Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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1638. angiest

Quoting JGreco:


ugh...:0...That's around where Ivan landed and we know what that did to the Pensacola-Fort Walton Beach area:0
Except the center of the storm on this particular run made landfall much closer to, Morgan City or a little west of there.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good evening everyone.The temps outside this evening are just Heavenly.I wish it was here to stay but I know it wont.SO how is 93L doing this evening?TIA


Try beating 71F here in VA.Absolutely gorgeous.

93L not doing too bad. It's developing a low level circulation, and has really gotten its act together, wouldn't surprise me if we see a TD by mid week.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
You may not like that Neap. brought up "the subject", but lets not attack him please ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
1635. JGreco
Quoting atmoaggie:
To the east, it looked more like Mobile. Big.


ugh...:0...That's around where Ivan landed and we know what that did to the Pensacola-Fort Walton Beach area:0
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I also don't see any mention of GW in the good Dr's Blog!
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As of 00Z, 93L's 850mb vorticity decreased slightly, while the 700mb stayed relatively the same, and the 500mb vorticity really ramped up. Seems like it has worked its way up and is well established at the mid-levels. From this point of view, it is as well organized as it has ever been. I'm thinking another convective burst will get the lower-levels going again and perhaps we will then see an LLC try and spin up. This process will most likely wait until around 70W.
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1632. BDADUDE
Quoting bigwes6844:
still cant believe this!
You dont really believe that do you??
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Levi, la Nina almost here earlier than forecasted by the ENSO models? What do you think of the -0.5C at Nino 3.4 that CPC has in this week's update?

Link
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Yeah, I know that. But we also have a blog entry today that talked about more than tropical weather, so I guess we choose to rule here, as well!!
Whats with your trollish behavior?

I don't see a crown on your head!
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Quoting SLU:


Very much so for a system that doesn't even have a surface low yet ....


and if I am recalling correctly, SHIPS has not gone overboard this year like it has in years past

so it is something to notice
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Good evening everyone.The temps outside this evening are just Heavenly.I wish it was here to stay but I know it wont.SO how is 93L doing this evening?TIA
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I don't like S shaped waves....

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
1626. SLU
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Ships seems to like 93L


Very much so for a system that doesn't even have a surface low yet ....
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
Quoting ncstorm:
that's showing 1-1.5 in. in my part of Texas. More than I've had in the past 2 months.
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i think 93L low may be refroming at 16N 60W


13N seem too low
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
1623. Patrap






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
See ya later guys!!!
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Quoting Levi32:
93L is essentially back to a thunderstorm-less state, but the burst today has shown that the upper-level environment supports the easy formation of an anticyclone above the system, which means that any other convective bursts that may follow will add to the structure aloft and have no issues with shearing. Dry air and surface divergence in the central-eastern Caribbean are the big struggles for 93L right now. Conditions may become much more favorable in the western Caribbean in a few days.

Levi,

It looked to me that 93L was spreading its moisture field out enough to hold the dry air back.

No?
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Yeah, I know that. But we also have a blog entry today that talked about more than tropical weather, so I guess we choose to rule here, as well!!


I think you just proved our point

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If you look hard you can find a model for every situation.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
Quoting angiest:

I think the windfield stretches from Houston to MS.
To the east, it looked more like Mobile. Big.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i think 93L low may be refroming at 16N 60W


13N seem too low
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting rv1pop:
Microsoft writers keep putting code
Stopped reading right there...

And thought, "FAIL".
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Yeah, I know that. But we also have a blog entry today that talked about more than tropical weather, so I guess we choose to rule here, as well!!

I am sorry i didnt realize that the 1 day record rainfall in NYC proved beyond the shadow of a doubt the GW theory!!! (Softly tiptoes through the tulips)
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1611. fishcop
is it drying up?

Quoting Grothar:
img src="">
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Quoting SLU:
15 miles WSW of St. Lucia.



214

WHXX01 KWBC 160037

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0037 UTC TUE AUG 16 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110816 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110816 0000 110816 1200 110817 0000 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.6N 61.3W 14.1N 64.6W 15.1N 68.0W 16.1N 71.4W

BAMD 13.6N 61.3W 13.9N 64.5W 14.5N 67.7W 15.2N 70.6W

BAMM 13.6N 61.3W 14.0N 64.4W 14.7N 67.5W 15.5N 70.5W

LBAR 13.6N 61.3W 14.0N 65.1W 14.5N 68.8W 15.2N 72.7W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110818 0000 110819 0000 110820 0000 110821 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.2N 74.7W 19.1N 80.7W 20.7N 85.3W 22.3N 89.6W

BAMD 15.9N 73.4W 17.3N 78.2W 18.3N 82.3W 18.7N 86.4W

BAMM 16.5N 73.4W 18.2N 78.6W 19.8N 83.1W 20.9N 87.5W

LBAR 15.9N 76.2W 17.2N 82.1W 16.4N 85.9W .0N .0W

SHIP 57KTS 76KTS 86KTS 92KTS

DSHP 57KTS 71KTS 81KTS 71KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 61.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 57.3W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 52.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN



Ships seems to like 93L
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1609. angiest

Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
For whoever was asking for GFS 12Z run of hurricane hitting NOLA!!!
I think the windfield stretches from Houston to MS.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Jaimito was Eliminated, vanished.... keep blogin...
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9882
1607. Patrap
SHIPS Intensity to 92Kts downstream.

