Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



That would be an east coast strike with the ridging to the North.


Indeed. Trough lifting out and a bridging high to the north.

Pretty impressive model consensus for development.

06Z GFS track
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I see that Dallas was hot again this morning (on its way to another 100 plus day). From 1898 up until three weeks ago, Dallas had never seen a morning as warm as 86 degrees. It only dipped to that point this morning, the fourth time it's done so
Ugh, that's miserable.

I had family come in from a 10 hour drive from the NNW and comment on our much cooler weather. (Tulsa's had a bad, hot summer, too.)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting USAFwxguy:


Doesn't all that stored bottle water have a shelf life?


Water not exposed to light will last years, the gallons come in thick cardboard cases. Worst case in a few years I'll water my garden with them and refill the jugs.
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Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Has anyone heard from StormW in awhile?

We are not allowed to say that name in here anymore. but if you look closely at your quote you'll find out where that person is located.
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Quoting nofailsafe:


That's yesterday's model's apocalyptocane, right?


Nope, that's the 00z ECMWF.
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2583. MahFL
Quoting atmoaggie:
Ahh, a low of 71 F this am. Not the 67 F forecasted, but I'll take it, relative to the normal low of 78 F of late (with a dewpoint of 78 F).


Sheesh, weather forcasters, you can't beleive a word they say :P. It's always the same in Orange Park, especially during the winter, eg they forcast 32F and its 36F.
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Quoting scott39:
I think the biggest problem with most people(outside of WU bloggers) is that they dont have a clue that 10 to 14 days from now a Major Hurricane MAYBE in thier backyard. I know this is no excuse, but 99% of people outside "our world" never think it will never happen to them. Especially if they have never been through one before.Procrastination, poor planning and not being educated raises its ugly head EVERY TIME!

And once it does happen, they blame everyone else except themselves.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z ECMWF brings the system down to 964 mbs.



That's yesterday's model's apocalyptocane, right?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:



That would be an east coast strike with the ridging to the North.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5020
Has anyone heard from StormW in awhile?
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Excellent update from 28storms.com

Link
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2576. scott39
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good advice also for stuff like hurricane shutters etc. You may not be able to afford them all at once, but if you budget in the cost of one per month, then do 1/2 or one side at a time, it becomes possible. The problem is, it's hard to see the forest for the trees sometimes. When u have kids to feed and bills to pay, it's not always easy to see the "big picture" and organize that way....
I think the biggest problem with most people(outside of WU bloggers) is that they dont have a clue that 10 to 14 days from now a Major Hurricane MAYBE in thier backyard. I know this is no excuse, but 99% of people outside "our world" never think it will never happen to them. Especially if they have never been through one before.Procrastination, poor planning and not being educated raises its ugly head EVERY TIME!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z ECMWF brings the system down to 964 mbs.




Nasty, and look at the AB high.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5020
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Ahh, a low of 71 F this am. Not the 67 F forecasted, but I'll take it, relative to the normal low of 78 F of late (with a dewpoint of 78 F).

I see that Dallas was hot again this morning (on its way to another 100 plus day). From 1898 up until three weeks ago, Dallas had never seen a morning as warm as 86 degrees. It only dipped to that point this morning, the fourth time it's done so:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
757 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2011

...RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT DALLAS/FORT WORTH...
...ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED AT DALLAS/FORT
WORTH...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING AT DALLAS/FORT WORTH INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT WAS 86 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST 16TH OF 81 DEGREES SET IN 1934...1954 AND
2010.

THE 86 DEGREE LOW ALSO TIES THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY SET THREE TIMES EARLIER THIS
SUMMER...JULY 26TH...AUGUST 3RD AND AUGUST 4TH.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13442
Quoting presslord:


'bout time for me to start shopping for a new outfit ;-)

No thanks. Use that money to stock up on replaced goods.
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2571. MahFL
Where do you store 100 gallons of gas ?
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Quoting presslord:


well...the last one we had Floyd...and it was a nightmare...


