Gert brushing Bermuda; a new all-time 1-day rainfall record for NYC

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

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Tropical Storm Gert, the 7th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Gert's formation on August 14 marks the 4th earliest date for the season's 7th storm. Only 2005, 1995, and 1936 have had an earlier formation of the season's 7th storm. Gert will pass very close to Bermuda today, but thus far the island has had no wind or rain from Gert, with top winds at the Bermuda Airport of just 9 mph as of 10 am EDT. Radar out of Bermuda shows the rains from Gert are staying just offshore, moving northward, parallel to the island. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and has found that Gert has not changed much in intensity since last night. Top surface winds seen by their SFMR instrument this morning as of 10am EDT were 48 mph, though higher winds of 58 mph that may be erroneous due to rain interference were measured. It currently appears that Gert's northerly motion will keep virtually all of the storm's rains just offshore from from Bermuda. Gert should not trouble any land areas after moving past Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Gert from the Bermuda radar .

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance we've been tracking over the past few days in the open Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, Invest 93L, has regenerated a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and will bring heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles today and Tuesday as it moves westwards through the islands at 15 - 20 mph. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could begin to organize over the next few days as it tracks across the Caribbean. The latest 06Z run of the NOGAPS model is showing weak development of 93L once it reaches the western Caribbean, with a track over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Stay tuned.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the past 2 days from the Long Island, NY radar.

New York City sets an all-time 1-day rainfall record
A long series of "training" thunderstorms that each moved along the same path deluged the New York City and Newark areas yesterday, smashing an all-time 1-day rainfall record at New York City's JFK Airport, which recorded 7.80 inches of rain. It was the most rain at JFK since record keeping began in 1948. The previous record was a 6.3" deluge on June 30, 1984. New York City's official measuring site, Central Park, got 5.81" yesterday, the fifth wettest day on record there. The 6.40" that fell on Newark, NJ yesterday was that city's 2nd heaviest 1-day rainfall in history, next to the 6.73" that fell on November 3, 1977.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting bigeasystormcaster:
93L OBSERVATION & FORECAST:

93L appears to be diminishing and now for good. It's outflow is being disrupted by a large scale ULL to the NE, very dry, dusty air to the west, southern wind shear and is generally moving to swiftly to the west to develop. Earlier it had a mid-level circulation which has now fallen apart along with the concentrated area of t'storms it had earlier today.

FORECAST:

Generally undeveloped disturbances entering the Carribean Sea do not develop at all. Very few ever develop further west because their weakness forces a more southern track into Central America or at best the Yucatan Peninsula which finally destroys the system altogether. Once this system gets past northern Venezuela I expect a turn to the SW toward Panama/Costa Rica region of the the SW Carribean Sea where the system will get caught up in the EPAC ITCZ and/or desolve.
HaHaHaHaHa ! You are too funny.
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1787. Patrap
Quoting thelmores:


Unless it takes more of a track like the BAMM model's, which has 93l just clipping the Yucatan, and entering the gulf...... thus not disrupting the core feature, and hitting the bath water of the gulf.....

Several, including myself, warned that 93L could become a player in the western Car...... many were saying poof! LOL


I bet by Sat we see some Sqigglies maybe Thel ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting Patrap:


Nothing like the first un fer sure.

Esp when ya young.

Betsy was my First.


I was 5.5


Dang your an Ol' Timer! Camille was my first and was 4 and in Gulfort, MS
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Quoting Patrap:


Nothing like the first un fer sure.

Esp when ya young.

Betsy was my First.


I was 5.5




Mine was Fran, but I was 10 months old. The first I can remember distinctly was Isabel.
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Quoting TheNewGuy:


The most likely area of development is in the Western Caribbean.

Doesn't have too much time until it runs into mexico.


Unless it takes more of a track like the BAMM model's, which has 93l just clipping the Yucatan, and entering the gulf...... thus not disrupting the core feature, and hitting the bath water of the gulf.....

Several, including myself, warned that 93L could become a player in the western Car...... many were saying poof! LOL
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meanwhile... the nam hasnt given up hope
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 870
1782. angiest

Quoting dfwstormwatch:
looks like the doomcasters are on...
No need to be a doomcaster when the models are providing the DOOM.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1781. Patrap
Quoting CHinFL:

I lived just North of Pensacola- my 1st hurricane I went through- the paper mill shut down and no school for 2 weeks- a nice summer for a little elementary school boy! How dumb I was- I looked forward to the things lol


Nothing like the first un fer sure.

Esp when ya young.

Betsy was my First.


I was 5.5


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
1779. beell
Quoting thedawnawakening3:
The problem with humidity, heat and there effects on weather is probably not that simple and cut dry. In reality humidity above 70% will allow the atmosphere to become saturated enough to precipitate at which point humidity then becomes 100%. Strong dew point depressions lead to collapsing thunderstorms and steeping mid level lapse rates, however these lapse rates are known as dry adiabatic. As air rises it cools an when the air parcel is cooler then the surrounding environment it continues to rise, however as the parcel gains altitude the atmosphere cools as well and then there is no more difference between parcel and environment and the parcel becomes stabilized. If the parcel is warmer than the environment this is the dry adiabatic lapse rate at which case the parcel is falling, like rain, or like air on the leeward side of a mountain where the atmosphere appears to warm up compared to the windward side where the air rises.

All in all, I don't think heat is a cause, more so its the dry air causing the air to warm up and therefore that is the problem, dry air is the problem over hot air.


Backwards.
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looks like the doomcasters are on...
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 870
Quoting Clearwater1:


Thanks, that make much more since.


Since what?
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1776. Patrap
Quoting BA:


check the windfield on that baby, pulling NE winds all the way up into TX...standard flow is SE in the summer


Datz a Big un..with well.

One can NEVER Discount the 400-1000 year storm.

I had a converstaion once with Ivor Van Heerden formerly from LSU Hurricane Center, Director, at a NOLA Conference and he showed us the Maps from where the 17th St. Canal Levee failed at the toe of the sheet pilings for that I-wall design.

I was a Half mile WEST of the breech the morning of Katrina's Landfall,,and it slipped and failed on the peat and other debris from a Larger than K Hurricane, 470-525 years ago from the sampling.

Forenic's can show us much Ive come to learn.

Itsa Fascinating stuff no doubt.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
1775. angiest

Quoting presslord:


there is only one stormtop......all that glitters isn't gold...
Not all those who wander are lost.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1774. CHinFL
Quoting Patrap:


Here are some really cool radar loops of Hurricane Frederic's landfall at the Alabama/Mississippi border on September 12, 1979. The loops are from the Slidell, Louisiana WSR-57 radar. The first is a long-range loop, the second a short-range close up. Frederic made landfall as a strong Category Three with sustained winds of 130mph and a minimum central pressure of 943mb(27.85in). At the time, Frederic was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history.


I lived just North of Pensacola- my 1st hurricane I went through- the paper mill shut down and no school for 2 weeks- a nice summer for a little elementary school boy! How dumb I was- I looked forward to the things lol
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Just like its predecessors, 93L is dying. This time, it is hard to blame the shear...so clearly it is the dry air.
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Quoting angiest:
How many variants of stormtop are currently in circulation on this blog?


there is only one stormtop......all that glitters isn't gold...
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Quoting Clearwater1:
About 8 days out, the 1800 gfs has a decent sized system moving nw across Hispaniola. Could that be our 93l? I think the NAM is hinting at the same thing, but the run is not as long. (3 days)

Link

Link


No, not 93L which will be below Haiti in less than 3 days.
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Quoting Patrap:
Global View

Note the West Pac Volume compared to the Atlantic.


Dats a Big ol Pond.



Man....... that's like shooting fish in a barrel! LOL
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That convective burst at 43w 12n is that monsoon? or something trying to get going?
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Quoting twincomanche:
Are you on some need to know list? Otherwise us old OSS people are sworn to secrecy. Next time Grothar is on ask him if he was involved with the OSS.
OSS = ? Octogenarian
Suffleboard Squad?
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Quoting angiest:

That is going to be the wave just moving off Africa today.


Thanks, that make much more since.
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Good evening

93L is now passing thru 61W at 13.6 N or tracking due West at 270 degrees. This will take it between St Vincent and St. Lucia overnight.

No sign yet of any resurgence of deep convection.

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1765. angiest
How many variants of stormtop are currently in circulation on this blog?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
93L OBSERVATION & FORECAST:

93L appears to be diminishing and now for good. It's outflow is being disrupted by a large scale ULL to the NE, very dry, dusty air to the west, southern wind shear and is generally moving to swiftly to the west to develop. Earlier it had a mid-level circulation which has now fallen apart along with the concentrated area of t'storms it had earlier today.

FORECAST:

Generally undeveloped disturbances entering the Carribean Sea do not develop at all. Very few ever develop further west because their weakness forces a more southern track into Central America or at best the Yucatan Peninsula which finally destroys the system altogether. Once this system gets past northern Venezuela I expect a turn to the SW toward Panama/Costa Rica region of the the SW Carribean Sea where the system will get caught up in the EPAC ITCZ and/or desolve.
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1762. angiest

Quoting Clearwater1:
About 8 days out, the 1800 gfs has a decent sized system moving nw across Hispaniola. Could that be our 93l? I think the NAM is hinting at the same thing, but the run is not as long. (3 days)

Link

Link
That is going to be the wave just moving off Africa today.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting thelmores:


Not sure if Press did, but I sure as heck did! LOL
A storm track depicted here would not be good for the SC coast...... a big problem is that water could be pushed into Winyah Bay, causing significant flooding inland besides the normal coastal flooding. I just want a dinky storm, even depression drop about 6-10" of rain...... I will pass on anything else! Very few Home-Owner policy writers around here as is....... and the last storm to even remotely cause damage in Myrtle Beach was Hugo..... and damage in Myrtle was relatively minor as compared to folks down the coast.......

But the good news, if we are bulls-eye this far out, no way in hell it comes this way! LOL



What did I miss?! Can one of you fine folks repost? mucho thankso
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TS Gert on her downfall, she has her Circulation exposed now, and will continue to weaken in the coming day...
Harvey will likely come of Either the system south of Cuba, or 93L...

Irene if it works out would be 93L, or the African Wave,

and if the other two form, then Jose, would be the African wave...

No gurantees for any of them, for all we know none will develop, and well still be waiting for harvey, though with three different possible systems, and two prime, we will likely, at least, see 1 Storm...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1759. Patrap


Here are some really cool radar loops of Hurricane Frederic's landfall at the Alabama/Mississippi border on September 12, 1979. The loops are from the Slidell, Louisiana WSR-57 radar. The first is a long-range loop, the second a short-range close up. Frederic made landfall as a strong Category Three with sustained winds of 130mph and a minimum central pressure of 943mb(27.85in). At the time, Frederic was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
About 8 days out, the 1800 gfs has a decent sized system moving nw across Hispaniola. Could that be our 93l? I think the NAM is hinting at the same thing, but the run is not as long. (3 days)

Link

Link
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1757. BA
Quoting Patrap:


check the windfield on that baby, pulling NE winds all the way up into TX...standard flow is SE in the summer
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Has press seen the 18 Z GFS yet?

Looks like so:


;-)


Not sure if Press did, but I sure as heck did! LOL
A storm track depicted here would not be good for the SC coast...... a big problem is that water could be pushed into Winyah Bay, causing significant flooding inland besides the normal coastal flooding. I just want a dinky storm, even depression drop about 6-10" of rain...... I will pass on anything else! Very few Home-Owner policy writers around here as is....... and the last storm to even remotely cause damage in Myrtle Beach was Hugo..... and damage in Myrtle was relatively minor as compared to folks down the coast.......

But the good news, if we are bulls-eye this far out, no way in hell it comes this way! LOL
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Quoting twincomanche:
Ask him about the OSS.


Just to add to Conner's comment, he probably knows Gro better than any of you.

The three of us have been friends for years :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
Quoting twincomanche:
Ask him about the OSS.


