Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting mrsalagranny:
You are right about conseuences.And I hope Texas will get sweet rekief soon.I pray them every night that they will get rain very soon.


Some areas here in VA are abnormally dry, but we never got above a moderate drought here, but we got several storms, some of them were slow moving. Now the Richmond area is now near normal, about 2-3" below normal which isn't too bad.

We don't need another Isabel and Gaston(2004, caused flooding rains across the metro area, we got 10" in like 3 hours!)
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting Tazmanian:



i think 93L low may be refroming at 16N 60W


13N seem too low
Taz, you are starting to quote yourself lately. That is unfortunately reminiscent of, well, I won't mention his name...
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Quoting FrankZapper:
It might wipe out the entire Gulf Coast!?


Can I stay with you should this happen? ;)

(Of course, it will not, just saying)
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1684. angiest

Quoting tropicfreak:


Well at least it has characteristics that Emily never had, 93L is well stacked and Emily really never was.
Emily wasn't stacked but Harvey may be? Hmmm...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting tropicfreak:


Rewards come with consequences.

Along with a late summer cooldown comes with the threat of tropical storms or hurricanes, which is a consequence to most, but not to those in Texas, hope they get a large weak TS.
You are right about conseuences.And I hope Texas will get sweet rekief soon.I pray them every night that they will get rain very soon.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Not like that. 12 Z GFS showed a big hurricane making landfall in central to west LA with the wind field extending all the way to Mobile.
It might wipe out the entire Gulf Coast!?
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Oh that is my kind of weather.To stay on course I hope everyone is well prepared for th meat of the season.


Rewards come with consequences.

Along with a late summer cooldown comes with the threat of tropical storms or hurricanes, which is a consequence to most, but not to those in Texas, hope they get a large weak TS.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting twincomanche:
Downcaster Central here.....I just don't see this developing and hitting the CONUS.


It has a better chance of striking the US then anything else has had this year. Dry air is going to prevent development in the eastern or central Atlantic, which lessens the prospects for recurvature.

Granted, I'm not necessarily anticipating development from this, but if it DOES develop, it certainly warrants concern.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I think probably tomorrow 93L will slow down a bit, though convection is not as strong , structurally this storm is much more organized than even a few hours ago.

Look at 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb vorticity.


Well at least it has characteristics that Emily never had, 93L is well stacked and Emily really never was.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting tropicfreak:


If we do bottom out in the 60s here, then it would be the 5th time this summer that that has happened.
Oh that is my kind of weather.To stay on course I hope everyone is well prepared for th meat of the season.
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I think probably tomorrow 93L will slow down a bit, though convection is not as strong , structurally this storm is much more organized than even a few hours ago.

Look at 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb vorticity.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Oh that is wonderful hope you enjoy it.


If we do bottom out in the 60s here, then it would be the 5th time this summer that that has happened.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting tropicfreak:


Humidity is a little high here, but not really noticeable with the lower 70/upper 60 degree temps.
Oh that is wonderful hope you enjoy it.
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Quoting angiest:

Don't worry, in that run landfall was in south central or SW Louisiana.  The wind field is just huuuuuge. ;)


Ahem, think I might object to that landfall. *S* I'd love the rain, but not the wind.
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Quoting angiest:

Don't worry, in that run landfall was in south central or SW Louisiana.  The wind field is just huuuuuge. ;)
I hope it is a minimal tropical storm and the folks in Tx and wherever else needs the rain gets a good soaking from it.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
81.1 degrees with low humidity.It just feels so good outdoors.Especially with the winds blowing.Definately not as nice as your weather.


Humidity is a little high here, but not really noticeable with the lower 70/upper 60 degree temps.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting bigwes6844:
thats what i said too because that would be crazy and katrina anniversary would be the day before.


And just a day shy of Gustav's.

In all seriousness though Wes, the GFS has had widely different solutions with this potential system for the last three cycles. This goes to show the fragility of the synoptic pattern during that time.

In short, it could end up anywhere, if it even develops. Right now, it's just a newly-emerged tropical wave sitting smack dab in the eastern Atlantic. We have plenty of time to watch it.

Although I will say, the 10-15 day GFS has been consistent in breaking down that Texas ridge for nearly a week at this point. Even if the northern portion of the state maintains some degree of ridging (which the model suggests is possible), there are indications that the Gulf might be opening itself up to a whole slew of new possibilities.
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Taz you need to rip 93l again like last night and then pay another 100.000 hospital bill and it will be fine lol...
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Quoting Patrap:
Brass Tacks in..,


well, Aluminum maybe..