I was sitting for hours in that mess when i lived in Myrtle Beach. Hugo was no fun as well. At least Myrtle has more ways to get out other than 501 now.
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Quoting Vincent4989:

Wow i thought your comment has IP trackers, because long, long ago someone said this which is very similar to yours with an additional IP tracker,
"I agree with Aussie, he good guy "


????
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Quoting kmanislander:
A quick stop in to post this new map which has piqued my interest.

This is the best surface convergence signature that 93L has ever had since coming off Africa to the best of my recollection. It could finally be making a serious attempt at producing a surface low and the circulation that goes with it. The 850,700 and 500 mb vorticity are all lined up nicely on the recent maps as well but no time to post them now.

If this trend continues this could mark a turning point in the history of this system. IMO the improved structure probably warrants an upgrade to 30% later today, assuming it holds.

We'll see. Back later.

Whoa.... that is pretty interesting. Anybody else look at the top end?

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21168
Blog update! Read for my opinion on the tropics today.
Gert weakens, 93L, new African wave our biggest threat. 8/16/11
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Quoting presslord:


South Carolina


shocking, I know I live in NMB. LOL

the gov is so inept in this state its pretty much a joke, from the local levels and up....
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00z ECMWF brings the system down to 964 mbs.

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Quoting Grothar:



Pretty much the same. The shame is that there are so many elderly and disabled people that it is either difficult or impossible for them to evacuate without assistance. Our local Red Cross started a "buddy system" in which people would register if they were incapable of evacuating on their own. Others would sign up and be responsible for bringing them to shelters or family members. Not a bad idea all in all.
Yeah. This the kind of thing I am talking about. However, I think some older people are "resistent" to admitting they need help - a pride issue? - so it behooves friends / family in a hurricane to get them out, somehow.

Press put it well; each situation is unique. But having a plan matters.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21168
Ahh, a low of 71 F this am. Not the 67 F forecasted, but I'll take it, relative to the normal low of 78 F of late (with a dewpoint of 78 F).
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting BahaHurican:
Press, you live fairly close to the coast, right? What are mandatory evacs like for your area? [gotta admit I'm more familiar w/ FL ones, since that's the place I'm most likely to have to deal w/ a hurricane outside my own home].


well...the last one we had Floyd...and it was a nightmare...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Upward motion is starting to return in the Atlantic. ITCZ has lifted north and increased in intensity.

Should help our African wave deal with dry air.



Yeah and check out that crazy African wave train following...yikes...
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Quoting K8eCane:




I admire you Press. Youre awesome

Wow i thought your comment has IP trackers, because long, long ago someone said this which is very similar to yours with an additional IP tracker,
"I agree with Aussie, he good guy (IP tracker) "
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GGEM likes the new wave



00z UKMET

120 hours


00z GFS
144

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Over 2550 comments...hint hint...time for a new blog update.
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Upward motion is starting to return in the Atlantic. ITCZ has lifted north and increased in intensity.

Should help our African wave deal with dry air.

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Not much out there right now as the wave is dealing with some dry and saharan dust but the probs have real gone up in the area as climo favors something popping as the cape verde season ramps up.

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I know some have mentioned hotels that jack up prices. So I would like to provide some balance to that.

We were returning from vacation in NC, just before Wilma was due to hit our area in S FL. We stopped in Savannah, GA, at a Hampton Inn and they knew we were worried. They bent over backwards to give us a lower rate than we deserved and made sure we had access to a computer so we could check on things. Now when we look for hotels to stay in, we always remember our experience at Hampton. And no, we don't work for them or any other hotel chain for that matter.

A friend of ours took back roads out of FL and she said as soon as she crossed the border into GA there were people stopping cars with FL license plates and inviting them to dinner at their church. She had 3 small children with her and said she cried tears of relief and joy because people were so kind and helpful.

Thank you people of GA for your kindness and generosity. Yes, you have to be wary these days, but you should also know there are many good people out there too. They just don't make the news.
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2554. WxLogic
Quoting atmoaggie:
You are correct that it is less dry. If we had a developed system, this prolly wouldn't bother it.
(After a second look.) For a developing system, ehh, may be moist enough, may not be.





Indeed... and so we shall see if 93L is strong enough to not get bothered by the "little stuff".
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4925
Quoting Stormchaser2007:






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Quoting scott39:
Being middle or low income is no excuse to me in the USA, for not planning and being prepared ahead of time. Its how your are raised and some good ole common horse sense. You dont have to have a closet full of food and supplies. You find good shelter to ride it out and stock up on supplies a little at a time. Go without that Ding Dong Mountain Dew or pack of cigs every now and then, so you can buy a flashlight, batteries, bandaids ect....
Good advice also for stuff like hurricane shutters etc. You may not be able to afford them all at once, but if you budget in the cost of one per month, then do 1/2 or one side at a time, it becomes possible. The problem is, it's hard to see the forest for the trees sometimes. When u have kids to feed and bills to pay, it's not always easy to see the "big picture" and organize that way....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21168
Quoting Cotillion:


Heh. Alas, do they still have gardens in drought-stricken areas of Texas? :(

I have a nice crop of basket straw.
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Quoting WxLogic:


Hmm... compared to the dry air that was/is present in PR... DR area sounding sure looks a lot more conductive for convective sustainability now than before.

As you said... this might just be too much dry air still but I'm not quite seeing that in SAT presentation.
You are correct that it is less dry. If we had a developed system, this prolly wouldn't bother it.
(After a second look.) For a developing system, ehh, may be moist enough, may not be.



Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting USAFwxguy:


Honestly, Hurricane Prep is an individual undertaking. There is not a template to follow, despite what we all here.

Some people think they are "prepared" if they run through the checklist and buy a bunch of stuff, stick it in a tub(s) and mark it "Hurricane Kit".

That doesn't usually cut it. Much of hurricane prep involves MENTAL prep... thinking things through ahead of time. What will you action be in the event of X, Y, or Z. How long will it take for you to EXECUTE YOUR PLAN? Buying stuff is typically just wasted energy and money. Staying aware will allow for enough time to buy stuff incrementally in support of YOUR PLAN, rather than to fill a checklist.

Can go hand in hand. Bit by bit, in the months prior to hurricane season, even if it's buying 1 extra bottle of water or an extra can of beans to put away. It all adds up, and as the season continues, the older stack can be used and replaced with fresh stock.
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2547. MahFL
Quoting LPStormspotter:


And the newscast said leave or face certain death.


There will always be "stupid" or unlucky people. I believe some decided to leave in the dark after the water came up, in some cases too late.
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2546. bwi
It's a long ways out, but it is a little unnerving that both GFS and ECMWF have a strong storm in about the same place (Southern Bahamas) at about the same time (240 hours). That's two runs in a row for EC with about the same solution.
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2543. WxLogic
Quoting atmoaggie:
Moist enough for what?

Enough dry air there to hinder sustained convection...


Hmm... compared to the dry air that was/is present in PR... DR area sounding sure looks a lot more conductive for convective sustainability now than before.

As you said... this might just be too much dry air still but I'm not quite seeing that in SAT presentation.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4925
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2541. MahFL
Quoting angiest:
...and they are hopefully hedging for a stronger storm than forecast....


I don't think officials "hedge" for a stronger surge, they tell it as forcast. It would cause more uneeded evacuees. Of course if the expected surge is 2 feet below your house, you have to make the decision to stay or leave, that's your choice.
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Quoting MahFL:


Where do you store 250 gallons of water, and how much did it cost to buy ?



I have a spare bedroom that we use to store our supplies. I've been purchasing the gallons of water 2 cases at a time I think they run around $4.00 at Sams for Kentwood, 6 gallons in a case. I also have 55 gallon water barrels that can be filled in no time. They key to being well prepared, and not broke is to buy it over time, when there is no threat. I have dehydrated /canned food, propane and camp stoves, generator, 100 gallons of gas, huge medical kit. Enough batteries to power a thrid world country. Water not exposed to light will last years.
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Quoting Grothar:
Here is a link for the Florida Evacuation maps. I think it is a good idea for people living in different areas to post the links on here. It could come in handy some day. Just click on your County, and the the details show up

Link

Do you know where I can find an AL evac. route map?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.