Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

Share this Blog
20
+

Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1588 - 1538

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53Blog Index

2300Z ASCAT Winds......shWIIIIsh.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wxmanwannabe, I think in hindsight the single issue that we're going to find which has been impacting formation of TCs from Twaves is going to be that same forward speed due to the strength of the high. I mean, we had systems forming under a 1036 high which was centred N of the Azores yet large enough to have a footprint across the Nrn Antilles. I have a feeling when we see a storm that doesn't come flying through the mid-ATL, we'll start to see more consolidation that leads to TC formation.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22735
Has press seen the 18 Z GFS yet?

Looks like so:


;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1585. fishcop
bye bye misclean. what was her problem?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i see someone left the trolldoor open >_>
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey missclean, you'll probably suffer the same fate don did earlier this season when it hit tx
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
If it's fantasy, PLEASE don't post it. My grandma lurks here, and that will upset her.

Are you kidding me have we become so "politically correct" that we cant even post long range model forecast's for tropical cyclones? SHEEESH!!! (WEEPS AND GNASHES TEETH OVER THE ABSURDITY OF IT)
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
Quoting FrankZapper:
If it's fantasy, PLEASE don't post it. My grandma lurks here, and that will upset her.


lol there would be like 5 posts here an hour if we did what you said lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AL, 93, 2011081600, , BEST, 0, 136N, 613W, 25, 1010, DB,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1575. Patrap
The ATCF Frame is loaded,,save for the plot Lines.

Wheres the markers?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Hurricanes101:


No one said it was accurate, someone just posted it and commented on it

Guess that is a crime nowadays; we have gotten so over the "wishcasting" that no one is even allowed to post anything related to the tropics that is beyond 5 days.
If it's fantasy, PLEASE don't post it. My grandma lurks here, and that will upset her.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1571. fishcop
Watching 93 in Grand Cayman
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1570. SLU


054

WHXX01 KWBC 160033

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0033 UTC TUE AUG 16 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE GERT (AL072011) 20110816 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110816 0000 110816 1200 110817 0000 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 33.9N 62.2W 37.3N 59.8W 40.5N 55.3W 43.1N 49.5W

BAMD 33.9N 62.2W 36.9N 60.9W 40.6N 57.6W 44.6N 51.5W

BAMM 33.9N 62.2W 37.3N 60.3W 40.9N 56.2W 44.2N 49.9W

LBAR 33.9N 62.2W 36.9N 60.4W 40.1N 57.6W 43.3N 53.4W

SHIP 50KTS 48KTS 46KTS 46KTS

DSHP 50KTS 48KTS 46KTS 46KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110818 0000 110819 0000 110820 0000 110821 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 44.8N 42.5W 46.3N 27.9W 47.3N 16.0W 51.9N 4.8W

BAMD 48.1N 41.7W 51.3N 19.5W 51.9N 2.3W 50.4N 11.8E

BAMM 46.8N 41.1W 48.5N 22.3W 48.4N 9.3W 51.8N 2.2E

LBAR 45.9N 46.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 41KTS 27KTS 15KTS 0KTS

DSHP 41KTS 27KTS 15KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 33.9N LONCUR = 62.2W DIRCUR = 25DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 31.5N LONM12 = 63.3W DIRM12 = 11DEG SPDM12 = 11KT

LATM24 = 29.6N LONM24 = 63.2W

WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 50KT

CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 20NM



$$

NNNN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L hits 80 kJ in 20-24 hrs followed by tomorrow's (Wed's) D-Max. THAT could be interesting!!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
This track... Could 93L or the wave off Africa follow it?
would be a good rainmaker for parts of Texas as long as it stayed below cat2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1565. txjac
Quoting twincomanche:
I need someone to explain this to me. I was led to believe that if enough people - people they would be cut off. I can't believe that everyone hasn't minused you know who yet these posts keep appearing. Can someone help me out here?


I think that many are igoring and not -'ing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's Jaimito Fuma Veneno....

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
No imminent threats...Thats a good thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1561. Drakoen
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Reading back old advisories, anyone know what happened to AFWA satellite estimates and the FSU superensemble?


