There are definitely those on the "other side" who are certain that the planet is not warming. To such people, every thermometer on earth is poorly placed, glaciers and polar ice aren't melting, and the climate is no different now than it was a decade ago, or two, or three...

Now, it's true that among the public, even those who agree that the planet is warming can't necessarily agree with each other as to just why that warming is taking place. But there's really no disagreement among climate scientists as to just why it is: an increase on GHGs from our burning of fossil fuels is the primary culprit.
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Strong Thunderstorms West of St. Croix.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
Quoting FrankZapper:
There ain't one.
Actully there is lol. Someone posted it!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Reading back old advisories, anyone know what happened to AFWA satellite estimates and the FSU superensemble?


Don't know about AFWA but they still use the FSU superensemble. They show it's performance in the yearly verification reports, it's normally one of the better performing models.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
still cant believe this!


Oh Boy! Here we go!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


12Z GFS shows it

its posted below, but its not 93L


maybe you should look at things before you blast people like that


The TX/LA border isnt New Orleans
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1527. robj144
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


RAMBB has a KE graph for cyclones on their Currently Active Tropical Cyclones page. Select a storm and it will be at the bottom right. They could improve by providing the value and also a cumulative value.


Thanks, I appreciate that link. But what KE is this? Is it what they use for ACE, is it an integrated quantity? Just curious if you know.
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1526. scott39
93L looks like its spreading a moisture blanket out for itself.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6730
Quoting FrankZapper:
There ain't one, spaceboy.


12Z GFS shows it

its posted below, but its not 93L


maybe you should look at things before you blast people like that
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1524. bappit
Quoting bigwes6844:
still cant believe this!

Hmmmmmm, fifteen days out. Why should you believe it?
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Quoting bigwes6844:
still cant believe this!


Looks like Gilbert...



Its tropical storm-force winds measured 588 mi (946 km) in diameter
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9693
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Thanks for calculating all that. Apparently it does win the ACE award.


No problem, nice for it to be appreciated.

Yes, with ACE, while it can be the case that very intense storms can racket up large amounts in a short space of time, strong tropical storms can really add a fair amount if they last a considerable time.

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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9693
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Can someone post the GFS model showing NOLA getting hit by a strong storm (93L) i cant seem to find that update of the model.
There ain't one.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is that a...



CDO? yes
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still cant believe this!
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2517
Quoting USAFwxguy:


I think perhaps the issue from the "other side" is the idea that maybe the warming itself is part of the natural cycle, rather than directly attributable to the human behavior, etc.

The cause of the weather events may very well be the warming, but the cause of the warming remains at issue. Stipulating to the warming for arguments sake.


No its the fact that no matter what the weather event is, no matter where it is. It will be blamed on global warming even if they contradict themselves. Logic says that global warming (if it is occurring) will cause either more or less storms, not both and you cant use both as examples of the same problem.
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Quoting PRweathercenter:
sorry about that, i wonder what causes that?

Could be if you embedded something in HTML the endquotes were not closed or something!!?? I dunno!!! Started using Firefox and its working fine
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 566
Is that a...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
Reading back old advisories, anyone know what happened to AFWA satellite estimates and the FSU superensemble?
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Quoting robj144:


As I said, ACE is a good and simple estimate. However, a cat. 5 hurricane with a 50 mile hurricane wind radius is a different animal than a cat. 5 hurricane storm with a 150 mile wind radius. I'm just puzzled why the size isn't factored in... at least crudely.


RAMBB has a KE graph for cyclones on their Currently Active Tropical Cyclones page. Select a storm and it will be at the bottom right. They could improve by providing the value and also a cumulative value.
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For whoever was asking for GFS 12Z run of hurricane hitting NOLA!!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 566
Quoting missclean:
forcast for 93l next 3 days
5pm - moving west
8pm - fizzled out
11pm - back again
2am - heading south towards south america
5 am - fizzled out again
8am - geting more organized and heading towards florida
11am - trough comming turning 93 out to sea
2pm - fizzled out agaim
5 pm now misses the trough and heading to new orleans
8pm - back to just a weak tropical wave
11pm - 93 is back gaining strenghth and should hit mexico
2am - ut oh dry african dust torn it apart again
5am - redevolping 93 and heading to nova scotia


My forecast for you next three days:

Oh wait...There isn't one. You know why? Because you'll be banned tonight or tomorrow!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
Quoting missclean:
we need to watch 93 very very closely as it could hit anywhere from south america all the way to nova scotia check for a different landfall every 4 hours as this track will definetly chage every 4 hours over the next 7 days


if it keeps spreading it will cover all that area.... ;-)
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9693
Quoting sunlinepr:
Look like trade winds are destroying 93L. If it keeps spreading all over the Caribbean, it will vanish...