00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




went SOUTH
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1664. angiest

Quoting mrsalagranny:
I agree with you Scott.Please leave Mobile out of that picture.I know it is too early to tell.But I sure dont want nothing coming my way.
Don't worry, in that run landfall was in south central or SW Louisiana.  The wind field is just huuuuuge. ;)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting tropicfreak:


Yep, it certainly caught some by surprise, but I knew it was going to come back, I had faith in it. :) Let's hope it doesn't do too much damage, but with hot waters ahead, I don't know.

BTW what is your current temperature.
81.1 degrees with low humidity.It just feels so good outdoors.Especially with the winds blowing.Definately not as nice as your weather.
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Quoting TheNewGuy:


The most likely area of development is in the Western Caribbean.

Doesn't have too much time until it runs into mexico.


Time isn't a problem for rapid intensification.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting NJ2S:


Thats scary....but still way way to far out to tell....no?

avid follower(hate the term lurker), i comment from time to time
thats what i said too because that would be crazy and katrina anniversary would be the day before.
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2751
1660. Patrap
Brass Tacks in..,


well, Aluminum maybe..


00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93 Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Hey! Leave Mobile out of this. LOL
I agree with you Scott.Please leave Mobile out of that picture.I know it is too early to tell.But I sure dont want nothing coming my way.
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1658. NJ2S
Quoting bigwes6844:
still cant believe this!


Thats scary....but still way way to far out to tell....no?

avid follower(hate the term lurker), i comment from time to time
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1657. Patrap
.."Riding to, Amarillo, my Invest, Pony and me"..
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Quoting TheNewGuy:


The most likely area of development is in the Western Caribbean.

Doesn't have too much time until it runs into mexico.

Tell that to Richard...
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16/0000 UTC 12.1N 132.6W T1.5/2.5 98E -- East Pacific
15/2315 UTC 34.1N 61.8W T1.5/2.5 GERT -- Atlantic
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Thank you Tropicfreak.Was wondering how it did last night.Just as Levi said a couple of days ago we at take our eyes of this one.


Yep, it certainly caught some by surprise, but I knew it was going to come back, I had faith in it. :) Let's hope it doesn't do too much damage, but with hot waters ahead, I don't know.

BTW what is your current temperature.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Rapid Intensification...


The most likely area of development is in the Western Caribbean.

Doesn't have too much time until it runs into mexico.
Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
Quoting tropicfreak:


Try beating 71F here in VA.Absolutely gorgeous.

93L not doing too bad. It's developing a low level circulation, and has really gotten its act together, wouldn't surprise me if we see a TD by mid week.
Thank you Tropicfreak.Was wondering how it did last night.Just as Levi said a couple of days ago we at take our eyes of this one.
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1649. scott39
Levi, Is 93L going to miss the weakness to the N, even if it developes quickly?
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Quoting TheNewGuy:
DSHP brings 93L up to about 85 knots before landfall. LGEM is even more intense at 101 knots.


I highly doubt it's gets going quick enough to reach that.


Rapid Intensification...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting scott39:
what is that....a peanut??

LOL
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1646. scott39
Quoting atmoaggie:
Not like that. 12 Z GFS showed a big hurricane making landfall in central to west LA with the wind field extending all the way to Mobile.
Hey! Leave Mobile out of this. LOL
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DSHP brings 93L up to about 85 knots before landfall. LGEM is even more intense at 101 knots.


I highly doubt it's gets going quick enough to reach that.
Member Since: July 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
1644. scott39
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Eye?
what is that....a peanut??
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1643. Levi32
Quoting scooster67:

Levi,

It looked to me that 93L was spreading its moisture field out enough to hold the dry air back.

No?


The convective activity helped the moisture field grow a little bit today, yes. There is still a lot of dry air ahead of it though. We will see if it can overcome that.
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Eye?
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Quoting JGreco:


ugh...:0...That's around where Ivan landed and we know what that did to the Pensacola-Fort Walton Beach area:0
Not like that. 12 Z GFS showed a big hurricane making landfall in central to west LA with the wind field extending all the way to Mobile.
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1639. Patrap
Global View

Note the West Pac Volume compared to the Atlantic.


Dats a Big ol Pond.

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1638. angiest

Quoting JGreco:


ugh...:0...That's around where Ivan landed and we know what that did to the Pensacola-Fort Walton Beach area:0
Except the center of the storm on this particular run made landfall much closer to, Morgan City or a little west of there.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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