FSU sold the commercial rights to Weather Predict
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1558. HCW
Latest 93L model runs from the NHC

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1557. robj144
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link


Thanks a lot. So someone has taken into account the size of the hurricane. The equation they use to calculate KE is exactly what I wrote down a little while ago on the sheet of paper in front of me, except I approximated as 2-D as opposed to 3-D.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is Missclean a mix of an average troll and jasons caps? BTW i already have her on ignore.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
How many days out is that "forecast"? Greater than 10 days for something that doesn't exist? When did forecasting get that accurate?


No one said it was accurate, no one was hoping it would happen and no one was freaking out about it; someone just posted it and commented on it

Guess that is a crime nowadays; we have gotten so over the "wishcasting" that no one is even allowed to post anything related to the tropics that is beyond 5 days without getting scrutinized.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FrankZapper:
How many days out is that "forecast"? Greater than 10 days for something that doesn't exist? When did forecasting get that accurate?
Today actully lol. I never said i believed in it i just wanted to know if that run even existed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This track... Could 93L or the wave off Africa follow it?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Hurricanes101:


12Z GFS shows it

its posted below, but its not 93L


maybe you should look at things before you blast people like that
How many days out is that "forecast"? Greater than 10 days for something that doesn't exist? When did forecasting get that accurate?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


look again, looks to be in between the TX/LA border and NO; which means onshore flow in NO

granted its a long way out though, but he shouldnt talk to people that way anyway


Id be relieved if I lived in La, since it shows it now you know that that's not going to happen. haha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

There are definitely those on the "other side" who are certain that the planet is not warming. To such people, every thermometer on earth is poorly placed, glaciers and polar ice aren't melting, and the climate is no different now than it was a decade ago, or two, or three...

Now, it's true that among the public, even those who agree that the planet is warming can't necessarily agree with each other as to just why that warming is taking place. But there's really no disagreement among climate scientists as to just why it is: an increase on GHGs from our burning of fossil fuels is the primary culprit.

Hey guys you know we have a climate change blog!! You guys could rule there!!
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 57 Comments: 572
Looks like 93L is drying out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Strong Thunderstorms West of St. Croix.


A lot of dying convection
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



ouch
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting robj144:


Thanks, I appreciate that link. But what KE is this? Is it what they use for ACE, is it an integrated quantity? Just curious if you know.


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


The TX/LA border isnt New Orleans


look again, looks to be in between the TX/LA border and NO; which means onshore flow in NO

granted its a long way out though, but he shouldnt talk to people that way anyway
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1540. tc1120
That long pink blob to the east of NYC went directly over my town Long Beach for several hours yesterday. Rain started at 130am on Saturday night and by 830am Sunday morning 10.2 inches of rain had fallen and my basement was under 2 feet of water after the water starting rushing through the foundation and doors. That was the most rain I've ever seen come down within such a short period of time. I thought the 25+ inches of rain we saw in Wilmington last September (from Nicole I believe) was alot, but that took almost half a week. If the rain kept falling for more than two days at the rate we saw last night, we probably would have seen 30+ inches of rain. It was incredible. Luckily, the sun came out today for 6 hours and we haven't seen rain in 18 hours so the ground is at least losing some water.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sunlinepr:


Looks like Gilbert...



Its tropical storm-force winds measured 588 mi (946 km) in diameter
was that in 1988?
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751
Quoting USAFwxguy:


I think perhaps the issue from the "other side" is the idea that maybe the warming itself is part of the natural cycle, rather than directly attributable to the human behavior, etc.

The cause of the weather events may very well be the warming, but the cause of the warming remains at issue. Stipulating to the warming for arguments sake.

There are definitely those on the "other side" who are certain that the planet is not warming. To such people, every thermometer on earth is poorly placed, glaciers and polar ice aren't melting, and the climate is no different now than it was a decade ago, or two, or three...

Now, it's true that among the public, even those who agree that the planet is warming can't necessarily agree with each other as to just why that warming is taking place. But there's really no disagreement among climate scientists as to just why it is: an increase on GHGs from our burning of fossil fuels is the primary culprit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1588 - 1538

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
38 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron