Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hunkerdown:
Before you post things like this, please read up on the significance of Hebert's Box. It means nothing if a wave or invest passes through it. There is some disagreement as to what level the cyclose must be at when it passes through to "qualify". Some say it must be a major, some feel just a hurricane, and some feel it is just classified by definition as a "tropical cyclone".

"The Hebert Box was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert. This former NWS & NHC forecaster found many major Hurricanes that hit South Florida had to first pass through these boxes. The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida Peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.
If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties.
got it ive been reprimanded i take full responsiblility in the joke i was trying to make..ease up Francis
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1737. Patrap
A look back at Hurricane Gustav's First feeder Band from the French Quarter.


Presslord,,the Church looks familiar ?



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting tropicfreak:


We got an inch here from the remnants of Fay. A few other notable storms that I can remember was Hanna and Ernesto, which caused flooding problems though not as bad as Gaston. Hanna came and gone quite quickly. I only remember bits and pieces of Floyd though.
I hope we are all spared this year from a major Hurricane.I know luck can only hold out for so ong and someone is gonna get hit.I pray whomever it is will be safe.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Blink fast enough, and he stands still. :)
ok, how many people tried this ???
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Hope you don't lose sleep over this!


LOL!!!
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Looks like 93l going over part of heberts box /cough lol
Before you post things like this, please read up on the significance of Hebert's Box. It means nothing if a wave or invest passes through it. There is some disagreement as to what level the cyclose must be at when it passes through to "qualify". Some say it must be a major, some feel just a hurricane, and some feel it is just classified by definition as a "tropical cyclone".

"The Hebert Box was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert. This former NWS & NHC forecaster found many major Hurricanes that hit South Florida had to first pass through these boxes. The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida Peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.
If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties."
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Quoting nymore:
After getting off work and reading the blog written by Dr. Masters I have a problem with it. The problem is with the headline New York City sets all time 1 day rainfall record. This headline is completely untrue while JFK airport set a record with 7.80 inches NYC did not. Records at JFK go back to 1948 while records at Central Park the official location for NYC go back to 1869. The rainfall record is 8.28 inches set on Sept. 23 1882. I hope this was an honest mistake by Dr. Master and hope he will correct it.


Hope you don't lose sleep over this!
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Thats a lot of rain.I remember when Fay (TS) went across Florida so many times and then Mobile we got a good bit of rain from her.I cant remember how much it was.


We got an inch here from the remnants of Fay. A few other notable storms that I can remember was Hanna and Ernesto, which caused flooding problems though not as bad as Gaston. Hanna came and gone quite quickly. I only remember bits and pieces of Floyd though.
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Good Evening All,

Return from a short trip to the see the Grand Kids and get home to find the tropics fired up while I was off-netted.

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1729. Patrap
Wasnt OZ in Dolly at the Hotel Wind Surfing with his Gear ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Good thing we didnt have the internet and waterloop in the 70s all people would be talking about is how the colors keep poping.. wow dude did you see that one!!
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Quoting presslord:


now....Dolly was stacked...pushed mounds of water....some boobs were partying on the shore as she came abreast...constituted real stupidity...she broke up over the hills...racked up some damage, though....


But mostly a bust.
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1726. nymore
After getting off work and reading the blog written by Dr. Masters I have a problem with it. The problem is with the headline New York City sets all time 1 day rainfall record. This headline is completely untrue while JFK airport set a record with 7.80 inches NYC did not. Records at JFK go back to 1948 while records at Central Park the official location for NYC go back to 1869. The rainfall record is 8.28 inches set on Sept. 23 1882. I hope this was an honest mistake by Dr. Master and hope he will correct it.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Blink fast enough, and he stand still. :)
tried that and all I saw was visions of IKE in 2008
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Some areas here in VA are abnormally dry, but we never got above a moderate drought here, but we got several storms, some of them were slow moving. Now the Richmond area is now near normal, about 2-3" below normal which isn't too bad.

We don't need another Isabel and Gaston(2004, caused flooding rains across the metro area, we got 10" in like 3 hours!)
Thats a lot of rain.I remember when Fay (TS) went across Florida so many times and then Mobile we got a good bit of rain from her.I cant remember how much it was.
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Quoting caneswatch:


HA. I gotta see this......
Are you on some need to know list? Otherwise us old OSS people are sworn to secrecy. Next time Grothar is on ask him if he was involved with the OSS.
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93L is sleeping but whats wake here up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
The problem with humidity, heat and there effects on weather is probably not that simple and cut dry. In reality humidity above 70% will allow the atmosphere to become saturated enough to precipitate at which point humidity then becomes 100%. Strong dew point depressions lead to collapsing thunderstorms and steeping mid level lapse rates, however these lapse rates are known as dry adiabatic. As air rises it cools an when the air parcel is cooler then the surrounding environment it continues to rise, however as the parcel gains altitude the atmosphere cools as well and then there is no more difference between parcel and environment and the parcel becomes stabilized. If the parcel is warmer than the environment this is the dry adiabatic lapse rate at which case the parcel is falling, like rain, or like air on the leeward side of a mountain where the atmosphere appears to warm up compared to the windward side where the air rises.