The Older Senior Society?
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:


I went through Katrina while living on the MS gulf coast... that was HELL ON EARTH!!!
I know that had to be the scariest thing you have been through.Glad you made it through.I hope your loss of property wasnt too bad.
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Quoting thedawnawakening3:
The problem with humidity, heat and there effects on weather is probably not that simple and cut dry. In reality humidity above 70% will allow the atmosphere to become saturated enough to precipitate at which point humidity then becomes 100%. Strong dew point depressions lead to collapsing thunderstorms and steeping mid level lapse rates, however these lapse rates are known as dry adiabatic. As air rises it cools an when the air parcel is cooler then the surrounding environment it continues to rise, however as the parcel gains altitude the atmosphere cools as well and then there is no more difference between parcel and environment and the parcel becomes stabilized. If the parcel is warmer than the environment this is the dry adiabatic lapse rate at which case the parcel is falling, like rain, or like air on the leeward side of a mountain where the atmosphere appears to warm up compared to the windward side where the air rises.

All in all, I don't think heat is a cause, more so its the dry air causing the air to warm up and therefore that is the problem, dry air is the problem over hot air.


Very true.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Ivan hit just to the East of us in Orange Beach Ala.I am in Mobile.They said it was gonna hit Mobile then right before coming ashore it made a mad dash to the EAST of us.I was terrified of Ivan.I lived through Fredrick in 1979.That was awful.


I went through Katrina while living on the MS gulf coast... that was HELL ON EARTH!!!
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Quoting hunkerdown:
what was a joke to you could have been taken as fact to somebody who didn't know.

fact or none this site is not Gospel ,, always and i repeat always follow the NHC.. for anykind of info on storms forming and or in your area do not take any of this info on this site from bloggers for more than just blogs and guess/s as to were storms may go..
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Quoting tropicfreak:


By far though the worst storm for me was Isabel, and I can tell that yours was Ivan.
Ivan hit just to the East of us in Orange Beach Ala.I am in Mobile.They said it was gonna hit Mobile then right before coming ashore it made a mad dash to the EAST of us.I was terrified of Ivan.I lived through Fredrick in 1979.That was awful.
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1747. Patrap
Quoting presslord:


Very cool!!


And a very Empty NOLA fer sure.


She was in the Street for all that footage press.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting twincomanche:
At what temperature is the second part initiated? I don't know these things just watching weather over land not water through the years.


I'm not sure that there is an exact temperature at which instability becomes maximized over the ocean. However, I will say that instability, even over land, is driven largely by temperature gradients. Thus, temperature differences drive convection, all parameters being equal.
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Quoting Patrap:
A look back at Hurricane Gustav's First feeder Band from the French Quarter.


Presslord,,the Church looks familiar ?





Very cool!!
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Quoting HurricaneNewb:
got it ive been reprimanded i take full responsiblility in the joke i was trying to make..ease up Francis
what was a joke to you could have been taken as fact to somebody who didn't know.
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Gert ain't lookin well. Does he still have the CDO some one mentioned.
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Quoting Patrap:
Wasnt OZ in Dolly at the Hotel Wind Surfing with his Gear ?
Yes, he was. Dolly "looked" excellent and well formed as she passed over Grand Cayman. Enormous amount of rain and very gusty winds BUT no closed LLC until right after she passed and just before crossing into the GOM.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
I hope we are all spared this year from a major Hurricane.I know luck can only hold out for so ong and someone is gonna get hit.I pray whomever it is will be safe.


By far though the worst storm for me was Isabel, and I can tell that yours was Ivan.
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Quoting twincomanche:
Are you on some need to know list? Otherwise us old OSS people are sworn to secrecy. Next time Grothar is on ask him if he was involved with the OSS.


Need to know list? Where does that come from? BTW, me and Grothar talk often, so I know plenty, bub.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
Quoting hunkerdown:
Before you post things like this, please read up on the significance of Hebert's Box. It means nothing if a wave or invest passes through it. There is some disagreement as to what level the cyclose must be at when it passes through to "qualify". Some say it must be a major, some feel just a hurricane, and some feel it is just classified by definition as a "tropical cyclone".

"The Hebert Box was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert. This former NWS & NHC forecaster found many major Hurricanes that hit South Florida had to first pass through these boxes. The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida Peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.
If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties.
got it ive been reprimanded i take full responsiblility in the joke i was trying to make..ease up Francis
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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