The trade winds are the lowest they have been for any system in the Caribbean so far - at or under 15 knots.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31430
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
I believe # 1465 is messing up the blog for us IE users i cant post anymore and all content after that post is embedded in the post! Please remove it!!!
sorry about that, i wonder what causes that?
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Look like trade winds are destroying 93L. If it keeps spreading all over the Caribbean, it will vanish...

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9693
Quoting missclean:
forcast for 93l next 3 days
5pm - moving west
8pm - fizzled out
11pm - back again
2am - heading south towards south america
5 am - fizzled out again
8am - geting more organized and heading towards florida
11am - trough comming turning 93 out to sea
2pm - fizzled out agaim
5 pm now misses the trough and heading to new orleans
8pm - back to just a weak tropical wave
11pm - 93 is back gaining strenghth and should hit mexico
2am - ut oh dry african dust torn it apart again
5am - redevolping 93 and heading to nova scotia


You don't get out much do you?
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1500. usa777
I wonder which post messed up the blog?
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Caribbean Storm Update August 15th 2011
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Quoting P451:


Freak snowfall is a product of Global Warming. Just as the freak snowfall in Chile last month was also a product of Global Warming.

New York's heavy rainfall from this recent September like system? Global Warming.

New York's heavy winter snowfall? Global Warming.

Central NJ's three foot blizzard (which I had the honor of being a part of)? Global Warming.

Texas Drought? Global Warming.

Warm SSTs? Global Warming.
Cold SSTs? Global Warming.

El Nino? Global Warming.
La Nina? Global Warming.

Weak vort systems in the Atlantic? Global Warming.

GFS hitting NOLA with 93L as a Cat 5 in 360 hours? Global Warming.


Every weather event you see happening in the world be it yesterday, today, tomorrow, or wishcasted by a model is a direct product of Global Warming.


Neapolitan will tell ya, just ask him.

No, I won't tell you that; only someone unfamiliar with the basics of climate science would. But by the same token, only someone unfamiliar with the basics of climate science would try to tell you with certainty that none of the extreme weather events we see occurring increasing in frequency and severity are anything more than mere coincidence or just all part of normal natural cycles. For several decades, climate scientists have been describing the things we could expect to see in a warming climate. And now, we're seeing those things. Know what I mean, Vern?
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ok, I'm trying this again...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb. html
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Quoting Cotillion:


It's not off a website.
Thanks for calculating all that. Apparently it does win the ACE award.
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Quoting missclean:
93 IS BACK TO FALLING APART NO SURPRISE LOOKS MORE LIKE JUST A BAG WAVE
ummm is that who i think it is....
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1492. Patrap
Quoting CybrTeddy:



I like how they got the props right, such as the LEM and the USSR LK Lander, and the Cosmonaut suit was accurate to what the soviets announced in 1989 when they finally came clean on their lunar program to what it looks like. Way better than that Michael Bay dung anyways (Bay blew up Discovery in transformers and Atlantis in Armageddon.. sheesh, he had to blow one up right before the shuttle ended.)



They did a good job with the Sets in 18 seems..true dat.


A couiple of wu Bloggers could have done better job than Bay on both those easily.

For Half the money.
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I believe # 1465 is messing up the blog for us IE users i cant post anymore and all content after that post is embedded in the post! Please remove it!!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 566
Quoting Tazmanian:
472. Cotillion 5:02 PM PDT on August 15, 2011 +0 Hide this comment.
In taedium, veritas.

From Wunderground's own estimates via HURDAT on San Ciriaco:



next time a link would be better that post was a litte long


It's not off a website.
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.ht ml
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Time to go...........Good Night Folks... :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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