All in all, I don't think heat is a cause, more so its the dry air causing the air to warm up and therefore that is the problem, dry air is the problem over hot air.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It's kind of a double-edged sword. On one hand, high temperatures are usually accompanied by strong subsidence, which promotes sinking air and inhibits convection. On the other hand, continuous cloudless heat significantly warms the ocean, thereby promoting instability whenever the dry air is eradicated.
At what temperature is the second part initiated? I don't know these things just watching weather over land not water through the years.
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Quoting lottotexas:
please put a leash on that dog; he's getting me dizzzzzy.


Blink fast enough, and he stands still. :)
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Quoting twincomanche:
Yes. and I have a e mail to prove it.


HA. I gotta see this......
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Quoting angiest:

No that shows it raining on the east side of Houston again. :P
way on the east side. none for u or me.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Correct, I was referring to the lack of expansion of the upper levels in relation to the lower levels. Emily never seemed to mature proportionately. Really!!!


*wink wink*
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32.6n63.0w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Gert's_12amGMT_ATCF
32.7n62.9w, 33.9n62.2w are now the most recent positions
Starting 15August_12amGMT and ending 16August_12amGMT

The 4 short line-segments represent TS.Gert's path and
the longest line-segment is its straightline projection.

TropicalStormGert's travel-speed was 15.3mph(24.7k/h) on a heading of 25.9degrees(NNE)
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Gert was headed toward passage over Melasveitarvegur,Iceland ~1week6hours from now

Copy&paste 29.6n63.2w-30.6n63.4w, 30.6n63.4w-31.5n63.3w, 31.5n63.3w-32.7n62.9w, 32.7n62.9w-33.9n62.2w, bda, rkv, 32.7n62.9w-64.41n22.04w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 15August_6pmGMT)
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Quoting angiest:

No that shows it raining on the east side of Houston again. :P


No rain in my part of Houston either :o(
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
Quoting twincomanche:
Just a little theory on a slow night. Instead of high temperatures causing more activity it might be inhibiting it. The moisture has a finite limit (100%) and the outbreak of weather is when moisture gets to 100% or thereabouts when it is hotter there is less outbreaks because there are less times when this critical condition is reached.


It's kind of a double-edged sword. On one hand, high temperatures are usually accompanied by strong subsidence, which promotes sinking air and inhibits convection. On the other hand, continuous cloudless heat significantly warms the ocean, thereby promoting instability whenever the dry air is eradicated.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Did Grothar say you could use his word? :|
Yes. and I have a e mail to prove it.
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1709. angiest

Quoting lottotexas:
and still no rain in Houston
No that shows it raining on the east side of Houston again. :P
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't be so dirty.

...Then again, the fact that I was able to immediately discern your intent probably speaks more ill of me than it does you.


Correct, I was referring to the lack of expansion of the upper levels in relation to the lower levels. Emily never seemed to mature proportionately. Really!!!
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1706. Patrap
15 days a really long Putt
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting Patrap:
Diz was what was rattling the masses earlier today.

Whoppa Choppa




and still no rain in Houston
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At 1800 UTC, 15 August 2011, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL93) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 13.6°N and 59.2°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 19 kt at a bearing of 275 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb.



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Quoting PcolaDan:


Did Grothar say you could use his word? :|
please put a leash on that dog; he's getting me dizzzzzy.
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1702. Patrap
Diz was what was rattling the masses earlier today.

Whoppa Choppa




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting HurricaneNewb:


ouch the showercurtains JFV dont even go there


LOL
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Looks like this year it's storms of the Carribean/Mexico and FISH AFTER the islands. Recurves a lot this year. Guess we will see what the rest of the season holds.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
93L going to sleep tonight...



Another Emily....yawning
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Just a little theory on a slow night. Instead of high temperatures causing more activity it might be inhibiting it. The moisture has a finite limit (100%) and the outbreak of weather is when moisture gets to 100% or thereabouts when it is hotter there is less outbreaks because there are less times when this critical condition is reached.
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1697. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting KoritheMan:


showercurtains.jpg


ouch the showercurtains JFV dont even go there
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Who is Herbert? And what is this box you speak of?
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1676
Quoting twincomanche:
Taz give it up. I am entitled to my opinion, been around for a while and am not a troll. Don't be a twit.


Did Grothar say you could use his word? :|
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Got me thinking...
no
never mind


Don't be so dirty.

...Then again, the fact that I was able to immediately discern your intent probably speaks more ill of me than it does you.
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Quoting HurricaneNewb:
Looks like 93l going over part of heberts box /cough lol


showercurtains.jpg
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Quoting angiest:

Emily wasn't stacked but Harvey may be? Hmmm...


Got me thinking...
no
never mind
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93L going to sleep tonight...

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Looks like 93l going over part of heberts box /cough lol
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
You are right about conseuences.And I hope Texas will get sweet rekief soon.I pray them every night that they will get rain very soon.


Some areas here in VA are abnormally dry, but we never got above a moderate drought here, but we got several storms, some of them were slow moving. Now the Richmond area is now near normal, about 2-3" below normal which isn't too bad.

We don't need another Isabel and Gaston(2004, caused flooding rains across the metro area, we got 10" in like 3 hours!)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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