Not alotta change there...eyeballing 18Z
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yeah, I know that. But we also have a blog entry today that talked about more than tropical weather, so I guess we choose to rule here, as well!!
Um, yeah, a one-day record rainfall.

No mention of this other, OT, subject matter better suited for that other blog.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
AL, 93, 2011081600, , BEST, 0, 136N, 613W, 25, 1010, DB,



i think 93L low may be refroming at 16N 60W


13N seem too low
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yeah, I know that. But we also have a blog entry today that talked about more than tropical weather, so I guess we choose to rule here, as well!!
We know the causes. Give us plausible solutions!
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1603. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


What was with the random Drak quote which made no sense before you edited your post lol.


?
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1602. rv1pop
Quoting PRweathercenter:
sorry about that, i wonder what causes that?
Microsoft writers keep putting code that should be protected at unprotected addresses to keep their junque propitiatory. When graphics code overflows into program code, the programs lock up or crash. Firefox seems to protect addresses as it loads.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
AL, 93, 2011081600, , BEST, 0, 136N, 613W, 25, 1010, DB,
Its about time. It was getting weird up in here.I know you will get this blog back on topic.
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1600. ncstorm
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Thanks Nrt and Drak for the feedback.

SAB not too impressed with Gert:

15/2315 UTC 34.1N 61.8W T1.5/2.5 GERT

TAFB up at T3.5:

AL, 07, 201108152345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 3340N, 6270W, , 3, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, MN, I, 5, 3535 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, AODT RAW 2.6 @ 2245Z
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1598. SLU
15 miles WSW of St. Lucia.



214

WHXX01 KWBC 160037

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0037 UTC TUE AUG 16 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110816 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110816 0000 110816 1200 110817 0000 110817 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.6N 61.3W 14.1N 64.6W 15.1N 68.0W 16.1N 71.4W

BAMD 13.6N 61.3W 13.9N 64.5W 14.5N 67.7W 15.2N 70.6W

BAMM 13.6N 61.3W 14.0N 64.4W 14.7N 67.5W 15.5N 70.5W

LBAR 13.6N 61.3W 14.0N 65.1W 14.5N 68.8W 15.2N 72.7W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 37KTS 46KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110818 0000 110819 0000 110820 0000 110821 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.2N 74.7W 19.1N 80.7W 20.7N 85.3W 22.3N 89.6W

BAMD 15.9N 73.4W 17.3N 78.2W 18.3N 82.3W 18.7N 86.4W

BAMM 16.5N 73.4W 18.2N 78.6W 19.8N 83.1W 20.9N 87.5W

LBAR 15.9N 76.2W 17.2N 82.1W 16.4N 85.9W .0N .0W

SHIP 57KTS 76KTS 86KTS 92KTS

DSHP 57KTS 71KTS 81KTS 71KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 61.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 20KT

LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 57.3W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 52.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
Q: Will Invest 93L develop into a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean?

A. Yes
B. No
C. There is a good chance
D. Chances aren't looking so hot


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
1596. Grothar
img src="">
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

Hey guys you know we have a climate change blog!! You guys could rule there!!

Yeah, I know that. But we also have a blog entry today that talked about more than tropical weather, so I guess we choose to rule here, as well!!
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Quoting FrankZapper:
Granny just reached for the nitroglycerine. Calm down granny.


lol poor Granny
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1593. Levi32
Quoting Patrap:
The ATCF Frame is loaded,,save for the plot Lines.

Wheres the markers?



What was with the random Drak quote which made no sense before you edited your post lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1592. USCGLT
Quoting Patrap:
Hey Gro,,check out the short timer here in Tromso,,Mack-O beer,,iso-toners, Painters cap,,bandana,Frozen Pizza' under da rack.

Life in a GP tent on Permafrost.

I felt almost Alaskan for a spell

Tromso,Nato TeamWork 84


You looked like you were living large man...nice "stache'...you needed a haircut
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1591. Patrap
oooooch-ie,,the Carolina Colony gets nailed there padna's..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129780
1590. Levi32
93L is essentially back to a thunderstorm-less state, but the burst today has shown that the upper-level environment supports the easy formation of an anticyclone above the system, which means that any other convective bursts that may follow will add to the structure aloft and have no issues with shearing. Dry air and surface divergence in the central-eastern Caribbean are the big struggles for 93L right now. Conditions may become much more favorable in the western Caribbean in a few days.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Hurricanes101:


lol there would be like 5 posts here an hour if we did what you said lol
Granny just reached for the nitroglycerine. Calm down granny.
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2300Z ASCAT Winds......shWIIIIsh.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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